Change a coming

[Walsingham]

I've beeen spending much of today pondering the question of change. Change is a driving factor in much of what makes profit. But it is also much of what makes loss.

 

What would you say are going to be the greatest areas of change in the next ten years? They can be regions, technologies, or cultures. Cut loose!

[Guard Dog]

Wireless/Celluar is going to see a massive change in the next 5 years. We just have UMTS working in most places now and we are already planning on rolling out LTE in 2009. That will be as big a change over UMTS as GSM was over IS-136 or as you guys call it "digital". We are already hitting wireless speeds of 1 Mbs everywhere now and sometimes as high as 3.6 Mbps. LTE will allow us to pool channels so we'll see channels that are 15 MHz wide with HSDPA so data rates will be around 60 Mbps plus with full implementation of VoIP it will be the end of surface circuit switching. Coupled with direct to cell fiber optic access we will see the beginning of the end of wire line telephony.

[Monte Carlo]

China's consumerism will continue apace, seeing even more acute price rises for staple commodities, especially foodstuffs. Western food will become increasingly modish in the next five years. The hitherto dairy-light Chinese diet will embrace cheese, yoghurt and probably even tiramisu, which is good news if you are a dairy farmer. Bad news if you like tiramisu.

 

The EU will start to fray at the edges, like a big messy carpet you never really wanted in the first place. Turkey will join, brilliant news for Euro-sceptics as the project will finally become meaningless (er, not least because 75% of Turkey isn't in Europe). Europe will tentatively embrace small government whilst, ironically, America will tentatively dip it's toe into slightly bigger government .

 

The politics of oil will mean that the West will finally get serious about an alternative. The Market will provide, and the resulting collapse of oil prices will destabilise the House of Saud with consequences for the region probably best explained by some policy wonk better qualified than I.

 

Lastly, turn-based isometric computer games will become retro-cool, leading to a rash of superbly executed CRPGs. OK, the pollution-free superfuel prediction is more likely, but a man can dream.

Edited June 30, 2008 by Monte Carlo

[taks]

Lastly, turn-based isometric computer games will become retro-cool, leading to a rash of superbly executed CRPGs.

ya had me up till here... and lost me.

 

OK, the pollution-free superfuel prediction is more likely, but a man can dream.

but then ya got me back.

 

taks

[taks]

Wireless/Celluar is going to see a massive change in the next 5 years. We just have UMTS working in most places now and we are already planning on rolling out LTE in 2009. That will be as big a change over UMTS as GSM was over IS-136 or as you guys call it "digital". We are already hitting wireless speeds of 1 Mbs everywhere now and sometimes as high as 3.6 Mbps. LTE will allow us to pool channels so we'll see channels that are 15 MHz wide with HSDPA so data rates will be around 60 Mbps plus with full implementation of VoIP it will be the end of surface circuit switching. Coupled with direct to cell fiber optic access we will see the beginning of the end of wire line telephony.

yup... i'm already thinking about OFDM, btw, to adapt the work i did on my dissertation (which was all CDMA).

 

the high-speed wireless thing is probably the key to getting to the "singularity" that kurzweil and others are thinking is on the horizon.

 

taks

[Meshugger]

Geopolitics: The EU will become a bigger powerhouse with more centralization of power. However, it will also be pretty inefficient due to beaurocracy. There will also be a larger rift between the people and the politicians, with several extreme-moments getting more votes than before. These extreme groups will abuse issues on immigration and other social problems, since the political correctness has driven any sensible debate out of the window. Turkey will not be a part of the EU within the next 15 years (This is just an assumption, from my perspective from being there, and from a turk that has married a friend of mine. He left Turkey due to the rise of anti-western, pro-islamic sentiments of the general population in Istanbul, of all places)

 

China and other East Asian countries will continue to be westernized in terms of popular culture, but democracy will still be in the backseat as long as there's a sense of security and economic prosperity. Due to the rapid transit of culture, expect culturally reactionistic groups getting more influence. The same goes to Russia, where "democracy-lite" is the way.

 

India will also continue with becoming more westernized, but will have more trouble with the arising differences between the classes of society. Pakistan will remain a totalitarian government as long as there's a clash between the Sunni's and Shia's.

 

USA will have a smaller recession due to the politics of the current administration, or at least will get the blame. The next president will have a lot to do in order to maintain the american economical and cultural hegemony. With the situation becoming more stable in the middle east, as in not full-scale civil war, the problems will be focused on more domestic issues. State rights vs. the federal government will continue, as i expect someone that is Ron Paul-lite will be elected within the next 20 years. Culturally, east will meet the west more, but the american way will have the upper hand.

 

The Middle East will be volatile as long as the neighbouring countries don't accept the state of Israel. The situation in Iraq will be difficult, but will calm down. Local governments will become more powerful in the Kurdish north, the Sunni triangle around Bagdad and the Shia south. Expect Turkey and Iran to continue to try to incluence politics there, as with Syria, Iran and Israel in Lebanon.

 

Africa will continue to be god's forsaken continent. Sad but true.

 

South America will become more rightist as a reaction against Chavez. However, problems between the left and the right will continue due to scandals with drug lords and such. Also, one has to remember that the rightist-governments have been proven to be heavily supported by Washington, which means that they will be met with high sceptisism.

 

Technology: As taks and Guard Dog stated, the Internet and wireless communication in general will press forward with VoIP and IPTV becoming the norm. Expect most new households to have atleast 100Mbit fibre-optic connection. Mobile phones will continue to press to become more like multimedia devices. Alternative fuel source will be tested and some might get more recognition, but the oil will be the king of the hill for the next 50 years. Processors in CPUs and GPUs will have more dedicated components for A.I., rendering and movie decoding. Expect processors with up to 128 cores within the next 10 years, with hardware implementation of seperate vector processors, stream processors and 3D sound dsps (Good luck developing am efficient compiler to that baby).

 

Fusion will still be difficult to get to work efficiently, but i expect a powerplant to be built in Europe or Japan within the next 25 years.

 

 

Bah, information overflow. I need a break and continue later.

[theslug]

In 10 years the lizard people will make their presence known to the world. They will have led the charge in advances in information systems and how data is gathered, processed, and interpreted so they can better enslave the public.

 

Both natural and man inspired disaster will continue to ravage various regions around the world. Things like drought, acid rain, and other long term problems will drive populations into surrounding areas causing massive crowding and scarcity of resources. This will cause greater social-political strife leading to greater demand in environmental recovery and resource efficiency.

 

By now the middle east will have become a nuclear playground. Israel will be shattered but still have a central government intact. The nations surrounding them will be in constant conflict. If the radiation hasn't killed you, lack of clean food and water or the local militias will. Seeing the growing instability and U.S presence in the Middle East, China and Russia join an alliance together to put further pressure on the Western World for competing resources. Both nations will have become financial power houses and influenced greatly by democracy and western culture. The further they move toward democracy the more the U.S moves away from it.

 

Japan will have been developing their military and short range nuclear ballistics in secret in response to China's growing strength. Their economy will have leveled off but remain stagnant after their recession. A lack of land and devastated agriculture and fishing populations will cause massive food shortages which will strain their systems but they will remain a technological leader securing their economic status in the world.

 

Surprisingly Madagascar will become the main exporter of domesticated Lemur in the world. It will also benefit from an immense tourist population who enjoy the exotic jungle coast and resorts centered around lemur sanctuaries.

[random n00b]

That the outline for Paul Verhoeven's latest flick? Sounds neat!

[SteveThaiBinh]

Africa may have been forsaken by God, but not by the Chinese. Expect Africa to be the battleground between 'Western' and Chinese views of economics and political systems.

 

The Middle East will continue in its present state of, if you like, stable volatility. This will be so even if the political leaderships of more countries recognise the state of Israel - public opinion will still despise its existence. I think there's a good chance a Palestinian State will come into being in the next ten years, and much depends on the relationship between that state and Saudi Arabia.

 

Obsidian Entertainment will overtake Bethesda and Bioware as the major producer of quality Western RPGs.

[theslug]

Malthus will be right some day! I swear it.

[Azarkon]

Man, you guys are pessimistic about the US.

[Azarkon]

As for the game industry, I expect the following:

 

* More developers moving onto consoles.

* More MMOs.

* More indies/hobbyists entering the scene.

* Some shift of focus from eye candy.

* Blizzard making out like a bandit.

[Colrom]

Outline:

 

Key Factors

1. Population growth

2. Resource depletion and resource limits - especially carbon based and nuclear fission based energy

3. Global warming - climate change

4. Christian millenium prophesies

5. Development of computer machinery - robots

6. Development of bio technology and bio machinery

7. Space power

 

Possible Key Events

1. Population depletion - by disease or starvation or war - planed or willfully allowed or accidental

2. Robots impact productivity - measured how? - energy efficiency of robots may be a factor

3. Resource aquisition wars - nations and even businesses and political groups arm themselves - bio and nuclear.

4. Insurgencies - tyrannies - assymetric warfare - including space systems - resource utilization struggles.

5. Religious wars.

6. New social structures continue to develop - neo feudal system?

7. Robots reduce the need for a social contract and the consent of the governed - new serf class begins to form

8. Expanded space utilization - especially military - Permanent moon base planned

9. More unexpected consequences of more desperate acts.

 

 

Ten years is not very long in the scale of things so it will probably take 50 years for some of this to occur.

Edited July 1, 2008 by Colrom

[Humodour]

I predict a bunch of people will predict gloom and doom and then be generally forgotten about 10 years later as the timeframe they gave passes with at most hisses and whimpers.

[Walsingham]

Loving all the feedback. Sorry it took so long to respond. I wanted time to read this properly with a good coffee.

 

I see a division between tech and politics in the feedback.

 

Tech:

 

1. Lemurs. Lots and lots of lemurs.

2. Non-oil energy

3. Wireless comms speed increases

 

Geopolitics:

 

1. China growing

2. Mideast shrinking in economic importance

3. Growth of democracy lite

4. Mideast reform

 

~

 

To me it seems there are clear interlinks between tech and some of these changes. Viz the Mideast changes and growth of non-oil tech. And I agree with most of what you've said.

 

However, there seem to be some missing links. I wonder if you agree.

 

1. Chinese growth is likely to come at a cost in the State's capacity to control itself. Many commentators think China is proving that autocracies are optimal capitalist systems, but rampant instability in the Chinese high capital markets suggests otherwise to me.

2. Chinese growth will be tied to information access. Will information speeds be mirrored by information control, or the reverse? This will be criticial to defining Chinese stability.

3. I agree that many nations are following China's autocratic 'potemkin' democracy model. However, if China shakes itself apart like a leprous bicyclist then what about those countries following it?

4. Non-oil technologies may generate changes in how we produce power, but what will happen to the petro-dollars accrued by these states in the meantime? Will they be invested in other power technologies?

 

5. No-one has mentioned population shifts. Africa could be facing a 40-60% death rate from HIV in the next ten years, which no-one seems to give a **** about. While the Mideast is looking at rapidly growing underclasses of Angry Young Men .

[Blarghagh]

Following the current trend, ALL media in non-english European countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands will be dubbed, enlarging the already huge rifts between EU members with larger language barriers, and these countries will also become even more obsessed with the illusion of "national identity", culminating in the slow death of the EU.

[Walsingham]

Following the current trend, ALL media in non-english European countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands will be dubbed, enlarging the already huge rifts between EU members with larger language barriers, and these countries will also become even more obsessed with the illusion of "national identity", culminating in the slow death of the EU.

 

Could you explain that again? I didn't follow you.

[Blarghagh]

Currently more and more foreign media is appearing in these countries, yet all of it is being dubbed in their respective language, enlarging the already present language barriers, making communication much more difficult over borders. If the people can't communicate they will always remain seperate.

 

Also, many European countries are becoming slowly obsessed with keeping their "national identity" (a concept I think is hogwash anyway) both because of the influx of (disturbingly much hated) immigrants and fear of becoming "European" rather than "German" or "French" or "Dutch".

 

It's because of these things that I feel that, no matter how well the politicians get along, eventually the people will start to cling together in groups again and the current form of the EU will be at an end.

 

Or am I overestimating the power of the people here?

 

EDIT: But don't take my word for it. I am rarely right about these things.

Edited July 1, 2008 by TrueNeutral

[Colrom]

It is safe to predict that there will be those who see the changes that come as good and those who see the changes that come as bad.

[Sand]

Well, one plausible change I see is free notebook computers when one signs up for wireless DSL. We have cellular plans that gives you a free celphone when you set up, and with costs coming down on basic laptops and notebook computers I can see this happening.

[Guard Dog]

Well, one plausible change I see is free notebook computers when one signs up for wireless DSL. We have cellular plans that gives you a free celphone when you set up, and with costs coming down on basic laptops and notebook computers I can see this happening.

 

I know for a fact that is coming. They are fairly crappy and use a stripped down version of Linux but they are fully internet capable and ar coming soon (like 2009-2010) from a big US wireless company with a short name.

[Meshugger]

Following the current trend, ALL media in non-english European countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands will be dubbed, enlarging the already huge rifts between EU members with larger language barriers, and these countries will also become even more obsessed with the illusion of "national identity", culminating in the slow death of the EU.

 

In the Nordic countries, there is no dubbing at all. Everything foreign has subtitles, which i agree upon. Dubbing is lazy and it gives another layer of abstraction to the original content.

 

The whole 'national identity' is very strong in many european countries. The history, language and culture are one of the main social contracts that gives them an identity of the particular nation. It is pretty much expected that, while immigrants can bring new ideas and add spice to the food-culture, that they will become 'germans', 'french' or 'italian' in terms of customs, body language, language and culture.

 

In Finland, which has a very restrictive immigrant policy, this is very apparent.

[random n00b]

In the Nordic countries, there is no dubbing at all. Everything foreign has subtitles, which i agree upon. Dubbing is lazy and it gives another layer of abstraction to the original content.

I hate dubbing. Not only you don't get to appreciate the original actor's inflections and skill, also a lot of "cultural" stuff is lost, and replaced by stuff that sometimes makes very little sense if at all. In my eyes, it's quite disrespectful to the original work. Not to mention, here in Spain it was used as a tool of censorship during the dictatorship period. Nobody I know would be willing to give up dubbing, the lazy asses.

 

Suckage.

 

 

It is pretty much expected that, while immigrants can bring new ideas and add spice to the food-culture, that they will become 'germans', 'french' or 'italian' in terms of customs, body language, language and culture.

I don't know if I expect immigrants to become undistinguishable with natives, but I sure as hell expect them not to force *their* customs and way of life on ours. Of course, this leads to lack of integration, ghetto creation and all-around tensions. And of course, lots of accusations of racism and xenophobia flying around.

[Sand]

I know for a fact that is coming. They are fairly crappy and use a stripped down version of Linux but they are fully internet capable and ar coming soon (like 2009-2010) from a big US wireless company with a short name.

 

Not surprising, considering some celphones are more powerful than some midrange to low range laptops.

[mkreku]

I can imagine fuel cells and magnetic RAM will change the world the most in the next ten years. Fuel cells will invade everything from cell phones to cars, offering much improved power efficiency. Magnetic RAM will revolutionize everything from computers to MP3-players.