So it seems NK's planning nuke tests

[Atreides]

The usual countries like SK, Japan, USA are scrambling. Looks like it's gonna be interesting.

 

Anyone worried yet?

[Hildegard]

No.

[Gfted1]

Im not worried for my country (US) but I am for the South Pacific. NK's dictator is crazier then a craphouse rat and I think if he got even the slightest assurances from China that they wouldnt wipe NK off the map for using a nuke, he will. With the economy in ruins and mass starvations taking place, hes got nothing left to lose.

[Hildegard]

Im not worried for my country (US) but I am for the South Pacific. NK's dictator is crazier then a craphouse rat and I think if he got even the slightest assurances from China that they wouldnt wipe NK off the map for using a nuke, he will. With the economy in ruins and mass starvations taking place, hes got nothing left to lose.

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He won't use nukes in a warfare scenario and he's got a lot to lose, his state and ppl.

[Pop]

Im not worried for my country (US) but I am for the South Pacific. NK's dictator is crazier then a craphouse rat and I think if he got even the slightest assurances from China that they wouldnt wipe NK off the map for using a nuke, he will. With the economy in ruins and mass starvations taking place, hes got nothing left to lose.

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He won't use nukes in a warfare scenario and he's got a lot to lose, his state and ppl.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But he can rattle his saber all he wants, and he intends to do so. Most countries within his range should be willing to deal on that alone.

 

Of course, the last test they had failed. He might just make himself look like a fool again.

[mkreku]

I just feel that this world really doesn't need any more nuclear arms anywhere. That includes the US too.

[Dark_Raven]

China is stupid. I don't know why they allow their neighbors to have nukes or try and get them like Iran and NK. I certainly wouldn't want an unstable neighbor to have those weapons. China has a big voice and carries a big stick, I don't understand why they don't do anything.

[Volourn]

"his state and ppl."

 

He doesn't care about either - just look at the state they are in. He only cares about power. As long as he has power which he does thanks to his nukes - even if they are untrustworthy - he is a happy sabrerattler.

 

Raven: Simple. To oppose the US. China wants to be the next superpower so they'll likely do anything that opposes the US if they reasonably can. China honestly thinks they can control NK. LOL :D

Edited October 3, 2006 by Volourn

[~Di]

I'm not sure China still thinks they can control NK... unless they are lying to the world about having told NK not to test missles a few months ago, at which time NK promptly shot a half dozen missles, giving an unmistakeable diplomatic finger to China... and the rest of the world too.

 

Yes, I think it's more than possible NK would use nukes if it believed China would not retaliate (and face it, I don't think anyone seriously believes China would do more than make a few public speeches of condemnation). The question is, where would NK send those nukes? NK could wipe out 10 million people in SK in a single hour with conventional weapons alone, then take over the south without having to worry about irradiated lands. So if NK uses a nuke, it will be against either Japan or, if they ever get their long-range missle to work, against the west coast of the USA.

 

Now, if the USA retaliated in kind, turning NK into green glass, that would piss off China to no end since the wind blows in their direction, would also piss off South Korea, Japan, and every other country over which the wind would carry those delightful glowing particles, which would pretty much be the official signal of WW3. So NK could gamble that the USA would not retaliate with nukes of their own, and presume it could absorb any conventional weaponry while it easily over ran the rich south, and "reunified" the country under Il's benign rule.

 

It's a scenario and a gamble that I, frankly, can see a madman like Jung Il taking eventually. He may not, of course... but it wouldn't surprise me if he did. Still, I'm not going to lose sleep worrying over it. And I live on the west coast of the USA.

[Tigranes]

If NK bombs anywhere, it'll be either themselves or Washington. Don't be so sure, Americans.

 

But any point of provocation NK will take will not be in the form of nuclear weapons. They would use their array of conventional weapons to attack China, Japan, or more likely, SK, and take over; then yell NUKE when the world wants to pull an Iraq on it. I'm pretty sure if NK takes over SK, for example, or if there's a war, Japan and China would have a very hard choice between sacrificing SK and having a nuke blow up in their back yard (or even in their country). Of course, if NK took over any country they'd probably collapse economically and either starve everyone to death or be overthrown, but only after a huge loss.

 

Really, the best way is to assassinate Kim Jung Il and organise some sort of covert maneuvre to bring down the regime. Probably damn hard, but it would actually be justified (as opposed to Iraq) if they had nukes.

[alanschu]

It probably wouldn't be the smartest idea for NK to nuke China.

[Fenghuang]

I'm not sure China still thinks they can control NK... unless they are lying to the world about having told NK not to test missles a few months ago, at which time  NK promptly shot a half dozen missles, giving an unmistakeable diplomatic finger to China... and the rest of the world too.

 

Yes, I think it's more than possible NK would use nukes if it believed China would not retaliate (and face it, I don't think anyone seriously believes China would do more than make a few public speeches of condemnation).  The question is, where would NK send those nukes?  NK could wipe out 10 million people in SK in a single hour with conventional weapons alone, then take over the south without having to worry about irradiated lands.  So if NK uses a nuke, it will be against either Japan or, if they ever get their long-range missle to work, against the west coast of the USA.

 

Now, if the USA retaliated in kind, turning NK into green glass, that would piss off China to no end since the wind blows in their direction,  would also piss off South Korea, Japan, and every other country over which the wind would carry those delightful glowing particles, which would pretty much be the official signal of WW3.  So NK could gamble that the USA would not retaliate with nukes of their own, and presume it could absorb any conventional weaponry while it easily over ran the rich south, and "reunified" the country under Il's benign rule.

 

It's a scenario and a gamble that I, frankly, can see a madman like Jung Il taking eventually.  He may not, of course... but it wouldn't surprise me if he did.  Still, I'm not going to lose sleep worrying over it.  And I live on the west coast of the USA.

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You not only live on the West Coast, but assuming you haven't moved we both live close enough to Beale that if a nuclear war started in earnest we'd both get a hearty dose of fallout when they bombed it and die of radiation poisoning. Anybody with any sense would take out Beale first if they're aiming for the West Coast of the US, what with all the spook planes and bombers.

 

But this is all irrelevant because I've already played this level and Sam Fisher totally saves the day.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Fenghuang

[Arkan]

Nuclear incident in '06 baby! Woot!

[Fenghuang]

You'll never know about it because Third Echelon will take care of it!

[metadigital]

lol Third Echelon, it's in the remit of the people in Fifth Echelon ... "

[~Di]

If NK bombs anywhere, it'll be either themselves or Washington. Don't be so sure, Americans.

 

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand the above statement. Why would NK bomb itself? And although I'm certain NK would love to bomb Washington, they don't even have a working missle that can reach the west coast, let along D.C. ... so what is it Americans should not be so sure about??

 

But any point of provocation NK will take will not be in the form of nuclear weapons. They would use their array of conventional weapons to attack China, Japan, or more likely, SK,...

 

China?? I'm sorry, but there isn't a chance in hades even a madman like Kim Jung Il would attack China. What on earth would make you think he would? China is NK's closest... and probably only... ally.

[Hildegard]

NK's nuclear bombs are very primitive ones and cannot be fitted into an long range missile, so stop saying they'll nuke USA....and they won't be able to create sophisticated ones for years to come....their nukes would rather be used as tactical weapons in a conflict with the South Korea nad the US forces. And if they ever nuke SK, they are 38 000 american troops out there, and no US president is gonna sit by and watch his troops get nuked and do nothing. The US would in that scenario hit back NK with a limited range of tactical nuclear weapons with minimum downfall....and one more thing: NK isn't gonna strike first with nukes, this is just their desperate way of getting a better position in negotiating with the US, they are out of resources, if they don't stop the sanctiones soon their state will die....and desperate situations call for desperate measures....so is the scenario here.

 

PS. Please stop saying that NK will nuke China because you're making fools out of yourselves.

[Volourn]

Amazing. I pretty much agree with Hildegard 100%. WOWSERS!

[Gfted1]

NK's nuclear bombs are very primitive ones and cannot be fitted into an long range missile, so stop saying they'll nuke USA....and they won't be able to create sophisticated ones for years to come....their nukes would rather be used as tactical weapons in a conflict with the South Korea nad the US forces. And if they ever nuke SK, they are 38 000 american troops out there, and no US president is gonna sit by and watch his troops get nuked and do nothing. The US would in that scenario hit back NK with a limited range of tactical nuclear weapons with minimum downfall....and one more thing: NK isn't gonna strike first with nukes, this is just their desperate way of getting a better position in negotiating with the US, they are out of resources, if they don't stop the sanctiones soon their state will die....and desperate situations call for desperate measures....so is the scenario here.

 

PS. Please stop saying that NK will nuke China because you're making fools out of yourselves.

 

Er, isnt it counterproductive toward getting sactions removed, which were put in place over producing nuclear material, by poking the world in the eye with a nuclear test? The answer of course is yes. So, with that in mind, I think it pretty cleary shows that NK govornment is doing far more then rattling sabres. Unless you are proposing they just want to make one, blow it off for the world to see and then they will decide to suspend the program?

[Azarkon]

China isn't stupid for doing nothing about NK: why would they? Let's look at the possible best and worst case scenarios:

 

Best case:

 

* NK comes back to the negotiation table after becoming assured of its new nuclear stick. The US makes some concessions, NK gets some breathing room, and eventually adopts Chinese-style state-directed economic reforms. China can then flex its economic muscle and get a sane NK on its side as permanent ally. Win-win.

 

* NK thumbs its stick, but no one cares. The regime eventually topples due to mass starvation. Before that, the remains of the regime, still bitter about SK, calls on China for help. China goes in and gains a new province.

 

* The missile test fails and NK is back to square one.

 

Worst case:

 

* NK attacks SK. SK retaliates with US aid. NK in desperation nukes SK. Both Koreas are now in shambles. China, along with the US and Japan, stands to gain from rebuilding the countries.

 

* NK attacks Japan. Japan retaliates with US aid. NK in desperation nukes Japan. China now has one less neighbor to compete with.

 

* The US attacks NK with Japan. This pisses off SK, which now leans towards China. The US gets bogged down in yet another occupational war and its resources are stretched to the breaking point. China, in a gesture of "good will," buys even more US war bonds and makes the US even more dependent upon it. At the end of the day, the Chinese become the new dominant economic force.

 

* The US attacks NK with SK. But that won't happen because SK is for "peaceful reunificiation" and wants the US to butt out.

 

* The US airstrikes NK. NK in retaliation nukes/missiles US allies SK and Japan. Might give Japan an excuse to militarize, which could be bad for China, but the likelihood of that happening regardless is pretty high anyhow, so no real loss.

 

* The US nukes NK. The whole of East Asia gets pissed at the US and China gets more influence in the region.

 

* NK attacks China. Not going to happen.

 

So why would the Chinese do anything? And what can they do? They've already told the NK to "stop it," but NK is obviously not listening. The only two things the Chinese can do at this point would be:

 

* Sanction NK alongside the rest of the world. But this would cost them what good will they had in the country and gain them almost no benefits.

 

* Attack NK in the hopes of taking it over. But this is suicidal - the Chinese military might overwhelm the NK, but they'd be fighting an occupational war and that'd cost them dearly. Plus, SK would get pissed and lean even closer to the US. Japan would have an excuse to re-militarize (see! The Chinese are aggressive!), and the Western world would have an excuse to label China as a military threat. Not gonna happen.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Azarkon

[julianw]

NK will not attack China because China is their lifeline for food and resources. Every time Kim visits Beijing, he begs for money. Even if Kim wanted to take the whole world with him, he would have to attack China last.