Bird flu

[metadigital]

Nah, they'd have to drown them in cooking oil, first ...

[SteveThaiBinh]

The WHO managed to create a vaccine for SARS in less than 24 hours (once they had the virus sample): the fastest (obviously) in the history of immunology, and a true credit to the people involved.

They did? I'm fairly sure that's not the case, or at least not a very effective vaccine.

A Bird Flu (or any influenza) is worth taking time to consider the implications: mainly because after it's spread, it's TOO LATE to do anything.

The main lessons I took away from SARS was the importance of governments co-operating with the WHO and being honest. I'm glad I was in Viet Nam and not China/Hongkong at the time - the Chinese government tried to pretend it wasn't happening, then there was a panic because nobody believed them any more. The Vietnamese government told the truth and wasn't too proud to ask for international help.

 

Any country which is overly-obsessed with a narrow national security agenda is potentially a threat to its neighbours because it could try to cover up a new epidemic and lose the chance of nipping it in the bud.

 

Edit: (source=Daily Telegraph)

 

[Atreides]

Iirc they're worried that the avian flu might spread to other birds or heaven forbid, mutate in some flu combo thingy and get passed on as the common cold.

 

Seems like avian flu has higher than usual mortality rates so that's disturbing. If they find some kind of vaccine no need to worry excessively I suppose.

[thepixiesrock]

It has a 90% mortality rate. Thats why everyone is worried.

[alanschu]

Bah. No sense living in fear.

 

Sure, you could hole yourself up and stay alive. But are you really living?

[Judge Hades]

If I get sick and die I get sick and die. If I don't then I don't. You can either live your life in fear or live your life. It doesn't matter anyway, for you will die when you are suppose to die. No sooner and no later.

[metadigital]

The WHO managed to create a vaccine for SARS in less than 24 hours (once they had the virus sample): the fastest (obviously) in the history of immunology, and a true credit to the people involved.

They did? I'm fairly sure that's not the case, or at least not a very effective vaccine.

A Bird Flu (or any influenza) is worth taking time to consider the implications: mainly because after it's spread, it's TOO LATE to do anything.

The main lessons I took away from SARS was the importance of governments co-operating with the WHO and being honest. I'm glad I was in Viet Nam and not China/Hongkong at the time - the Chinese government tried to pretend it wasn't happening, then there was a panic because nobody believed them any more. The Vietnamese government told the truth and wasn't too proud to ask for international help.

 

Any country which is overly-obsessed with a narrow national security agenda is potentially a threat to its neighbours because it could try to cover up a new epidemic and lose the chance of nipping it in the bud.

 

Edit: (source=Daily Telegraph)

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1. Yes, they did. Otherwise, SARS would have circled the globe fifty times over, by now, rather than the sixty-odd people that died in Canada and a few elsewhere outside Asia. SARS is not the Bird 'Flu that is of concern now; they are two different strains.

 

 

2. I remember watching a moot UN exercise (not with the actual diplomats to the UN, but the EU governments' Health politicians, iirc). They started by having an epidemic in Asia, then they tracked the spread into Europe; matching against the stocks of 'flu immunisations.

 

What they found was, as one might expect, a large game of diplomacy: those that had sufficient stock, even if they were not immediately affected, kept their stocks (to the detriment of those who had been infected first and had no stocks, like Turkey) and sat back to keep their own countries "safe", thus preventling the early isolation and containment of the epidemic.

 

I find your faith in the machineries of government at one touching and disturbing: if you think the UK government is in any way more capable of managing a health crisis, then I you are an optimist against evidence. (The UK can't even contain the usual Winter epidemics that only effect the aged and infirm.)

If I get sick and die I get sick and die.  If I don't then I don't.  You can either live your life in fear or live your life.  It doesn't matter anyway, for you will die when you are suppose to die.  No sooner and no later.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's a big chance you're taking with your life, believing in fate to that extent.

 

I don't know about you, but fatalism seems to be a BIG RISK. How can you be so sure that everything is pre-ordained?

 

If you take that attitude, you may as well not look when crossing the road ...

[Judge Hades]

Some say I am fatalistic. Some say I am a very depressing and cynical person. I pay it no mind. I have my belief and I stay with it, no matter what God tells me otherwise.

[SteveThaiBinh]

1. Yes, they did. Otherwise, SARS would have circled the globe fifty times over, by now, rather than the sixty-odd people that died in Canada and a few elsewhere outside Asia.

WHO is still searching for a SARS vaccine

 

There is no SARS vaccine, I checked. The spread of SARS was averted by sensible quarantine of the infected through effective action by governments and health workers.

SARS is not the Bird 'Flu that is of concern now; they are two different strains.

I am well aware of that. I was living in Viet Nam when SARS was first identified in Hanoi, and I remember the daily WHO advisories and phone calls from friends and family asking if I was dead yet. Avian Flu had already been around (as a minor issue) for a while, but never generated the public alarm that SARS did. I was merely suggesting that lessons learned from the fight against one might be usefully applied to the other.

I find your faith in the machineries of government at one touching and disturbing: if you think the UK government is in any way more capable of managing a health crisis, then I you are an optimist against evidence. (The UK can't even contain the usual Winter epidemics that only effect the aged and infirm.)

I think they are more capable of dealing with an outbreak of Avian Flu now than before the foot-and-mouth crisis. I'm primarily referring to an outbreak within the bird population. Should it spread to humans, the health service would be in the front line, and yes, I do have a great deal of faith in the NHS' ability to handle a large-scale national emergency, despite short-sighted cost cutting exercises by successive Conservative and Labour governments.

[213374U]

Some say I am fatalistic.  Some say I am a very depressing and cynical person.

And I say you're just starved for attention. )

[Judge Hades]

Nah, I have chicken and pickles.

[Cantousent]

Should the WHO and individual countries take steps to avert disaster? Of course. ...But should I fixate on bird flu? I dunno, but I won't. You notice that I mentioned the word pandemic in my original post. I comprehend the risks, but I also understand that, as a practical matter, my life is placed in far more danger by the circumstances of my immediate surroundings than it is by the bird flu. The factors surrounding an actual pandemic, when it finally hits, are far beyond my control. Living reasonably and within my means is a much better way to stay healthy than to retreat to the confines of my home every time there is a hint of some epidemic.

 

SARS might have a been the one, but it wasn't. Bird flu might be the one, but it probably won't be. When the real pandemic hits, we probably won't have so much warning that we're arguing over the fact on Obsidian's message board. It will be so clear that we will be arguing how we intend to survive the outbreak rather than whether it's the real thing.

 

...And I agree with Hades. No, I don't think we should lie down and let so called fate roll over us. What I do think is that we can either live with realistic risk assessment or we can live in fear. Bird flu is not a huge risk at this time and nothing we, here on this board, can do will mitigate the effects at any rate. I make sure I park in well lit areas, use my turn signal when changing lanes, and look both ways before I cross a street. These steps make quite a bit more sense than the panic I see in some folks regarding a pandemic somewhere on the horizon.

[metadigital]

...

[1]There is no SARS vaccine, I checked.  The spread of SARS was averted by sensible quarantine of the infected through effective action by governments and health workers.

SARS is not the Bird 'Flu that is of concern now; they are two different strains.

I am well aware of that. I was living in Viet Nam when SARS was first identified in Hanoi, and I remember the daily WHO advisories and phone calls from friends and family asking if I was dead yet. Avian Flu had already been around (as a minor issue) for a while, but never generated the public alarm that SARS did. [2]I was merely suggesting that lessons learned from the fight against one might be usefully applied to the other.

I find your faith in the machineries of government at one touching and disturbing: if you think the UK government is in any way more capable of managing a health crisis, then I you are an optimist against evidence. (The UK can't even contain the usual Winter epidemics that only effect the aged and infirm.)

[3]I think they are more capable of dealing with an outbreak of Avian Flu now than before the foot-and-mouth crisis. I'm primarily referring to an outbreak within the bird population. Should it spread to humans, the health service would be in the front line, and yes, I do have a great deal of faith in the NHS' ability to handle a large-scale national emergency, despite short-sighted cost cutting exercises by successive Conservative and Labour governments.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

1. Cure for Bird 'Flu "

(Ah, I see what my old grey cells have recalled is that the SARS was the fastest ever genomic sequencing (less than a day); any comments as to the putative cure may not be as correct as one initially thought.) "

the first Canadian press release and SARS genomic sequencing update 11 Jul, 2003.

 

A little background:

What's all the fuss about?

story so far

 

How to contain it:

How to stop it

As for how the governments are responding to the challenge, here is the WHO recommendation

 

The future:

map ALL 'flu genomes

 

2. Again, I agree that lessons CAN BE learned; and, moreover, SHOULD BE learned; I just disagree with you about whether this is the case.

 

3. Sure, I would expect that the disposal of the entire bird population of the UK is well within the government's power (give or take all the wildfowl, which would be perfect carriers and prohibited from inclusion by rabid twitchers).

 

I thought you were talking about a human bird 'flu epidemic. The only thing that saved the world in 2004 was that the strain wasn't very virulent. If it spread as fast as a normal cold, then we'd all be dead by now.

[Judge Hades]

Personally I think the world would be better off with less people in it.

[Azarkon]

That only works if you intend to be one of the survivors.

 

Nothing in nature is certain. All the best laid plans do not guarantee your safety in the event of a pandemic, especially one that is airborne.

 

As always, quick response via quarantine and vaccination is the best weapon humanity has against pandemics. Oh and, of course, a government that won't save the most virulent strains of viruses for possible future use as a biological weapon helps, too.