Ukraine Conflict - war continues on

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Lexx said:

From where do you get that information?

That is obviously doomposting. The situation isn't that bad, though it is bad.

Ukraine clearly isn't going to accept just any old deal just from the events of the last few days even if they've shifted significantly in terms of what they will accept over the last few months. Europe also clearly doesn't really care that much about the current corruption scandal given who they just welcomed with open arms- Yermak, probably the second most important guy who has been implicated; and the chief negotiator with Rubio and the Euros. Which, one suspects, was Zelensky calling their bluff as much as anything, making sure there's lots of footage of Euro politicos shaking hands with him in case of more pressure to sack him.

The collapses are strictly localised, at the moment. The problem is that while Ukraine can still stop the really critical ones they just shift elsewhere, which then eventually become critical themselves, and the timeframe for the collapses is accelerating. They are at real risk of losing three very important towns inside a month which hasn't happened since the start of the war; one of which people would have thought you mad suggesting it was in play a month ago (Huliapole; for all that people make fun of Russia not learning you'd think Ukraine would have some defences facing north for a major defensive city after 40 months...). 

The desertions are a big problem though, that isn't overstated. Getting actual figures is difficult, since there are at least three classifications for desertion adjacent absence from service (~awol, 'missing*', and criminal desertion) and the whole thing is highly politicised. Best estimate seems to be at least a 5 figure number deserting every month and something like a quarter of a million total. The interesting recruitment method videos are also so ubiquitous now that only the most die hard of Ukraine supporters think they're just Russian propaganda.

*though more usually that's dead rather than deserted, and used to avoid paying widow pensions/ compensation it's also for those who desert under combat conditions or surrender without a fight and don't want to register with the RC for fear they'll be traded back.

Edited 19 hours ago by Zoraptor

[Amentep]

Old thread -

 

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well not sure the front is collapsing, but Ukraine's on the backfoot now and has been for some time.  They have troop shortages and that's making things worse as people on the front are going to break.   Russia's not stellar by comparison, but this a rate fight, so to speak.

Quite true.

Educate me, how did Ukraine serve its purpose and who did they serve?

I have followed this type of opinion before and it always has holes in logic and historical consistency and of course generally ignores the reason Ukraine is getting support from the West, Russia invaded a sovereign country that is on border of the EU and this country has direct cultural ties to several East European countries with a history of Soviet occupation. So a Russian invasion of Chechnya would not get  the same interest or support  for understandable reasons 

But go into details?

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Well, all of this seems moot now, because apparently yesterday in Geneva very good progress was made on amending the document on all points, such that everyone--the US, the Europeans, and most importantly the Ukrainians--are now satisfied and on the same page. It seems that the Ukrainians are willing to accept the painful territorial concessions, just as I expected and predicted, in exchange for very strong security guarantees, protection of their sovereignty, and a good reconstruction plan. But that is all the more reason to expect that Putin will very likely reject it. It will at least serve to put more pressure on the Russians, though, and hopefully also will re-isolate them internationally if we can get other major states around the world to accept the modified plan as a good plan that is reasonable and fair to both sides.

But as I mentioned what surprised me was the reaction to this first " peace plan " as if it was a done deal 

And we have been through this before so its not unprecedented. I have stopped quoting Trump on Ukraine because of how many times he has said things and then backtracked, I got tired of being interested in something that didn't materialize  (like the long range missiles )

The EU and Ukraine will always need to accept the terms and then it goes back to Russia. 

After those steps then we can objectively commenting on the terms 

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Educate me, how did Ukraine serve its purpose and who did they serve?

I have followed this type of opinion before and it always has holes in logic and historical consistency and of course generally ignores the reason Ukraine is getting support from the West, Russia invaded a sovereign country that is on border of the EU and this country has direct cultural ties to several East European countries with a history of Soviet occupation. So a Russian invasion of Chechnya would not get  the same interest or support  for understandable reasons 

But go into details?

Is a proxy war of sorts, maybe not purpose but they have been useful, at least for the countries that matter.  

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-peace-deal-trump-driscoll-abu-dhabi-talks-latest/

Ukraine agrees to a set.

Edited 1 hour ago by Malcador