Syrian civil war

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

All over with now, SAA surrendered.  Kurds must be antsy.  As for Assad,  wonder where he'll end up, already have some OSINT people saying his plane was shot down

One of two planes leaving Damascus yesterday was either shot or landed near Homs, the second one landed in UAE. My guess would be, he was on plane to Dubai. Unless the pilot of the first one decided to hand over Assad to rebels

[Lexx]

Crazy how fast this suddenly ended. Complete failure. Of course the new gov will now say whatever they need to get western money. I believe this won't end well anytime soon, though.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, Gorth said:

I wouldn't call close to half a million people fleeing the HTS for "popular support". It looks like a replay of Taliban taking over Afghanistan with all their promises of respecting human rights, education for women etc. (HTS is nor more no less a terrorist group than Taliban is)

Edit: Expect Syria being in some kind of civil war the next 20 years with Turks fighting Kurds, HTS fighting moderate rebels in the south, where they aren't supported in the same way by Turkey, everyone kiling Alawites (just for old times sake) etc.

I very well understand what you are talking, but do remember the millions of refugees, with which Assad and Putin flooded Türkiye and Europe to destabilize it. Weaker Russia means safer world in the future. Today even Christians of Damascus are celebrating HTS liberation, that’s how ****ed up was the Assad Putin duo in Syria…

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcrsdx6cx22y

I just hope it will last them for a long time. And yes, I am playing naive here. And the Kurds, with the exception of the city of Manbij, all of the territories under their “rule” are behind Euphrates river, so unless the HTS and Türkiye starts to use aviation against them, they should be “safe”. And yes, again I am trying to see a little bit brighter picture here than you. Nothing out of it might happen, and Syria can turn into mess again, but hopefully the rebels are also feeling tired from decade long civil war, and their brain will tell them, that more destruction in the country will not be to their benefits. But after today, the global world is a little bit safer again, as Russia has been dealt significant reputation blow, and they will soon loose their gateway port through which they exploit Africa…

 

Edit: for now even Kurdish SDF command is looking forward to what happened to Assads’s regime. For now.
 

 

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Millions of Syrians are living in refugee camps, I would like them to return home and the country to start being functional again 

Turkey will helpfully give theirs the boot. They'll need a lot of money, maybe the West can bribe HTS with that.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-part-damascus-two-security-sources-say-2024-12-08/

Israel doesn't want certain things falling into wrong hands, I guess.  They also seized more land as well, apparently

[Malcador]

Ah, Assad in Moscow - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-assad-his-family-are-moscow-after-russia-granted-them-asylum-say-russian-2024-12-08/

 

[Zoraptor]

Maybe, this time, Al Qaeda will be OK? the thread.

I mean, they never have in the past, but with the west giving them money for reconstruction* maybe this time they'll be OK?? since we know the one thing radical islamists care about is money. Just look at bin Laden, traded a life shut in a dingy compound and caves for a lifestyle fit for a multi hundred millionaire... oh wait, that was the other way around, wasn't it? Won't start fighting people who aren't quite wahhabi enough for them or look at them the wrong way or people Turkey doesn't like. Won't blow up shia shrines, won't force convert people, won't export their revolution are won't end up making the US and Europe regret being dumb and self destructive enough to help them. Again.

Why even try thinking like that. It's one thing to start believing you can fly when you've already fallen off the cliff, it's quite another to believe that gravity doesn't exist before that. Name one radical islamic government that hasn't tried to export itself everywhere. I'll wait, but won't be holding my breath.

Best case scenario is Libya; and Syria was starting from a far lower base than Libya had.

*couldn't even type that with a straight face. They make Ukraine jump through hoops for loans, but they're going to just give Al Qaeda a load of money for them to build apartment blocks or something... the level of credulity required to believe that is far higher than believing al Jolani is a Nigerian Prince whose assets have been unfairly frozen.

Edited December 8 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

Oh yeah, how we could forget

Taliban, who is despised by their own people being business partner to Russia after they knocked out USA: Good.

Possible HTS, who has been welcomed by their own people, and who for now promised to not exectute revenge on the rest of the Assad supporters, showing interest to talk with the West after they kicked out Russia: BAD!!!

[Zoraptor]

Please feel free to find where I've ever had anything positive to say about the Taleban. Again, I'll wait, but not while holding my breath*. On the other hand I don't have to look far for you saying positive things about rebranded al Qaeda, now do I?

I am 100% of the opinion that something can both be bad for someone 'I' don't like, and bad for 'me' as well.

*about the closest I've said is that they were militarily effective. Which was of course only half the story- the most relevant part to this situation being that while they hung on in there they only won because 20 years of western reconstruction abjectly failed.

Edited December 8 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Maybe, this time, Al Qaeda will be OK? the thread.

I mean, they never have in the past, but with the west giving them money for reconstruction* maybe this time they'll be OK?? since we know the one thing radical islamists care about is money. Just look at bin Laden, traded a life shut in a dingy compound and caves for a lifestyle fit for a multi hundred millionaire... oh wait, that was the other way around, wasn't it? Won't start fighting people who aren't quite wahhabi enough for them or look at them the wrong way or people Turkey doesn't like. Won't blow up shia shrines, won't force convert people, won't export their revolution are won't end up making the US and Europe regret being dumb and self destructive enough to help them. Again.

Why even try thinking like that. It's one thing to start believing you can fly when you've already fallen off the cliff, it's quite another to believe that gravity doesn't exist before that. Name one radical islamic government that hasn't tried to export itself everywhere. I'll wait, but won't be holding my breath.

Best case scenario is Libya; and Syria was starting from a far lower base than Libya had.

*couldn't even type that with a straight face. They make Ukraine jump through hoops for loans, but they're going to just give Al Qaeda a load of money for them to build apartment blocks or something... the level of credulity required to believe that is far higher than believing al Jolani is a Nigerian Prince whose assets have been unfairly frozen.

I never noticed you raise the obvious failed state  of Syria under Assad  when it was a staunch Russian and Iranian ally?

And these government failures were a contributing factor around the predicted overthrow of Assad

But now you dont have much faith in the future of the country?

Interesting what motivates you to be "concerned "

 

 

 

[Malcador]

I never noticed you doing that either. Some things are obvious enough to not be said, I guess. Zoraptor waa pretty active in the last Syria thread and wasn't praising Assad or something

Maybe Jolani will walk the walk, can see the West wanting things to work out, as they can send those scary brown people back.  I guess if he does turn loco, just has to bribe Europe with oil and they'll shrug at it, heh

Euros concern for Africans and ME people of late has interesting motivation as well.

Edited December 9 by Malcador

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-syria-rebels-stars-aligned-assads-ouster-2024-12-08/

So the first picture in the article features a guy with an ISIS flag and yet there's no mention of ISIS in the article at all? Huh, that's a little weird.

[Mamoulian War]

Tens of thousands of refugees are already on their way home from Turkey and Lebanon. This will lead definitely to more stable situation in Lebanon as well, as there have been allegedly more than 1.5 million of them sheltered from Assad regime.

Seems like even ex-Alqaeda and ex-ISIS guys are for them considered a better option than Russia was

[Mamoulian War]

8 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I never noticed you doing that either. Some things are obvious enough to not be said, I guess. Zoraptor waa pretty active in the last Syria thread and wasn't praising Assad or something

Maybe Jolani will walk the walk, can see the West wanting things to work out, as they can send those scary brown people back.  I guess if he does turn loco, just has to bribe Europe with oil and they'll shrug at it, heh

Euros concern for Africans and ME people of late has interesting motivation as well.

“We must ensure western voices dominate this anti imperialist discussion. The idea that Syrians themselves may have decided that ISIS is better than Kremlin cos it doesn't have an air force must be suppressed. It might lead to very awkward questions about us.”

Darth Putin - December 9, 2024

[Malcador]

2 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Seems like even ex-Alqaeda and ex-ISIS guys are for them considered a better option than Russia was

You mean Assad. Unless you think Russia has been running the country for the past decades.  Also a poor comparison as ex ISIS is better than Lebanon or Turkey.

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, Mamoulian War said:

“We must ensure western voices dominate this anti imperialist discussion. The idea that Syrians themselves may have decided that ISIS is better than Kremlin cos it doesn't have an air force must be suppressed. It might lead to very awkward questions about us.”

Darth Putin - December 9, 2024

Ah well, such is propaganda.

[Mamoulian War]

3 minutes ago, Malcador said:

You mean Assad. Unless you think Russia has been running the country for the past decades.  Also a poor comparison as ex ISIS is better than Lebanon or Turkey.

Assad has become Russia’s puppet the day, they bombarded first hospital. This led to displacement of more than 12 million people while killing another million. All with the blessing of Kremlin, as destabilization of Europe woth refugees to allow rise of pro-Kremlin far right in Europe, was Putin’s plan since day 1

[BruceVC]

28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I never noticed you doing that either. Some things are obvious enough to not be said, I guess. Zoraptor waa pretty active in the last Syria thread and wasn't praising Assad or something

Maybe Jolani will walk the walk, can see the West wanting things to work out, as they can send those scary brown people back.  I guess if he does turn loco, just has to bribe Europe with oil and they'll shrug at it, heh

Euros concern for Africans and ME people of late has interesting motivation as well.

What you talking about, I always maintained that Assad lacked legitimacy as a  leader and Syria became  a failed state under his leadership since the Arab Spring 2011 and its outcome

I have been very consistent with that view 

 

[Malcador]

As I wrote, some things are so obvious they don't need to be said.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-syria-rebels-stars-aligned-assads-ouster-2024-12-08/

So the first picture in the article features a guy with an ISIS flag and yet there's no mention of ISIS in the article at all? Huh, that's a little weird.

Because they call themselves HTS now or at least lot of their members have been members of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. Now it seems that they want rule themselves now. 

[HoonDing]

Feels like the best time for some Delta Force to claim the bounty on that ISIS scumbag.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

Feels like the best time for some Delta Force to claim the bounty on that ISIS scumbag.

For shady crap like that, SEALs are your boys.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, HoonDing said:

Feels like the best time for some Delta Force to claim the bounty on that ISIS scumbag.

For shady crap like that, SEALs are your boys.

[Mamoulian War]

If anyone is still wondering why Syrian people prefer ex-terrorists over Assad and Russia

[Zoraptor]

Ah, like Israel's.

Not a surprise to anyone anyway, since the CIA were using Sednaya as a black site.

Also cannot take any criticism of Assad seriously here since you didn't lead by condemning the Burger ISIS and Menorah ISIS use of torture and extrajudicial killings.

I also note that the most strident supporters of the Rules Based Order and opponents of invasions and seizing land haven't lead with their strident condemnation of Israel's invasion of Syria and seizure of its land, so I can safely ignore anything else they have to say, twice over.

(Yeah, really not a fan of that style, as I find it kind of pathetic. Still good for goose, good for gander; and I'd be a lot lot better at it)

5 hours ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-syria-rebels-stars-aligned-assads-ouster-2024-12-08/

So the first picture in the article features a guy with an ISIS flag and yet there's no mention of ISIS in the article at all? Huh, that's a little weird.

The Seal of the Prophets isn't exclusive to ISIS. Though it does tend to be used by the more head choppy and ISIS adjacent.

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Zoraptor waa pretty active in the last Syria thread and wasn't praising Assad or something

Best I've ever said about Assad was that he was the least bad option of those practically available which, sadly, we're about to have proved correct. Some refugees will go home, and a whole lot more will leave when the squabbling inevitably starts. At which point we'll get a whole lot of "who could have predicted this" "oh those arabs, typical, shame they can't learn from their betters" and "not our fault" from the usual suspects who will, as always, forget that they were cheerleading and supporting it the whole way through. Then cue another round of how anyone saying anything different has to be a sockpuppet rather than just someone blessed with the most basic of critical faculties.

Making up a mythic genuinely moderate opposition which has zero chance of winning because it doesn't exist happens every single time.

[Malcador]

Heh, reminds of the CIA black bagging a Canadian and sending him to Syria where he got tortured.

Not really sure why we're beating the "Assad is bad" horse here, but knock on.