Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Elerond]

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems most comments are that this is carelessness from Russia.  Certainly is likely, otherwise some sort of odd test of NATO but weird timing to do so.

Then there's this

 

And NAFO of course wants war. 

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

Nothing surprises me around Russia's warmongering and provocations anymore   but they denying it ...which is the normal response from Russia 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

Seems most comments are that this is carelessness from Russia.  Certainly is likely, otherwise some sort of odd test of NATO but weird timing to do so.

It's exactly about the timing as zapad is just about to start in Belarus.
After the strikes on UK/EU affiliated sites in Kiev they have now moved to intimidating NATO and Poland. 

We will see if the west dares to respond in kind. 

[Zoraptor]

Simplest explanation is that the drones GPS (/glonass) got mucked around with. Similar situation to the Ukrainian drone that hit near Tartu a couple of weeks ago (with basically no fanfare). The Ukrainians certainly were able to muck around with glonass for a bit since that was why the number of glide bomb videos from the Russians dropped right off for a couple of months, and if there's anything that would still be using vulnerable transceivers it's junker gerans.

[kanisatha]

On 9/10/2025 at 12:33 PM, Elerond said:

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

This is exactly my professional take as well. Putin knows how the military side of NATO will react. No need for him to test that. It is the political side of NATO that is suspect, and it totally makes sense Putin will want to (and will continue to) test the political will and unity of NATO. And Article 4 provocations are the best way to do so as well, because obviously an Article 5 provocation could very well backfire on him.

[BruceVC]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-failed-summer-offensive-shatters-the-myth-of-inevitable-russian-victory/

This war doesnt have the same interest it use to but here is an interesting link how the Russian summer offensive has failed

The main takeaway is the last few months we have heard lots of Russian commentary and propaganda  that " complete Russian victory was any day now\inevitable  "

 

Its not evitable and many outcomes are possible

 

 

Edited September 27 by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

Eh, if you ignore every bit of negative information for Ukraine- and there's been a lot; those horribly lop sided exchanges of bodies, averaging around 50:1 against Ukraine, and the continuing press ganging including people who patently aren't suitable or should be excluded being probably the most obvious- then yes, it's all positive for them. If you ignore every bit of positive information for Russia then it's all negative for them.

You got so much of that sort of garbage propaganda in Afghanistan where the Taleban constantly failed in their aims while everything right for them/ wrong for the coalition got swept under the carpet; right up to the point the Taleban won. And there are probably still people who think the Taleban actually lost because it took them too long? actually it was all Trump's/ Biden's fault so they lost? whatever?

It's attritional, much like the western front in ww1 it'll be static with little movement and high losses on both sides, precisely until it isn't. That blog approach is like taking Zelensky's 'aim' of 1991 borders and saying that he failed spectacularly because he lost more ground.

[Malcador]

https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-to-provide-ukraine-with-intelligence-for-missile-strikes-deep-inside-russia-ca7b2276

 

US going to help Ukraine to target Russian energy infrastructure.  Guess that's one way to force them into talks.  Putin really fumbled Trump

Edited October 2 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-to-provide-ukraine-with-intelligence-for-missile-strikes-deep-inside-russia-ca7b2276

 

US going to help Ukraine to target Russian energy infrastructure.  Guess that's one way to force them into talks.  Putin really fumbled Trump

I thought the US had always been assisting with that type of information, it was an open secret?

[Zoraptor]

Yep. Might be the first time it's been 'confirmed' though.

All those Global Surveyor flights followed immediately by Ukrainian sea drone attacks were meant to be purely coincidental. And of course for the non US we have the Germans outing the French and Brits for doing the target programming for Storm Shadows/ SCALPs.

[Malcador]

The celebration over Tomahawks (apparently invincible weapons) seems premature given Trump's waffling statement (before senile rambles)

[Zoraptor]

Tomahawks as the latest wunderwaffe is pretty bizarre. Are they going to be given submarines or destroyers as well? Because that's how the vast majority of tomahawks are launched.

OK, there are some Typhon's. But it's new and the US itself isn't close to filling its own orders for that system yet.

[Malcador]

Well, to be fair Tomahawk's open a lot of targets up and Russian AD is spread out - although I guess they can put their Su-30/35s to work on those - so it's added pressure.  Just usual excitement about everything in Russia being obliterated by them.

Puck Nielsen has more optimism that Ukraine is storing missiles up to leave Russia with no electricity in winter, or something - https://www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukraine-saving-its-missiles-for/ 
 

 

[BruceVC]

Tomahawks if provided can be used to continue to target Russian energy infrastructure, it wont be different to what Ukraine is doing now but with greater range and effectiveness 

They wont target Moscow

The Ukrainian strategy of targeting Russian energy sources is becoming very effective and is having a direct impact on Russia domestic ability to  produce and export gas and oil

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czx020k4056o

 

 

 

 

[Elerond]

I am sure that Ukraine would target Moscow if it becomes strategically effective. Currently targeting Moscow has only fear effect which does little against Russia as pressure from population towards their leadership is minimal. But I am pretty sure that they would bombard Moscow if they were able to drive Russian forces away from Ukraine and their goal was to force Russia to surrender. Now it more important for them to hinder Russia's capability to push their forces forward in Ukraine and hope that Russia will exhaust so much resources that they need to find different solution.  So far situation looks quite bleak even though it looks like that Russia's war economy has peaked and may start to decrease rabidly, Russia still has resource to fight several years without too much issues, where Ukraine's ability to continue the fight still relies mostly on support from other countries.

[Zoraptor]

Fear factor has literally never worked. All it ever does is galvanise the populace behind its own leaders. 

23 hours ago, Malcador said:

Puck Nielsen has more optimism that Ukraine is storing missiles up to leave Russia with no electricity in winter, or something - https://www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukraine-saving-its-missiles-for/ 

Given that the company that produces the flamingo is under investigation for embezzlement it's far more likely that Ukraine isn't producing anywhere near the claimed numbers- assuming, of course, that they aren't actually being made in the UK as some have claimed.

Mostly though it also has the same launch problem as the tomahawk, even more so since it's more than twice the length, three times the wingspan and four times the weight (it's also 4x the weight of a Storm Shadow/ SCALP for comparison). You ain't going to be firing a 6t missile off a modified truck- or at least, not more than once- you're going to need a specialised launch vehicle, or (a) fixed position(s). Those are going to be extremely vulnerable, and make it very difficult to achieve any sort of saturation.

(who really knows, there's clearly a lot of either obfuscation or rubbish released about it. The one strike that's been attributed to it in Crimea was short range, and the damage caused was absolutely not consistent with a 1t explosion)