Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[Elerond]

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems most comments are that this is carelessness from Russia.  Certainly is likely, otherwise some sort of odd test of NATO but weird timing to do so.

Then there's this

 

And NAFO of course wants war. 

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

Nothing surprises me around Russia's warmongering and provocations anymore   but they denying it ...which is the normal response from Russia 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

Seems most comments are that this is carelessness from Russia.  Certainly is likely, otherwise some sort of odd test of NATO but weird timing to do so.

It's exactly about the timing as zapad is just about to start in Belarus.
After the strikes on UK/EU affiliated sites in Kiev they have now moved to intimidating NATO and Poland. 

We will see if the west dares to respond in kind. 

[Zoraptor]

Simplest explanation is that the drones GPS (/glonass) got mucked around with. Similar situation to the Ukrainian drone that hit near Tartu a couple of weeks ago (with basically no fanfare). The Ukrainians certainly were able to muck around with glonass for a bit since that was why the number of glide bomb videos from the Russians dropped right off for a couple of months, and if there's anything that would still be using vulnerable transceivers it's junker gerans.

[kanisatha]

On 9/10/2025 at 12:33 PM, Elerond said:

Finland's defense commentators speculate that it was purposeful provocation from Russia which aim is to see how united NATO is and how aggressive NATO will respond to such clear provocation, probably as preparation of increasing bombardment of western Ukraine with missiles and drones.  

This is exactly my professional take as well. Putin knows how the military side of NATO will react. No need for him to test that. It is the political side of NATO that is suspect, and it totally makes sense Putin will want to (and will continue to) test the political will and unity of NATO. And Article 4 provocations are the best way to do so as well, because obviously an Article 5 provocation could very well backfire on him.

[BruceVC]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-failed-summer-offensive-shatters-the-myth-of-inevitable-russian-victory/

This war doesnt have the same interest it use to but here is an interesting link how the Russian summer offensive has failed

The main takeaway is the last few months we have heard lots of Russian commentary and propaganda  that " complete Russian victory was any day now\inevitable  "

 

Its not evitable and many outcomes are possible

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

Eh, if you ignore every bit of negative information for Ukraine- and there's been a lot; those horribly lop sided exchanges of bodies, averaging around 50:1 against Ukraine, and the continuing press ganging including people who patently aren't suitable or should be excluded being probably the most obvious- then yes, it's all positive for them. If you ignore every bit of positive information for Russia then it's all negative for them.

You got so much of that sort of garbage propaganda in Afghanistan where the Taleban constantly failed in their aims while everything right for them/ wrong for the coalition got swept under the carpet; right up to the point the Taleban won. And there are probably still people who think the Taleban actually lost because it took them too long? actually it was all Trump's/ Biden's fault so they lost? whatever?

It's attritional, much like the western front in ww1 it'll be static with little movement and high losses on both sides, precisely until it isn't. That blog approach is like taking Zelensky's 'aim' of 1991 borders and saying that he failed spectacularly because he lost more ground.