Ukraine Conflict - In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only war!

[BruceVC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-is-considering-putting-banking-sanctions-tariffs-russia-2025-03-07/ 

Trumps considering increased sanctions on Russia because of Russia's continued belligerence and ostensible intransigence around supporting  a  meaningful peace deal

" Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large-scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED," Trump said. "To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!"

[Malcador]

Hard to be sure, as it's just his ranting online

[Lexx]

Aren't they already sanctioned as much as possible?

[Malcador]

Seems Kursk may be coming to a close soon.

[pmp10]

11 hours ago, Lexx said:

Aren't they already sanctioned as much as possible?

There is still room to add before we reach Iran-level of sanctions.
But it's purely for show at this stage, mitigation strategies are already developed and in place. 

[Malcador]

Tangential but sort of amusing

 

[Zoraptor]

I'm quite partial to this gem from Julian Röpcke, personally.

(For anyone wondering, Russians used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in Kursk. This is the 3rd time they've done something similar. The thought of some little green men toodling hundreds of km along Nordstream into Germany though is... every so very slightly implausible.

Particularly ironic because there was a lot of 'effort' put into trying to make it look like a disaster rather than a 'coup' by the pro Ukrainian side- though a video with dozens of jump cuts and thermal imaging during the day isn't very convincing unless you want it to be. Coincidentally, despite 80% casualties and the rest suffocating a bunch of Ukrainian positions in the vicinity collapsed at the same time

--how did I manage to spell his name wrong when it's right there?)

Edited March 9 by Zoraptor

[rjshae]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Tangential but sort of amusing

 

Musk wants to take on 8th dan black belt judo master Vladimir Putin in a physical contest? That should be fun. More likely though, Musk would be slipped a neurotoxin.

[Lexx]

Don't worry, his mom wouldn't allow the fight anyways.

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9dp5rr2x9o 

Tomorrow is a big day for a possible end to the Ukraine conflict 

The US and Ukraine will be meeting in Saudi Arabia and this will be a  significant meeting on the way forward

 

" Soon after the White House row, Zelensky expressed regret about the incident and tried to repair relations with the US - the country's biggest military supplier.

Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, later said that Trump had received a letter from Zelensky that included an "apology" and "sense of gratitude

Witkoff said that in Saudi Arabia the US team wanted to discuss a "framework" for peace to try to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

A major minerals deal - derailed because of the row - is also reported to be back on the agenda in Saudi Arabia.

Ukraine has offered to grant the US access to its rare earth mineral reserves in exchange for US security guarantees. "

[Malcador]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-wants-see-just-minerals-deal-restart-aid-intel-ukraine-rcna195508

"As U.S. and Ukrainian officials prepare to meet in Saudi Arabia this week, President Donald Trump has privately made clear to aides that a signed minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv won’t be enough to restart aid and intelligence sharing with the war-torn country, according an administration official and another U.S. official.

Trump wants the deal, which would give the United States a stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources, signed. But he also wants to see a change in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s attitude toward peace talks, the officials said, including a willingness to make concessions such as giving up territory to Russia. Trump also wants Zelenskyy to make some movement toward elections in Ukraine and possibly toward stepping down as his country’s leader, the officials said."

Trump and MAGA caring so much about elections and democracy is precious. Given once the war ends, an election is permitted and is practical, sort of an pointless demand.

[rjshae]

Since USA military aid is ending, does that mean Ukraine is no longer under the combat constraints required under Biden?

[Zoraptor]

Biden rolled back almost all the constraints himself. Plenty of pictures of US kit getting destroyed or captured in Kursk, and they've been firing ATACMS at Russia proper for well over six months. Though whether the Ukrainians can independently enter the targeting info has always been an open question.

[Malcador]

Assuming they have any missiles left.

[Zoraptor]

They very likely have the baseline m30/1 rockets and certainly claim to still be using them to nearly this day- yesterday's footage of the strikes on the troops coming out of the pipeline had them being used. While that footage definitely has issues there has been some other footage recently, and about as much as typical once they got jammed effectively (ie not much, but some).

ATACMS... can't remember the last time there was footage or claims of them being used. Probably out, or saving in case of a high value target.

[Malcador]

So Ukraine is on side for a 30 day ceasefire, now up to Russia to make Trump throw a tantrum or something if they don't agree.  Intel and weapons sharing resuming too, at least from BBC feed

 

Ah joint statement here

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

 

Edited March 11 by Malcador

[Lexx]

I thought russia already said that they don't need a ceasefire. Also didn't they broke all of the ceasefires in the past anyways?

[Malcador]

I guess the hope is they won't piss Trump off, as he'll give Ukraine nukes or something.

[BruceVC]

11 hours ago, Malcador said:

So Ukraine is on side for a 30 day ceasefire, now up to Russia to make Trump throw a tantrum or something if they don't agree.  Intel and weapons sharing resuming too, at least from BBC feed

 

Ah joint statement here

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

 

Basically the meeting was progressive and positive 

These types of meetings are best where  Trump\Vance dont have to involved  because then it becomes more about a photo-op and media attention

 

The ball is now in Russia's court, I wonder how they will respond?

 

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Lexx said:

I thought russia already said that they don't need a ceasefire. Also didn't they broke all of the ceasefires in the past anyways?

Its different now because its proposed  under Trumps new plan for a  ceasefire 

Putin will be under different pressure because according to Trump " he wants peace " 

I dont think Putin wants peace but Russia can also gain from it like US sanction relief so we may see agreement from the Ruskies

 

[pmp10]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

I guess the hope is they won't piss Trump off, as he'll give Ukraine nukes or something.

There is also the carrot of sanctions lifting.
I'm just not sure how much peace it can buy. 

[BruceVC]

45 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

There is also the carrot of sanctions lifting.
I'm just not sure how much peace it can buy. 

Yes Russia will gain through sanction relief and  a new and " better " relationship with the US under Trump 

But end of the day Ukraine will gain much more from this because the war will end

Ukraine will agree not to join NATO and they will accept they have lost Donbas and Crimea but they keep 80% of there country and retain there sovereignty going forward 

This US proposal is much better than the war continuing where Russia has the ongoing  military advantage around attrition and resources 

 

 

[Elerond]

As in official Russian narrative sanctions have had zero impact, lifting them will not be seen as win and I am pretty sure that Russia wants to have win to sell their people especially know as Ukraine has problems thanks to its allies kind efforts

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

As in official Russian narrative sanctions have had zero impact, lifting them will not be seen as win and I am pretty sure that Russia wants to have win to sell their people especially know as Ukraine has problems thanks to its allies kind efforts

But why would anyone actually believe that Western sanctions havent hurt the Russian economy?

Thats just the expected Russian propaganda and of course the Ruskies would say that because its a part of the misinformation to Russian citizens

There have been several Russian comments about the future and around ending Western\US sanctions or an expectation to end sanctions 

https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-stagnating-but-that-wont-force-it-to-end-the-war-251296

Current Russian inflation is on 9.9% and its repo rate is 21% ( Trump ran on " high" US inflation of 3.5 %)

Western sanctions dont mean the  Russian economy is going to collapse, South Africa during Apartheid had sanctions for decades and our economy never collapsed but it hurt the long-term growth and sustainability  of our overall economy

There are different types of sanctions but all sanctions take time before you see the impact 

The Russians definitely want sanction relief despite what some ideologues and propagandists may say 

 

 

[Elerond]

1 minute ago, BruceVC said:

But why would anyone actually believe that Western sanctions havent hurt the Russian economy?

Question is about optics

How will Russian leadership sell that they got about million men killed or maimed in war and all they gained was lift of sanctions put on them because of that war especially when you take account that Russian leadership has constantly said that sanctions have not have any impact.

Even in Russia that will cause unrest among the people