Gaza - War does not determine who is right - only who is left

[HoonDing]

Those videos of missiles passing over Lebanon during wedding parties are pretty wild

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Those videos of missiles passing over Lebanon during wedding parties are pretty wild

DJ with the Nasrallah samples, nice. 

 

[Malcador]

 

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lxkpekedo

 

The amount of SM fake news and sensationalism on this war from both sides  is predictable but still unhelpful and intense 

I am only trying to follow credible and relevant media  updates and avoiding SM updates as much as reasonably possible 

And it seems that Israel has achieved air supremacy over much of  Iran, Im not sure how much longer it can really go on with that military objective achieved 

 

"Israel already says it has gained control of the skies over Tehran. It has been a complete mismatch in the air - with no sign of Iran's few ageing fighter jets even getting off the ground.

Israel's fleet of modern, US-made fighters have been able to drop guided bombs from short range - with apparently little concern of being shot down.

Much of the threat from Iran's air defences was destroyed in an earlier Israeli strike in October - using longer range "stand-off" weapons to target Iran's S300 missile systems.

In recent days Israel's air force has continued to target ground-based radar and launchers. Even before the attack got under way, Israel had intelligence operatives inside Iran preparing to disrupt its response.

Mossad agents used drones smuggled into the country to target Iran's remaining air defence systems.

Israeli attacks also wiped out many in Iran's top level of command, which would have also undermined Iran's response. "

 

[Malcador]

They'll restore the Shah soon 

[BruceVC]

54 minutes ago, Malcador said:

They'll restore the Shah soon 

The Israelis wont achieve regime change despite Netanyahu's rhetoric and the Shah was very corrupt

But the objective of Iran abandoning its nuclear program is realistic with the IAEA having full and unrestricted access to all sites 

I imagine thats how you ensure Iran sticks to the agreement?

 

[Elerond]

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

The Israelis wont achieve regime change despite Netanyahu's rhetoric and the Shah was very corrupt

But the objective of Iran abandoning its nuclear program is realistic with the IAEA having full and unrestricted access to all sites 

I imagine thats how you ensure Iran sticks to the agreement?

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
 

"When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome.

But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment."

 

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Elerond said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
 

"When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome.

But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment."

 

But the issue is how close they are to enriching Uranium to 90% and how the credible UN nuclear body the IAEA has been not received full access to sites or the necessary information

Im not that concerned with what Israel or the US thinks, its what the IAEA says

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn840275p5yo

 "  Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added.

The agency also said it could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites. " 

 

 

[Elerond]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But the issue is how close they are to enriching Uranium to 90% and how the credible UN nuclear body the IAEA has been not received full access to sites or the necessary information

Im not that concerned with what Israel or the US thinks, its what the IAEA says

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn840275p5yo

 "  Last week, the IAEA said in its latest quarterly report that Iran had amassed enough uranium enriched up to 60% purity - a short, technical step away from weapons grade, or 90% - to potentially make nine nuclear bombs. That was "a matter of serious concern", given the proliferation risks, it added.

The agency also said it could not provide assurance that the Iranian nuclear programme was exclusively peaceful because Iran was not complying with its investigation into man-made uranium particles discovered by inspectors at three undeclared nuclear sites. " 

 

 

US resigned from nuclear agreement and ensured that other countries can't either to remove sanctions as promised, which is why IAEA doesn't have full access.

Also Israel has failed to hit Iran's more advanced nuclear lab Fordow and US official estimate is that Israel can't hit it without US help and without destroying it Israel isn't able to really effect Iran's capacity to produce weapon grade uranium and nuclear weapons.

[BruceVC]

Just now, Elerond said:

US resigned from nuclear agreement and ensured that other countries can't either to remove sanctions as promised, which is why IAEA doesn't have full access.

Also Israel has failed to hit Iran's more advanced nuclear lab Fordow and US official estimate is that Israel can't hit it without US help and without destroying it Israel isn't able to really effect Iran's capacity to produce weapon grade uranium and nuclear weapons.

Yes, I agree considering the reality now it was a mistake for the US to leave the nuclear agreement because nothing changed after that and now the outcome is Israel attacking Iran to end the program. So the US staying in the agreement would have been better

But we cant change the past and it doesn't mean you cant end the Iran's nuclear program now. Its a choice Iran can make 

Iran doesn't need nukes and if they ended there fundamentalist and militant anti-US and anti-Israel objectives they could be as prosperous and influential as Saudi Arabia in the ME, they have the potential, work ethos and resources 

But as a Persian state and not an Arab one 

 

 

[HoonDing]

Bibi will use nukes if Drump doesn't help.

But even the B-2 can't destroy Fordow. It's inside a mountain.

Edited Tuesday at 03:31 PM by HoonDing

[Malcador]

Diplomacy in the modern age

 

[HoonDing]

Well he does need a "W"

[Malcador]

 

 

[Gorgon]

How does it end tho. Neither side is capable of invading and occupying the other.  Is it just another drone and missile shootout that goes on forever, like Ukraine. 

Jesus wept. 

[Gorgon]

On 6/16/2025 at 5:44 AM, Malcador said:

DJ with the Nasrallah samples, nice. 

 

The world needs more saxophone

[Malcador]

20 minutes ago, Gorgon said:

How does it end tho. Neither side is capable of invading and occupying the other.  Is it just another drone and missile shootout that goes on forever, like Ukraine. 

Jesus wept. 

Probably hoping they kill the Ayatollah and then there's an uprising and Iran becomes Libya 2.0

[HoonDing]

RUS-UKR, PAK-IND and now this conflict really show how useless air defense systems are against modern jets/drones, let alone crazy spec-ops. Taiwan is basically completely cooked.

Edited Tuesday at 07:01 PM by HoonDing

[Malcador]

Well Iran never bothered investing into AD, can argue what's the point as they have Israel and their US lackeys on them. Unlesss they have something to magically defeat stealth on the F35, not much they can do

[Zoraptor]

Never bothered isn't quite fair, their most advanced system may be late 90s tech but they were actively blocked from getting more advanced systems. It's also taken most of the SAM output of the west to have success/ 'success' with Ukraine. Can't really expect Iran to compete with that. 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Gorgon said:

How does it end tho. Neither side is capable of invading and occupying the other.  Is it just another drone and missile shootout that goes on forever, like Ukraine. 

Jesus wept. 

But Israel doesn't need to invade Iran to end its nuclear program or occupy Iran 

Its nothing like Ukraine, that was a massive land invasion, occupation and recreation of Ukraine's sovereign  borders 

 

[Malcador]

Yes, true forgot about sanctions on them as well.  Better internal security would have helped them a lot here. 

A lot of US tankers in the air today/tonight 

[Gorgon]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

But Israel doesn't need to invade Iran to end its nuclear program or occupy Iran 

Its nothing like Ukraine, that was a massive land invasion, occupation and recreation of Ukraine's sovereign  borders 

 

 

Israel has struck now because their opponents are weakened, but what about the long view. The problem isn't solved, just postponed. 

[ShadySands]

I just hope @Katphood is okay

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Gorgon said:

 

Israel has struck now because their opponents are weakened, but what about the long view. The problem isn't solved, just postponed. 

Yes the long-term problem of Iran and Israel ever being friends and not being  hostile to each other  is not likely at least with the current governments on both sides 

But again and I dont mean  to keep repeating myself but this  current military campaign can and will end if Iran capitulates and abandons its nuclear program 

Im not sure why anyone thinks this is such a difficult objective to achieve?

Its like the Israeli military campaign into Lebanon, that ended when Hezbollah agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel, it was a relatively easy objective to understand and achieve

Here's an interesting link about the military benefits with Israel having air supremacy over Iran 

https://time.com/7294919/israel-air-supremacy-tehran-iran/

The only reason I can think of that would change Israel achieving its stated objective is Iran is able to do massive damage to Israel with its missile counter-offensive and then Israel also agrees to end this war because of the cost to them?