Gaza - War does not determine who is right - only who is left

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

To be fair to them, when the formal investigation was launched a decent number of 'rules based order' countries did say they'd enforce it against Bibi/ Gallant as a matter of course, if warrants were issued- the Dutch and Italians at least off the top of my head. That does rely on them being dumb enough to go to those countries though, so it's a fairly low risk statement in terms of having to follow through. UK and Germany, well, they seem so far to be hoping the issue will just disappear so they don't have to commit. And obviously the US was never going to be exactly pleased with the indictments let alone enforce them.

There are certainly a few things which may get interesting as a result- eg those countries that have laws against weapons trade with war criminals, or if Netanyahu decides to turn up to the UNGA again next year. Not like the US would arrest him, but even with the ICC not being a UN body having a wanted war criminal address the UN General Assembly would be... interesting, if only to see how many walk out in protest vs the number doing it for Iran or similar.

Im sure Putin has  attended  UNGA or similar international meetings since his warrant was issued?

Anyone with an ICC warrant  just avoids countries that are part of the ICC

 

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

I'm sure the rules based international order will follow the rule of law and enforce those warrants.

Trudeau said Canada would

But Pollievre basically wants us to obey Israel and he's our next PM.

[pmp10]

On 11/22/2024 at 5:27 AM, BruceVC said:

Anyone with an ICC warrant  just avoids countries that are part of the ICC

That's not likely to last.
I bet Bibi will show up in Berlin or Warsaw before too long.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

That's not likely to last.
I bet Bibi will show up in Berlin or Warsaw before too long.

Yes, its possible but then those countries that dont enforce an ICC warrant must leave the ICC because whats the point if you dont enforce its warrants

We went through that embarrassing reality in 2016 when South  Africa refused to enforce the warrant for AL-Bashir from Sudan and then the ANC decided to leave the ICC because at  the time they considered the ICC   " an instrument of  regime change "

But this decision was blocked by  our  high courts which ruled the ANC cant unilaterally decide to leave the ICC without Parliamentary approval

Now we love the ICC and all countries must respect its decisions, amazing how much  you can change your views in 8 years 

 

Edited November 23, 2024 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

11 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes, its possible but then those countries that dont enforce an ICC warrant must leave the ICC because whats the point if you dont enforce its warrants

We went through that embarrassing reality in 2016 when South  Africa refused to enforce the warrant for AL-Bashir from Sudan and then the ANC decided to leave the ICC because at  the time they considered the ICC   " an instrument of  regime change "

But this decision was blocked by  our  high courts which ruled the ANC cant unilaterally decide to leave the ICC without Parliamentary approval

Now we love the ICC and all countries must respect its decisions, amazing how much  you can change your views in 8 years 

 

That's why monarchies are the superior form of government... Politicians and governments come and go every few years

[BruceVC]

41 minutes ago, Gorth said:

That's why monarchies are the superior form of government... Politicians and governments come and go every few years

Dont joke but our latest " socialist\progressive " political party is called MK which is a stolen name from ANC military wing during Apartheid which is called MK (uMkhonto weSizwe )

And its leader is the former SA president Jacob Zuma who was  deeply complicit  in the worst corruption we have ever seen  from 2011-2017 which was called the " Stare Capture " era

Anyway MK has this confusing political manifesto thats a combination of openly anti-Constitutional  objectives and bringing back tribal laws because according to them " Democracy has failed black people "

And 2 of   the things they want to do is change the Constitution so we end up with a Parliamentary sovereignty system  which to them means Parliament and politicians arent accountable to the Constitution because  "the Constitution is responsible for inequality "  and then they want tribal chiefs to be able to create there own customary laws that surpass  our  own normal laws 

Can you imagine the state  South Africa  would be in  if we abandoned the checks and balances that the Constitution provides for politicians  and we no longer maintained our society through laws like how the  judicial system works

The good news is they only got 14% in the last national election and there political growth  remains to be seen as future elections unfold 

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

18 hours ago, pmp10 said:

That's not likely to last.
I bet Bibi will show up in Berlin or Warsaw before too long.

Bibi is a monomaniac who'd love to showcase his international support to the world, but that narcissism does also mean he won't take risks when it's his arse on the line. In theory, he could not fly through the airspace of any country honouring the ICC warrant (irrespective of him landing) either*. If Greece says they'd arrest him then the route to Germany or Hungary becomes extremely convoluted. Not like he can fly over Syria/ Iraq/ Iran to avoid Turkey/ Greece/ Italy/ France, after all.

Indeed, you could theoretically get a situation where he couldn't get to the US due to being denied transit. Chances of that happening practically aren't high since you could almost certainly rely on someone turning a blind eye, especially if leant on by the US. The almost certainly part is likely to be enough for him to go to the US, since that's big stakes, but to hobnob with Orban? Not so much.

*which is why Putin won't go to, say, Brazil. Whether Brazil would arrest him is only half the relevant threat.

Edited November 24, 2024 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c75lpzq0re1o 
Ceasefire effective between Israel and Hezbollah from yesterday

"Under the deal announced on Tuesday and brokered by the US, there will be a 60-day period during which Israel will gradually withdraw its troops from Lebanon's south as Lebanese government forces regain control of an area currently held by Hezbollah.

It is expected that Hezbollah fighters and weapons will be removed from the area south of the Litani River, a boundary established at the end of the last Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006."

Hopefully it will stand and Hezbollah will not fire rockers into Israel, no change to the military conflict in Gaza but considering the huge military and resource losses that Hezbollah has suffered its understandable this was no longer a demand

[BruceVC]

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-01-15-24/index.html 

Real progress around the hostage release deal, both sides are gaining something and are in  agreement on the terms 

Some of Netanyahu's right-wing ministers are not happy with this deal  but he has enough political  support to survive them leaving the coalition if they do 

But compromises have to made to get the hostages released so this  is good news 

And I  think Trumps deadline made a big difference in expediting this agreement so well done to Trump

[Malcador]

38 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

And I  think Trumps deadline made a big difference in expediting this agreement so well done to Trump

Who knows how much,  well and how it played in. Seems like he'll get the credit though. Bit embarrassing for Blinken but oh well. Although this is essentially the same deal from May, no?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/15/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/#link-RO4YL25X2ZB6DJP3TWPCCUIFTE

Edited yesterday at 05:43 PM by Malcador

[BruceVC]

39 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Who knows how much,  well and how it played in. Seems like he'll get the credit though. Bit embarrassing for Blinken but oh well. Although this is essentially the same deal from May, no?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/15/israel-war-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-news-hamas/#link-RO4YL25X2ZB6DJP3TWPCCUIFTE

Yes, its not all because  of Trump and Blinken deserves credit for his tireless effort and Qatar also needs recognition 

But I dont think its a coincidence that 10 days ago Trump was threatening " all Hell would break out " and now after 15 months we see this agreement 

Pressure was also put on  Israel as I mentioned but it was done privately to agree to terms like  Palestinian prisoners being released and Netanyahu wouldnt have wanted to do this because several of them would be implicated in the killing of Israelis but I dont think he had a choice 

Trump is a good deal-maker and loves to think of himself like that and  that type of hubris has its positive aspects. Trump didnt want to become US president with the hostage deal unresolved so he made point of putting real pressure on Israel 

End of the day if it happens both sides will have gained something and that makes sense in the interests of compromise 

 

[Malcador]

Wonder what they promised to Israel. West Bank annexation and cleansing getting US approval ?

Actually missed the more obvious idea that Bibi was just stalling to give Trump a win

Edited yesterday at 07:22 PM by Malcador

[Malcador]

0x0

Edited yesterday at 07:08 PM by Malcador
Damn double post

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Malcador said:

Wonder what they promised to Israel. West Bank annexation and cleansing getting US approval ?

Actually missed the more obvious idea that Bibi was just stalling to give Trump a win

Both sides are gaining and as usual much more Palestinians will be released for each Israeli and the IDF  has to withdraw from parts of Gaza

The butthurt from the Israeli far right is hilarious but  compromises needed to be made. We had no progress around 15 months of war so this makes sense 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/world/middleeast/ceasefire-netanyahu-israel.html

 

" Critics of Mr. Netanyahu’s government, including many of the families of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, have repeatedly accused the prime minister of sabotaging past efforts to reach a deal in order to preserve his coalition — the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel’s history — and remain in power.

Mr. Netanyahu and his loyalists have blamed Hamas for past failures to reach a deal. The current agreement was expected to gain government approval even without the support of the two far-right parties, since a majority of cabinet members are in favor of it. "

 

 

Edited 16 hours ago by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

Actually missed the more obvious idea that Bibi was just stalling to give Trump a win

I was thinking about this but I dont think it was big part of the Israeli decision 

 

The one thing  we know is that Netanyahu appreciates staying in power and with his far right coalition partners he was and is firmly in  power

And this deal weakens that political reality because this is not what many of the far right wanted and they now threatening to topple his government but they wont be able to because he still has enough support. I doubt Netanyahu would risk his own political sustainability just so that Trump looks good 

The link I posted discusses this and the main reasons for Netanyahu and Hamas agreeing to this were

 

"Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the emerging deal, which was negotiated in secret, the official said conditions for it were created by the killing by Israeli forces of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, in October and the increasing isolation of Hamas as Israel began in recent months to dismantle the axis of Iranian-backed proxies around its borders, including Hezbollah, Hamas’s ally in Lebanon

The official pointed to increasing pressure on Hamas from the suffering Palestinian population in Gaza with the onset of another winter.

He also acknowledged the pressure to achieve a deal from the United States. Officials in the Biden administration had been pressing for a deal that would become part of the departing president’s legacy. And President-elect Trump had warned that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if Hamas does not release the hostages before he assumes office on Jan. 20." 

 

 

 

[uuuhhii]

wouldn't they just keep occupying and setting more land as usual

this is what happened after last ceasefire

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, uuuhhii said:

wouldn't they just keep occupying and setting more land as usual

this is what happened after last ceasefire

Thats more an objective of the Israeli far right, they want free reign to occupy all the Palestinian territories permanently  

But that was never the US view or what they would support 

And this hostage deal confirms that, they voting today in Israel and all evidence points at the majority of the Knesset  supporting this deal and the Israeli far right losing out which is good news 

https://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-cabinet-to-vote-on-gaza-ceasefire-deal/7938786.html