Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Mamoulian War]

Russia signed a pact with North Korea, about defending each other and supplying each other with weapons. South Korea has responded, that they will be reconsidering arming Ukraine, which again lead Russia to spew empty threats.

 

Oh and Russia has raised taxes by few hundred percent, in a historically unprecedented move.

[HoonDing]

Crap balloon vs K-pop balloon

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Oh and Russia has raised taxes by few hundred percent, in a historically unprecedented move.

https://en.thebell.io/the-hidden-reasons-behind-russias-mega-tax-rises/

 

Yes I see that, another consequence of Western sanctions on the Russian economy and the cost of the war

• The tax changes reflect a wholesale change in Russia’s philosophy when it comes to fiscal policy, said Buklemishev. For the last 20 years, the financial orthodoxy and core ideology was that Russia saved in the good years and then spent what it accumulated during rainy days or on grand investment projects. But this approach no longer holds up, because it is impossible to rely on being able to quickly raise funds to cover shortfalls without access to the Western financial market and convertible currencies. That means Russia can only fund planned new expenses by raising taxes. 
• Buklemishev is skeptical of whether the Chinese yuan, which has become a vital part of the Russian financial system since the invasion of Ukraine, can fill the gap. “First, this is not a convertible currency. Second, it's hard work placing yuan in liquid instruments that generate normal returns. Third, we don’t know what will happen with the yuan as a currency over any longer-term perspective, because it is managed slightly differently from any other currency in which we have invested,” he said.

 

[Malcador]

ROK has some surplus, everyone seems to think they'll go all in for everything to Ukraine, though.

[Mamoulian War]

According to satellite footage, DPRK have available 5 millions artillery shells for Russia. And Kin Jong-Un is IMHO the only person insane enough to really go all in for the ability to build their own nukes. We’ll see how serious pickle it is, as soon as South Korea decides to give their response to the situation escalating on the Korean Peninsula. We might be currently in a world tension similar to the Cuban Crisis. Depending on what has Putin promised to Kim.

[Mamoulian War]

The question of recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism has been opened at US senate again, after Putin’s lovey dovey with Kim.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/21/7461906/

[Mamoulian War]

It did not take long, and the new collaborant government of Slovakia started its first political process. They started a case against former Minister of Defense Jaroslav Naď for donating Mig-29s and one S-300 system to Ukraine.

[HoonDing]

Guess they shouldn't have beaten them at the Euros

[Malcador]

On 6/21/2024 at 1:25 PM, Mamoulian War said:

The question of recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism has been opened at US senate again, after Putin’s lovey dovey with Kim.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/21/7461906/

Good theater, didn't go anywhere in 2022, if I recall, can't see this going anywhere different now.  Wouldn't this impact the EU states still getting Russian gas?

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/

Good thing he's not going to win.

[Mamoulian War]

ICC issued warrant against Shoigu and Gerassimov.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/25/7462498/

[Sarex]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/06/25/reports-come-rq-4b-shot-down-over-the-black-sea-by-a-mig-31/

[Zoraptor]

Pretty skeptical about that- it was reported yesterday without any actual evidence and there's been basically nothing since. Fighterbomber was one of the main sources and while their reliability for Russian losses is good their record for losses inflicted by Russia is nowhere near as good.

[BruceVC]

14 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/

Good thing he's not going to win.

Trump could win, no one knows for sure

And this article is nothing official and its more a suggestion  but it puts pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to end the war if Trump decides to do it 

Putins demands have been very unreasonable so this might put pressure on him to really get to  the negotiation table, Im not sure how Putin will respond to this type of threat 

 

" We tell the Ukrainians, 'You've got to come to the table, and if you don't come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'" he said. "And you tell Putin, 'He's got to come to the table and if you don't come to the table, then we'll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field." 

[Malcador]

Thought this was fake at first.

 

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/artc-israel-in-talks-to-transfer-up-to-8-patriots-to-ukraine-report

Good news for Ukraine there, they can probably have the front line covered well with that

Edited June 27 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

 

[HoonDing]

They better win before November!

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

 

Its interesting how the entire Russian military offensive around Kharkiv  has stalled and now looks like its reversed in certain areas  

There  was  lots  of exaggeration about the success  of that campaign and the reasons for it but I do remember Ukraine  openly acknowledging they had to make strategic retreats in several areas because they lacked  the military equipment. But that was before the US $60 billion had been  approved  or arrived 

The US aid  to Ukraine is critical to them being able to stop the Russian offensive.  Before the invasion I use to think Russia had  an effective  and well trained military but I dont think that anymore after the last 3 years   of warfare  

The Russians  can effectively use cannon-fodder  and meat-grinder  tactics but even that has its limits 

 

 

 

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Before the invasion I use to think Russia had  an effective  and well trained military but I dont think that anymore after the last 3 years   of warfare  

And yet they still try to sell us that Ukraine is saving us from WW3.

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

And yet they still try to sell us that Ukraine is saving us from WW3.

Yes  but Russia can still invade  and occupy a country, it just depends on the resistance they meet and the type of warfare  the Russians adopt. They  have lots  of ways they can devastate cities,  look at Aleppo,   so its  not  like anyone wants to be invaded  by Russia 

 

I have  also  never really believed  the whole WW3 narrative but thats not why  I support  Ukraine 

[Zoraptor]

The 'Kharkov offensive' was clearly never intended to actually take Kharkov. All sources including western/ pro Ukrainian agreed that Russia was only utilising a small fraction of its available forces, and that hasn't changed.

The WW3 thing isn't hyperbole. Can't get much closer to WW3 than Russian troops massing on the outskirts of New York.

Edited June 29 by Zoraptor

[kanisatha]

21 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes  but Russia can still invade  and occupy a country, it just depends on the resistance they meet and the type of warfare  the Russians adopt. They  have lots  of ways they can devastate cities,  look at Aleppo,   so its  not  like anyone wants to be invaded  by Russia 

 

I have  also  never really believed  the whole WW3 narrative but thats not why  I support  Ukraine 

I think people far too often forget or overlook the nuclear dimension in these discussions, simply closing their minds to the possibility of nuclear weapons use because it is just too terrifying for their minds to contemplate and thereby assuming that surely no one would actually use them. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to those people, but I very strongly believe the actual use of nukes will be part of a global war in the coming years.

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

I think people far too often forget or overlook the nuclear dimension in these discussions, simply closing their minds to the possibility of nuclear weapons use because it is just too terrifying for their minds to contemplate and thereby assuming that surely no one would actually use them. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news to those people, but I very strongly believe the actual use of nukes will be part of a global war in the coming years.

The downside of getting old I guess... when I was young, the constant, imminent end of the worlds was a concern. Now... meh, big loss if humanity wipes itself out. A failed evolutionary branch similar to the Neanderthals?

[kanisatha]

12 minutes ago, Gorth said:

The downside of getting old I guess... when I was young, the constant, imminent end of the worlds was a concern. Now... meh, big loss if humanity wipes itself out. A failed evolutionary branch similar to the Neanderthals?

Oh, hey, I'm totally with you on this. I was making my point based on my prefessional judgment as an international security scholar. But at a personal level, I'm completely with you (though destruction by alien species invasion would be more fun, and I'd get to witness first contact in my lifetime which would be very cool). I too am extremely disillusioned by the human species.

It's why my retirement dream is to buy a large horse ranch in northern Wyoming so I can sit on my porch with a cooler of beer and a faithful dog, and have a front row seat to twilight's last gleaming. Should be a great show.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

The downside of getting old I guess... when I was young, the constant, imminent end of the worlds was a concern. Now... meh, big loss if humanity wipes itself out. A failed evolutionary branch similar to the Neanderthals?

The issue of this statement is, that most probably, we wiped out Neanderthals as well, like thousands of other species