Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Mamoulian War]

On 2/23/2024 at 10:38 PM, Zoraptor said:

Last time it happened I suggested S-200 as the only plausible option if it was Ukraine. Still a lot of problems with that though- right on the edge of effective range and S-200 launchers are fixed, not mobile. At ~270km from the front line there's a very narrow range of places it could have been launched from, basically a semi circle around Vuhledar (Kurakhove <--> Veliyka Novosilka). While they might be able to jury rig a launcher it would not be trivial since the rocket is 7t and 10m long. Can't just bung it into a S-300 TEL or similar.

There are numerous claims, that UA is retrofitting all of their S-200s, with modern electronics, and that currently the only common thing it has with soviet S-200 is husk and explosives. And there are also rumours, that they can be launched from a specially jointly developed NATO-UA launcher, which can launch various ex-soviet and NATO standard missiles. Someone already talked about the name of this project, but, I can’t remember it.

 

the first half is for me pretty plausible. More, than friendly fire. As A-50 airplane’s primary purpose was to scan sky for UA missiles and drones, and AD batteries. It is simply hard to believe, that they would allow their own AD, which they commanded, to shoot at themselves.

the second half, it seems a little bit unrealistic at the moment? Unless someone knows, the exact name of this project, and can confirm/deny if it is real or not.

 

Also, there have been first official talk about UA KIAs, since 2022. Zelenskyi has stated in interview, that number of UA KIAs is 31000, and number of RU KIAs is 180000. He did not specified number of WIAs nor MIAs on UA side. On the RU side, they are counting with 500000 WIA+MIA combined.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/25/7443637/

 

 

[Malcador]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240225-zelensky-says-ukraine-s-counteroffensive-plans-leaked-to-russia

Sure the PR about it and perhaps the target being obvious had nowt to do with it.  Sadly means no trailer for the 2024 offensive, I guess

Budanov also stating they know how Navalny died -

Not much else interesting from the forum this weekend. 

[Zoraptor]

Not sure the exact method that Navalny died means that much; he wasn't sent to an arctic penal colony to take the air. Well, not in the classic sense. Only real significance is Budanov contradicting the leaders who insist Putin personally strangled Navalny while he was saving some cute kittens, collecting clothes for orphans and personally rewriting the Russian Constitution to make Pro NATO studies a compulsory school subject.

Edited February 25 by Zoraptor

[Sarex]

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/an-endgame-in-ukraine-may-be-fast-approaching

[xzar_monty]

9 hours ago, Sarex said:

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/an-endgame-in-ukraine-may-be-fast-approaching

I started working in journalism in the 1980s, and I'd just ike to point out that as far as things like plausible deniability and other legal manouvers are concerned, when you write that something may be happening, you basically have your backside covered. If something has a .000000000000001% probability, technically it means that it may be happening soon.

Edited February 26 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

15 hours ago, Sarex said:

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/an-endgame-in-ukraine-may-be-fast-approaching

"All this makes the prospects of a decisive Ukrainian victory seem very slim. Even if Ukraine can somehow regain the initiative, it seems very doubtful that it could ever gain the degree of military superiority that it would need to achieve its stated political objective of restoring its 1991 borders. "

I believe even Zelensky wasn't that optimistic on returning to the 1991 borders in the Fox interview.

Kuleba always has the best ideas. 

[Zoraptor]

The first Ukrainian Abrams has been fairly comprehensively destroyed. By what who knows, since the footage seems to have been shot by a potato then captured off the screen by a second potato. Identifiable and shown well and truly on fire though.

[Mamoulian War]

Macron is the first western leader, to speak about the possibility of deployment of western troops to Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/27/7443873/

He also announced coalition for providing medium to long range ammunition to ukraine for deep strikes against Russia.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/27/7443877/
 

although Scholtz still refuses to provide Taurus missiles

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/26/7443813/

[xzar_monty]

Russian tourists spotted en masse in North Korea. I think there's something both hilarious and hideous in that, and apparently it is yet more evidence of a fairly profound change.

[Malcador]

Ukraine must be in poor shape for Macron to make that threat. 

[Sarex]

The statement also triggered an avalanche of denials from other leaders.

[bugarup]

News from Mordor. Russian billionaire who owns a number of metallurgy factories, things kinda essential for war machine, detained on account of him allegedly illegally privatizing them in the nineties, factories nationalized. Wonder if it's a start or just an episode. Please be a start.

[HoonDing]

"Ukraine must be in poor shape for Macron to make that threat. "

Guess they will surrender together

[Malcador]

12 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

"Ukraine must be in poor shape for Macron to make that threat. "

Guess they will surrender together

Alexander made it to Paris.

[xzar_monty]

Putin's speech today doesn't rank all that high on the Periclean scale, but I suppose it doesn't matter. It also didn't contain any new or otherwise pertinent information, as far as I've gathered from the reports I've seen so far, but I suppose that doesn't matter, either. Transnistria wasn't mentioned at all, I think, but I could be wrong there.

[Mamoulian War]

On 2/27/2024 at 3:04 PM, Sarex said:

The statement also triggered an avalanche of denials from other leaders.

On the other hand, Some of the other leaders, thanked him, that he opened this question. He also stated in his latest interview, that he was very serious, when he spoken these words.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444383/

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Putin's speech today doesn't rank all that high on the Periclean scale, but I suppose it doesn't matter. It also didn't contain any new or otherwise pertinent information, as far as I've gathered from the reports I've seen so far, but I suppose that doesn't matter, either. Transnistria wasn't mentioned at all, I think, but I could be wrong there.

You are not wrong about Transnistria.

 

but in his other speech, he mentioned tax increase

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444363/

[Malcador]

Nice tiff with Scholz revealing French and UK personnel are helping with cruise missiles. Although, surprised they need to be in country.

[Zoraptor]

That is the problem, what they're doing there. Don't need them to transport the missile, don't need them to attach it to the plane. OTOH, someone does have to put in the targeting information. SCALP/ Storm Shadow are flight plan based, so it's not a trivial task, and they're not supposed to be used outside of Ukraine. Plenty of reason to suspect that's what they're doing by elimination, because what else would call for boots on the ground and get the French and Brits upset when it's revealed? It's also unfortunate timing with Macron's recent comments about sending in the troops.

Or to put it another way, imagine if a UK warship got sunk by the Houthis and the Russians were found to be not just supplying the P-800 used, nor just giving them satellite information, but were entering the targeting information. New Zealand may be near antipodal to London but even we would be deafened by the outraged squealing and demands for retaliation and invocation of Article 5 for the obvious Act of War. If it were a French ship we'd probably have a surreptitious giggle about the whole thing, given who committed the only act of international terrorism to occur here to that time.

[HoonDing]

thank NATO for making this relevant again

[pmp10]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Nice tiff with Scholz revealing French and UK personnel are helping with cruise missiles. Although, surprised they need to be in country.

That was always going to happen given all that advanced weaponry provided.
No-one was about to learn all the intricacies of western air-defense systems within few months.

More interesting is if the rumored French combat contractors are really present there.

[Zoraptor]

French mercenaries being there is absolutely definite. That isn't really an issue though, so long as they're not employees of the French State. Or at least maintain some plausible deniability about the whole thing.

I don't think many people who are paying attention would be- at all- surprised to find NATO special forces present. You're just meant to pretend that they're not, and you're especially meant to pretend they're not doing things like entering targeting information.

[pmp10]

I would think the whole point of officially admitting there are NATO troops present is to dispense with deniability.
That leaves the option open for a slippery-slope of reinforcements in case Ukraine starts to lose ground. 

[Malcador]

Canada may send some, under the right conditions and if the omens are good.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/under-the-right-conditions-canada-open-to-sending-noncombat-troops-to-ukraine-defence-minister-bill/article_eec6806c-d71d-11ee-91fb-ab92d0af803e.html

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

I would think the whole point of officially admitting there are NATO troops present is to dispense with deniability.
That leaves the option open for a slippery-slope of reinforcements in case Ukraine starts to lose ground. 

If that were the case it would likely be the reasoning in both respects. Though at that point we'd likely have to talk about things bilaterally rather than as NATO since it's clear that some members won't support it being troops sent under direct NATO command. Hence all the bilateral defence agreements Zelensky has been signing recently.