Ukraine Conflict - Those who can win a war well can rarely make a good peace and those who could make a good peace would never have won the war

[Malcador]

49 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The other issue is the supposed refusal of units to obey orders which has been reported on by western media

Was this the 3rd AB refusing to go into the city? I vaguely recall reading this but now cannot find it, feh.

NYT reporting - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html

https://archive.is/ep3wO

Surprised we're not seeing much crowing on Telegram by Russians though, if the prisoner haul is that great

Edited February 20 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

Yeah 3rd AB or 3rd separate; Azov, as was. There's a difference between sources as to whether they refused, or were never meant to go in in the first place- which seems to be broadly along lines of support for Zaluzhny and Sirsky respectively. The internal 3rd Brigade sources had them being ordered in for sure, but you can't preclude that being deliberate disinformation; indeed that would be distinctly plausible.

It seems extremely likely they were meant to at least hold the Coke Plant though, since that was very strong defensively and outside the pocket, so not in any imminent threat of being surrounded. Even if they decided a different defensive line further back would be necessary in the longer term it was still an essential hold in the short term to cover an orderly retreat. Losing it too early suggests something went very wrong; either a refusal or a panic. Neither of which is good.

Dunno about the lack of crowing, the Russians have been kind of weird about prisoners throughout the war. They could have easily disprove the Snake Island fight to the death story immediately but seemed to do so both accidentally and belatedly. The only time they seem to have done much crowing was about Azovstal where there were a lot of prisoners all in one go; and those prisoners were Azov. While I doubt the 110th were overly popular with the DPR troops the Russians proper don't seem to have borne them any particular ill will, and they seem to have been surrendering in dribs and drabs such that the Russians don't even know how many they were taking.

Edited February 20 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

19 hours ago, Malcador said:

Was this the 3rd AB refusing to go into the city? I vaguely recall reading this but now cannot find it, feh.

NYT reporting - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html

https://archive.is/ep3wO

Surprised we're not seeing much crowing on Telegram by Russians though, if the prisoner haul is that great

Official UA statement on that article.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/21/7442943/

It is not the first article by NYT, which is heavily disputed.

[Valsuelm]

@BruceVC
 

Hi Bruce... it's been awhile.

Hope you've been well.

The above is from October 2022.

First, Wow.. time flies... doesn't seem that long ago that I was last here. I didn't mean to disappear, and I've been thinking about popping back in for awhile, but life has been quite busy.

Second, and more importantly. I'm curious... have you realized that Russia has effectively won in Ukraine yet? And that the media that told you that Ukraine ever had a snowball's chance in hell of winning was lying to you?

I'm genuinely curious.

[Valsuelm]

On 2/19/2024 at 9:25 AM, BruceVC said:

Here  is a  good analysis from  Fareed  Zakaria about Carlons comparison where  he suggested Russia has better cities than the US,  its only 6  minutes long

Also curious...

Did you actually watch or listen to the entirety of Tucker's presentation that is referenced here? Or did you just watch CNN's take on it?

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Valsuelm said:

Also curious...

Did you actually watch or listen to the entirety of Tucker's presentation that is referenced here? Or did you just watch CNN's take on it?

Its  not CNN take, Fareed  Zakaria is a CNN host  who has a specific show  for 1 hour a week and he also contributes towards other media sources

I tried to watch Tucker's interview but I fell asleep listening to  Putin's ramblings about  history from hundreds  of years  ago but what   parts of Fareed's  opinion dont you agree with? Its only 6 minutes long and he is very factual about where he disagrees with Carlson on 

 

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Valsuelm said:

@BruceVC
 

Hi Bruce... it's been awhile.

Hope you've been well.

The above is from October 2022.

First, Wow.. time flies... doesn't seem that long ago that I was last here. I didn't mean to disappear, and I've been thinking about popping back in for awhile, but life has been quite busy.

Second, and more importantly. I'm curious... have you realized that Russia has effectively won in Ukraine yet? And that the media that told you that Ukraine ever had a snowball's chance in hell of winning was lying to you?

I'm genuinely curious.

Hi Vals    

Nice  to hear  from  you again,  I dont have the interest or  energy for this debate.  If you were  more consistent  on this forum that would be a different story and I have these debates already on Codex

Needless  to say to my opinion  on any war is not based  on what the  media says because the media cant predict or tell the future  or how events change. Nothing has changed for me,  I still support the right for Ukraine to decide its  own future and I reject Russian nationalism and warmongering

 

 

[Valsuelm]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Hi Vals    

Nice  to hear  from  you again,  I dont have the interest or  energy for this debate.  If you were  more consistent  on this forum that would be a different story and I have these debates already on Codex

Needless  to say to my opinion  on any war is not based  on what the  media says because the media cant predict or tell the future  or how events change. Nothing has changed for me,  I still support the right for Ukraine to decide its  own future and I reject Russian nationalism and warmongering

 

 

Respectfully, I'm not really interested in a debate here either.

i was just curious if you'd caught up to reality yet.

The media you consume lies to you. As I stated, Russia already effectively won the war, in the summer of 2022, and that's not going to change. How you or I feel about Ukraine or Russia is somewhat irrelevant.

I am curious though, if you reject Russian nationalism, why do you embrace Ukrainian nationalism? What is your criteria for accepting one nation's nationalism but rejecting another's? I'm especially curious about this in the context of one nation having been around for the better part of 1000 years (a great many generations) in one form or another, and the other only having a history of about 30 years (only one generation). Aside from Russia, are there any other nations' nationalism that you reject?

[Valsuelm]

8 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Its  not CNN take, Fareed  Zakaria is a CNN host  who has a specific show  for 1 hour a week and he also contributes towards other media sources

I tried to watch Tucker's interview but I fell asleep listening to  Putin's ramblings about  history from hundreds  of years  ago but what   parts of Fareed's  opinion dont you agree with? Its only 6 minutes long and he is very factual about where he disagrees with Carlson on 

 

I'm well aware of who Fareed is, and he's paid by CNN.

Here's the thing Bruce...

A very large part of the reason why you and so many others are misinformed is that you allow others to do your thinking for you. Rather than watch Tucker's ~3 minute video discussing Russian subways and the like, you watch Fareed's ~6 minute video. A video that goes off on a tangent that Tucker wasn't really discussing. Now, it can be an interesting tangent to talk about, but it largely ignores the point that Tucker was making.

You almost never go to the primary source, whatever it is. You and most others allow CNN, FOX, MSNBC, BBC, Hollywood, IHeartRadio, NPR, The Guardian, and other billionaire/foreign owned media to filter your worldview for you. Sure, you can say it's Fareed you're listening to, but he's just an employee who serves the owners of the company he works for. By and large he's going to dish out information in a way that pleases them, else he'll be fired (like Tucker was).

Don't make the  mistake in thinking I'm pro Tucker here, because he's really not the point here. He was once a gatekeeper too, and to a degree still is. The point here is that Tucker's video is the primary source material that you did not watch. You watched someone else's interpretation of it, and from experience reading your views on things, that's just about all you ever do. You are getting second hand information (at best), when you could be getting the actual information.

Now, primary source material is indeed sometimes hard to find, but it is more often than not available, and really isn't too hard to find a lot of the time (like in this case). I strongly suggest you start to make a habit of seeking out that primary source material, and view/listen/watch/etc it.

Be warned, that if you do, you will soon find that you are being lied to by most of the media, and your worldview will no doubt change in time. It might even be painful for a bit to come to terms with what you discover (I was once asleep too). The good news, is you will start living in reality, as ugly as it might be, it's still more beautiful than the paradigm that the mainstream media is selling you. It's also a lot safer, as you'll be better aware of the real dangers out there, and not caught up in the boogie men that the billionaire/foreign/oligarch owned media wants you to fear.

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty looks like first step to hit army infrastructure in Russian territory by western weapons has been approved. UA will be free to hit whatever they deem necessary with F16s.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/22/7443032/

first pilots should finish the complete training around summer.

[Malcador]

Wouldn't want to be an F-16 pilot trying to bomb Rostov or something, even with Russia's shovel based AD.

[Mamoulian War]

15 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Wouldn't want to be an F-16 pilot trying to bomb Rostov or something, even with Russia's shovel based AD.

I think F-16s have enough long range ammunition type, to be able to hit military structures around Rostov, without leaving the Ukrainian airspace.  Although I bet, that the first targets would be in Bilhorod People’s Republic.

 

in other news, German Bundestag has voted in favour of providing long range weaponry, to be able to hit targets deep behind the front line. Some people say, that the wording of the bill can be interpreted that even Taurus could be provided to Ukraine. But I bet SPD will find few more reasons, why not to

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/22/7443158/

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

I think F-16s have enough long range ammunition type, to be able to hit military structures around Rostov, without leaving the Ukrainian airspace.  Although I bet, that the first targets would be in Bilhorod People’s Republic.

 

in other news, German Bundestag has voted in favour of providing long range weaponry, to be able to hit targets deep behind the front line. Some people say, that the wording of the bill can be interpreted that even Taurus could be provided to Ukraine. But I bet SPD will find few more reasons, why not to

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/22/7443158/

Any weapons for the Ukrainians is a good thing. But the most important thing they need now, more than anything else, is artillery (both tubes and shells).

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Any weapons for the Ukrainians is a good thing. But the most important thing they need now, more than anything else, is artillery (both tubes and shells).

Czech Republic found 800k - 1m combined NATO and Soviet shells, which can be transported right away. Canada already pledge to finance part of the transport.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/

Rumoured Iranian missiles actually delivered.  Now just to wait for the rumoured Su-35s to be delivered.

[BruceVC]

15 hours ago, Valsuelm said:

I'm well aware of who Fareed is, and he's paid by CNN.

Here's the thing Bruce...

A very large part of the reason why you and so many others are misinformed is that you allow others to do your thinking for you. Rather than watch Tucker's ~3 minute video discussing Russian subways and the like, you watch Fareed's ~6 minute video. A video that goes off on a tangent that Tucker wasn't really discussing. Now, it can be an interesting tangent to talk about, but it largely ignores the point that Tucker was making.

You almost never go to the primary source, whatever it is. You and most others allow CNN, FOX, MSNBC, BBC, Hollywood, IHeartRadio, NPR, The Guardian, and other billionaire/foreign owned media to filter your worldview for you. Sure, you can say it's Fareed you're listening to, but he's just an employee who serves the owners of the company he works for. By and large he's going to dish out information in a way that pleases them, else he'll be fired (like Tucker was).

Don't make the  mistake in thinking I'm pro Tucker here, because he's really not the point here. He was once a gatekeeper too, and to a degree still is. The point here is that Tucker's video is the primary source material that you did not watch. You watched someone else's interpretation of it, and from experience reading your views on things, that's just about all you ever do. You are getting second hand information (at best), when you could be getting the actual information.

Now, primary source material is indeed sometimes hard to find, but it is more often than not available, and really isn't too hard to find a lot of the time (like in this case). I strongly suggest you start to make a habit of seeking out that primary source material, and view/listen/watch/etc it.

Be warned, that if you do, you will soon find that you are being lied to by most of the media, and your worldview will no doubt change in time. It might even be painful for a bit to come to terms with what you discover (I was once asleep too). The good news, is you will start living in reality, as ugly as it might be, it's still more beautiful than the paradigm that the mainstream media is selling you. It's also a lot safer, as you'll be better aware of the real dangers out there, and not caught up in the boogie men that the billionaire/foreign/oligarch owned media wants you to fear.

I think you misunderstanding a  few things,  I did watch several of Tuckers short  videos on Russia just not the 4 hour interview   and I use to  watch some of his FOX news shows. I generally dont  watch him  because I find him to be a populist  and grandstander   but I dont   automatically disagree with him just because its him

No media house gives  me my opinion on things, the  media has some influence but end  of  the  day the  facts  and reality of things in the world  matter to me. Opinion journalism  is just that, sometimes  I agree and sometimes  I dont.  Carlson is mostly opinion journalism

I will give you an example,  he  made  a cringe video of  shopping in a Moscow  supermarket and claiming how "  cheap  food is compared  to the US" 

But thats factually incorrect, US food inflation is sitting on 2.6% and Russian food inflation is 8.1%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/food-inflation

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-inflation#:~:text=Cost of food in Russia,percent in May of 2023.

This is just one example,  basically he a $ multimillionaire shopping in Russia where the $ is much stronger  than the Ruble  but for the average Russian food prices are  much more  expensive and this is a consequence of the war and sanctions

So I use  primary  sources all the time before  I have an opinion on something and if Tucker thinks  "food is  cheaper in Russia "  its not, inflation primary sources dont lie 

 

 

 

[BruceVC]

16 hours ago, Valsuelm said:

Respectfully, I'm not really interested in a debate here either.

i was just curious if you'd caught up to reality yet.

The media you consume lies to you. As I stated, Russia already effectively won the war, in the summer of 2022, and that's not going to change. How you or I feel about Ukraine or Russia is somewhat irrelevant.

I am curious though, if you reject Russian nationalism, why do you embrace Ukrainian nationalism? What is your criteria for accepting one nation's nationalism but rejecting another's? I'm especially curious about this in the context of one nation having been around for the better part of 1000 years (a great many generations) in one form or another, and the other only having a history of about 30 years (only one generation). Aside from Russia, are there any other nations' nationalism that you reject?

I have no problem  with  nationalism,  but I have a huge issue  with  nationalism  when it  translates to invading sovereign countries that don't want to align with you or be part  of your  sphere of influence 

And thats the reality of Russian nationalism under Putin. Ukraine had an election in 2019  and Zelensky won overwhelmingly on a pro-West\EU open ticket

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia was  about the decision that the majority of Ukrainians wanted, they didnt want to be part  of the new Russian aligned states  

This should have been respected  and   accepted  by Putin,  if the election results had been a pro-Russia  candidate I can guarantee you there  would have been no invasion 

 

[Mamoulian War]

One of the most prominent Russian war blogger, nationalist Murz, who have been organizing a lot of successful fundraisers for Russian army (especially drones), and probably the only Russian, who did not steel from the donations, has allegedly committed suicide, after reporting on his Telegram, that 16k Russian soldiers has fallen and 300 of their vehicles has been “dismantled” at Avdiivka. According to some Ukrainian sources, this is considered a crucial loss for fighting capabilities of several units on the frontline, especially the FPV operators, due to his well organized fundraising and supply of these units, which is now gone. Meanwhile, Solovyov is doing his best to smear as much dirt on this guy as possible.

[Mamoulian War]

Ukrainian army lost 18 Su bombers since the start of the war. Most of them before receiving StormShadow/SCALP missiles. Which is more, then they had in 2021. Despite that, they still have more of them than in 2021, as they have mastered the survivability of the equipment on ground, during the RU missile/drone barrages. The biggest issue is, slowly depleting pile of long range ammunition usable by them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/22/its-official-despite-losses-ukraines-sole-bomber-brigade-is-bigger-now-than-it-was-before-the-war/

[HoonDing]

Hold on - since when is Ukraine allowed to use NATO equipment to strike targets on Russian soil?

Edited February 23 by HoonDing

[Malcador]

"We are ready to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States in the trenches near Tehran, in North Korea or in Beijing."

Curious marketing from Goncharenko, support us so we'll be grunts for you in future.

[Malcador]

And another Russian AWACS plane downed, near Mariupol. They claim friendly fire, others thinking mythic F-16s at work.

[Zoraptor]

Maybe mythic F-22. The supposed S-400 launches were from Mariupol, the crash site is in Krasnodar oblast of Russia proper (Trudovaya Armenia). That's so far behind the lines it has to be yet another friendly fire incident.

And I'm sure advocating for the invasion of their countries will get the Chinese, Koreans and Iranians to stop supplying Russia. Much like suggesting a joint attack on Warsaw with Russia will get the Polish farmers to reconsider their blockade.

[Mamoulian War]

The UA general staff announcement regarding the downed AWACS.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443425/

and another announcement, in which they claim, that the A-50 was downed by S-200 air defense system.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/

[Zoraptor]

Last time it happened I suggested S-200 as the only plausible option if it was Ukraine. Still a lot of problems with that though- right on the edge of effective range and S-200 launchers are fixed, not mobile. At ~270km from the front line there's a very narrow range of places it could have been launched from, basically a semi circle around Vuhledar (Kurakhove <--> Veliyka Novosilka). While they might be able to jury rig a launcher it would not be trivial since the rocket is 7t and 10m long. Can't just bung it into a S-300 TEL or similar.