Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Lexx]

Happy(?) 1 year anniversary, or.. something?

That chinese plan is kinda reasonable, can't argue against it, however we all know it's pretty much just fantasy. There are also points that you simply can't avoid - for example let's take point 10 "Stopping unilateral sanctions" and 11 "Keeping industrial and supply chains stable".. yeah, I agree, but if Russia attacks and will not back down, and keeps going against points 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 11... then what else are we supposed to do? Bent over, saying, oh well, not much we can do here? Sanctions are probably the best way to force an end, since the alternative would be to send soldiers. Now *that* would be an escalation that really nobody wants.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Happy(?) 1 year anniversary, or.. something?

That chinese plan is kinda reasonable, can't argue against it, however we all know it's pretty much just fantasy. There's also points that you simply can't avoid - for example let's take point 10 "Stopping unilateral sanctions" and 11 "Keeping industrial and supply chains stable".. yeah, I agree, but if Russia attacks and will not back down, and keeps going against points 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 11... then what else are we supposed to do? Bent over, saying, oh well, not much we can do here? Sanctions are probably the best way to force an end, since the alternative would be to send soldiers. Now *that* would be an escalation that really nobody wants.

Yes I agree, its not unreasonable but it requires Russia to first end its invasion and then you can achieve meaningful negotiations and sanction relief

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

Happy(?) 1 year anniversary, or.. something?

That chinese plan is kinda reasonable, can't argue against it, however we all know it's pretty much just fantasy. There are also points that you simply can't avoid - for example let's take point 10 "Stopping unilateral sanctions" and 11 "Keeping industrial and supply chains stable".. yeah, I agree, but if Russia attacks and will not back down, and keeps going against points 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 11... then what else are we supposed to do? Bent over, saying, oh well, not much we can do here? Sanctions are probably the best way to force an end, since the alternative would be to send soldiers. Now *that* would be an escalation that really nobody wants.

Unfortunately, the main goal of this as I see it, is to overshadow the Ukrainian 10 point peace proposal in the eyes of many partially supporting or neutral countries, to start more pressure on UA to negotiate and probably cease some territories.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/28/what-is-zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan

[Mamoulian War]

And first Leopard 2s just arrived in Ukraine, just in time for the 1st “anniversary”.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-delivers-first-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64809432

Edit: and 2 more Billion by USA, mainly focused on UAVs and HIMARS.

 

[Lexx]

21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Unfortunately, the main goal of this as I see it, is to overshadow the Ukrainian 10 point peace proposal in the eyes of many partially supporting or neutral countries, to start more pressure on UA to negotiate and probably cease some territories.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/28/what-is-zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan

Now that plan is way more to my liking.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Unfortunately, the main goal of this as I see it, is to overshadow the Ukrainian 10 point peace proposal in the eyes of many partially supporting or neutral countries, to start more pressure on UA to negotiate and probably cease some territories.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/28/what-is-zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan

Strange to have price controls on Russian oil as a peace condition.  But I guess lots of other non starters there, anyway

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Strange to have price controls on Russian oil as a peace condition.  But I guess lots of other non starters there, anyway

All negotiations starts with few options which goals are “over the top” so they could be “discounted” during the process.

[Mamoulian War]

And more “anniversary” gifts to UA have been announced today.

 

 

[Malcador]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757

Suggest using Reader mode, modern website design is truly terrible, but it was an interesting read, even with a lot of fluff.  Although not sure that moron Truss really was worth talking to.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Malcador

[pmp10]

Seems UK is joining France and Germany in pushing Ukraine into negotiations.

For the future safety of Ukraine they offer armaments and 'guarantees'.

[Lexx]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/protest-berlin-over-arming-ukraine-against-russia-draws-thousands-2023-02-25/

Those people piss me off so hard.

[Zoraptor]

Looks like Bakhmut is pretty much done now. Bunch of small towns to the north confirmed or near confirmed as taken today, and all the high ground there too. They'd need a pretty big counterattack very soon to stabilise things, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen.

The dam there has been blown (specifically by Ukraine, so we don't get any reflexive accusations of war crimes) to flood the city's river, and that only really makes sense as a way to discourage pursuit of an active retreat. May have left it too late though, since even some proUA types have Bohdanivka as contested and that would make the exit route from Bakhmut... uncomfortably narrow (location if anyone is interested) with the last road unusable.

Not a particularly important place in and of itself whatever either side has said at various times, but there certainly were a lot of Ukrainian troops there at one point and it protected some far more important areas (Kramatorsk/ Slaviansk to the northwest, Kostiantinivka to the southwest).

Edited February 26, 2023 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Lexx said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/protest-berlin-over-arming-ukraine-against-russia-draws-thousands-2023-02-25/

Those people piss me off so hard.

Holy smoke, only 10k people attended and they had 1.4k police deployed. No wonder the protest was peaceful 

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Looks like Bakhmut is pretty much done now. Bunch of small towns to the north confirmed or near confirmed as taken today, and all the high ground there too. They'd need a pretty big counterattack very soon to stabilise things, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen.

The dam there has been blown (specifically by Ukraine, so we don't get any reflexive accusations of war crimes) to flood the city's river, and that only really makes sense as a way to discourage pursuit of an active retreat. May have left it too late though, since even some proUA types have Bohdanivka as contested and that would make the exit route from Bakhmut... uncomfortably narrow (location if anyone is interested) with the last road unusable.

Not a particularly important place in and of itself whatever either side has said at various times, but there certainly were a lot of Ukrainian troops there at one point and it protected some far more important areas (Kramatorsk/ Slaviansk to the northwest, Kostiantinivka to the southwest).

Are you seriously comparing the dam in Syria with a pond?

[xzar_monty]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:26 AM, Gorth said:

Edit2: Reading the Pravda article, the logical conclusion is it's Covid's fault (let's all blame China for the war) for completely isolating Putin from the real world

Isolation is pretty bad for just about anyone. Isolation is particularly bad for people with paranoid tendencies. If you're prone to paranoia and you've also got megalomaniacal ideas, isolation is going to, well, maybe make you start a war, if you can.

There are very few things I'd applaud Jordan Peterson for, but he made a good point in criticizing both Freud and Jung for making mental health so much a question of the individual and ignoring the collective. This is a good observation: social ties can keep a lot of people from drowning, because they improve us in so many ways. The manifold ways in which the collective keeps us afloat often become apparent once that collective disappears. Interestingly, this is something that I think almost everyone can anecdotally confirm. There are problematic cases in nearly all high schools and their equivalents, people who only just about manage to hang on. Once high school ends, they are in deep, deep trouble.

[Mamoulian War]

Ukrainian Defense Inteligence, has revealed goals for their counteroffensive. Last time, that they revealed goal of Kherson counteroffensive, they liberated Kharkiv, so this will be interesting, what they manage to pull off. During this weekend, the spring rains started in the south, so there will be no action at least for a month.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/26/7391041/

[xzar_monty]

Extremely interesting stats on equipment losses during the battle for Kiev right at the start of the war.

 

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Are you seriously comparing the dam in Syria with a pond?

Tongue in cheek joke about standards, I guess.

Reading Bakhmut is still contested, Ukrainians counterattacking.  Although the sources are the guys who will say stuff like Democracy gives you special fighting powers, so.

[kanisatha]

19 hours ago, Lexx said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/protest-berlin-over-arming-ukraine-against-russia-draws-thousands-2023-02-25/

Those people piss me off so hard.

10k idiots out of a population of some 85 million? I wouldn't sweat it. You can always count on at least a third of people to be idiots, and especially so in wealthy, advanced democracies.

[Lexx]

They were even less about a year ago. Those movements usually start small and then suddenly there is a problem. Same thing as with the regular right wingers who slow but steadily increase in numbers.

[Mamoulian War]

22 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Seems UK is joining France and Germany in pushing Ukraine into negotiations.

For the future safety of Ukraine they offer armaments and 'guarantees'.

Berlin denied today that such offer was ever offered to Kiyv.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/26/7391092/

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Extremely interesting stats on equipment losses during the battle for Kiev right at the start of the war.

 

These numbers are really staggering and so much in favour for Ukraine, (with the exception of aircrafts). I would love to see similar spreadsheets from Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives as well.

[Zoraptor]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Are you seriously comparing the dam in Syria with a pond?

No, because Syria isn't in Ukraine.

I was comparing the constant kerfuffle about the Nova Kharkovka dam and the imminent/ ongoing war crime that never actually happened there, with a pond. Though calling a body of water (or two, if they blew both up) larger than one km a pond is a bit disingenuous unless you grew up in Kensington Palace or something.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

No, because Syria isn't in Ukraine.

I was comparing the constant kerfuffle about the Nova Kharkovka dam and the imminent/ ongoing war crime that never actually happened there, with a pond. Though calling a body of water (or two, if they blew both up) larger than one km a pond is a bit disingenuous unless you grew up in Kensington Palace or something.

Ehm, it is a recreational pond and has area of 40ha, and it is called Pivnichnyi Pond

https://doinvest.dn.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/11-Bakhmut-Zona-vidpochynku-pivnichnyy-new-ENG.pdf

And when you are comparing it to Kakhovka Dam, you are just undermining all your, sometimes even ratiounal sounding arguments, as the destruction of Kakhovka Dam, would directly endanger dozens of thousands of people on both sides of Dnepr, compared to the Pivnichnyi Pond endangering dozens of hundred of fishes and in total 5 buildings near Trudova Street. All you need to do is to check the topography in that area, and you could see that the creek flowing out of the pond has pretty wide inindation zone to endanger anyone foolish enough to still live there.

here is the depiction of flooded area (the 5 building affected by water, are at the easternmost dark blue point )

 

[Mamoulian War]

Russia is little bit revamping their army, based on Wagner tactics performed around Bakhmut.