Ukraine Conflict - Beware lest in your anxiety to avoid war you obtain a master

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well, the difference is, that the people falling asleep at the Biden’s speech, can still accept the invite to a tea party without commiting “self-defenestration” afterwards  

Well, seems to be standing room only, so they may get a bang on the head.  Just is surprising people make a big deal out of them - local media covering it live here for some reason.  I guess it does allow the staff to take a break

[Mamoulian War]

If you have 1 hour and 10 minutes of time, this is an excellent presentation, which talks about the situation, in which Putin forced Russia, and how it is affecting it now and in the future, even if they would win tomorrow. By Perun.

 

 

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

Russia no longer being part of New START is interesting to note.

 

Ah, not participating, not withdrawing - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-suspends-participation-last-remaining-nuclear-treaty-with-us-2023-02-21/

Interesting that Reuters doesn't mention the persistent Russian complaint about their inspectors being effectively banned from the US and thus having been unable to carry out inspections for the past year. Guess after ABM, INF, Open Skies, JCPOA etc the US really didn't want to leave another treaty first.

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

It didn’t take to long, and head of the FSB already denied this claim

It's not a claim, it comes direct from the White House, was repeated by the WH press secretary at a press briefing and was reported on by dozens if not hundreds of outlets. Apart from that, the FSB is not who the deconfliction line goes to same as if the Russians call it doesn't go to the FBI, and as Malc pointed out the only thing the FSB guy said was that they didn't give security guarantees.  But then they also don't give security guarantees for, say, a visit to and speech in Poland either and they could most definitely hit Biden there as well, if they wanted to start WW3.

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-will-defend-bakhmut-within-reason-russia-2023-02-20/

I guess this means the withdrawal's nearly done.

[pmp10]

XI is supposedly getting ready to visit Moscow.
Chances are a deal to support Russia is about to be made.
I'm sure it will come at a reasonable cost to Russia. 

Lines are slowly being drawn, I wonder where wester Europe will stand.

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

All these speeches are nothing burgers, so to speak. Biden's current one in Poland seems to be same.

They are important symbols but that noting concrete was announced is telling.
There are no more political plans for this war except to tough it out and hope you lose less than the other side.

Edited February 21, 2023 by pmp10

[Mamoulian War]

16 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-will-defend-bakhmut-within-reason-russia-2023-02-20/

I guess this means the withdrawal's nearly done.

We'll see, Ukrainian sources are speaking at least about retreat from eastern side of Bakhmutka river since autumn. And the soldier still hold. But I do not believe it is holdable for few more months... Although the spring Rasputica will help more the defenders than attackers...

[Zoraptor]

Rasputitsa is unlikely to help much in Bakhmut.

Indeed, with the current situation an early melt/ rains would probably help the Russians there (though it would be the reverse in an active pursuit, so it might be militarily worthwhile to hold on as a delaying tactic), since any Ukrainian retreat would have to be largely cross country. If the Russians are in Yahidne and can't be dislodged quickly... that's it really, elevated position over Bakhmut proper with straight line of sight to the last road in and out, and well within mortar and atgm range. And even some pro UA maps have them there, now, indeed pro Russian mappers like Rybar seem to be if anything more conservative on the gains.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

I guess this means the withdrawal's nearly done.

As above, you'd hope so. I do rather like the idea that Biden came to Kiev partly to tell Zelensky to withdraw since dropping hints wasn't working, and the timing seems to line up with a meeting prior to the publicised speeches/ walks etc.

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Chances are a deal to support Russia is about to be made.

Meh, believe it when it happens. Buying up even more Russian gas/ oil and financing infrastructure for it, yes. Having said that though:

Whatever happens, antagonising both your strategic enemies at the same time is moronic and yet that's what has happened. If you wanted to deal with China as a priority- sensible, they're a far larger long term threat than Russia- you should have parked the conflict with Russia 18 months ago when it could be.

[Malcador]

17 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

We'll see, Ukrainian sources are speaking at least about retreat from eastern side of Bakhmutka river since autumn. And the soldier still hold. But I do not believe it is holdable for few more months... Although the spring Rasputica will help more the defenders than attackers...

Just a guess based off the change in tone - Zelensky was fairly bombastic about it a couple weeks ago, and if you're going to start soft selling a withdrawal you should be halfway done it. 

And something to have a little snicker about to start the day

This Twitter user is about as useless as Warmonitor3 but the clip is genuine

[xzar_monty]

19 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Interesting that Reuters doesn't mention the persistent Russian complaint about their inspectors being effectively banned from the US and thus having been unable to carry out inspections for the past year. Guess after ABM, INF, Open Skies, JCPOA etc the US really didn't want to leave another treaty first.

When it comes to treaties and such and the US, the situation is indeed complex and less than flattering. We have, for instance, things like the ICC in place -- but the US does not recognize them.

Another less than flattering thing about the US is that while conspiracy theorists tend to be, shall we say, less than stable as people, the US government does have an awful record when it comes to lying to its citizens. When Thomas Pynchon started to describe a certain kind of paranoia as an important theme in American life, he was really onto something, as unpleasant as that is.

Edited February 22, 2023 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

When it comes to treaties and such and the US, the situation is indeed complex and less than flattering. We have, for instance, things like the ICC in place -- but the US does not recognize them.

Another less than flattering thing about the US is that while conspiracy theorists tend to be, shall we say, less than stable as people, the US government does have an awful record when it comes to lying to its citizens. When Thomas Pynchon started to describe a certain kind of paranoia as an important theme in American life, he was really onto something, as unpleasant as that is.

But Monty I hope you realize that no government in the world can be completely honest with its citizens all the time, especially when it comes to security of the country. Thats why you  have confidential and secretive labelling of documents and why Diplomatic cables are confidential 

This sometimes creates unnecessary levels of concern and activism  from citizens because they have an unreasonable expectation that they have a right to know everything but we dont. And this is more prevalent in times of war 

 

[xzar_monty]

34 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But Monty I hope you realize that no government in the world can be completely honest with its citizens all the time, especially when it comes to security of the country. Thats why you  have confidential and secretive labelling of documents and why Diplomatic cables are confidential 

This sometimes creates unnecessary levels of concern and activism  from citizens because they have an unreasonable expectation that they have a right to know everything but we dont. And this is more prevalent in times of war 

 

I wonder if you realize that this has almost nothing to do with what I wrote. I was, for instance, not talking about confidentiality, which is an essential and completely different from outright lying.

Edited February 23, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

You just have to take a peek at the wiki article to know that sometimes it can be good not to trust your government.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

38 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I wonder if you realize that this has almost nothing to do with what I wrote. I was, for instance, not talking about confidentiality, which is an essential and completely different from outright lying.

Fair enough, its the innuendo that concerns me because sometimes governments get accused of lying but its not lying they doing. They not sharing everything which is not the same as lying 

[xzar_monty]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Fair enough, its the innuendo that concerns me because sometimes governments get accused of lying but its not lying they doing. They not sharing everything which is not the same as lying 

There was no innuendo. The US government really does have a terrible track record when it comes to lying to its citizens. It also has a terrible track record when it comes to horrendous illegal practices involving its citizens. I'm sure you know MK-Ultra, for example.

[Malcador]

And I thought the crappy metal/techno soundtrack to the propaganda was bad

[Mamoulian War]

Financial Times has published a new article about the beginning of war. And how big blunder it was for Putin. Unfortunately it is behind a paywall, but I have found up some shortened version of the article on Ukrainskaya Pravda. But I do not know, if there is sum of everything, or something is missing.

FT link: https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-33e8-48fb-b734-44810afb7a49

UP link: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/23/7390670/

"Stalin was a villain, but a good manager, because he couldn’t be lied to. But nobody can tell Putin the truth," says one. "People who don't trust anyone start trusting a very small number of people who lie to them."

[Zoraptor]

lolwut.

First time I've ever seen Stalin described as a good manager. And he got lied to all the time. Best you can say is that unlike Hitler he got out of the way of actually competent people when he really had to and had fewer pet project failures in WW2 (so not even counting Gallipoli/ Dardenelles) than Churchill did.

[Gorth]

32 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

lolwut.

First time I've ever seen Stalin described as a good manager. And he got lied to all the time. Best you can say is that unlike Hitler he got out of the way of actually competent people when he really had to and had fewer pet project failures in WW2 (so not even counting Gallipoli/ Dardenelles) than Churchill did.

Did he ever get out of the way of anyone besides Zhukov? Mostly because the latter was so popular, no amount of secret police would be able to handle the repercussions of Zhukov falling out of a window.

@Mamoulian War As for the speaking the truth to Stalin... you know you can't really trust truth extracted through torture

Edit: Just to clarify, that made it look like it was your statement, it isn't, the quoted bit from FT/Pravda made the statement!

Edit2: Reading the Pravda article, the logical conclusion is it's Covid's fault (let's all blame China for the war) for completely isolating Putin from the real world

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

 

Edit: Just to clarify, that made it look like it was your statement, it isn't, the quoted bit from FT/Pravda made the statement!

Edit2: Reading the Pravda article, the logical conclusion is it's Covid's fault (let's all blame China for the war) for completely isolating Putin from the real world

That wasnt my logical conclusion from the article? Covid created a period of isolation for Putin but  he received terrible advice around how the invasion would be received and he overestimated the efficiency of the Russian military . And thats been more or less confirmed by numerous sources, dont you remember the infamous and cringe " Kiev will fall in 3 weeks " and " Most  Ukrainians will welcome the Russian invasion "

For me the article just confirms what we have already seen and know. It didnt even mention the word China?

 

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Did he ever get out of the way of anyone besides Zhukov? Mostly because the latter was so popular, no amount of secret police would be able to handle the repercussions of Zhukov falling out of a window.

Zhukov wasn't popular in 1941 though, he got picked because unlike pretty much everyone else he, at least, had one actual factual win. And maybe because Stalin post his breakdown recognised that if he'd listened to and followed Zhukov's advice earlier the situation would have been a lot better*. Zhokov is also kind of... embiggened, reputationally. People love having 'supercommanders' in their histories because that makes a good story- see the adulation for the decidedly average (but far better than most at the time) Timoshenko in the west during 1941. Stalin got out of the way of a bunch of other generals too.

The crucial thing was that post 1941 breakdown Stalin didn't really interfere much with Stavka in general, unlike Churchill and Hitler with their equivalents, or logistics or design as Hitler did. When he did it tended to be a problem, it was just that, well for example, wasting thousands of lives in 1945 in the lead up to Berlin plain couldn't make a difference to the ultimate result of the war, by that time.

In any case, I'd struggle to call anyone who regularly liquidated their management team 'a good manager'. Can't really learn and improve if your brain is decorating the Lubyanka wall instead of thinking.

*though, of course, most of that does come from Zhukov himself so grain of salt needed.

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

For me the article just confirms what we have already seen and know. It didnt even mention the word China?

That was me inferring China being the source of Covid (not necessarily intentionally so)

[BruceVC]

Latest UN resolution on Russia's invasion, in a year not much has changed. 80% of the countries who voted support Ukraine with 7 countries supporting Russia

SA again disappoints with abstaining but good to see most African countries supporting the resolution 

[BruceVC]

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/zyxw/202302/t20230224_11030707.shtml

Here is the Chinese peace plan, somethings make sense and somethings are not going to happen until Russia ends the invasion. I like the first part and how they recognize the UN and the importance  of sovereignty 

But I wonder how that applies to them and there geopolitical ambitions?

 

[pmp10]

Chine calls for peace talks.
They even offered a 12 point peace plan that reads more like 'just get along' wish-list.

So far no one seems to be biting. 

[Mamoulian War]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

lolwut.

First time I've ever seen Stalin described as a good manager. And he got lied to all the time. Best you can say is that unlike Hitler he got out of the way of actually competent people when he really had to and had fewer pet project failures in WW2 (so not even counting Gallipoli/ Dardenelles) than Churchill did.

 

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

 

Edit: Just to clarify, that made it look like it was your statement, it isn't, the quoted bit from FT/Pravda made the statement!

 

It was statement of a Russian official giving interview to FT. It picked this statement, because it sound ridiculous, but this just shows how some people around Pootin see the difference between the two, and even if they oppose the war, they are still out of touch with reality