Ukraine Conflict - "An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war"

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Just read an interview with Christo Grozev, Bellingcat's main researcher on Russia. The most significant takeaway for me was that everyone near Putin knew well before the war that the Russian army was in a terrible state. But Putin was completely unaware.

Can you post the link, you keep forgetting 

[xzar_monty]

No I don't. When it's a language people here don't speak and Google translate doesn't do well with, I often don't post the link. But there you go: https://tinyurl.com/a3zdabk6

[BruceVC]

55 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

No I don't. When it's a language people here don't speak and Google translate doesn't do well with, I often don't post the link. But there you go: https://tinyurl.com/a3zdabk6

Its fine thanks, my translator worked

So you Finnish, I asked you several times what Scandinavian country  you from and you never responded, I assumed you were from Sweden and you were embarrassed  But Finland is a  great country, @Elerond has shared some of your successful social programs like how your education system works and its admirable and clearly successful 

[kanisatha]

I'd much rather my country (USA) fight to defend Taiwan than quite a few of our so-called (Western) allies. Taiwan is one of the very few places outside the West where meaningful democracy and individual liberty exists, and for me that is worth defending, especially against a tyranny like the PRC.

[Mamoulian War]

Looks like India made very strong statement today and shown their neutrality is not unlimited.
 

India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh warned his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoygu against the use of nuclear or radiological weapons during the war in Ukraine

 

 

[Malcador]

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base

Total aside, Cyrillic cursive is gorgeous.

[pmp10]

The plan to cap Russian oil price is being 'reworked'.

The last form of economic leverage that west has over Russia is not looking so hot anymore.

[BruceVC]

54 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

The plan to cap Russian oil price is being 'reworked'.

The last form of economic leverage that west has over Russia is not looking so hot anymore.

The good news is we dont need oil price caps  anymore because the oil price has dropped and so has the gas price. Gas price is down to pre-war levels

Ironically its the other way around, Putin was trying to use the economic leverage of throttling gas and hoping the oil price would rise exponentially. So we  can happy that this energy blackmail is unlikely to work  

The only potential concern is OPEC+  reducing oil production in November but we dont know the impact of this because supply and demand realities will influence this 

[BruceVC]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/europe-natural-gas-prices-plunge/index.html 

Putins attempt to use energy blackmail really has become an epic failure, our EU friends wont be freezing to death because of gas prices 

[Lexx]

I've heard the gas ships are idling in front of the terminals now, because there is not enough capacity to unload them.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I've heard the gas ships are idling in front of the terminals now, because there is not enough capacity to unload them.

Yes the article mentions that. What I have found interesting about the whole gas potential crisis in the EU is how relatively quickly the EU was able to mitigate the Russian blackmail and obvious deliberate attempt to throttle gas to the likes of Germany and other countries using Russian gas

On Codex you had these Vatniks celebrating how " EU citizens were going to freeze to death " due to lack of gas and high prices but the response from the EU has been effective and it should be recognized

Its a good thing to be part of the EU, despite its problems it offers more advantages than disadvantages 

 

[Elerond]

57 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I've heard the gas ships are idling in front of the terminals now, because there is not enough capacity to unload them.

And prices on future markets are higher than current prices, meaning that it is in some cases more profitable to sell gas for January and let ship idle near harbor 

[BruceVC]

20 minutes ago, Elerond said:

And prices on future markets are higher than current prices, meaning that it is in some cases more profitable to sell gas for January and let ship idle near harbor 

Yes but if there is no  storage capacity then ships also have to sit idle. So lets not promote  " evil, greedy, Capitalist companies " conspiracy theories 

Thats the reason ships are sitting idle

[Mamoulian War]

Poland after the Baltics, is the fourth country, who recognised Russia as a terrorist state by law.

[Mamoulian War]

Goddaughter of Putin shown more courage than half of Russian men… Exposing modern day Russian gulags. Her report inside the twitter thread. Lot of people are still pointing out, how she was/is a part of Russian propaganda machine. And in Russia, she is currently a suspect in an ongoing blackmail case. She fled Russia.

 

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes but if there is no  storage capacity then ships also have to sit idle. So lets not promote  " evil, greedy, Capitalist companies " conspiracy theories 

Thats the reason ships are sitting idle

Stored gas is constantly used so there are constantly room for that amount gas that was used. But LNG ports have limited capacity to serve ships which has lead to situation where there are ships which contents are sold to be used in January and February next year because price was higher on future market than it is currently in exchange. So companies decided that their ships will act as storage and idle in ports until is is time to unload their tanks instead of competing of limited LNG port capacity

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Stored gas is constantly used so there are constantly room for that amount gas that was used. But LNG ports have limited capacity to serve ships which has lead to situation where there are ships which contents are sold to be used in January and February next year because price was higher on future market than it is currently in exchange. So companies decided that their ships will act as storage and idle in ports until is is time to unload their tanks instead of competing of limited LNG port capacity

Yes I agree but the point is the ships are idle because  of logistics problems like limited capacity to serve ships or storage capacity

But your post suggested the ships are idle because they can make more money waiting to sell on future market. But they not idle because they holding back on purpose to make more money. They idle because of capacity to serve ships?

[Elerond]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I agree but the point is the ships are idle because  of logistics problems like limited capacity to serve ships or storage capacity

But your post suggested the ships are idle because they can make more money waiting to sell on future market. But they not idle because they holding back on purpose to make more money. They idle because of capacity to serve ships?

They are idle because they get more money in future, because there are limited capacity to serve them, which is why gas buyers are able to pick sellers who sell gas in lower price just to get their ship free to other deliveries. But some sellers sell their gas to future markets even though it is already in ship close to LNG terminal where they will deliver it, because they have calculated that they will make more profit that way.

So limited LNG terminal capacity has caused situation on gas market where there are more supply than demand and sellers are looking ways to ensure that they don't need to dumb (as spot prices went below zero¹ ) their gas just to free their ships for more profitable shipments by making their ships as floating storages waiting months where there are much more demand because energy companies are willing to pay more (126% more than last October, so about 240€/MWh) for guarantee that they will not run out of gas during winter months.

 

1.

 

[Mamoulian War]

 

[Mamoulian War]

Belarusian addition to joint military forces, to make Russian army more high tech

 

[Mamoulian War]

An insight, how it goes for Russian soldiers and conscripts at the Luhansk front

 

[Malcador]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63437212

Wonder what drones were used.  Russia's response is to leave the grain deal, for now.

[Lexx]

There's videos of those drone boats from which we saw a photo a couple months ago.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63437212

Wonder what drones were used.  Russia's response is to leave the grain deal, for now.

These are the suspects.

And Turkyie is atm denying, that they have been officially notified about cancellation of the grain deal.

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

These are the suspects.

And Turkyie is atm denying, that they have been officially notified about cancellation of the grain deal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-suspends-participation-deal-ukraine-grain-exports-tass-2022-10-29/#:~:text=Oct 29 (Reuters) - Russia on Saturday suspended,"purely outrageous" and said it would increase starvation

 

Yes the Ruskies are weaponizing famine again and like before the most impoverished  countries in Africa and the ME will suffer