Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[xzar_monty]

36 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I watched parts of it that were highlighted on BBC, it was the  normal rhetoric, lies and grandstanding that has become normal for Putin and his dysfunctional view of the world 

No, it wasn't. Many of the claims were much more extreme and far more out of touch with reality than the stuff he has previously said during this war.

There was an interesting rhetorical point in the speech, by the way: Putin said that Russia are at war against the collective West. But remember, Russia is not at war with Ukraine. In fact, Russia is so much not at war against Ukraine that talking about any war may lead to a prison sentence.

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

By the way, have you good folks read the entirety of the speech that Putin gave on Friday? It's a remarkable document, because it is insane. And I do mean in the psychiatric sense, even though I am not qualified to do so. Putin's claims are so out of touch with any discernible reality that it is quite difficult to believe that he actually said all those things. Anyone interested in the matter should probably try to get a hold of either the Russian original (which I, for one, cannot read) or a good translation.

The speech is replete with stuff like "To them [i.e. the West] our way of thinking and our philosophy is an immediate threat, which is why they attempt to assassinate our philosophers".

I have read an excerpt by an Belarussian independent journalist, and she said, that because of things, you’ve said, she decided to not cover his speech. Just made a statement how delusional the whole thing felt.

[Mamoulian War]

Kadyrov and Prigozhin (Wagner owner) are criticizing General Lapin and Russian MoD. Girkin blames Shoygu. Kadyrov even published the localization of General Lapin’s HQ in Starobilsk on social media. LOL. Putin is starting to lose control over some individuals. And these uncontrolled officers are now in lead of tens of thousands of mobiks

Edited October 2, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

@xzar_monty I have found the BLR journalist statement.

 

[xzar_monty]

24 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I have read an excerpt by an Belarussian independent journalist, and she said, that because of things, you’ve said, she decided to not cover his speech. Just made a statement how delusional the whole thing felt.

I understand where she's coming from, although I'd tend to disagree: I think it's better if people know how delusional Putin now is.

Some of Putin's claims:

The West is ruled by despotism and totalitarianism; Western schoolchildren are fed perversions leading to infertility and unnatural developments; the most central of these perversions is the idea that there is no mother or father, there are only "genders"; the US is currently occupying Germany, Japan and Korea (presumably South); all grain exported from Ukraine has gone to Europe; Russia is a free country, the West wants to enslave everyone; the gas pipes were destroyed by Anglo-Saxons (a peculiar term, this one, in this context); most countries are currently co-operating with Russia.

[pmp10]

34 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Many of the claims were much more extreme and far more out of touch with reality than the stuff he has previously said during this war.

Maybe so, but in a way they are a logical escalation of his views.
He already claimed to be fighting the 'unipolar world order' made by the US.

Blaming 'Anglo-Saxons' for imperialism of past centuries was just an appeal for support to any like-minded countries and peoples worldwide. 

[xzar_monty]

5 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Maybe so, but in a way they are a logical escalation of his views.

That's true. However, even a logical escalation can lead to an utterly mad result, which in my view is the case.

He most certainly did claim to be fighting the unipolar world order, and he has also made some other outrageous claims before, but the speech on Friday went further -- into what I would basically call madness. Going through the entire speech is not pleasant at all.

[Darkpriest]

Some pro-Russian propaganda piece... 

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

 

[xzar_monty]

32 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

Some excellent writing there, under the heading "The Winter War". The writer points out that "Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow." Indeed, in the Winter War against Finland, Russia's losses in manpower were only about five times greater than Finland's losses -- with Russia also entering the war with well over 2 000 tanks against Finland's 32, for example. (Russia ended up losing at least 1 200 of its tanks.)

There is no question that Finland ended up losing the war, simply because it was against impossible odds, given the relative strengths of the two armies. But realistically speaking, Russia's operation really could not have been less effective.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

By the way, have you good folks read the entirety of the speech that Putin gave on Friday? It's a remarkable document, because it is insane. And I do mean in the psychiatric sense, even though I am not qualified to do so. Putin's claims are so out of touch with any discernible reality that it is quite difficult to believe that he actually said all those things. Anyone interested in the matter should probably try to get a hold of either the Russian original (which I, for one, cannot read) or a good translation.

The speech is replete with stuff like "To them [i.e. the West] our way of thinking and our philosophy is an immediate threat, which is why they attempt to assassinate our philosophers".

Indeed. High-ranking US officials have been saying off the record after Putin's speech that they now believe Putin is deranged in the clinical sense. I personally couldn't help drawing comparisons to how Hitler looked and sounded in his late-1944 speeches. And this guy has his finger on thousands of nukes. Let's hope there is a Brutus somewhere within that regime.

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Some excellent writing there, under the heading "The Winter War". The writer points out that "Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow." Indeed, in the Winter War against Finland, Russia's losses in manpower were only about five times greater than Finland's losses -- with Russia also entering the war with well over 2 000 tanks against Finland's 32, for example. (Russia ended up losing at least 1 200 of its tanks.)

There is no question that Finland ended up losing the war, simply because it was against impossible odds, given the relative strengths of the two armies. But realistically speaking, Russia's operation really could not have been less effective.

Hehe. Yeah. If anything it's the Ukrainians who're going to benefit from the onset of winter and the Russians who are going to face even more battlefield hardship.

[Elerond]

31 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Some excellent writing there, under the heading "The Winter War". The writer points out that "Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow." Indeed, in the Winter War against Finland, Russia's losses in manpower were only about five times greater than Finland's losses -- with Russia also entering the war with well over 2 000 tanks against Finland's 32, for example. (Russia ended up losing at least 1 200 of its tanks.)

There is no question that Finland ended up losing the war, simply because it was against impossible odds, given the relative strengths of the two armies. But realistically speaking, Russia's operation really could not have been less effective.

In the Winter War political merit was more important than knowledge about warfare for soviets, which lead soviets to use bad strategies (for example mass assault to strongest Finnish positions over frozen lake, leading thousands men to drown after soviet forces were hit by Finnish artillery that broke the ice), and they didn't use combined arms until end of the war when they changed leadership to people who actually had know how about wars and how different forces should be used.

And Soviets weren't prepared to long campaign in record cold winter. As soviets send their divisions from Black Sea area that had fought victoriously in Romania. Those divisions didn't have any experience of fighting in winter and they didn't even have winter clothing. And someone in soviet army had brilliant idea that soldiers can warm themselves by drinking vodka. 

Finland ended up to lose after winter ended and soviets started to combine their arms in their attacks (meaning that air planes, artillery, tanks and infantry attacked in same time instead of taking turns) and Finnish forces run out of ammunition and other supplies as promised help from France and UK never arrived.

But to the point Russia has forces that are more than capable to fight in winter and snow, most of those forces are from divisions that have been situated to garrisons close to Finland's border. Like arctic brigade in Alakurtti (as name gives away the area was part of Finland before WWII) and northern fleet in Severomorsk (close to Murmansk). 

In Ukraine war, winter probably will not play big role as Ukraine fights in its own territory and is familiar with weather there. Russians forces have lots of people who are familiar with weather of territories they are currently fighting in. Most significant thing that winter may bring is frozen swamps and fields maneuvers they make possible, which can give new advantages for both sides.

[xzar_monty]

47 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Indeed. High-ranking US officials have been saying off the record after Putin's speech that they now believe Putin is deranged in the clinical sense.

Ok, good to know, thanks for that. This was precisely my impression, too: a person who makes a speech like that is likely to be clinically mad. It is not just fanaticism or propaganda anymore, it's something altogether more sinister and deranged.

As for your Hitler comparison, Putin has "gone the Hitler way" in another sense, too, by taking command of at least some of the military decisions. That is almost certainly not a good idea, in the strategic sense. He is exceedingly unlikely to make good choices.

[Malcador]

Sort of strange to refer to one conflict in winter as indicative, but then ignore the later conflict as well.  Is sort of weird how everyone can't seem to go back to referencing WW2.

So given Putin is nuts, how many nukes is Kiev going to get, you think?

[xzar_monty]

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Sort of strange to refer to one conflict in winter as indicative, but then ignore the later conflict as well.  Is sort of weird how everyone can't seem to go back to referencing WW2.

So given Putin is nuts, how many nukes is Kiev going to get, you think?

Fair point. The poster I was referring to did the same in the other direction, i.e. ignoring a truly remarkable failure. So we can probably conclude that Russia is capable of both efficiency and an almighty cóck-up.

As for nukes and Kiev, whatever I think is meaningless, so I'll refrain from speculating on this, too.

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Some excellent writing there, under the heading "The Winter War". The writer points out that "Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow." Indeed, in the Winter War against Finland, Russia's losses in manpower were only about five times greater than Finland's losses -- with Russia also entering the war with well over 2 000 tanks against Finland's 32, for example. (Russia ended up losing at least 1 200 of its tanks.)

There is no question that Finland ended up losing the war, simply because it was against impossible odds, given the relative strengths of the two armies. But realistically speaking, Russia's operation really could not have been less effective.

A humble reminder, that this war started in the winter as well, and in this period, the Russians had the biggest casualties in this war so far. No wonder, than most of the Russian PoWs captured in this period were wearing stolen UA army underwear. Also, Because of their tactics of scorched earth, they pretty much made a lot of cities in their possesion undefendable during the winter due to completely destroyed infrastructure…

A little prediction

 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Ok, good to know, thanks for that. This was precisely my impression, too: a person who makes a speech like that is likely to be clinically mad. It is not just fanaticism or propaganda anymore, it's something altogether more sinister and deranged.

As for your Hitler comparison, Putin has "gone the Hitler way" in another sense, too, by taking command of at least some of the military decisions. That is almost certainly not a good idea, in the strategic sense. He is exceedingly unlikely to make good choices.

More and more people, including Russian sources are hinting, that defense of Lyman was actually commanded by Putin himself.

[Mamoulian War]

Some Russian sources are in panic mode over Kherson front as well. Some of them claim, that Russian defense line has been moved to the town of Dudchany which is 25-30kms away from the closest liberated cities in northern Kherson Oblast, even on the most optimistic front maps… AFU still maintain operational silence in the area…

[Malcador]

Still reading WarMonitor, I see.

[Mamoulian War]

31 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Still reading WarMonitor, I see.

You would be surprised, but these are from Wartranslated  direct translations of Russian social media But yes, Dudchany has been mentioned in the WarMonitor tweets. Russians are speaking only about Beryslav direction, which is approximately 75km away from frontline. In the light of these information, deepstate map UA and the official AFU media from Zolota Balka and Shevchenkivka, which are away 15-20km away form Dudchany, it seems pretty much plausible. I am tripple checking what I am writing with at least three to five different sources, sometimes even including Girkin nowadays  and yes, there are still a lot of rumours running around. But I believe you and other people on this board, can see from what I post, what is considered as rumour and what is stated as a fact easily

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

@Malcador

Defmon also spoken about these rumours, which I got from few different sources including WarMonitor. Approximately  hour ago  

And here is the initial source of the rumours, The infamous Igor Girkin, who mentioned Dudchany on his Vkontakte account:

https://m.vk.com/wall347260249_665113

bellow the take of Defmon on these rumours.

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

Was more a comment on the heavy use of "some".  Will be interesting to see what the RuAF does now.

[Mamoulian War]

2 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Was more a comment on the heavy use of "some".  Will be interesting to see what the RuAF does now.

Well as English is not my primary language, I am pretty sure, that some of my post on this forum might be a direct violation of some English language conventions

My curiosity is off the charts now, as there are even more crazy rumours flying around, especially about Kreminna, but these are according to my short research into it, most likely in the false/psyops area atm.

[xzar_monty]

Russian losses apparently escalating, perhaps even significantly:

https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1576501025728364545/photo/1

[pmp10]

Two interesting US developments likely in response to mobilization and annexations:

New US Army command to coordinate Ukraine assistance will be build in Germany.
US is planning to move to constant financial aid and pushes EU to do the same.

They are clearly willing to take this long term, but placing command structures in Germany is a little surprising if they can see that EU is stalling on assistance.