Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Lexx said:

So they apparently found more torture chambers in Izyum. Also found more dead soldiers with cut-off balls. Guess there is a reason why surrendering russian soldiers asked if their balls will be cut off.

 

You would think the constant appalling Russian military  atrocities and war crimes would not surprise us anymore 

But they still do shock me 

 

[Lexx]

I think it's because we tend to forget about it. At least I did for a while, then you see those reports again and everything comes back. It's like with those Kadyrovs ... you forget they are even a thing, then you see in the news that they send civilians into a minefield and laughed about the explosions.

We want to be the better people and don't behave like that, but man, after hearing what they constantly do to others, I'm not sure if I could be strong enough to not just shoot them on the spot if I were in that situation. Really have to keep reminding yourself that the war will end sooner if you don't butcher the enemy and thus make them surrender more easily.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Lexx

[xzar_monty]

One particular difficulty with all of this was recently well put by a British military expert: Russia will stop the war when it consider that its losses are getting bigger than its potential gains -- and Russia doesn't regard its own dead as losses. This has historically been the way Russia treats people, even its own people. From this, you can pretty much deduce how it treats its enemy. Well, cutting off balls is one way. (And yes, I am fully aware of what the Brits and the Germans, for example, have done in the very recent past. I wouldn't want Ilse Koch, for instance, to stand for Germany.)

This is Russians themselves speaking (with a headline I certainly wouldn't have used yet). It is not pretty:

 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

I think it's because we tend to forget about it. At least I did for a while, then you see those reports again and everything comes back. It's like with those Kadyrovs ... you forget they are even a thing, then you see in the news that they send civilians into a minefield and laughed about the explosions.

We want to be the better people and don't behave like that, but man, after hearing what they constantly do to others, I'm not sure if I could be strong enough to not just shoot them on the spot if I were in that situation. Really have to keep reminding yourself that the war will end sooner if you don't butcher the enemy and thus make them surrender more easily.

Well, Russian Duma passed a law today, that for refusing participation in the combat, desertion and surrendering as POW! you can be charged up to 10 years in prison  

[majestic]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/turkey-president-erdogan-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-and-the-future-of-nato
 

Quote

Judy Woodruff:

Should Russia be permitted to keep some of the territory it's taken from Ukraine since it invaded in February? Should that be part of a solution to this — to this conflict?

 

Quote

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (through translator):

No, and undoubtedly no.

When we talk about reciprocal agreement, this is what we mean. If a peace is going to be established in Ukraine, of course, the returning of the land that was invaded will become really important. This is what is expected. This is what is wanted. Mr. Putin has taken certain steps. We have taken certain steps.

The lands which were invaded will be returned to Ukraine.

Not sure about the quality of the translation ("will" seems to be rather, ahm, optimistic, I suppose), but regardless, it looks like Putin's 'friends' are unhappy with the way his little conflict is interfering with their economic interests. Guess that was really supposed to be over long before winter.

Of course, the good old Bosporussian (although in light of these comments, I probably should start looking for a new nickname) also drops this fun hypocrisy bomb:

Quote

 

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (through translator):

Well, no invasion can be justified. An invasion cannot be justified.

 

He kind of missed the footnote "unless it's against Kurds" I suppose.

[xzar_monty]

6 minutes ago, majestic said:

He kind of missed the footnote "unless it's against Kurds" I suppose.

It wouldn't be an invasion, in that case (in his opinion).

Anyway, that was an extremely interesting comment, thanks a lot! Seems to offer more and more plausibility to the idea that Putin's circle of supporters is dwindling.

Edited September 20, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

I'm actually surprised that he says it like that. Wouldn't have expected that. Maybe they make good money with selling drones now?

[majestic]

Cynic in me says it's probably because two Turkish banks just suspended Mir payments after being threatened with sanctions and he needs some brownie points in light of the stock crash of said banks. On the other hand, he would never have made these comments if Russia wasn't really in a bad place right now, so it's not entirely worthless.

[pmp10]

LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia.
If TASS is to be believed the voting starts in 3 days and will take 5 to complete...

They also called on other regions to do the same. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by pmp10

[xzar_monty]

Yes. Major escalation in Russia may be on its way.

 

[BruceVC]

58 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

It wouldn't be an invasion, in that case (in his opinion).

Anyway, that was an extremely interesting comment, thanks a lot! Seems to offer more and more plausibility to the idea that Putin's circle of supporters is dwindling.

But Monty the Kurds dont have a country so how can they be invaded?

[BruceVC]

26 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia.
If TASS is to be believed the voting starts in 3 days and will take 5 to complete...

They also called on other regions to do the same. 

Another " legitimate Russian referendum " ....let me guess, these will be options

1. Do you want to join Russia 
2. Do you want  full independence from Ukraine 

Edited September 20, 2022 by BruceVC

[Lexx]

Maybe someone will smoke in a no-smoking area and the offices burn down in the next few days, thus delaying the referendum.

[Mamoulian War]

Few of these smoking incidents already happened all around occupied regions in last few weeks. And there's no indication, that the occupiers will stop smoking anytime soon...

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

Yes. Major escalation in Russia may be on its way.

 

We'll see what happens. Crimea is "part of Russia" according to Kremlin, and their whole navy, including submarines was kicked out of Sevastopol by systematic attack on Crimea, and all the Kremlin did as an answer to this, was losing 90% of Kharkiv Oblast

General mobilization will not end well for Russia, if it would, Putin would already done that...

And USA has already threatened few days ago, that using nuclear or chemical weapons in UA will lead to direct NATO involvement.

[xzar_monty]

6 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

We'll see what happens. Crimea is "part of Russia" according to Kremlin, and their whole navy, including submarines was kicked out of Sevastopol by systematic attack on Crimea, and all the Kremlin did as an answer to this, was losing 90% of Kharkiv Oblast

The Kremlin was also very, very strong about Sweden and Finland joining Nato, but once the countries decided to join, nothing happened. (Yes, I know, they're not in Nato yet.) Any attacks in Crimea were also said to lead to "Armageddon" type stuff, when in fact nothing happened. And so on. So yes, there's been plenty of talk that has turned out to be without substance.

One the delightful things about the video I posted above is the immediate turn that happens once someone's said "We must defeat Ukraine" and then gets asked "So do you want to go to war yourself?". That question finally starts a thinking process -- so I agree that general mobilization might not go well.

But you're right: We'll see what happens.

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, majestic said:

He kind of missed the footnote "unless it's against Kurds" I suppose.

Luckily no one cares that much.

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

One particular difficulty with all of this was recently well put by a British military expert: Russia will stop the war when it consider that its losses are getting bigger than its potential gains -- and Russia doesn't regard its own dead as losses.

Something amusing reading that from an 'expert', heh.  As for Russia not regarding it's dead as losses, have more backing for that ?  In terms of individuals dying, maybe, but not too sure Russia will ignore loss of materiel and weakening formations.  Besides, think said expert was talking at a more strategic level.

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Luckily no one cares that much.

Something amusing reading that from an 'expert', heh.  As for Russia not regarding it's dead as losses, have more backing for that ?  In terms of individuals dying, maybe, but not too sure Russia will ignore loss of materiel and weakening formations.  Besides, think said expert was talking at a more strategic level.

Just a week or so befor Kharkiv counter-offensive Putin has said in Vladivostok forums, that Russia has lost nothing during this special military operation

[Malcador]

19 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Just a week or so befor Kharkiv counter-offensive Putin has said in Vladivostok forums, that Russia has lost nothing during this special military operation

Well assuming that is to be taken at face value, they'd spent lives to take objectives, I guess ? 

Reminded myself that that genius Wesley Clark gave an interview this past week, sounded almost some kind of Wehraboo as he was trying to dump on Russia's military by referring to their reliance on their reputation from WW2 - which was unfairly earned as they just threw conscripts at the Germans and only won from Lend-Lease.  Any moron can wear stars, I guess.

  

35 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

And USA has already threatened few days ago, that using nuclear or chemical weapons in UA will lead to direct NATO involvement.

Guess any use of one is not going to be a tactical one then - if one gets you the US in to kick you out of Ukraine, might as well punch as hard as you can ?  Doubt it will happen though

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

25 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well assuming that is to be taken at face value, they'd spent lives to take objectives, I guess ?

It's quite hard to know how to take it (except perhaps as a blatant lie), but even if we completely disregard human lives, I find it curious that the sinking of the flagship Moskva, not to mention all the other stuff, still qualifies as "nothing lost". Nothing is a strong word, after all.

(I don't speak Russian, so I don't know if Putin has literally said "We've lost nothing" or "We haven't lost anything", but they come to the same thing in the end.)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-has-not-lost-anything-over-actions-ukraine-2022-09-07/

 

EDIT: Rather strong legislative changes in Russia today / tomorrow: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

Edited September 20, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Flash_news_ua/status/1572210259627999232

If I were Lukashenko, I'd just do these things to just troll people.

[pmp10]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia.

And remaining separatists are also planning referenda on the same dates.
Rumors are also flying that Putin will take an official position on the subject tonight. 

Looking more and more like the point of no return.

 

[Lexx]

I mean, how can they even think to win if this man is on the russian side:

[xzar_monty]

I am not a fan of Navalny, but here's his (literal) insider's look on the question of recruiting people from Russian jails. Interesting.

 

[Malcador]

17 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I mean, how can they even think to win if this man is on the russian side:

In lieu of weapons, Belgium should send JCVD.