Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Darkpriest]

35 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Im still waiting for the US and EU economies to collapse because of  the sanctions against Russia, when is that going to happen?

You still have a couple of months of waiting  

As for Russia, it is dwfinately not sunshine amd rosses, but I do not recall them defaulting, even though PIMCO would really like those CDS they bought just before the war. 

You still have EU countries pying for Russian gas, now in rubbles, and Germany saying that there will not be sanctions on gas discussed. 

It seems EU is hoping that tanker based Oil can be replaced easier, they forget that it is not so easy to have OPEC increase their output. Meanwhile Russian oil (cheaper) will be shipped to India and China

We still did not hit the food prices crisis in its full swing, so lets wait fpr Autumn. 

Components for batteries and semiconductors are already suffering. I believe construction materials as well. 

There is a reason why Biden called Powell to the Oval office for today. 

[Elerond]

4 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

 

You still have EU countries pying for Russian gas, now in rubbles, and Germany saying that there will not be sanctions on gas discussed. 

 

Currently no energy/gas company in EU is buying gas from Russia with rubles (EU countries themselves don't buy gas from Russia)

[BruceVC]

https://qz.com/india/2171314/the-us-overtakes-china-as-indias-top-trade-partner/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

The US is now India's biggest trade partner. 

@Darkpriest

Another blow in the new Russian economic world order? But the good news is Russia still has countries like Syria, Venezuela, NK, Eretria and Cuba as allies in this exciting new union of prosperity and trade 

 

[Darkpriest]

41 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Currently no energy/gas company in EU is buying gas from Russia with rubles (EU countries themselves don't buy gas from Russia)

Maybe I'm missing something from the last week? 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-and-italy-approved-russian-gas-payments-after-nod-from-brussels/

 

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-gas-russia-rouble/

Edited May 31, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

21 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

https://qz.com/india/2171314/the-us-overtakes-china-as-indias-top-trade-partner/?utm_source=YPL&yptr=yahoo

The US is now India's biggest trade partner. 

@Darkpriest

Another blow in the new Russian economic world order? But the good news is Russia still has countries like Syria, Venezuela, NK, Eretria and Cuba as allies in this exciting new union of prosperity and trade 

 

When did I say Russian economic world order? 

What I did say, that this weaponization of USD and strong display of using trade politically, even though not in direct conflict, will cost US currency its position as a global reserve status within 5 to 10 years. 

The first canary in a coal mine are increasing bilateral currency trades and trades for resources skipping USD. Then, the wider adoption of non-SWIFT alternatives, especially in Asia. China reducing exposure in USDs for its reserves, etc. 

[Gfted1]

Ooh I like prognosticating, so a decade from now, Ill throw my hat in the ring for fusion power. Overnight the worlds energy problems will evaporate, fossil fuels will disappear, wars will cease to be fought and the Earth will return to its pre-industrial age climate. Unless a Russian hypersonic missile veers off course and destroys the prototype reactor.

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Maybe I'm missing something from the last week? 

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-and-italy-approved-russian-gas-payments-after-nod-from-brussels/

 

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-gas-russia-rouble/

As your own links say

"Two sources told Reuters that German gas importers have been told by Berlin they can open ruble accounts to pay for Russian gas without violating sanctions, as long as the payments they make to Gazprombank are not in the Russian currency."

"In its written guidance, the EU said companies can buy Russian gas without breaching sanctions if they pay in the currency of their existing contracts – and declare that doing so fulfils their contractual obligations."

 

Those companies currently play grey area buying that can cost them billions in fines if they in some point fail to follow "and declare that doing so fulfils their contractual obligations." guidance.

[BruceVC]

21 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Ooh I like prognosticating, so a decade from now, Ill throw my hat in the ring for fusion power. Overnight the worlds energy problems will evaporate, fossil fuels will disappear, wars will cease to be fought and the Earth will return to its pre-industrial age climate. Unless a Russian hypersonic missile veers off course and destroys the prototype reactor.

What about demands to end inequality by nationalization, violent protests   and blaming the " evil, Capitalist system " for all our societal woes

Do you think these will still be around 

[Elerond]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

What about demands to end inequality by nationalization, violent protests   and blaming the " evil, Capitalist system " for all our societal woes

Do you think these will still be around 

It depends, but the real electricity highwaymen, electric transfer companies, will still be around with their monopolies

[Gfted1]

Thats why we cant have nice things.  

[Gorth]

8 hours ago, Elerond said:

Those companies currently play grey area buying that can cost them billions in fines if they in some point fail to follow "and declare that doing so fulfils their contractual obligations." guidance.

As if the companies truly cares… the added cost of fines will be passed on to the consumers (or a few thousand employees let go, anything to avoid jeopardising they dividends)

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

As if the companies truly cares… the added cost of fines will be passed on to the consumers (or a few thousand employees let go, anything to avoid jeopardising they dividends)

Gorthfuscious !!! That sounds very anarchistic ....remember we dont like to unfairly criticize large, global corporations unless we have evidence or links because we dont want to create negative sentiment?

Interestingly enough its not dividend payment that sometimes motivate unethical or criminal  behavior but the objective of making the yearly target that is obviously critical to the  company being sustainable

And what you often find is performance bonuses for the C level and or board that is contractually agreed to based on the company making its target and yes their are cases of corruption because of this. But companies dont always pay dividends because the profit is often utilized elsewhere 

But its not  profitability that is the problem, all listed companies and non-listed companies have to be profitable for several reasons and when a company makes its target that is generally a sign of the company being well run

Unlike the public sector SOE  (state owned entities ) which normally dont have to be profitable. They shouldnt run at a loss but even if they do most governments will bail them out with taxpayers  money ...so its much easier to sit on a public sector board knowing you dont have to worry about a target that is critical for the survival of the company

I am just  explaining the real pressures and responsibility that private sector corporations are always under compared to public sector ...Im not justifying corruption 

Edited June 1, 2022 by BruceVC

[pmp10]

Biden wrote a short op-ed on Ukraine in NYT.
Sounds like the strategy is just to salvage what is left of the country.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Biden wrote a short op-ed on Ukraine in NYT.
Sounds like the strategy is just to salvage what is left of the country.

If you were in charge of finding a way to end Putins War what would you suggest? Lets say you could force both Russia and Ukraine to agree to certain terms what would you implement ?

[BruceVC]

https://thecradle.co/Article/columns/11133

@Darkpriest You will find this link interesting 

Here is a good read that discusses one of the attempts to create a  non-aligned Western new world economic order but it also highlights its greatest failure because without a meaningful and powerful economy like China to support this type of initiative it will have limited success. To quote from the link

" 

"Russia-China, though, is a much more complex matter. Extremely fearful of provoking US sanctions, Chinese banks are refraining – at least for the moment – to increase their deals with Russian banks, which brings us to the case of UnionPay:

The Chinese bank card provider – increasingly popular, especially across Asia – declined from partnering with Sberbank even before Russia’s largest bank was excluded by the EU and the US from the global bank messaging platform SWIFT. UnionPay also canceled plans with other Russian banks to issue UnionPay cards linked with the Russian Mir payment system, profiting from the exit of Visa and Mastercard from the Russian market.

This is still a careful balancing act for China. Earlier this year at the Boao Forum in Asia, President Xi Jinping was adamant in opposing the “wanton use of unilateral sanctions.” And over 80 percent of Chinese companies already established in Russia appeared to continue their business as usual.

Yet in practical terms, there are serious problems. The Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) have restricted financing for Russian commodities. Even the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), absolutely essential for sustainable development projects, linked or not with BRI, decided to freeze all lending to Russia and Belarus in early March to “safeguard” its “financial integrity.”

On the financial front, cautious Chinese banks, with enormous western exposure, are always balancing the fact that nearly 80 percent of global cross-border transactions are still in dollars and euros, and only two percent in yuan. So the Russian market is not exactly a priority "

 

[Darkpriest]

@BruceVC

All this is true, hence i mentioned that it will take some time, but the moves are already there. 

From a China mouthpiece. 

Global centrals banks are cutting their US dollar reserves, and rising unilateralism, trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have accelerated this trend in recent years, putting the US dollar's global hegemony at risk, Zhou said.

The reduction in China's holdings underscored that the country's resistance to the hegemony of the US dollar as a reserve currency has strengthened, Tian Yun, former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

 

[Darkpriest]

There have been reports of corruption in Ukraine, when it comes to various aid reaching the country. (it tends to  land now in private stashes for resale) 

There are also worries regarding arms, that is transferred there. 

https://www.dw.com

Europol warns of weapons falling into the wrong hands after the war

The European police agency Europol is planning to launch an international working group to prevent criminals from getting hold of the masses of weapons that have been sent to Ukraine, once the war is over.

"At some point the war will be over. We want to avoid a situation like the one that followed the war in the Balkans 30 years ago," Europol Director Catherine De Bolle told the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, referencing the wars that broke out after the collapse of Yugoslavia.

"The weapons from this war are still being used by criminal groups today," she added.

Europol aims to keep track of journeys made by terrorist and violent extremist groups to and from Ukraine.

 

[Mamoulian War]

Well, this is expected in the aftermath of every single conflict on earth, not only in Ukraine. The good news is, that Europol and responsible people learned hard lesson from Yugoslavia aftermath.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Well, this is expected in the aftermath of every single conflict on earth, not only in Ukraine. The good news is, that Europol and responsible people learned hard lesson from Yugoslavia aftermath.

Mamie I was telling my UK family about how you took in that Ukrainian student , is she still staying with your family?

I wanted to ask you some questions 

 

 

[Darkpriest]

https://www.brusselstimes.com/231363/belgium-will-not-send-howitzers-to-ukraine-due-to-unreasonable-prices

I'm quite sure, that more and more politicians will start looking on how much support costs them. 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie I was telling my UK family about how you took in that Ukrainian student , is she still staying with your family?

I wanted to ask you some questions 

 

 

Nope, she went back to Ukraine this Saturday. But in the meanwhile, me and my wife "adpoted" one 17-years old dude, who would like to study IT here. And or laws demand, that students under 18 years need to have an "supervisor" in Slovakia, if his parents are abroad.

 

But go ahead, ask your questions.

[Mamoulian War]

44 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

https://www.brusselstimes.com/231363/belgium-will-not-send-howitzers-to-ukraine-due-to-unreasonable-prices

I'm quite sure, that more and more politicians will start looking on how much support costs them. 

I bet, after some negotiations, there will be some solution, how to make it a part of the Lend Lease. As we found out, how to exchange our S300 for new Patriot.

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

Nope, she went back to Ukraine this Saturday.

I really hate that men can't leave Ukraine. The women are already returning, but there's still lots of dudes who'd like to flee the country, because they don't want to be drafted into the military. I know of at least one person who has to visit the draft office every few weeks to tell them that he is still there and "available". If he tries to leave the country "illegally", he faces prison or forced draft.

Kinda sexist, tbh.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Nope, she went back to Ukraine this Saturday. But in the meanwhile, me and my wife "adpoted" one 17-years old dude, who would like to study IT here. And or laws demand, that students under 18 years need to have an "supervisor" in Slovakia, if his parents are abroad.

 

But go ahead, ask your questions.

Some of my family in SA and UK have been following the events of Putins War. We donate money to NGO that support the Ukrainian refugees and we were talking about the millions of refugees and how East European countries have assisted in so many ways to ameliorate the reality of life for Ukrainians. You guys should be very proud of the general effort and assistance your countries have provided 

And not everyone can offer a room to take in refugees for a variety of practical and understandable reasons like space in a house, the costs and other reasons like having a stranger, that you may sympathize with, but you still dont know them

A couple of questions were asked about taking in any Ukrainian and I thought I would get your input, these questions may sound strange but they part of the understanding of the logistics . So in no particular order of significance 

• what language do you speak with each other, I assume English?
• did the student have family who stayed in Ukraine or were her family also refugees
• who paid for the food and other costs and if you paid was it expensive
• what did she use to do during the day, did she have friends and or other Ukrainians that she associated with
• And then did your family get on with her? I know it sounds weird but what was it like, did she use to talk about the war?

Thanks  

 

[BruceVC]

40 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I really hate that men can't leave Ukraine. The women are already returning, but there's still lots of dudes who'd like to flee the country, because they don't want to be drafted into the military. I know of at least one person who has to visit the draft office every few weeks to tell them that he is still there and "available". If he tries to leave the country "illegally", he faces prison or forced draft.

Kinda sexist, tbh.

I have a different view, I believe if your country is invaded you have both a patriotic and practical  duty to defend your country in anyway you can. I know Ukrainians who are not in the army but are doing other work to assist  the war effort so Im  not suggesting everyone must become a soldier because we not all soldiers 

We all only have  one country you born in and if that matters then when that country is invaded and their is a stated objective, like Putin mentioned, to raze the country to the ground you have to ask yourself what matters to you and what defines you as citizen. So I support the mandatory conscription and if I was Ukrainian and wanted to live in Ukraine I would definitely be part of the war effort in anyway possible 

But of course I understand why people immigrate and I dont question those reasons as long as its legal. But thats not the same as the Russian invasion of Ukraine