Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[Chilloutman]

I highly doubt NATO will reject Finland and Sweden, quite contrary

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The author profile on the right mentions that Esocbar is the author of "countless books". As books are my profession, I had to check this out. I may have got it wrong, but apparently "countless" means "seven". That's nothing compared to Stephen King, Joyce Carol Oates, Georges Simenon or, shall we say, "countless" others. It's the little things like this that really add to the credibility of a writer or the website publishing his stuff.

Don't think it detracts that much, but whatever you need as ammo I guess.

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I hope this is not true. If it is, it takes a kind of unprofessionalism to new levels, again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

Rather skeptical of this and news like this, myself.  Much different from news from the field.

[Azdeus]

46 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I highly doubt NATO will reject Finland and Sweden, quite contrary

Well, NATO needs unity in their approval, and Turkey is blocking it. I'm curious just what(Or maybe, who) Sweden and Finland are willing to give to join this prestigious club.

[Chilloutman]

3 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

Well, NATO needs unity in their approval, and Turkey is blocking it. I'm curious just what(Or maybe, who) Sweden and Finland are willing to give to join this prestigious club.

Erdogan is just playing his games, he will follow once US put pressure on him, I am certain of it

[kanisatha]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

I hope this is not true. If it is, it takes a kind of unprofessionalism to new levels, again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources

I'm really happy to hear of this. When Hitler began doing this same thing, that's what hastened Germany's military collapse. So Putin micromanaging his war is the best news we can get.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

And here's another interesting piece of information. Particularly relevant against the claim that "actually Russia isn't doing that much damage and most of all, it makes an effort to limit the damage it causes". Sure it does, sure it does.

Of course it's still true that Russia is not going all in. But this means very little.

 

Russia trying to limit the damage was always a bull**** propaganda... This is what remained of liberated Oleksandrivka in Kherson Olast...

 

[kanisatha]

23 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Erdogan is just playing his games, he will follow once US put pressure on him, I am certain of it

HA! You beat me to it. I was just about to post this same point. Erdogan is just playing games, looking to leverage his vote for whatever benefits and handouts he can squeeze out of other NATO states in exchange for dropping his objections. I bet Orban will be doing the same thing too.

Edited May 17, 2022 by kanisatha

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Yes it seem that it only changed it to worse direction as it seem that Nato will reject Finland's and Sweden's applications and only result was to vex Russia.

Yes I have been in those tunnels and similar tunnels/shelters in other cities.

Erdogan will change his mind in the end IMHO. He always says no, just to negotiate blackmail, their counterparts. I bet he will want something from EU to help him out with crazy inflation rolling at Turkey, for an exchange of his YES.

[kanisatha]

Here's more on Russian depravity in this war:

https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/16/putins-commanders-are-shooting-their-own-wounded-soldiers-16652742/

[Malcador]

Maybe Turkey will get their F-35s.

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Erdogan will change his mind in the end IMHO. He always says no, just to negotiate blackmail, their counterparts. I bet he will want something from EU to help him out with crazy inflation rolling at Turkey, for an exchange of his YES.

Why frame it so negatively, gotta look out for yourself.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

OK, few more interesting things in the last few days and today happened, and it looks like something is starting to boil in the Russia:

quotes from ISW May 14:

"The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on."

another quote from ISW May 16:

"Russian military bloggers continued to post analysis that is skeptical of Russian efforts and increasingly in-line with Western assessments of Russian military failures in Ukraine. One such blogger, Igor Strelkov, claimed that the Russian offensive to take Donbas has ultimately failed and that “not a single large settlement “has been liberated.[1] Strelkov even noted that the capture of Rubizhne is relatively insignificant because it happened before the new offensive in Donbas had begun. Strelkov stated that Russian forces are unlikely to liberate Donbas by the summer and that Ukrainian troops will hold their positions around Donetsk City. Strelkov notably claimed that Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.” The continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Russian war effort may fuel dissatisfaction in Russia itself, especially if Moscow continues to press recruitment and conscription efforts that send poorly-trained cannon-fodder to the front lines."

"Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is growing in occupied areas of Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces are having serious conflicts with collaborators due to interpersonal power conflicts.[4] A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing his 10,000 ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City. While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses."

Also there are some intercepted calls, where collaborators are complaining, how their life turned for worse now...

Recruiting officers are starting to catch on fire around Russia (11 so far). Something like that never happened in last 100 years...

[Mamoulian War]

DELETED

Edited May 17, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[kanisatha]

6 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Maybe Turkey will get their F-35s.

Why frame it so negatively, gotta look out for yourself.

No the F-35s are not gonna' happen. But apparently they are currently negotiating for a batch of F-16 block 70 jets, and he will try to not only get the US to agree but to also give him a cutrate price. He badly needs the jets in the face of Greece's recent shopping spree.

[Elerond]

4 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

No the F-35s are not gonna' happen. But apparently they are currently negotiating for a batch of F-16 block 70 jets, and he will try to not only get the US to agree but to also give him a cutrate price. He badly needs the jets in the face of Greece's recent shopping spree.

It is always nice to see such good allies

[xzar_monty]

21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Russia trying to limit the damage was always a bull**** propaganda... This is what remained of liberated Oleksandrivka in Kherson Olast...

Of course it was. But that claim has been presented here at least twice in all seriousness, which is a bit baffling.

My sense is that right after the initial attack was repelled and revealed as a bad idea, Russia resorted to its age-old tactics i.e. wholesale destruction of anything it can destroy with no regard for civilian life, civilian infrastructure or basically anything. One interesting thing about this is that while Russia appears to want to conquer Ukraine, it clearly has no interest in Ukrainian buildings or stuff like that, as it's quite happy to destroy everything.

[kanisatha]

Ukrainian artillery against the Russians:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3032926/howitzers-proving-very-effective-against-russians-dod-official-says/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-army-uses-guns-weapons-drone-combo-rcna27881

[213374U]

2 hours ago, Elerond said:

You don't?

Nah, I've been mindlessly reposting every "OSINT" report about ghost aces and any British tabloid piece regarding faulty nukes that I could get my hands on, but always prefaced by a lazy "reportedly" caveat emptor. Ain't nobody got time to check if the authors have written literally literally countless books.

Man, I love the smell of self-satisfied farting in the morning.

Edited May 17, 2022 by 213374U

[xzar_monty]

9 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

OK, few more interesting things in the last few days and today happened, and it looks like something is starting to boil in the Russia:

That was interesting, thank you. May we, during these rather horrifying times, express our thanks to Russian corruption, ineptitude, poor planning, lack of foresight, logistical failures, strategic blunders and all the other things that have made this a much less horrifying period than it could have been.

[Malcador]

21 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

No the F-35s are not gonna' happen. But apparently they are currently negotiating for a batch of F-16 block 70 jets, and he will try to not only get the US to agree but to also give him a cutrate price. He badly needs the jets in the face of Greece's recent shopping spree.

Well, fair enough.  But his vote is valuable, so should hold out for more.  Then again, I doubt there is real urgency to all of this, not as if Finland is facing invasion or Sweden likewise any time soon.  And as this war shows, Russia's not to be feared and Finland probably could hold them off by themselves. 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Malcador

[Elerond]

1 minute ago, 213374U said:

Nah, I've been mindlessly reposting every "OSINT" report about ghost aces and any British tabloid piece regarding faulty nukes that I could get my hands on, but always prefaced by a lazy "reportedly" caveat emptor. Ain't nobody got time to check if the authors have written literally literally countless books.

Man, I love the smell of self-satisfied farting in the morning.

Clearly, and there is no difference between between column where author uses their own expertise as proof and articles reporting claims made by other people

[xzar_monty]

1 minute ago, Elerond said:

Clearly, and there is no difference between between column where author uses their own expertise as proof and articles reporting claims made by other people

Also interesting how the natural counterpoint (i.e. coming out every time in a knee-jerk reaction) to Russian propaganda is a "British tabloid". As if someone here is using that a source.

[xzar_monty]

39 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Erdogan is just playing his games, he will follow once US put pressure on him, I am certain of it

This is my uninformed take on this as well, although it would be extremely interesting to know the details (which I'm unlikely to get to know, but what do I know).

[Malcador]

Just now, xzar_monty said:

Also interesting how the natural counterpoint (i.e. coming out every time in a knee-jerk reaction) to Russian propaganda is a "British tabloid". As if someone here is using that a source.

People do use them as one here, though, you've not noticed that in all these threads ?

[213374U]

3 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Also interesting how the natural counterpoint (i.e. coming out every time in a knee-jerk reaction) to Russian propaganda is a "British tabloid". As if someone here is using that a source.

lmfao

Guy, someone posted a Metro piece about Russian commanders executing their own soldiers right last page. But yeah, who's using British tabloids as a source?

In terms of "countless", how many books has the writer of that piece authored?

[Mamoulian War]

11 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Also interesting how the natural counterpoint (i.e. coming out every time in a knee-jerk reaction) to Russian propaganda is a "British tabloid". As if someone here is using that a source.

To be fair, I have used it probably few times, but I have always posted a disclaimer next to my post in this thread... The funny thing is, that for a few times, I have found out that few articles in these tabloids, had much better sources, research and were more "fool-proof", than some articles in medias, which I consider as very trustworthy... Fog of War takes it's toll...

Still anything posted by British Tabloids is 1000x more trustworthy, than anything played out in Russian media

Edited May 17, 2022 by Mamoulian War