Politics XXXIV (Politics never changes)

[Skarpen]

2 hours ago, 213374U said:

Not exactly. You will be arrested for (repeatedly) ignoring a lawful order, which amounts to resisting authority. The order in question is to accompany them to the station for an identity check, but you will not be under arrest so they can't cuff you, book you, make you spend the night in a cell, or subject you to any of the other generally unpleasant consequences of an actual arrest.

If you could just ignore cops' orders and walk away, they wouldn't be the "authority" at all.

Please remember that we all live in different law systems. I don't know how it's in your country, Spain right? But in Poland and as Volo say in Canada as well if policeman doesn't specifically tell you you are detained or arrested for a reason then you can just walk away and you are not obligated to speak to them. It's not common now but Volo story does sound familiar as it was something police did after '89 transformation often.  

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Skarpen said:

Please remember that we all live in different law systems. I don't know how it's in your country, Spain right? But in Poland and as Volo say in Canada as well if policeman doesn't specifically tell you you are detained or arrested for a reason then you can just walk away and you are not obligated to speak to them. It's not common now but Volo story does sound familiar as it was something police did after '89 transformation often.  

No, you are technically not obligated to answer cops' questions here, either. You do have to comply with a lawful order though  -- and that's a constant anywhere there's cops. An order to identify yourself is in practice always lawful here.

The crux is whether and how cops can lawfully demand to see some ID which is, indeed, a matter that's far from universal. Here, they can, and since they don't need a compelling reason to do so, it falls to the citizen to argue that they didn't need to. There has never been to my knowledge a case where cops were disciplined for unnecessarily demanding that a citizen identify themselves.

Edited April 7, 2020 by 213374U

[Guard Dog]

9 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Im not sure your assessment of the USA banks is accurate at all, its important everyone understands what is working in the USA and what can sustain potentially 3-4 months of economic shutdown. After 2008 

 

GB you take time to move into gold as a potential less risk investment and that is considered a prudent strategy so whatever you may think is a good idea now please read my point below as it is relevant to why someone like you is actually what we are concerned about ...we dont want you to panic and try to move your investment because this can seriously economic recovery considering the  reality of the USA economy

You must wait enough 1 week before doing anything, you must realize people are looking at the economic data as if its the reality. Its not, this is all about the artificial shutdown  and this is due to that. Its not your normal economic contraction so any analysis on the problem needs to realize this

I was confronted by a sobering report around exactly this  happening where the real risk to USA recovery is caused by panic decisions which when people do the same can lead to real crisis 

I don't make panic decisions with money. I got out of stocks for multiple reasons. The biggest of which is I needed money to buy enough arable real estate for my idea to work. None of my "farm" lots are mortgaged. I paid cash for all of them. No property I currently own is mortgaged. There is a reason for that: I have no plans to sell in the near future. These are long term investments. I'm betting that Dyersburg, Union City, and Brownsville are going to continue to grow. 10 years, 20 years down the road I'm betting all of these lots will be rezoned for commercial/industrial or residential. THEN they will pay off in a big way. What I paid tens of thousands for might be worth millions. In the mean time they are earning a quarterly income. It will never be enough to "pay off" the price but that will happen when I sell, one way or another. That is how i work when it comes to managing money. I am no gambler. I don't even consider short term gains. I don't "play" stocks, I don't "flip" property. I look for low risk opportunities that have a good chance of long term gain.

Gold is almost never a bad bet. I started buying it in 2008 when it looked like Obama might be elected. It was trading for around $900/oz then. I didn't have a lot of money back then. I was still living paycheck to paycheck. But I bought as much as I could every month. Because everything I read predicted Obama was going to win, spend a f--k load of money and the long term effect would be debt monetization by currency devaluation. That made gold a good bet over the next 5 years. And oh my god was it ever. I sold it all over $2100 and had real money for investments for the first time in my life. Right now gold is north of $1600. Not such a great deal for growth. The thing to remember about a commodity, ANY commodity, is that is has a real objective value. Gold has an objective value of around $1100/oz. The objective value of a commodity is tied to it's market price like a tether. The higher the trading price of a commodity rises the more it's objective value will begin to pull it down. Panic buying a thing, but in the end the #1 rule of money management is still "Never pay more for a widget that it's worth". 

One of two things will happen to the banking system. It will collapse or it won't. If it does we are back to the 1930's for a time. Hopefully that great depression won't take a World War to pull out of. Maybe if that happens we'll reset to a more proven economic management model. Or a more oppressive one. If it does not, Mr. Keynes wins out again and we'll go back to the boom and bust cycle, growth then recession, of the last 80 years. No matter what happens, we'll be fine in a few years as long as this is not taken as an opportunity to do some radical remaking of the economy. 

[Guard Dog]

8 hours ago, Gromnir said:

would be nice if you were right, but am believing you are wrong. need for ag use land is gonna remain relative constant regardless o' economic tragedies. residential rental property, much like during the recent recession, is gonna be in greater demand. 

...

to be blunt, a disproportionate number o' older americans is gonna die. those who have assets to leave behind to families will be enriching their children, and statistical, those children won't be needing much help compared to the average american. converse, far too many americans is gonna be suffering severe economic hardship-- those with the least will suffer the most. not a hunch: is gonna be many families who lose businesses and homes. simple is. people lose homes and they is gonna have much difficulty buying a new home for at least a couple years. that is a situation ripe for exploitation by the haves.

is a fundamental misunderstanding that is pervasive regarding who is hurt when modern market catastrophes hit.  sure, the wealthy take the biggest loss in terms o' total dollars 'cause o' their investment is larger, but such harm affects upper middle class and middle class who is perhaps overinvested in products which do not have fixed roi. the genuine wealthy is gonna lose many millions and billions o' dollars, but they is nevertheless gonna come out the other side o' this recent cataclysm with disposable income.

we need make major changes to the economy 'cause as bad as were the recession, the covid fallout is gonna make income inequality far worse than it is today. modern day robber barons (and even folks like Gromnir if we had an urge to do so) will take advantage o' current tax breaks and fact they is particular well suited to buy property on the cheap and then rent to desperate folks. a few years pass and cheap property appreciates and the rich get richer.

HA! Good Fun!

No you're not wrong on that potential outcome. Let me change what I said then. Residential real estate is no good for me. The townhouse I owned and rented out was mortgaged. The the tenant ran into a financial hardship suddenly their problems become my problems because Webster Bank still expected that mortgage payment from me every month. The biggest problem with renting IS renters. Although I was fortunate in that both my tenants were nice folks who treated my home like it was theirs. But I still had to fix things and do what I could to make them happy. My property near Union City is leased to a dairy farm. Not one of those cows has ever e-mailed me with a complaint. Not THAT is a model tenant IMO! 

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

I don't make panic decisions with money. I got out of stocks for multiple reasons. The biggest of which is I needed money to buy enough arable real estate for my idea to work. None of my "farm" lots are mortgaged. I paid cash for all of them. No property I currently own is mortgaged. There is a reason for that: I have no plans to sell in the near future. These are long term investments. I'm betting that Dyersburg, Union City, and Brownsville are going to continue to grow. 10 years, 20 years down the road I'm betting all of these lots will be rezoned for commercial/industrial or residential. THEN they will pay off in a big way. What I paid tens of thousands for might be worth millions. In the mean time they are earning a quarterly income. It will never be enough to "pay off" the price but that will happen when I sell, one way or another. That is how i work when it comes to managing money. I am no gambler. I don't even consider short term gains. I don't "play" stocks, I don't "flip" property. I look for low risk opportunities that have a good chance of long term gain.

Gold is almost never a bad bet. I started buying it in 2008 when it looked like Obama might be elected. It was trading for around $900/oz then. I didn't have a lot of money back then. I was still living paycheck to paycheck. But I bought as much as I could every month. Because everything I read predicted Obama was going to win, spend a f--k load of money and the long term effect would be debt monetization by currency devaluation. That made gold a good bet over the next 5 years. And oh my god was it ever. I sold it all over $2100 and had real money for investments for the first time in my life. Right now gold is north of $1600. Not such a great deal for growth. The thing to remember about a commodity, ANY commodity, is that is has a real objective value. Gold has an objective value of around $1100/oz. The objective value of a commodity is tied to it's market price like a tether. The higher the trading price of a commodity rises the more it's objective value will begin to pull it down. Panic buying a thing, but in the end the #1 rule of money management is still "Never pay more for a widget that it's worth". 

One of two things will happen to the banking system. It will collapse or it won't. If it does we are back to the 1930's for a time. Hopefully that great depression won't take a World War to pull out of. Maybe if that happens we'll reset to a more proven economic management model. Or a more oppressive one. If it does not, Mr. Keynes wins out again and we'll go back to the boom and bust cycle, growth then recession, of the last 80 years. No matter what happens, we'll be fine in a few years as long as this is not taken as an opportunity to do some radical remaking of the economy. 

You are making some prudent decisions, well played. You have good investments , do you make these decisions by yourself or do you use a financial adviser  ?

[Guard Dog]

15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

You are making some prudent decisions, well played. You have good investments , do you make these decisions by yourself or do you use a financial adviser  ?

Mostly myself. i was working with a real estate lawyer for a time but got some bad advice that landed me in IRS trouble. I work with a different one now. She handles all my lease contracts but that's it. 

[IndiraLightfoot]

Alright, sorry for being lazy, and you have prolly already touched upon this question several times, but I'm curious: This being the US election year and all, and with Covid-19 spreading like wild fire beyond the hot spots, and nobody is really allowed to join public gatherings, and partake in any rallies - then how will they elect their presidential candidates? Are they converting the entire process into a digital system - and then somehow have debates on the telly? Problem is; They wouldn't be allowed to work on such shows to begin with, as such airing broadcasts would count as a gathering, no? All this sounds like a huge dilemma. Will the elections be postponed or something? 

[Amentep]

Most states have an absentee ballot system which is in my state a mailed paper ballot.  in the case, locally, they've sent out absentee ballot request forms to everyone.

[BruceVC]

Oh,  I have a question for USA  members. One of my bothers told me that the majority of medical aid options are provided for people from the company the person works for so if the person leaves the company he loses the medical aid options ?

[ShadySands]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Oh,  I have a question for USA  members. One of my bothers told me that the majority of medical aid options are provided for people from the company the person works for so if the person leaves the company he loses the medical aid options ?

About half the population buys their insurance through their employer but you can purchase it privately or if you qualify get it from the gov't

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, ShadySands said:

About half the population buys their insurance through their employer but you can purchase it privately or if you qualify get it from the gov't

Okay interesting, so if you lose your job  due to the virus like now what happens to your healthcare savings and what happens if you need to use a hospital ?

[Gfted1]

18 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Okay interesting, so if you lose your job  due to the virus like now what happens to your healthcare savings and what happens if you need to use a hospital ?

COBRA

[ShadySands]

No idea really, I mean, you probably hope and pray nothing happens or that you can qualify for some program. When I got laid off a few years back I still had my insurance until the end of the month but as a disabled vet I was able to sign up for VA health care

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

COBRA

 

1 minute ago, ShadySands said:

No idea really, I mean, you probably hope and pray nothing happens or that you can qualify for some program. When I got laid off a few years back I still had my insurance until the end of the month but as a disabled vet I was able to sign up for VA health care

Thanks for sharing guys, the reason is my brother thinks everyone retrenched now has no access to healthcare but this will differ from person to person as some people may have access through different plans. Last question, if  most of these jobs lost would be informal sector like restaurants would informal sector people normally pay for additional healthcare and would a restaurant even offer medical aid ? So I assume it would depend on the persons wages\salaries ? 

[ShadySands]

COBRA was way too expensive for me BTW. Not sure how the premiums are calculated

[Amentep]

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