Elerond

I just think that Israel is likes to assassinate people so they are willing to lie in order to get support for their action and that let US (Trump, Hegseth and co ) to have attitude that things will go like they went in Venezuela when they decided to participate. As even though they didn't actually change leadership Venezuela, still Venezuela didn't have willingness to fight, which probably led said people to underestimate how conflict with Iran will go. I think they now have realized that what their adviser has said maybe true, but there is little they can do than see conflict to its end

Israel has long history of assassinating leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, even though it has not worked for them in past they still continue to do it. So their assessment isn't that good.

I don't think they were planning to do ground invasion, as they didn't move any ground troops on the area during the months they we moving forces there. They maybe forced to do ground invasion in order to keep strait of Hormuz open, but I think they really believed that if they kill the leadership Iran will just surrender same way as Venezuela did.

Reportedly Kuwait's air defense shot in active aerial combat between US jets and Iranian jets and drones.

There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iran's army and political structure is created to endure war, so regime change is unlikelly. I would guess it is more fear and terror that was goal so that other countries don't dare opposite US. Also it distrupts local politics both in Israel and US. Which allows unpopular moves like giving Oracle access to medicare data and allowance to use X's grok ai to use it as training data.

It was bit sarcastic joke. Last summer I said that I don't believe that US strikes were able to eliminate Iran's nuclear program only ensure that they will seek nuclear weapon

Iran's nuclear program was annihilated last summer according to Trump and co, so interesting to see it again as reason to attack

EU needs stable alliance to ensure that it has efficient ability to respond anywhere in EU. But it is then question of should EU take additional steps to become federation and form its own military or should member states form EU wide defense alliance that works separately from EU. This isn't new question but something that has been talked even before EU was founded. NATO has kept this question as hypothetical for now, but now it looks that EU needs to make its mind on this issue. Although currently separate alliance is option that can be done because EU currently isn't able to change its constitution. Currently NATO can't function without USA, as majority of its command and intelligence structure is in hands of US. So if USA leaves NATO there is anyway need to reform the alliance and how it is structured in such extend that it will be almost new alliance even if it is still called NATO.

Nato is not only military organization for EU's and Europe's defense, but it is largest and it has best ability to work all over Europe. There are EU's RDC force, Eurocorps, Joint Expeditionary Force, European Rapid Operational Force and there are national rapid deployment forces and then there are of course national armies, but single command structure during crisis is quite important which is why NATO is the main defensive alliance currently. I don't think there is possibility that any other solution could cost more than 5% commitment, as we are speaking over 1000 billion dollars per year cost increase compared to current state. Question is what kind threat Russian poses? If USA leaves NATO, it would still be world largest military, although in military spending it would be second. Biggest issue in USA leaving NATO would be that most of the NATO's command lines currently go trough USA and restructuring and building those back would mean about same as creating new alliance although without needing approvals from the member state governments. Main issue of USA leaving NATO would be that most NATO members heavily lean on US made weapon systems which they would need to replace in case USA isn't ally anymore. And EU would need to build its own nuclear umbrella, as nuclear weapons that France has aren't enough.

Yes, but it is only thing that is talked when speaking of how countries contribute to Nato. Finland has army of 800k with budget of 8 billion dollars, but that does not count in the talks as we need to over double our spending or we don't contribute enough.

What is adequately? EU members used 450 billion dollars in for their militaries last year, which is about same as China and Russia together. 5% GDP target that USA demands would rise EU's defense spending to ~1200 billion dollars. Even 3.5% will rise it to 800 billion dollars EU members already has spend on defense so much that only USA rivals them. Their weakness is that there is no central command for military forces in EU, which is they need alliances like NATO to be able to have organized defense. But when NATO becomes a liability where you cannot trust that it will organize and lead defense if there is need then there is need for another military union that will take that role.

As defensive alliance NATO is something that its members should be able to rely for defense. Because otherwise it is useless alliance.

I find it quite funny that both Germany and Italy said that they would like to join but their constitutions forbid them to join because of the rules of the board, taking account how current constitutions of those countries were written.

Most important thing in the trade deal is that coffee price should drop. I am am willing to let farmers to lose their livelihood for cheaper coffee 😉

It seems that Venezuela has new president, as Trump declared that he is acting president of Venezuela.

Considering how poorly maintained some of the US government databases have been, I would not be surprised if all the ICE agent's personal data is already in sale in darker corners of the internet. And when public hatred towards official rise there is always those who see it as opportunity make fame and publish data from one of the many data breaches in past.

Interesting how qualified immunity has been upgraded to absolute immunity.

No worries current regime of love and peace has already declared her domestic terrorist.

Clearly she is even worse drug dealer, she should repent as soon as possible and send oil instead of drugs to US 😉

Maduro didn't get in power without support (from politicians, officials, judges, military etc.). And those that supported him and his questionable leadership, most likely will not suddenly want in power members of opposition that they have persecuted. Member of opposition are now boldened and they will see that this is their opportunity to cease the power. It also seems that Venezuela's armed forces are divided of who they want to support. So the likelihood of civil war is high. There are also those actual drug barons in South America that see this as opportunity to have their puppet in control.

Likelyhood of civil war in Venezuela increased quite lot. They were already quite close, and now current regime is in chaos, but probably will not give up their position willingly and I am not sure that opposition has enough power to force regime change without bloodshed. This will also most likely start new era of forced regime changes all over the world. Or at least attempts. As what is allowed to one is seen allowed to all.

Carbon import tax is already implemented, it comes in effect starting from today. It adds same tax/cost to imported steel, cement, hydrogen, aluminum, fertilizers and electricity which is paid for those products if they are produced in EU via EU's emission trading system. It has been in transitional phase from 2023. During transition phase importers only needed to declare emissions and buy Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate. Producers in EU also lose their free CO2 allowances and now they need to pay for each CO2 ton they produce. EU parliament and commission are looking to extend hard cut deadline for combustion engines, so that there would be no total ban for combustion engines in 2035, because of lobbying from European car manufactures. Current plan is to allow production of new combustion engines after 2035, but they need to use renewable fuel or hydrogen. Renewable energy become cheaper today compared to energy produced by fossil fuel, because energy producers using fossil fuel lost their free CO2 allowances. Renewable Energy Financing Mechanism (RENEWFM) is the largest EU financial aid tool for building new energy production.

AlphaFold is specialized AI model, which was the norm before LLM and other generative models took over the market. Amount of memory and processing time it needs to run is much lower than what the generic generative models need. Models like AlphaFold will not save AI bubble from bursting because they don't need those trillions of dollars worth of hardware, that has caused the bubble to form.

Somewhat ironic to use second and third generation migrants as example how migrants are bad for America

Considering that they followed EU rules still 5 years ago in this matter, I would say no. Issue with importing food from America is in USA's poor documentation of origin of many of their foods. Like for example there is no need for cattle famers to document where their cows have been born. So they have lots of cows imported from Mexico and Canada and there is currently no way to trace origin of most of the beef they sell. In order to allow American foods in EU, EU would need to remove many restrictions from its own members, because otherwise they would give US companies exorbitant advantage on the market. And if politician give market advantage for US food companies, they need to be prepared on fact that EU farmers will bury their homes in literal **** even more than they currently do https://www.instagram.com/reels/DSNrgY-gCTP/