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Elerond

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Everything posted by Elerond

  1. I am not absolute sure of that it was zealotry that sold Lutheranism considering for example that in Sweden (and Finland, as it was then part of Sweden) converted to Lutheranism because Sweden had acquired heavy debt during Swedish War of Liberation that it had hard time to pay back to Lübeck, so when Luther started to preach that church should not have worldly possession, then king of Sweden Gustav Vasa saw opportunity get rid of political influence of Rome (as then Pope Clement VII insisted that Gustav should reinstate Gustav Trolle ally of king Christian II of Denmark and Kalmar Union) and pay Sweden's debts same time and ordered The Reformation. Same time in England Henry VIII also reformed English church and founded Anglicanism, because he also wanted get rid of political influence of Rome and take Church's money and lands to the Crown. In 16th Protestantism was able to success because Pope Clement VII wasn't that good in diplomacy even though he was elected because of his high reputation as a stateman. Although Pope Clement VII didn't have easiest time as Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire and king Francis I of France were in cold war, both demanding that Pope would take their side, Ottoman Empire was invading Eastern Europe. But one would have probably should considered that such time is not the best time to make enemies among European royalty, especially among those who control border lands and therefore are farthest from Roma's influence. But at end Pope Clement VI succeeded to lose Sweden, England, big sunk of current Germany, get Rome sacked by Charles V and get himself imprisoned, I don't think any other Pope has been such big influence in European religion and politics.
  2. Emil would like to see western countries to give Ukraine permission to use long ranged weaponry against targets in Russia, so his reporting may have bit more pessimistic view in order to influence western politician that listen his analyzes
  3. When there isn't any living soul in Gaza then war ends naturally, if Trump wins this outcome becomes more easily reachable when US don't anymore try to blackmail Israel to offer humanitarian aid to Gaze by withholding weapon deliveries and US will also "Blow Iran to Smithereens" and give Israel green light to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities So I can see why Trump is gaining support among Muslims and especially Arabs that are concerned about Israel's actions in Middle East and how people's lives there are destroyed, as he promises to rebuild Gaza best place in Israel .
  4. Results are quite bad for Moldova's hopes to join EU. Big sunk of 'Yes'-side's votes come from moldovians that don't live in Moldova Majority of moldovians that live in Moldova voted 'No'. President does not currently have people's favor. There is high change the politician that favor Russia will win parliament election next spring. And it will anyway be uphill fight to make changes that EU requires. So Moldova will most likely fail to make them in soon enough to get their application to EU processed now when EU countries see that it could be good move against Russia. So if politicians that favor Russia win then Moldova probably will not join to EU in next 20 years. Especially when Georgia sided with Russia and will to support Ukraina is vanishing. So at end it looks that moldovians voted against EU membership
  5. In UN report of implementation of there treaty also states Israel had broken daily one of the fundamental parts of the treaty full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon "Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace continued almost daily with unmanned aerial vehicles, and often with fixed-wing aircraft, including fighter jets" So it is typical situation where all the parties break the agreement constantly an UNFIL's role is to prevent escalation of hostilities.
  6. Not having outside threat would be existential threat for Netanyahu
  7. Company in question (BAC Consulting KFT) is Hungarian, but it is just consulting shell company, that does not have any production facilities, even though it had license from the Taiwanese company to use their brand and design to make pagers. Hungarian officials say that those pagers have not made in Hungary or never been in Hungary. Also BAC Constulting's web pages disappeared from the net today. So it looks that plot has been much more complex than intercepting shipment somewhere and putting explosives in the devices. Also plan has been in process multiple months or even over two years considering that BAC Consulting was established in 2022. Also it looks like that company didn't have any employees only its founder is listed as shareholder. Company has reported about half million euro revenue from 2022 and from 2023. Company also claims that it has done jobs for European Commission and UK Department of International Development, but these claims could have not been proven to be truth when journalist have asked about them from the Commission and DoID. Also founder claimed for NBC that her company is only intermediate and does not produce pagers. Founder also says that she has been employed by European Commission on her linked page, but Commissions spokesperson says that this is false, but says that it is possible that she may have worked for Commission through external providers and consultancies (because there isn't usually any list of employees of such companies in Commission's records). There is possibility that BAC Consulting and its founder does not have anything to do with this case, except that it has been used to make it possible for Hezbollah to buy the pagers in first place, meaning that company is used to get production license for the pagers and they have been then produced actually by some other company that didn't want their name anywhere near to those pagers.
  8. It seem that Mossad may have committed terrorist crime in Europe, but they probably will not get charged as the victim aka company which provided pagers for the Hezbollah should acknowledge that it has also broken anti terrorist laws by exporting pagers to Hezbollah. But targeting production lines of consumer goods will create bad precedent anyway.
  9. Biden announced that he will drop out
  10. That does not mean anything. For example in Finland we have currently in government an anti-immigration, anti-EU, formerly pro Russian, traditional family values party, who had member in EU parliament that demanded that all immigrants regardless of their background needs to be deported. He himself is married to immigrant from south america. Party eventually kicked him out because he was too pro immigrant. In recent European parliament elections same party's member that got highest vote count is gay man who is married to immigrant from africa, which does not prevent him from advocating deportation of all immigrats and making gay marriage illegal. So personal lives of the politicians don't tell anything about what kind policies they will try to enable
  11. There is no point, president is immune for such charges
  12. It tells about Russians that fight against Russia, it focus on group called Karelian team, which claims that they are willing to fight to separate eastern Karelia from Russia, which is interesting for Finland ad Russia (Soviet Union) conquered Eastern Karelia from Finland in WW2. Writer of the article tells that there are little knowledge about Karelian team and some say iy is Russian psyop in order to find disloyal people, then article moves to interview of man they call Dante who says they are part of Karelia team. In interview Dante tells that Karelia team is currently doing operations in Belgrod area for Ukraine. He says that they do operations mainly during nights and they are lightly armed and fast moving with good night vision gear. He then tells Karelia team wants independence for Eastern Karelia and team welcoms all finno ugric and nordic russsians that want freedom from Russia. There are couple pictures of Dante which show his gear and him holding Eastern Karelian flag from time when it was part of Finland.
  13. If we look Trump's first term, we can say there isn't ideas that are too extreme for the Trump. Question is more about how much support he gets in congress to push the ideas. Trump himself is principleless vane that goes where wind (his base's opinion) at that moment blows.
  14. I am not sure if democracy is winner when party that gets 1/3 of votes gets 2/3 of the seats
  15. Technically It is part of the name of the person that was patron of the person that found the island.
  16. They don't have similar punch like for example The Onion https://www.theonion.com/advisors-assure-biden-this-will-blow-over-once-all-gaza-1851452315
  17. State of Palestine is member of ICC. Them failing to arrest Hamas leaders in question could cause issues when they try to get international recognition.
  18. First batch they got contained according to some media source 50 missiles, but that number does not have official confirmation, Ukraine has received some additional missiles from UK, France and Italy, but total number of delivered missiles is most likely less than 100. EDIT: SCALP aka Storm Shadows are still manufactured. Greece ordered undisclosed amount in 2022 and UK has replaced missiles that it has send to Ukraine. Total number of SCALP missiles that have been manufactured in past 20 years is less than 3000.
  19. At least they didn't send national guard to shoot the protesting students. So there has been some progress in last 54 years.
  20. Isn't SA effectivelly a Russian ally against USA in world politics these days?
  21. If any NATO member sends their troops to Ukraine outside of NATO mission, then those troops aren't protected by NATO's articles. Same way as their troops in Middle east or Africa etc. aren't protected by NATO's articles. But I am not sure I there is actually any country that actually wants send their troops outside of some grandstanding speeches. Sending old armament from their end of life storages was already difficult political process to do
  22. Security council's resolutions are legally binding (although UN charter does not mention term resolution, but uses terms decision and recommendation) and all UN members are agreed to enforce them, when they joined to UN. But without that legal enforcement which all the UN members have agreed on, those resolutions are just same as presidential statements that just decelerated wishes of majority of security council. But when two permanent members of security council say that resolution is non-binding, then the legal binding of the resolution is on thin ice and they will most likely veto its enforcement in UN. ICJ decision are enforced by Security council, but any of the five permanent members have right to veto any effort of enforcement. With Security Council's resolutions security council should have already decided way to enforce the resolution or otherwise security council needs to come up with another resolution where they agree with how they will enforce the previous resolution and then any of the five permanent members can veto any effort of enforcement.
  23. It is like the summaries of the resolution from news (as UN has not released official version of the resolution yet) says "the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages". For which Hamas said that resolution will allow them to start again negotiations of releasing the hostages. When both sides of the conflict, see that resolution does not have any other effect than how it impacts their political grandstanding in international setting and resolution does not have any consequences for either side or for members of security council, if 'demands' of the resolution aren't met, then resolution becomes non-bidding as it is just set of wishes on paper. There just is not political will in UN or anywhere to make those resolution to be actually binding and every one knows it, which is why UN security council and other institutions have lost all the political power to resolve conflicts that they may have had in past.
  24. Russia has made quite lot extremist groups angry in Syria, Afghanistan and West Africa and as in past two years Russia has focused its intelligence to sabotage Ukraine and hunt domestic dissidents, those extremist groups may have had opportunity infiltrate in Russia and plan terrorist strikes. Considering that Russia has not been very selective when they have hired mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, so those extremist groups could have even got paid by Russia to sent their people there.
  25. Both US and UK claim that wording of the resolution is non-binding, meaning that they will not do anything to enforce it. And they most likely will not will let anyone else either to enforce it. Also resolution does not seem to have any effect on Israel's willingness to continue their rampage, so impact of the resolution will most likely to be next to nothing.
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