Well, there's not that much slack in the historical record for most of the characters. Pompey has to do what he actually did, as does Caesar, Marcus Anthony, Brutus, Cato, and Cicero. I find the stuff with the quasi-historical characters like Pullo and Lucius and the slightly historical like Atia to be pretty unpredictable - I didn't see Lucius leaving the Legion at all, although it makes sense now that we see how deeply religious he is.
I wish they'd focus on Cato and Cicero a bit more, though.
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Ya, but who didn't see Pullo fighting in the bar. Who didn't see him being the cause of the fight at the end of the episode that forces Caesars hand? Who didn't see that Lucius wife was actually cheating on him and it was her kid. Who didn't see Glabius getting killed when that girl came to visit. Hell, who didn't see pullo ending up with that cart of gold.
Basically, while watching the episodes, I know whats about to happen 5 minutes or more before it happens. I have been rarely surprised by this show. Not much in terms of twists or just new ideas. It seems like it is just recycled ideas with a Roman twist. All I'm saying.