pmp10

It seems winter missile strikes are already starting. Ukrainian electrical grid is already badly strained so this could become a serious problem. That said, Russia can't exactly blow up nuclear power plants and winter was forecasted to be mild.

Just finished Alan Wake 2. A mediocre game but a fascinating experience. After decades of gaming you'd think you've seen it all, and then Herald of Darkness begins to play...

But Article 5 comes with no obligation. Even if it did, you have no way to punish states refusing to fulfil them. For all we know, without US NATO might turn out to be all about 'Thoughts and prayers'.

So after Zelensky's victory plan was ignored in the west it has finally come to nukes. "We need NATO or nukes … and we want NATO" He will likely be forced to retract that soon, but this might be a sign that he is finally starting to get it.

In somewhat related news: More rumors are surfacing that Russia is considering arming the Houthis. Likely still far from a done deal, but it's a good indication that Russian escalation options are more than just nukes.

Iran is said to have delivered ballistic missiles to Russia. That's an escalation a level (or two) beyond suppling Shahed drones. But also likely means no bigger war brewing in the middle-east.

This was likely an open secret for a while now. Chances are that news release was timed to distract from Kursk. Just another shot in the propaganda wars.

First F-16s have finally been delivered to Ukraine. For now they are supposed to be few in number.

If FT is to be believed, the US will now redirect recent Patriot production to Ukraine. That's in addition to one more battery that is to be transferred soon. Precaution, reaction or desperation? We won't know until winter bombing campaign begins.

There was more to it then that. He also wants remainder of Zaporizhzhia and whole of Kherson before talks even start. It's likely a response to the Ukrainian summit in Switzerland, but even so he clearly he has no problem with a long war.

The US-Ukraine security deal is about to be signed at G7. It seems that after one year of negotiations US is finally ready to commit to high level consultations in case of another invasion. These used to be called 'security guarantees' a year ago.

Interesting piece on Shoigu's replacement. Tweet of note from it: Looks like attrition war for years to come.

Russia is slowly resuming strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Seems a little sub-optimal to do this only after the winter.

Some interesting weaponry lessons from Ukraine emerged. Most interesting point being: Chances are that whatever technological edge Ukraine enjoyed has been lost by now.

Another update in the forever search of wunderwaffe: The GLSDBs have failed in Ukraine. I bet that played a part in finally officially transferring ATACMS.