pmp10

It's exactly about the timing as zapad is just about to start in Belarus. After the strikes on UK/EU affiliated sites in Kiev they have now moved to intimidating NATO and Poland. We will see if the west dares to respond in kind.

On the eve on invasion there were already some European troops in Ukraine handling training. Unsurprisingly they were evacuated with priority. I doubt Ukraine will trust any guarantees that don't include a trip-wire force, or at least enough foreign troops that could be tied-up in every strategic target that Russia is about to hit.

Before the upcoming Trump/Putin meeting various rumors are flying as to potential cease-fire terms. Unsurprisingly permanent peace is not likely, but diplomatically there are first signs of optimism in a long time. We will soon see if this is serious or only a elaborate blame-game.

Not even Israel can censor away a hit by a 1,500 kg warhead. Far more likely it was simply shot down.

They launched at Israel their latest and greatest - Khorramshahr-4. There are no reports of it hitting anything, but then a single missile could have been a message to other gulf states.

There is always (admittedly a little conspiratorial) possibility that far from being rogue, Israel is doing exactly what it was asked to do. The wider west could have already made the decision to start bombing but hopes Israel can win by itself or at least goad Iran into escalation serving as an excuse. Granted, it does seems a little too clever for Trump.

There is no reliable way for us to judge that. Iran wasn't offered any face-savers yet, but then the operation was planned for weeks.

That's just US pretending multipolar order isn't real. Their ability to restrain Israel is clearly nil at this point.

NATO troops will still station there, Ukraine will continue to be westernized. If it is ever allowed to join EU it will be covered by defense treaty anyway. Russia has no reason to accept this, not unless US is offering something much bigger then sanction relief. I wonder how certain is eastern Europe of future US presence.

Zelensky dosen't need to give up on Crimea just as Putin won't officially drop claims to Kherson. I assume it's the US recognition that's being offered in this case.

So Russia effectively admits strategic defeat, allows Ukraine to join EU, ignores NATO troops stationed there and even allows US control of Zaporizhzhia's NPP. All because Ukraine admits it won't join NATO and US accepts that Crimea is in Russian control? Bribing Russians with what they already have. A classic of diplomacy.

Trump seems to still be pushing that mineral deal so it seems unlikely. Unless he can get a political 'win' somewhere else.

Wait until you've worked under enterprise architect hired that way.

There is also the carrot of sanctions lifting. I'm just not sure how much peace it can buy.

There is still room to add before we reach Iran-level of sanctions. But it's purely for show at this stage, mitigation strategies are already developed and in place.