I have no doubt that 4E will be a commercial success regardless of what a few of us "hardcore D&D folk" think of the game, but I disagree that it is difficult to bring new people into the game with 3.5 edition. I keep on bringing new people to the game regularly. Just last week, I recruited 2 new players (completely new to D&D) to my campaign and this kind of thing happens periodically. Of course, they don't generate any sales for WotC, since I already own a PHB and other stuff that I let them use, but who knows, perhaps in time they may become customers too.