With this holiday's game lineup...

[Sm1tty Sm1t]

Halo 3: ODST. Modern Warfare 2. Assassin's Creed 2. Borderlands. These are only a FEW of the games on my radar and yet the only game I have preordered is Alpha Protocol. With the exception of Halo, I firmly believe each and every one of those games is a DAY ONE purchase for me. I'm not even including things like Brutal Legend and Beatles Rock Band. So against a lineup of established and well-hyped games, how will Alpha Protocol fare?

 

I think some MASSIVE marketing needs to start right now for this game to compete. We dont want AP to flop, only to be found in March as a GREAT GAME. We want AP to be top 3 or 4 and have people drooling over it.

[Zoma]

Hard to say. It could be a surprising hit like Shadow Complex, or a slow build up of fanbase like Planescape Torment. Doubtful it will be anything like the Halo or Call of Duty Series popularity though which is designed for the mainstream.

[Cl_Flushentityhero]

Well, mostly, I think the visuals are a hard sell. The above blockbusters you mention all have pretty impressive graphics, which tends to move copies and smooth over any criticisms (shallow) people have. That said, I agree in that marketing on Sega's part wouldn't hurt. That said, there's no way they'll invest anything like the ad budget for MW2, AC2, or ODST.

[Sm1tty Sm1t]

Well, mostly, I think the visuals are a hard sell. The above blockbusters you mention all have pretty impressive graphics, which tends to move copies and smooth over any criticisms (shallow) people have. That said, I agree in that marketing on Sega's part wouldn't hurt. That said, there's no way they'll invest anything like the ad budget for MW2, AC2, or ODST.

I dont expect the budget for Halo or MW2...thats just crazy talk. But really, a commercial or two on ESPN and other networks NOT G4 would go a long way. They need something to take some of the spotlight from MW2 and AC2 if they want any sales this christmas.

[Bos_hybrid]

or a slow build up of fanbase like Planescape Torment.

 

You would hope it sells better then that. Games nowdays need about, 1 million in copies shipped to break even.

[Enoch]

Am I the only one who doesn't care at all about the marketing stuff?

 

I want the game to be good so that I can enjoy it. I suppose that I'd also like it to be a success so that Obsids can keep making games that are similarly attuned to my tastes, but I'd much rather get a good game that failed commercially than I would a boring game that was a commercial hit.

[Cl_Flushentityhero]

I can't speak for others, but I feel pretty confident that AP will be a good game regardless of what Sega does. I don't feel particularly confident that it will be a huge commercial success regardless of what Sega does.

[Slowtrain]

A year ago, I though this game would sell great. Now I am less hopeful.

 

My fear is that it will be like System Shock, a great game that eventually becomes a classic that every recollects fondly, but very few actually played when it was released.

 

 

SOmetimes the most interesting games seem to slip through the cracks. Probabably because they are somewhat harder to categorize and somewhat different to play.

 

AP just doesn't seem to be getting the play of some of the competeting titles. WHich is a shame because right now it looks like the best game of the year.

 

Of course, can't say for sure until the year is actually over and all games have been released.

 

 

edit: Although with good reviews and word of mouth, I'm sure the game can sell a lot of copies over time. I just don't know if it can blow out 2 million in the first couple weeks. It would be interesting to know exactly what level of expectation Sega has for the game. How many copies does AP need to sell how fast to be qualified as a "success"?

Edited September 1, 2009 by Slowtrain

[Cloaker]

Halo 3: ODST. Modern Warfare 2. Assassin's Creed 2. Borderlands. These are only a FEW of the games on my radar and yet the only game I have preordered is Alpha Protocol. With the exception of Halo, I firmly believe each and every one of those games is a DAY ONE purchase for me. I'm not even including things like Brutal Legend and Beatles Rock Band. So against a lineup of established and well-hyped games, how will Alpha Protocol fare?

 

I think some MASSIVE marketing needs to start right now for this game to compete. We dont want AP to flop, only to be found in March as a GREAT GAME. We want AP to be top 3 or 4 and have people drooling over it.

 

That's some very tough competition indeed, and then there's DA:O which has already sold out alot of Xbox and PC CE editions. The main reason why AP won't sell as mush as these other titles is because of the graphics and gameplay. However, I think it'll get some glowing reviews due to the writing, characters, etc. It might even pull in a few "RPG of the year" awards, depending. I don't think there's too much to worry about though, even if it sells the least out of all these titles, I think it'll still do well enough. But top 3 or 4 and people drooling over it? Not likely.

[Purkake]

They couldn't have chosen a worse time to bring this out (well, maybe Q1 2010). Alpha Protocol could do so much better if they had released it in the desert of games that was July-August. Releasing it alongside Halo, Assassin's Creed and MW2 is pretty much sending it out to die.

[entrerix]

i agree, it should have come out a month ago when NOTHING was coming out. holiday season is for the folks with the MEGA advertising budgets.

 

then again, a game with REALLY good reviews generally sells enough within a year or so.

 

don't bring up psychonauts and ****, because that game is not over 90% on metacritic, and it never had the HYPE of really good reviews, just "good" ones.

 

how many games in the past 5 years scored over 90% on metacritic and failed miserably? none.

 

(feel free to prove me wrong if you can, I will gladly change my stance in the face of evidence!)

[Purkake]

Vary few publishers seem to take advantage of the exclusive media coverage the games get when they come out in a practically gameless month. No one would even mention Red Faction: Guerrilla in the fall, but everyone talked about it for a whole month because it was the only major-ish release in June.

 

That's how you get people interested and rack up lots of sales, especially for a somewhat niche non-franchise game.

Edited September 1, 2009 by Purkake

[Slowtrain]

Well, I don't think either Sega or Obs WANTED AP to slip as it has. So while unfortunate for AP perhaps, there really isn't much point in being to hard about it. There originally was not the intention to release AP in late October 2009. Just the way its all turned out.

 

Considering what happened to Alien crpg, it may be lucky that we are seeing the game at all. If it had been further back in development, maybe we wouldn't.

[Purkake]

Whatever the reason, it's just sad to see AP sent out to die.

[Slowtrain]

Whatever the reason, it's just sad to see AP sent out to die.

 

Let's not go overboard.

 

That's a tad harsh and pessimistic, no?

[Purkake]

I try to keep up with the software sales numbers and it's usually pretty depressing.

 

I'm not saying that AP will bomb, it's just the worst time to be an unknown game in a down economy(clich

Edited September 1, 2009 by Purkake

[Slowtrain]

It would be helpful to know ahead of time what numbers Sega is putting on AP as being successful numbers.

 

It could be that, especially given AP's troubled development, Sega has low expectations and just wants the thing done and released and whatever money it generates will be a bonus.

 

SO if it sold 500,000 copies in the first month, maybe Sega would view it as a huge surprise hit.

 

 

Some of the value of these numbers is all relative to expectation.

[Purkake]

Is SEGA publicly traded? If so they should have quarterly reports where they have the profits and also the expectations for future sales.

 

That's how Bionic Commando's expected sales of 1.5 million came out. The game sold like 50k copies

[RPGmasterBoo]

I think it will sell well, but not obscenely well. Its targeted to a specific crowd, but this crowd should be enough to make a sizeable profit for Obsidian.

[Purkake]

Looks like SEGA releases the sales numbers, but not the expected sales.

[alanschu]

Vary few publishers seem to take advantage of the exclusive media coverage the games get when they come out in a practically gameless month. No one would even mention Red Faction: Guerrilla in the fall, but everyone talked about it for a whole month because it was the only major-ish release in June.

 

That's how you get people interested and rack up lots of sales, especially for a somewhat niche non-franchise game.

 

 

Did it actually work though? As in, are Red Faction's sales higher? I don't really remember it being a hot topic of discussion.

[Purkake]

It's sold over a million units, pleasing THQ, the publisher and beating (at least some) analysts' expectations of ~500k-650k.

 

Even if that wasn't the case, RF:G had pretty much the best possible conditions to sell as much as it was going to. If it hadn't sold, you'd have to look at faults with the game itself or the marketing.

Edited September 1, 2009 by Purkake

[WILL THE ALMIGHTY]

Obs should delay it until June/July 2010.

[Purkake]

Obs should delay it until June/July 2010.

 

Totally agree. June/July '10 will probably be a bit more crowded than last year, though, with everyone bailing out of the holiday season to avoid MW2 and Halo: ODST.

[WILL THE ALMIGHTY]

... oh crap, I wasn't serious. Sorry, Obs, I don't really care if your game sells in the millions, I just want to play it/enjoy it.