Politics 2017 part V

[Wrath of Dagon]

From your link

The Pew Report looks at the years between 2009 and 2014. It combines Mexican survey data on the entry of Mexicans and their families – including American children – with U.S. census data on Mexican entries to the United States. The report is designed to overcome the limitations of national statistics that typically ignore departures.

As far as data reliability, US data is simply the US census. Even Americans don't like to answer the intrusive census questions, but have to under penalty of law. Is it credible that an illegal alien who's already breaking the law really going to admit to the US government that not only is he illegal, but there are another 15 illegals living in his two room apartment? Every time there's a census major cities raise hell because they claim illegals are undercounted which costs them representation and per capita funding.

[Wrath of Dagon]

 

Russia was pulling for Trump while the American media was pulling for Clinton. Seems fair to me.

So you support hostile Russian activity in undermining American democracy over the free excercise thereof of the press?

 

Glad to know where you stand as an American.

 

Releasing Podesta's weird emails is not undermining democracy. It's only informing the American people, which our own press refuses to do.

[Namutree]

What are the facts?

 

There were two hacking entities known by US Intelligence to have explicit ties to the Kremlin engaged in cyber-attacks targeting the DNC and RNC.

Fake News: Those making the claim have a vested political interest, are known to lie to the public for political purposes in the past, have presented the public with ZERO hard evidence, and are also known for being incompetent; getting massive amounts of information wrong. No intelligence agency has actually checked to see if Russians of any variety (much less Kremlin connected) engaged in cyber attacks since the DNC refused to allow the FBI to do so. What investigation has been done on the matter was done by a private company known as Crowdstirke. A company known to be incompetent and having a vested interest in the well being of Ukraine. Totally unreliable source of information, and even they didn't establish that these "Russians" (zero hard evidence that Russians of any kind did anything; VPNs are NOT proof) have ties to the Kremlin. That is 100% speculation. Do not take speculation as facts.

 

TL;DR: Moronic liars with an anti-Russian bias make a claim based on guesswork and a game of telephone with moronic liars with an anti-Russian bias.

 

 

Until actual HARD EVIDENCE has been released to the public; any claim the intelligence community makes regarding Russia should be considered a lie by default.

[Gromnir]

From your link

The Pew Report looks at the years between 2009 and 2014. It combines Mexican survey data on the entry of Mexicans and their families – including American children – with U.S. census data on Mexican entries to the United States. The report is designed to overcome the limitations of national statistics that typically ignore departures.

As far as data reliability, US data is simply the US census. Even Americans don't like to answer the intrusive census questions, but have to under penalty of law. Is it credible that an illegal alien who's already breaking the law really going to admit to the US government that not only is he illegal, but there are another 15 illegals living in his two room apartment? Every time there's a census major cities raise hell because they claim illegals are undercounted which costs them representation and per capita funding.

 

so, as we stated already, you never bothered to look at the pew report which were linked.  you got a real issue with not actual reading stuff.  is a serious flaw.

 

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ph_2015-11-19_mexican-immigration-01/

 

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ph_2015-11-19_mexican-immigration-02/

 

"To calculate estimates of how many Mexicans left Mexico for the U.S., this report also uses U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (2005-2013) and the Current Population Survey (2000-2014), both adjusted for undercount, which ask immigrants living the U.S. their country of birth and the year of their arrival in the U.S."

 

etc.

 

as stated numerous times in the study, the focus were 'pon reasons why mexican immigrants were leaving the US.  the interviews o' immigrants returning to mexico were from 2009-2014, but again, the study contemplated and addressed the flow o' mexican immigration going back significantly further than 2009.

 

you really gotta learn to use reading skills.  check author qualifications. etc.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Wrath of Dagon]

I read the article, I saw no reason to read some worthless study based on fictional data "corrected for undercount". Besides, the claim for net migrant outflow was based on the 2009-2014 period, even if they studied other periods as well. But the outflow period was my point.

[Gromnir]

I read the article, I saw no reason to read some worthless study based on fictional data "corrected for undercount". Besides, the claim for net migrant outflow was based on the 2009-2014 period, even if they studied other periods as well. But the outflow period was my point.

you are becoming comical.  heck, you can't even read color coded graphs we linked as the net outflow started in 2005.

 

you said:

 

"It's also notable that they chose the period of the worst US economy for their study, when many people lost their jobs and had to move back to Mexico where cost of living is much less."

 

to which Gromnir responded how The Pew Study provided data going back further than the recent economic downturn.

 

you denied. you never bothered to actual look at or read the pew study.  you even admitted you saw no reason to bother looking at the pew study, the study Gromnir kept referencing.

 

*shrug*

 

the pew study included the worthless and "fictional" immigration numbers provided by the US Census and homeland securitygoing back, in some instances, decades.  likewise, the study includes immigration data from the mexican government as far back as 1990, which no doubt is equal fictional.  the only fuzzy numbers we can see is the extrapolation o' the reasons why mexicans were returning to mexico from 2005 to present.  poll 1000 families is meaningful, but without seeing the questions presented and getting more details 'bout how the 1000 families were chosen, Gromnir is not certain how much faith to put into pew's conclusions 'bout the Reasons mexican immigrants has returned.  however, the baseline immigration numbers is not fuzzy.  US census and homeland security. Mexican government.  

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Wrath of Dagon]

The Pew graph title itself makes my point : "Net Migration to the U.S. From Mexico Below Zero After the Great Recession"  The bar graph shows net migration was -20,000 between 2005 and 2010, but does not specify which year it started. Almost certainly it only turned negative in 2008. If anyone is illiterate around here, it's you.

 

Edit: Btw, even accepting the Pew study, net migration from Mexico is not negative. This is because they're counting American born children of migrants as outflow. So they come here, multiply, then some of them leave with their children, but it's not all the same people that came in. And the children are American citizens, so they can return at any time.

Edited May 12, 2017 by Wrath of Dagon

[Gromnir]

The Pew graph title itself makes my point : "Net Migration to the U.S. From Mexico Below Zero After the Great Recession"  The bar graph shows net migration was -20,000 between 2005 and 2010, but does not specify which year it started. Almost certainly it only turned negative in 2008. If anyone is illiterate around here, it's you.

 

Edit: Btw, even accepting the Pew study, net migration from Mexico is not negative. This is because they're counting American born children of migrants as outflow. So they come here, multiply, then some of them leave with their children, but it's not all the same people that came in. And the children are American citizens, so they can return at any time.

you still have not read the study, eh?  alternative facts your way to daylight, is that the goal?  contrary to your statements, the data collected and presented goes back further than the recent economic downturn.  example: "The second chapter (of the pew report) uses U.S. Census Bureau data to examine characteristics of Mexican immigrants residing in the U.S. in 1990 and 2013." 

 

your initial complaint were ridiculous.  yeah, pew used the 2009-20014 timeframe for their study o' reasons why mexicans were moving back to mexico 'cause that is the period o' time when more mexicans were returning to mexico. duh.  fact o' a US economic downturn does not change the fact o' the underlying numbers.  do you got evidence o' a return to net positive mexico-to-usa immigration? the recent improvement in the economy has not benefited lower middle-class and lower class americans, so seems unlikely the situation for mexican immigrants has improved much, but knock yourself out looking for alternative numbers.

 

you made a mistake.  again.  heck, you failed to even read what were being discussed, which should be baffling but ain't.  even so, am suspecting you is gonna try and turn this into an endurance thing.

 

*shrug*

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Wrath of Dagon]

 

 

you still have not read the study, eh?  alternative facts your way to daylight, is that the goal?  contrary to your statements, the data collected and presented goes back further than the recent economic downturn.  example: "The second chapter (of the pew report) uses U.S. Census Bureau data to examine characteristics of Mexican immigrants residing in the U.S. in 1990 and 2013."

I said the study showing net outflow was for 2009-2014, same as the article you linked said, not that Pew never studied immigration before 2009. Trying to get last word through endurance is your thing, not mine.

[Malcador]

Hmm, gonna have to find the Manning and Snowden threads

[Valsuelm]

Donald Trump fired the man who refused to pledge his loyalty while leading the agency investigating his campaign for impropriety and collusion with a foreign adversary that engaged in attacks on this country's election process.

 

The standard of ethics as demonstrated by this Administration is beyond abnormal, even by the usual Washington dysfunction. This has the stench of Banana Republic-like authoritarianism. Except on the scale of World Superpower.

 

To say that this is a non-story is ridiculous.

 

Well.... I and a lot of other people saw the firing coming last year (in other words, a million miles away). If Comey's firing is even a remote surprise to you, I know what to tell you as much as I'd know what to say to someone who was awed by the sun setting in the west and not somewhere else.

 

II guess I should have wagered you again? lol

[Zoraptor]

 

 

Russia was pulling for Trump while the American media was pulling for Clinton. Seems fair to me.

So you support hostile Russian activity in undermining American democracy over the free excercise thereof of the press?

 

Glad to know where you stand as an American.

 

free press, i chuckle a lot

 

 

 

I dunno, I doubt that Clinton actually paid very much for all the positive coverage/ lack of negative coverage. So from that point of view they are free, ish.

 

But yeah, a press that can be relied on to parrot whatever fits their predisposed notions- or those of their owners- acritically isn't what is usually meant when the term 'free press' is bandied about, at least not when it's bandied about by people other than politicians and media conglomerate owners. For the latter 'freedom' is rather important, since they can just threaten to switch support if they don't get what they want. Which has been Uncle Ruperts modus operandi in the UK for literally decades.

 

 

What are the facts?

 

There were two hacking entities known by US Intelligence to have explicit ties to the Kremlin engaged in cyber-attacks targeting the DNC and RNC.

 

TL;DR: Moronic liars with an anti-Russian bias make a claim based on guesswork and a game of telephone with moronic liars with an anti-Russian bias.

 

 

Until actual HARD EVIDENCE has been released to the public; any claim the intelligence community makes regarding Russia should be considered a lie by default.

 

 

Pretty much this. It's always sad to see people take mere assertions as proof. Which reminds me that I asked Gromnir to furnish actual proof that Assad gassed people in Khan Sheiktoun, but he 'mysteriously' disappeared and never addressed that issue. Something something SAD! something something low energy Grommy.

 

My personal favourite is the naming of the hacking groups. They've got bear in their name! Therefore they must be Russian!  Russia is obviously to blame just look at their name, it's got a bear in it and they're Russian! To which the rebuttal is: The IC made the names up themselves! They don't call themselves Fancy Bear or any other Bear, you do! Holy recursive reasoning Manbat!

 

The tools used were old and came from Ukraine which also uses Cyrilic and speaks Russian! It's a asterisking phishing scam and about as sophisticated as a slab of concrete, not diagnostic of anyone! Podesta's password was literally p@ssw0rd! Literally literally, not sjw literally! The well known hacker known as Fancy Kiwi (ie me, with a fricking 11 year old computer whose case can't even be closed up without crashing) could have guessed it within ten tries and using no tools at all! And that's the security from the head of Clinton's campaign, folks!

 

(I still find the whole Russian interference angle hilariously hypocritical, the US got Yeltsin elected in 1996 via overt interference which was actively celebrated and which led to the 2nd biggest drop in living standards ever in a large country- after Yeltsin's 92-6 achievement in that field- and literal bankruptcy in 1998. Now that's asterisking up another country with electoral interference. And there's a... fairly long list of other elections and countries that have had US interference as well. I'd list them, but the forum does have a character limit per post)

[Valsuelm]

Trump is the healthiest man on Earth. Just look at him.

 

It's the hair.

 

Rapunzel had it, Samson had it, Trump has it.....

[Valsuelm]

If anything, the KGB is quite happy on what they achieved years back. 

 

Well yea... I mean, they convinced one hell of a lot of people that they lost, when they did anything but.

 

Like em or not, it's reason to celebrate.

[Valsuelm]

Wonder if they will ever get Trump off Twitter.

 

It's a decent possibility.

 

The overlords of the Twitterverse do despise him and they can legally pull the plug on him any day they want to. A manufactured high profile scandal where Trump says X and the good overlords of Twitter are finally compelled by their goodness to shush Trump's advertised evil is plausible. The Russian thing will eventually run out of steam, and they'll need to make something else up to keep the fire stoked.

[Malcador]

Yeah, the hidden masters are just waiting. Was more thinking his aides would get him to just shut it, herculean task that is short of causing him to have a stroke or something.

[Valsuelm]

 

Russia was pulling for Trump while the American media was pulling for Clinton. Seems fair to me.

So you support hostile Russian activity in undermining American democracy over the free excercise thereof of the press?

 

Glad to know where you stand as an American.

 

 

'American democracy' was undermined long before you were born.

 

And I'll take the unsubstantiated yet mildly plausible alleged interference by the current Russian government over those who have certainly been undermining elections in the U.S. for the better part or more than 100 years. ie: The Brits, random blue bloods of Europe/Mideast, and Israel.

 

[ShadySands]

Trump is the healthiest man on Earth. Just look at him.

I pictured Trump on the cover of a men's health magazine and laughed for about 5 minutes straight

 

Thanks for that ...and the fact that I'm easily amused

[Malcador]

 

Trump is the healthiest man on Earth. Just look at him.

I pictured Trump on the cover of a men's health magazine and laughed for about 5 minutes straight

 

Thanks for that ...and the fact that I'm easily amused

 

So you pictured him in bathing trunks and oiled up as he's flexing ?

[ShadySands]

No, but thanks to you I have now

Is more what I was picturing

[Volourn]

Pre Election: No way no how can an Amerikan election be rigged or hacked. It is unpatriotic and evil to even vaguely suggest it.

 

Post Election: ELECTIONS WERE HACKED AND RIGGED AND ONLY FOOLS THINK OTHERWISE.

 

 

Bottom line, imo, if the Amerikan election was hacked and rigged it is the Obama Administration's fualt 100%. EPIC FAIL.

[Zoraptor]

 

 

Trump is the healthiest man on Earth. Just look at him.

I pictured Trump on the cover of a men's health magazine and laughed for about 5 minutes straight

 

Thanks for that ...and the fact that I'm easily amused

 

So you pictured him in bathing trunks and oiled up as he's flexing ?

 

 

He is a member of the WWE Hall of Fame, so trunks, oil and flexing is obligatory. Cue Vince_McMahon_Mounting_Excitement.gif

 

His 'wrestling' career actually suggests that despite his exercise aversion his knees are in bad shape anyway and may have been for some time.

[Gromnir]

dear lord.  got two of you.

 

you want more evidence than were already presented in the previous thread? 

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/05/syrian-forces-nerve-gas-attacks-hrw-170501175703947.html

 

pattern is also evidence.  such evidence, including flight trackings already mentioned previous, convinced a goodly number o' world leaders when the USA delivered its object lesson to the syrians... and russians.  'course if russia hadn't veto'd, we would have independent investigations to satisfy zor and the other mummers doing their best head-in-sand ostrich schtick.  13 on security voted for or abstained.  

 

and nothing mysterious 'bout Gromnir disappearance from the boards in mid april, is there?  particularly seeing as how 2 days 'fore easter, in the last post directed to zor, we observed how we would be departing to spend easter with family.  kinda low energy and/or willful obtuse o' zor not to notice.  utter (un)shocking we would be away from the board for two weeks in in mid/late april during an announced trip to the midwest, no? no.  

 

what is with the fatigue posters?  say something new and we will revisit.

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps am baffled by the folks who somehow see similarities or equivalency o' a free press endorsing and advocating candidates during an election and a foreign government, surreptitiously working to subvert the democratic process in the United States.  

Edited May 13, 2017 by Gromnir

[HoonDing]

[Agiel]

 

 

pattern is also evidence.  such evidence, including flight trackings already mentioned previous, convinced a goodly number o' world leaders when the USA delivered its object lesson to the syrians... and russians.  'course if russia hadn't veto'd, we would have independent investigations to satisfy zor and the other mummers doing their best head-in-sand ostrich schtick.  13 on security voted for or abstained.  

 

 

 

Also of note that the China, who has until now consistently vetoed resolutions taking a harsher stance against the Assad regime (which is generally couched in a "all change is bad change" outlook), have pointedly decided to abstain from the vote condemning the Syrian government, which seems to suggest that either their own intelligence assessments based on verifiable data and/or the character of Assad's indiscriminate terror bombing campaigns seems to largely corroborate the consensus of the rest of the international community. Translation: "We accept the conclusions of the rest of the international community, but we do not want to jeopardise energy and technology transfer deals with Russia... yet."

 

Point we've been trying to make is that even if one were to make the most militantly "Switzerland" approach to international affairs then it would probably be unwise to assume the most positive pro-Assad narrative as reflexively as the most anti-occidental one.

Edited May 13, 2017 by Agiel