Augury never sees new results.

[delpheki]

I chalked it up to random chance before but I have encountered this at least 6x now.

 

After casting augury and moving something to the top of the deck, in this case the henchman.  I cast augury again hoping to see what else is underneath it but I always hit the same 2 cards that were on top before.  I don't think the deck is being shuffled after augury moves a target.

[da_mayor]

It's pretty astounding how many times I catch the Villain on top of whatever location he travels to after he escapes.

[Kgk4569]

Yeah, I think the algorithm for shuffling is a but wonky. I encountered the same bane 3 turns in a row because I couldn't defeat him due to not having fire or acid traits. It was a 12 card pile!

 

I have also seen the Augury thing too.

 

ADDITIONALLY I have noticed that cures and Healing staffs pull heavily from the bottom of the discard rather than a random selection. This, combined with not being able to auto-fail boons has really been hurting my Sajan and Lini team, which can't afford the junk in their decks.

[Longshot11]

I have also experienced both issues:

 

- Augury the same 3 cards 4-5 times in a row

- Evade the same card in a full deck 3 times in a row

 

Of course, it can be argued that this is what 'true random' looks like...

[Borissimo]

Human minds are bad at estimating probability, so I always argue against claims that "the shuffler is broken" in online games. That said ... I think there might be a real issue here.

 

Finding the villain on top of the location after he escapes is no big deal. This is just confirmation bias. When it happens, it stands out in your mind; when it doesn't happen, you take it for granted. There's a 1/11 chance the villain ends up on top in his new home, so it's going to happen all the time.

 

Evading the same card 3 times in a row is a bit more suspicious. After you evade it once, the odds that it'll come back to the top twice in a row are 1/100. This is big enough that it should happen to every player eventually -- about as unlikely as rolling 2 on 2d10, which'll happen. Still, if mulitple people are experiencing it regularly, that is suspicious.

 

The Augury thing is what's really weird. Do you just "feel" like it happens "all the time," or does it literally happen every time? If you Augury a full deck and leave a Henchman on top, then the odds of seeing the same 2 cards behind the henchman after you Augury again are 2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36. This is the same as rolling snake eyes on 2d6. Not that weird if it happens more than once, but certainly a bug if it's happening every time.

[Feywood]

I can say that, in my case at least, literally 9 times out of 10 an evaded bane will be back on the top of the location deck the next time I draw a card, even when that deck is nearly full. I don't believe for a second that cards are being shuffled properly.

 

On occasion I've had to evade a card five times for it not to be the top card on the deck.

 

Of course, back when the game first came out I also rolled a 1 fifteen times in a row for Kyra's healing check, sooo...

[Kgk4569]

I can also say that it is more than just "feeling". I THOUGHT it was just me being biased until I read Feywood's post and realized that 2 people experiencing the same issue, with this frequency is statistically less likely.

 

The only reason I finally killed that troll was I drew Poog. Poog rescues me often.

 

 

Also this:

"It's pretty astounding how many times I catch the Villain on top of whatever location he travels to after he escapes."

 

I had a suspicion that I was closing locations faster than normal. But this is just a suspicion. Also this could be related to the Malagus Kreeg thread I started in Tech Support, He could have been jumping to the top and I was just Lucky enough to encounter him.

[delpheki]

I admit my findings could be skewed my confirmation bias which is why I've waited so long to make an assumption.  I have not kept a detailed account but I will in the future.  The fact is it's not very often I have 2 Augury's in hand and when I do it's not common for me to use both of them back to back and it should be a lot easier for a dev to either look at the logic or manipulate the scenario to test it.

[Kgk4569]

You can test after 1 Augury, just by recording the next 3 cards.

[trashcondor]

*cough* I'd like to raise the thing about that one villain where the battle is void on a roll of 1-or-2. There are several of us (there's dozens of us! dozens!) that experience 6+ streaks on that villain. I don't recall encountering him and having less than 4 checks before the encounter was resolved.

[Kgk4569]

*cough* I'd like to raise the thing about that one villain where the battle is void on a roll of 1-or-2. There are several of us (there's dozens of us! dozens!) that experience 6+ streaks on that villain. I don't recall encountering him and having less than 4 checks before the encounter was resolved.

 

He wasn't that bad for me. I beat him a lot, until it was the FINAL battle, then he would seem to get harder, taking 2-3 tries.

[da_mayor]

*cough* I'd like to raise the thing about that one villain where the battle is void on a roll of 1-or-2. There are several of us (there's dozens of us! dozens!) that experience 6+ streaks on that villain. I don't recall encountering him and having less than 4 checks before the encounter was resolved.

 

I'm not disagreeing that there's a problem there, but it's going to be difficult to track, since once you get one result OTHER than 1-2, you don't roll again (unless he escapes).  So, while we can see a string of rolls that are 1-2, we CAN'T see if people are getting a string of 3-6 results, 'cause we stop after one...

[Irgy]

6 times in a row is 1/729, it's not that astounding. He's been quite close to expectation for me, I've often got him first go.

 

Of the things mentioned here the Augury one is the most plausible, particularly if it is happening literally every time. Has anyone followed those steps and not seen it happen?

 

Personally I've never tried. I almost always Augury for the henchman type (so usually monster), and if it's the villain/henchman I'm done while other banes go on the bottom. Either way I don't want to Augury again (since if I miss again it would reshuffle the currently bottom banes), if I have another one I'll move to a different location to use it. Even when I do Augury for a boon I would always want to encounter the boon first before trying again.