Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[Kroney]

So is anybody still doubting that Russia's arming and sending troops? Tanks now too, apparently.

 

Haha no, I know I'm being silly. Of course you're not.

[obyknven]

At least CNN reach Slovjansk.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/11/world/europe/ukraine-inside-slovyansk/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

 

I wondering how fast these journalists will be fired (many authors/editors of previous objective reports about Crimea has been fired during month after publications).

[Gorgon]

In the next episode they meet Strelok who will guide them to the center of the zone.

[Mor]

well Chernobyl is much further west and north (near the border with Belarus) and instead of nuclear it is presumably white phosphorus (the stuff that Russia has been raining down in Chechnya).

 

 

In the meantime, here is a nice article on US policy and Russian studies, has some interesting historical facts that I wasn't aware of. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/why-washington-must-understand-kremlin

Edited June 12, 2014 by Mor

[Zoraptor]

Meh, everyone uses white phosphorus- in the past decade or so Russia, the US ("shake 'n' bake"), Israel at the least- it's just that everyone says it's legitimate use and they were really trying just to make smoke rather than set people/ built up areas on fire, that happened 'accidentally'. Several hundred times. Indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas is a war crime anyway, nobody except the most naive will expect any action against Ukraine for it- such things are only actionable when we don't like the people doing it, not because of any actual moral issue.

 

EU long standing policy for energy security, has been about diversification ( and better integration within ) so as long as the gas comes from Russia monopoly, it means little how it get there.

 

 

What a crock. Russia has never threatened to cut Europe off from gas, that is entirely against its own interests and only happened last time Ukraine refused to pay and was siphoning gas, something no one in Europe itself argued was not happening, they just argued that Russia should put up with it. Diversification means having multiple alternative supply means- including multiple means from the same source- stopping this will certainly not improve Europe's energy security. There is no sensible way to argue that it will as it's an obvious logical fallacy that majority supply along a single (well, the alternative(s) cannot supply full capacity) route is more secure than supply along multiple routes with redundant capacity. Arguing that is literally non sensical.

 

This is entirely about keeping Ukraine important so that Russia can't leverage gas against it without also leveraging against Europe, something it does not want to do.

 

So is anybody still doubting that Russia's arming and sending troops? Tanks now too, apparently.

 

What, based on the Ukrainian interior ministry? They couldn't lie straight in bed. They've repeatedly and provenly lied- Russians and Transnitstrians killed in Odessa (actually none) etc etc. We know how the separatists got most of their gear and their bmps, indeed we saw them get their bmps on live TV, and there's plenty of TV footage of them raiding army bases for gear as well. Might as well say that all the footage of ISIS chappies in Iraq driving around in Humvees means that the US has been supplying Al Qaeda with weaponry, there's as much proof.

[Kroney]

No, sure, people often pick up T-72s from the side of the road. I've done it myself. Invaded Sussex, it was well lol.

[Zoraptor]

Well, that is exactly how the separatists got their bmps, from the side of the road. In that case it was all filmed by the BBC and Al Jazeera. Seems rather odd and completely pointless that the Russians would give enough military hardware for it be remarked upon but nowhere near enough to actually make a difference, whereas Ukrainian armed forces had heaps of stuff boxed up in warehouses- something like a quarter of their nominal air force was boxed in Crimean warehouses for example- because they lack the funds to actually run it. Given that the Ukrainian Interior Ministry is utterly unreliable when it comes to facts there's no reason whatsoever to believe them over a more logical explanation which has happened before.

 

If you start seeing lots of tanks and the more advanced varieties then its likely they're getting tanks from the Russians. 3 T72s though, which Ukraine itself has hundreds of? Nah.

[obyknven]

If you start seeing lots of tanks and the more advanced varieties then its likely they're getting tanks from the Russians. 3 T72s though, which Ukraine itself has hundreds of? Nah.

 Actually this is typical for Ukraine T64BV instead of T72s. Yet another Ukrainian propagandistic bull**** about Russian military forces at east of Ukraine.

.

[Kroney]

 

If you start seeing lots of tanks and the more advanced varieties then its likely they're getting tanks from the Russians. 3 T72s though, which Ukraine itself has hundreds of? Nah.

 Actually this is typical for Ukraine T64BV instead of T72s. Yet another Ukrainian propagandistic bull**** about Russian military forces at east of Ukraine.

.

 

 

Yep, looks like that's been confirmed, in as far as these things can be. Rebels are claiming they were lifted from a warehouse and they've been identified all over the place as T64s.

 

Red faces all over for Ukraine. Bit humiliating to be kicked about with your own weapons.

 

I'm still pretty convinced that if Russia's not directly supplying men and weapons, then they're providing significant financial support. The Ukrainian premier's not going to help his case by shouting baseless accusations at Putin, though.

[Zoraptor]

I would have thought they would have at least got the type of tank right, only footage I saw of them was fuzzy cam of a single tank trundling down a suburban road. Kind of funny, Al Jazeera who have usually been pretty accurate were still saying they were Russian T72s a couple of hours ago.

 

Situation with funding and the like I suspect would actually be rather like that of ISIS in Iraq- in that case most of the money and supplies comes from 'private sources' in the UAE/ Saudi/ Qatar (or is looted) and none comes from any sort of 'official' source. Far better plausible deniability that way, main drawback is that you have less control and they may decide to go off the reservation.

[Sarex]

I'm still pretty convinced that if Russia's not directly supplying men and weapons, then they're providing significant financial support. The Ukrainian premier's not going to help his case by shouting baseless accusations at Putin, though.

 

I am pretty convinced that the US finaced and provided the training for the protests in Kiev that started this mess, there are even circumstanstial evidence to support that claim. So why should anyone be supprised, or even blame the Russians for supporting the other side.

[Mor]

 

EU long standing policy for energy security, has been about diversification ( and better integration within ) so as long as the gas comes from Russia monopoly, it means little how it get there.

 

What a crock. Russia has never threatened..

 

Let me stop here, the only crock is the straw-men argument you started to make. EU energy security through diversification intended to end its dependence on specific supplier, chief among them is Russia. If not for EU dependence on Russia as supplier, limiting its options in this and previous Russian power moves in the region, Putin wouldn't be so bold to act.

 

And yes energy independence, would be served well by a pipeline into Caspian region, allowing to by pass Russian monopoly, being able to buy gas directly\cheaper from Kazakhstan as well as providing alternatives (right now they are locked in a "union" headed by Russia) and improving relationships with other Central Asian countries, which is basically what China has been doing causing a lot of trouble for Russia.

[Mor]

I'm still pretty convinced that if Russia's not directly supplying men and weapons, then they're providing significant financial support. The Ukrainian premier's not going to help his case by shouting baseless accusations at Putin, though.

You mean right now in East Ukraine, on top of its previous direct military action in Crimea instigating its secession and indirect actions such as the ongoing propaganda campaign destabilizing Ukraine or its intelligence assets that were arrested working in Ukraine.

 

I agree that it would be foolish not to assume that Russia isn't involved right now, after its action in Crimea, past action in the region, and all it has invested in Ukraine. Although i'd take what Ukrainian PM says with a pinch of salt, right now the name of the game is information war, where the target audience isn't us, and they are badly trying to take the initiative from Russia.

[Walsingham]

I would remind the board that Russia was learning to manipulate its domestic media as far back as 2000 in Chechnya.

[Sarex]

I would remind the board that Russia was learning to manipulate its domestic media as far back as 2000 in Chechnya.

 

Yup, it was desperately trying to catch up to the US, who had started in WW2.

[Zoraptor]

Let me stop here, the only crock is the straw-men argument you started to make. EU energy security through diversification intended to end its dependence on specific supplier, chief among them is Russia. If not for EU dependence on Russia as supplier, limiting its options in this and previous Russian power moves in the region, Putin wouldn't be so bold to act.

 

And yes energy independence, would be served well by a pipeline into Caspian region, allowing to by pass Russian monopoly, being able to buy gas directly\cheaper from Kazakhstan as well as providing alternatives (right now they are locked in a "union" headed by Russia) and improving relationships with other Central Asian countries, which is basically what China has been doing causing a lot of trouble for Russia.

 

 

Nope, you have absolutely no logical basis to claim that stopping the south stream improves energy security, none at all. At present if there was a pure accident on the trans Ukraine pipeline that cut supply then, well, supply would be cut, with no malicious or other intent. With south stream it wouldn't. Having an alternative source for Russian gas improves energy security, full stop, there is literally no reason not to have it and it cannot be argued that not having it improves energy security. You can have other sources as well, that is sensible, but that doesn't change the basic facts for all the anti-russian butthurt the EU may be feeling.

 

As for China, there was the little matter of the 200 billion dollar gas agreement Russia and China signed this year, which you might have heard about if you weren't as one eared as you are one eyed. At this point it doesn't matter whether or not Russia and China particularly like each other on a fundamental basis, they have complementary economies and both certainly and fundamentally dislike western hegemony.

[Walsingham]

 

I would remind the board that Russia was learning to manipulate its domestic media as far back as 2000 in Chechnya.

 

Yup, it was desperately trying to catch up to the US, who had started in WW2.

 

 

Because Russian media during ww2 was free and fair news reporting?

[Walsingham]

 

Let me stop here, the only crock is the straw-men argument you started to make. EU energy security through diversification intended to end its dependence on specific supplier, chief among them is Russia. If not for EU dependence on Russia as supplier, limiting its options in this and previous Russian power moves in the region, Putin wouldn't be so bold to act.

 

And yes energy independence, would be served well by a pipeline into Caspian region, allowing to by pass Russian monopoly, being able to buy gas directly\cheaper from Kazakhstan as well as providing alternatives (right now they are locked in a "union" headed by Russia) and improving relationships with other Central Asian countries, which is basically what China has been doing causing a lot of trouble for Russia.

 

 

Nope, you have absolutely no logical basis to claim that stopping the south stream improves energy security, none at all. At present if there was a pure accident on the trans Ukraine pipeline that cut supply then, well, supply would be cut, with no malicious or other intent. With south stream it wouldn't. Having an alternative source for Russian gas improves energy security, full stop, there is literally no reason not to have it and it cannot be argued that not having it improves energy security. You can have other sources as well, that is sensible, but that doesn't change the basic facts for all the anti-russian butthurt the EU may be feeling.

 

As for China, there was the little matter of the 200 billion dollar gas agreement Russia and China signed this year, which you might have heard about if you weren't as one eared as you are one eyed. At this point it doesn't matter whether or not Russia and China particularly like each other on a fundamental basis, they have complementary economies and both certainly and fundamentally dislike western hegemony.

 

 

I agree up to a point. Except that China has a strong multi-level trade economy. It's working with the West, Mideast, Africa, Latin America... I don't see their midterm interests being at all the same.

[Agiel]

Though China and Russia can form tactical alliances as counter-balances to the US in East Asia, they are regional adversaries in regards to Central Asia. I'd go as far as to say Russia's re-armament programs are as much about China as they are about NATO.

 

Also if a deal with Iran is reached and sanctions lifted and if the US opts to release their own oil and gas production for export, energy may well become a buyer's market and Putin's energy strategy undone. These eventualities are not necessarily very likely, but that doesn't change the fact that it's within Obama's capabilities and Russia has the most to lose if Putin pushes his luck.

Edited June 14, 2014 by Agiel

[Walsingham]

While I agree with your analysis, Agiel, I think you're making a fundamental error. The Putin adminstration, like many worldwide, is not nationalist. It's a coterie of plutocrats.

 

It does not matter if Russia collapses. If anything it will cement Putin's power. In fact I'd go further and say that economic success would swell the middle classes and these would only threaten his ultra-conservative viewpoint.

[obyknven]

Yep, military Chinese-Russian military alliance is epic failure of Western politics. All what US diplomacy do half of century become f *** d now, thanks to Obama. By inertia Western media continue whining about Russian-Chinece hostility, but this is just wet fantasies of State Departament.
Other news - Ukrainian APC cross Russian border and has been captured by Russians. Ukrainian military helicopter do this also, Russians shot down him.
Wery hot in Mariupol today. Resistance forces use hit and run tactics against punishers here, as answer to this punishers begin terror against civilians, again.

City fights are continued here. Foreign mercs participate in these fights on side of punishers.

http://youtu.be/CcZmEmoNUKE

 

East Ukrainians shot down Ukrainian military plane IL-76 with 40 soldiers. As reaction to this Ukrainian crowd attack russian ambassy in Kiev. Yep is similar to situation when someone is impotent but blaming alpha-male neighbor for it.

 

As usual West continue repeat Ukrainian officials nonsense - Ukrainians don't bomb Lugansk, Ukrainians don't use White phosphorus, Kievan junta is not Nazi. It's make us lol, because of official Ukrainian propaganda is most crazy in the world. Few year ago one of his minister has been killed, officials say this is suicide, yep guy shot to own head from handgun... twice. Right sector member Sasha Beliy killed after arrest by Ukrainian police officially perform suicide also. He attack police officer, take his handgun and shot into yourself. He perform all this handcuffed behind back! In other words Ukrainian propagand make us lol long ago.

 

http://youtu.be/nAlriBkBuEE

[Gorgon]

The Nazis have no popular support, they only had influence because of the violence of Maidan. That will pass.

 

Last time they polled at single digits am I correct in this ?

 

So why do you keep calling everyone involved in Maidan Nazis, that's just unintelligent. Whatever else you might think of them. 

[Rostere]

Last time they polled at single digits am I correct in this ?

 

Yes.

[kgambit]

 

As for China, there was the little matter of the 200 billion dollar gas agreement Russia and China signed this year, which you might have heard about if you weren't as one eared as you are one eyed. At this point it doesn't matter whether or not Russia and China particularly like each other on a fundamental basis, they have complementary economies and both certainly and fundamentally dislike western hegemony.

 

 

Actually it was a 400 billion dollar deal spanning 30 years.  It included approximately 50 to 70 billion dollars of infrastructure improvements including a new gas line to the Chinese border.  Media estimates put the gas price on the deal at 350$ / 1000 cubic meters which is about 10% lower than the nominal price the Russians charge the EU (~380$).  It's not clear if the Chinese are required to make an advanced payment on the deal.

 

The Chinese got a pretty good deal.

 

Edit:  I think the gas price the media quotes (350$ / 1000 cubic meters)  is probably overstated by about 10% -

 

400 billion dollars less 50 billion infrastructure charges (could be as high as 70 billion) is 350 billion dollars for 38 billion cubic meters per year for 30 years - that works out to ~310$/ 1000 cubic feet

 

That's a GREAT deal - for the Chinese.  Not so much for the Russians. 

Edited June 14, 2014 by kgambit

[Zoraptor]

10% discount on a bulk long term deal would not be considered unusual at all if it were anything other than gas (and Russia) involved, and that is the figure pretty much everyone is using. And it's far less than other discounts. The old Ukrainian figure that Tymoshenko/ Yanukovich negotiated was considerably lower than that or even the lowest estimate you've provided ($234 total cost or around 35% baseline discount), for example.

 

Doing anything with the infrastructure costs is questionable as well. We don't know who is paying them or how much they will be. Plus, if the 'real' cost that Russia is getting gets lowered by their infrastructure costs then, logically, what China 'really' pays has to have their infrastructure costs added. So, a new natural gas distribution network across China, hmm, make it easy and say 50 billion dollars and the 'real' price is... back up to ~$350, again.

 

The Nazis have no popular support, they only had influence because of the violence of Maidan. That will pass.

 

Sadly that is not accurate, the government is actively recruiting neo fascists volunteers for direct use as shock troops- see Al Jazeera going to visit the Azov Battalion. It isn't widely reported in western media, for some unfathomable reason, but it definitively is happening. This is the unit that is being widely and absolutely deliberately used in eastern Ukraine, and could not be better designed to reinforce exactly the 'Kievan junta/ Banderan/ Fascist' stereotype that Kiev supposedly wants to avoid.