Kerry's Israeli/Palestinian peace talks

[Agiel]

Bit of context:

 

 

Israeli forces intercepted and destroyed a rocket fired from Egypt toward the Red Sea town of Eilat overnight Aug. 12, AFP reported Aug. 13, citing Israeli public radio. Jihadist militants had earlier said they fired a Grad rocket at Eilat in response to an alleged Israeli air raid. Egypt's military is trying to bring Sinai militancy back to tolerable levels. - Stratfor.com

 

 

Grad missiles are quite commonly being launched at Israel. They are military hardware, not home made.

 

 

Those things are based upon what the Russians consider Soviet-era surplus and they are not known for accuracy. Far from it, they have the circular error probability the size of counties. Like the Vengeance bombs a launch is considered a success if it hits someplace populated. The BM-21's 122mm rockets' greatest boon is cheapness that allows for volume of fire (which is certainly not the way Hamas utilises them) and not precision.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Agiel

[Walsingham]

*nods*

 

Worth adding, Agiel, for those who don't know.

 

But that rather reinforces the notion that Israel is facing an enemy who just wants to create carnage.

[Agiel]

Well more they know that launching it from a built-up area will sometimes incur a disproportionate response from the Israeli Air Force (though without HUMINT assets on the ground, Israel's options for dealing with this are understandably limited). Photos circulating of a family being pulled from the rubble of an apartment building in this day and age do exponentially more damage to Israel than the physical damage caused by a mortar shell or rocket.

 

For the record, with such a tactic Hamas would be as much to blame (if not more so) for that kind of tragedy as the IAF would.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Agiel

[Walsingham]

I think the "who's to blame" game becomes pointless in this kind of deadlock - since it makes **** all difference who I blame.

[rjshae]

Mideast peace talks = complete waste of time

 

But it looks good in the press.

[Walsingham]

A thought occurs, though: presumably if Israel exists for, like, 300 years more then people really will have got used to it.

 

Maybe that's what the hardliners are prepared to wait for.

[obyknven]

Grad missiles are quite commonly being launched at Israel. They are military hardware, not home made.

 

  Palestinian's don't have Grad missiles and Israel "Iron sky" defence system can't protect against MLRS. Palestinians use homemade missiles.

[Walsingham]

You sure about that oby? You might want to double check.

[obyknven]

You sure about that oby? You might want to double check.

Palestinians can launch single missiles to  somewere, but they don't have  MLRS Grad.

 

Russian military experts especially calculating (just for lul'z, Israel is almost Russian country now and Arabs can't  use such weapon's properly ) how use cheap Grad MLRS to penetrate (and exterminate) 'Iron Dome' defence.

 

 

Кипат барзель – стационарный комплекс с непонятными характеристиками, с фанерными кабинками, к тактическому бою не пригоден в принципе, а так как его эффективность по единичным НУРС Град низкая, соответственно его уязвимость к тому же «Граду» крайне высокая. Не знаю на какой точке траектории противоракеты сбивают снаряд, но если этот ЗРК сам попадает в зону обстрела, тогда непонятно почему он в Израиле ещё целый стоит. По снаряду он стреляет залпом из двух противоракет. Даже по телевизору показывали, пиарят игрушку. Сколько у него каналов? Что то мне подсказывает, что немного. БМ-21 Град делает залп за 20 секунд. С учётом радиогоризонта у комплекса ТПРО (назовём так) времени на первичную обработку целей ещё меньше. В случае расхода противоракет - две на снаряд, комплекс ТПРО пропустит 10 снарядов в любом случае, по причине полного расстрела боезапаса, даже если комплекс имеет 40 (сорок! … Однако… ) каналов, причём с условием, что обеспечивается необходимая скорость обнаружения, селекции и сопровождения целей. Две установки БМ-21 отстреливают 80 снарядов за те же 20 с. Даже если предположить, что комплекс имеет 80 каналов (однако ) и имеет 100% вероятность поражения целей при расходе противоракет 1 на цель (однако финиш), он пропустит уже 20 снарядов.

 

Хвалёная мулька не стрелять по целям, которые летят в ненаселённые зоны, вообще ерунда какая-то. Технически это решаемо, тот же «Зоопарк» вычисляет район падения снарядов. Можно просто не передавать данные по каким то целям на огневые средства. Но нормальный ЗРК работает по принципу - сбиваются все цели, входящие в зону поражения, идентифицированные как «чужой», а не так, что - «опасный - не опасный». Но даже если предположить, что противник настолько тупой и неумелый, что стреляет сам не зная куда, во первых, сколько у евреев тех зон? А если туда люди приехали? Это что, всю информацию по перемещениям всего населения вбивать в ТПРО и обрабатывать в масштабе реального времени? Считалка считать не замучается? Не, ну только если что-то совсем уж в мёртвое море улетело… А если снаряд взорвался, а БЧ в другую сторону полетела? А если снаряд имеет двигатель с двойным включением в процессе полёта? Может быть тоже рассчитаете? Так что по любому придётся сбивать почти всё. Евреи с пиаром своего «Барзеля» вообще корки мочат, недавно в их новостях читал, что мол при обстреле Иерусалима снаряд попал в автобус, но никто не пострадал, потому что все из него вышли за минуту до взрыва. Вроде кому-то из пассажиров на сотку позвонили и предупредили… Даже если так, удивляюсь, как это ХАМАЗовцы ещё не додумались отстреливать БЧ на парашютике по копеечному китайскому таймеру в снаряде.

 

Теперь по финансам. Фирменный снаряд Града стоит порядка 1000 $ штука. Залп противоракет Кипат барзель – 50 000 $ с какой то неопределённой вероятностью сбития и со 100% вероятностью пропуска 10 снарядов Града, от залпа первой машины. Залп второй машины – весь заданный район накроет. Говноснаряд террористов имеет себестоимость 200 $ штука. Постреляем, парни?

 

Американцы в Ираке и Афганистане проще и дешевле ТПРО от папуасов организовывали, стационарными (возимыми) пушками Вулкан. Ничего, мины сбивали. Прикольная такая позиция Вулкана, колючей проволокой обнесена, биотуалет за колючей проволокой стоит (снаружи), синенькая такая кабинка При нормальном противодействии такую позицию вторым же залпом накроет, прибор «Аистёнок» только нужен. Причём первый залп не больше двух снарядов. Вот и всё ТПРО.

 

Стационарный комплекс ТПРО на противоракетах не только запредельно не рационален по балансу цена/эффективность, но и крайне уязвим к системам противодействия, потому как должен работать в режиме постоянного излучения СОЦ. Даже имея резервную СОЦ, за время переключения на вторую СОЦ скорее всего будет пропуск какого то количества целей. При пуске противоракет противник имеет преимущество контрбатарейной стрельбы, и повторного пуска уже не будет. Точка.

[Rostere]

 

My point was that your example of no one being exterminated wasn't valid because it didn't consider both possible outcomes (Allies winning vs Axis winning).

 

This is getting silly. It is irrelevant to my argument who won the conflict, I only gave a counterexample to the idea that "victory can only be achieved if one side is exterminated".

Edited August 13, 2013 by Rostere

[Walsingham]

Not so solid on your defence notes on this one, oby, old son. Grad is electrically fired. You don't need an MLRS to launch them.

[kgambit]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/video-hamas-video-purports-to-show-rockets-fired-into-israel/article5404218/

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsejC-8N9tc

 

It definitely looks like some of those rockets come from MLRS to me. 

Edited August 13, 2013 by kgambit

[Rostere]

First off I want to say I really do not like the new buggy quoting system.

 

Anyway:

 

This is the most common rocket used by militants in Gaza: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket

 

Israel claims they are made out of water pipes. I figure that is anecdotal evidence of their awful accuracy, or at least reflects on their crude production. I've seen some sites of Qassam strikes where the rocket just left a black mark on the ground and some debris. You'd figure they could at least use HMTD as an explosive, but no. I could create a more dangerous rocket in a couple of days if I only had welding tools. I'm sure Hamas would like them to kill a lot of people, but their current status is "Mostly Harmless".

 

That said, Hamas has also had sporadic access to smuggled old Grad missiles (which must be like a "holy hand grenade" for them). But try to think about it yourself: the only way they can fire anything at Israel under 24/7 surveillance is if they quickly mount small rocket stands and fire single rockets from cover, there's simply no way they could have an entire Grad setup around, that would be blown to smithereens in seconds.

 

Also coming up inside Israel:

 

"I will not allow the city's Aryan character to be changed. I will block the establishment of a school for blacks and will build neighbourhoods for Aryan residents ...Upper Nazareth is an Aryan city!"

 

"Upper Nazareth will be Aryan forever; no more shutting our eyes… this is the time to defend our home"

 

Sounds racist to you? Only local elections as usual in Israel, if you exchange "Aryan" for "Jewish" and "black" for "Arab". This is the official party line on posters for the "Yisrael Beitenu" ("Israel Our Home") party in Upper Nazareth (through the candidate Shimon Gapsu), which since a recent merge is part of prime minister Netanyahu's party and one of the most prominent in the current government. This is the government and political direction to which the US has an "eternal" "unbreakable bond". These are the policies which the US supports to the tune of the astronomical amount of 3 billion dollars in tax money every year. And even stranger, the US guarantees Israel's exploding foreign debt for some reason.

 

Nevertheless, the local elections will be an important sign on whether or not the extreme right continues their recent string of successes.

[Agiel]

First off I want to say I really do not like the new buggy quoting system.

 

Anyway:

 

This is the most common rocket used by militants in Gaza: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket

 

Israel claims they are made out of water pipes. I figure that is anecdotal evidence of their awful accuracy, or at least reflects on their crude production. I've seen some sites of Qassam strikes where the rocket just left a black mark on the ground and some debris. You'd figure they could at least use HMTD as an explosive, but no. I could create a more dangerous rocket in a couple of days if I only had welding tools. I'm sure Hamas would like them to kill a lot of people, but their current status is "Mostly Harmless".

 

That said, Hamas has also had sporadic access to smuggled old Grad missiles (which must be like a "holy hand grenade" for them). But try to think about it yourself: the only way they can fire anything at Israel under 24/7 surveillance is if they quickly mount small rocket stands and fire single rockets from cover, there's simply no way they could have an entire Grad setup around, that would be blown to smithereens in seconds.

 

Unfortunately it's a case of politics getting in the way of actual good strategic and tactical considerations. I'm reminded of the Scud missile attacks in the 1991 Gulf War. General Chuck Horner who was the lead planner of all air operations was convinced that the Scud hunts were a complete waste of time and that he could have guaranteed Israel's safety if the assets he was forced to dedicate to destroying the launchers were used for other operations, as that would have hastened the end of the conflict and more decisively destroy Iraq's potential for waging war. He believed the Scuds were almost a non-issue and he was correct to a degree; only one Israeli death was attributed to the Scud missile, and that was because he had a heart attack from hearing the explosion. Also claims that Saddam could have mounted chemical warheads on them were completely unfounded; it is extremely difficult to design and manufacture a chemical warhead for a ballistic missile, as most all defense analysts at the time concluded this was well beyond Iraq's capabilities. You cannot simply put a cannister on the tip, the missile descends so fast that VX Nerve Gas will end up as a small toxic puddle at the bottom of a crater and not dispersed as intended.

[Zoraptor]

First off I want to say I really do not like the new buggy quoting system.

 

Anyway:

 

This is the most common rocket used by militants in Gaza: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qassam_rocket

 

Israel claims they are made out of water pipes. I figure that is anecdotal evidence of their awful accuracy, or at least reflects on their crude production. I've seen some sites of Qassam strikes where the rocket just left a black mark on the ground and some debris.

I've heard it said that they remove the warhead quite often to increase range (that's certainly what I heard said about the ones fired at Tel Aviv in the last flare up, which were a Grad variant iirc), so all you get on impact is a friction mark. My brain says that they'd potentially have problems with the ballistics if they did that but I'm, er, not a rocket scientist and they certainly aren't the most reliable of things performance wise whether they do that or not. In any case their rockets are clearly intended more as a "we're here, don't relax" rather than an actually useful military weapon, and cost a lot more to shoot down than to make.

[Rostere]

In 2008, the year most rockets were fired and most Israelis died from rocket fire, it took an average of 136 rockets to kill one person. Not one single person has died from rocket fire since 2011, when the new "Iron Dome" system was first installed. I guess nowadays it's really a non-issue for the ordinary man on the street in Israel. But Hamas/AJ will probably be trying to display their "power" by sending rockets also in the future, and Israel will continue to use the rockets as a pretext for inflicting arbitrary collective punishment.

 

Make no mistake, these rockets are deadly if they manage to hit you. But you're not going to be hurt if they crash outside your house.

[Walsingham]

My own view is that any entrenched militant movement is 80% oriented on tehir own people, not the 'enemy'. They certainly kill many times as many of 'their' side than they do police or soldiers.

 

In this case I knew that the casualties were low, but was assuming it was a case of Hamas et al. hoping for a lucky strike. On reflection I wonder if this isn't more about giving a public display of violence for the benefit of the poor bastards they bully every day. "I may not be able to get any amenities, and I may be terrified of offending anyone in the 'party', but at least I get free fireworks."

 

After all, since the barriers went up, if it wasn't for the rockets, these militant groups would be doing next to **** all. Besides pushing their own folks around.

Edited August 14, 2013 by Walsingham

[Rostere]

My own view is that any entrenched militant movement is 80% oriented on tehir own people, not the 'enemy'. They certainly kill many times as many of 'their' side than they do police or soldiers.

 

In this case I knew that the casualties were low, but was assuming it was a case of Hamas et al. hoping for a lucky strike. On reflection I wonder if this isn't more about giving a public display of violence for the benefit of the poor bastards they bully every day. "I may not be able to get any amenities, and I may be terrified of offending anyone in the 'party', but at least I get free fireworks."

 

After all, since the barriers went up, if it wasn't for the rockets, these militant groups would be doing next to **** all. Besides pushing their own folks around.

 

Yes, exactly. It's hard to justify your existence as a militant extremist group if you are entirely harmless. Hamas tries to come across as powerful so that their supporters can keep believing there is a point in fighting... I guess if they realized how little Hamas is able to do they would instead join a group who struggles peacefully for their rights.

[Walsingham]

Plus I doubt anyone ever got a promotion in these groups by suggesting they just chill out for six months.

 

And there's how many Palestinians being 'represented' by these folks?

 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't, really. Either the militants are elected legitimately, in which case isn't Israel actually legally at war? Or they aren't legitimate, and ... I'm not sure.

[Wrath of Dagon]

In 2008, the year most rockets were fired and most Israelis died from rocket fire, it took an average of 136 rockets to kill one person. Not one single person has died from rocket fire since 2011, when the new "Iron Dome" system was first installed. I guess nowadays it's really a non-issue for the ordinary man on the street in Israel. But Hamas/AJ will probably be trying to display their "power" by sending rockets also in the future, and Israel will continue to use the rockets as a pretext for inflicting arbitrary collective punishment.

 

Make no mistake, these rockets are deadly if they manage to hit you. But you're not going to be hurt if they crash outside your house.

First you neglect the terror effect of having to run to the shelter every time there's a warning siren. The rockets did plenty of property damage, but generally people are in shelters when they fall. Second Israel can't just ignore rockets falling on their territory, any other country in that situation would have to retaliate. Third if Hamas could fire continuously with impunity, the Iron Dome likely wouldn't be able to cope with salvos of rockets. Fourth you don't know what kind of weapons are being smuggled in from Egypt, Israel had intercepted an entire ship from Iran full of sophisticated weapons.

[Zoraptor]

Second Israel can't just ignore rockets falling on their territory, any other country in that situation would have to retaliate.

 

Like Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Sudan et alia, perchance? 

 

I broadly agree with the rest, but one of the big problems is the attitude that other countries only ever provoke Israel without reason, while Israel has to retaliate to this provocation. Or the reverse, Israel only ever provokes and all its enemies do is retaliate towards that provocation- who wouldn't in their position? Both circular arguments.

[Walsingham]

What I love is that the forum's eyes are firmly fixed on this question while Egypt is melting down.

[Rostere]

What I love is that the forum's eyes are firmly fixed on this question while Egypt is melting down.

 

Well, it is a more important issue. But you've really put your finger some very interesting points:

 

• Why is it so important for all Muslims to show solidarity with Palestinian Muslims (Christian Palestinians certainly don't get much solidarity from other Christians)?
• Why is it so important for the Zionists to take over Israel/Palestine?
• Why is it so important to the US to support the Zionists?

 

These are the million-dollar questions. Israel/Palestine is important simply because people believe it is, you can really take an arbitrary conflict, divide the world in two halves and let each half support one of the sides. This will obviously result in tremendous diplomatic clashes and a polarization of the entire world. Remember how WW1 started?

 

Israel/Palestine is what polarizes the US (and by extension, "the West") against the entire Muslim world. Without Israel/Palestine we would likely not have Muslim terrorists (Al-Qaeda, et.c.), we would absolutely not have had the (recent) wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, we would see a lot more foreign investment in Muslim countries, a more prosperous ME and significantly less Muslim refugees in Europe. Arab leaders would not have Israel to use as a perpetual "Get out of jail"-card, and Muslims would be increasingly looking to the democratic west for inspiration (since there no longer are any tensions).

 

In short, it's like a diplomatic "butterfly effect" - If all of Israel/Palestine would be nuked from orbit it would have close to zero effect on the world economy, but if the conflict could be resolved it could have HUGE positive diplomatic repercussions.

[Walsingham]

I'm not really sure we wouldn't have muslim terrorists. Terrorism is a product of world war two, and the communist 'revolutionary' model.

 

Bulk violence in the name of Islam isn't anything new to the 20th century, either. Ever heard of the 'mad mullah'?

 

I had this discussion with Frank Gardner - who I thought was very decent to take the time to do so considering he'd only recently been shot - and he conceded that it's important to distinguish between a rationale and a cause. Palestine is just how these fellahs choose to mobilise. If it wasn't that it would be something else. Ceuta-Mellila, or Playboy, or sausage rolls, or (more likely) the plight of 'ze workers'.

 

I'm not saying that Palestine doesn't add a ot of quantity to the numbers of potential terrorists. I'm just saying that it's a bit much to blame it for everything.

[Wrath of Dagon]

 

Second Israel can't just ignore rockets falling on their territory, any other country in that situation would have to retaliate.

Like Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Sudan et alia, perchance?

 

To the extent you mean US rockets, they're used with the agreement of the states you mentioned, and target their own enemies, and US doesn't fire them indiscriminately hoping to hit something. Not sure what you mean by Lebanon, Syria, and Sudan.

 

@Rostere, Al Qaeda started partly due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and partly due to US presence in Saudi Arabia to defend it and Kuwait from Iraq, nothing to do with Israel. In fact AQ is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is much older than Israel.

Edited August 15, 2013 by Wrath of Dagon