Play Ball! the 2013 Baseball Thread

[Keyrock]

The Sawx are continuing to pile up the runs, forcing Joe Maddon to go deep into his bullpen, which could prove costly down the road.  I love the fact that the Fenway Faithful are STILL breaking out the "Myers, Myers" chant.  They've been letting him hear it all game long. 

[kgambit]

The Sawx are continuing to pile up the runs, forcing Joe Maddon to go deep into his bullpen, which could prove costly down the road.  I love the fact that the Fenway Faithful are STILL breaking out the "Myers, Myers" chant.  They've been letting him hear it all game long. 

 

When Fernando Rodney is your "go to" guy you're pretty well screwed from the start. 

Sox are just putting a big time ass-whipping on the Rays.

[Hurlshort]

I am only comfortable watching the LA/Atlanta series if the Dodgers are losing.

 

I'm hoping for a Rays versus A's series and a Braves versus Pirates series in the next round.

[Leferd]

Oakland scored 34 runs on Detroit last time they met in their four game series in August. Hoping there's no regression towards the mean.

 

Max Scherzer v Bartolo Colon

 

Superstars v bunch of platoon hitters

[Keyrock]

I'd rather the As won this series, as the prospect of having to face Scherzer and Verlander in the ALCS isn't particularly appealing, not to mention having to pitch to Miggy.

[Leferd]

Hmm...Max Scherzer is pretty good.

[Keyrock]

Game 2 or Sawx/Rays coming up.  After the shellacking that Boston laid on Tampa yesterday, this becomes a really big game for the Rays.  They can't afford to go down 2-0.  Luckily for them, they have Price on the mound.  Lackey is going to have to be at his best today.  Just as importantly, the Sawx hitters will need to be patient and disciplined.  Work the count, make him throw extra pitches.  If they can get him out of the game in the 6th inning or so, that will give them an opportunity to beat up on the suspect Rays bullpen.

 

Anyway, I got a cold brew ready.  Game on!

[kgambit]

Game 2 or Sawx/Rays coming up.  After the shellacking that Boston laid on Tampa yesterday, this becomes a really big game for the Rays.  They can't afford to go down 2-0.  Luckily for them, they have Price on the mound.  Lackey is going to have to be at his best today.  Just as importantly, the Sawx hitters will need to be patient and disciplined.  Work the count, make him throw extra pitches.  If they can get him out of the game in the 6th inning or so, that will give them an opportunity to beat up on the suspect Rays bullpen.

 

Anyway, I got a cold brew ready.  Game on!

 

Price was a beast the three times he pitched at Fenway this year and Lackey has great home splits (not so much on the road).  Should be a good game. 

[Keyrock]

Price is just a beast all the time.  That's why it's imperative for Pedroia, Victorino, and Co. to work some 8, 10, 12 pitch at-bats and get his ass out of the game.  That's a thing the Sawx do well that doesn't show up in the box score.  Even before the 4th inning from hell last night, they had Moore over 50 pitches entering the 4th.  So even while he was blanking the Sawx in the first 3 innings, they were driving up the pitch count.

 

Do they have an advanced metric for that?  I ask out of curiosity, not facetiousness.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Keyrock]

And the Sawx get to Price early with aggressive baserunning and a massive jack by Papi.  Price is a pro, though.  He'll recover and get into a groove.  Hopefully Lackey can go into Shutdown Mode and make those 2 runs the winning runs.  

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

Price is just a beast all the time.  That's why it's imperative for Pedroia, Victorino, and Co. to work some 8, 10, 12 pitch at-bats and get his ass out of the game.  That's a thing the Sawx do well that doesn't show up in the box score.  Even before the 4th inning from hell last night, they had Moore over 50 pitches entering the 4th.  So even while he was blanking the Sawx in the first 3 innings, they were driving up the pitch count.

 

Do they have an advanced metric for that?  I ask out of curiosity, not facetiousness.

You don't need an advanced metric for pitch counts.

 

One of the more useful metrics for pitchers are those that that fall under DIPS (defense independent pitching statistics) - most prominent among these is BABIP (batting average on balls in play) as developed by Voros McCracken in the late 90's/early 2000's.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Independent_Pitching_Statistics

 

Even Bill James was busting himself at not having come up with it.

[Keyrock]

You don't need an advanced metric for pitch counts.

 

I beg to differ, unless you mean it's taken into account in some other statistics.  Driving up the pitch count can be extremely valuable, especially with a team that has a shaky bullpen.

 

Anyway, Lackey had control issues early, but has seemed to settle into a groove after having given up 1 run.  Sawx are up, but they need to stay disciplined and keep working long at-bats to get Price out of the game and have a chance to add to the lead.

 

Edit:  Just as I type that, David Ross uses the Monster to perfection for a lead off double.

 

Edit 2:  And Ellsbury drives in the run with a bloop double (his second bloop hit of the night).  Cheesy hits?  Yes.  I'll take 'em, so will Jacoby.

 

Edit 3:  Victorino singles.  1st and 3rd.  The Sawx have Price slightly rattled.  Laser Show needs to take advantage.

 

Edit 4:  Pedroia with another RBI on the fielder's choice.  Victorino with an aggressive, but clean slide to break up any chance for a double play.  4-1.  Price is on the ropes with Papi at-bat.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

You misunderstand. Those measurements are already sorted by most major league teams and broken down. But there is no magical formula (advanced metric) that measures that. You can just measure it in different ways after pitch counts using conventional means. Just use the raw data.

[Keyrock]

You misunderstand. Those measurements are already sorted by most major league teams and broken down. But there is no magical formula (advanced metric) that measures that. You can just measure it in different ways after pitch counts using conventional means. Just use the raw data.

Gotcha.  I only ask because, as I'm sure you'll agree, driving up pitch counts is a valuable batting tool.

 

Edit:  Papi lines out into an inning ending double play, but the damage has been done.  

 

Edit 2:  Isn't there a balls taken stat or something like that?  It's not exactly a driving up the pitch count stat, but definitely correlates.

 

Edit 3:  One thing I hate about watching the game on TBS is they don't show the amount of pitches thrown by the pitcher.  ESPN and Fox have it in their graphic overlay.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

Yep. Driving up pitch counts is always a good batting strategy. Most sabremetrically inclined teams (Oakland, Boston, Texas) tend to go after guys who'll take pitches.

 

PS

 

If you didn't already know, Boston actually hired both Bill James and Voros McCracken were hired on by John Henry and Theo Epstein early on in their regimes. James is still a consultant.

[Keyrock]

Agreed.  Contrary to how my previous posts may have sounded, I like advanced metrics, I think they're very valuable.  The fact that before Billy Beane OBP was considered a garbage stat, while I, and many others, now consider it MUCH more valuable than avg is just one of the examples.  They are definitely a valuable tool and a much better way of doing things than before.  I wanted to make the point that, even with advanced metrics, there are still some things that fall beyond the starts.  You simply can't put a human purely into stats (suck on that RPG stat freaks).

 

Edit:  Holy ****ing **** Zobrist!  That was one of the worst throws I've EVER seen.  And I've seen some really bad throws.  That was at least 15 feet off mark.

[Keyrock]

Stephen mutha****ing Drew with the ribbie triple off the monster after a pro-****ing-fessional at-bat.  They make the Rays pay for a fielding mistake yet again.  5-1 Sawx.  Game is getting out of hand for the Rays  The series is getting out of hand for the Rays.

 

In case you're wondering, yes, I'm a couple beers deep right now. 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

I would agree. Most successful teams are able to marry sabremetrics with traditional scouting. Use the data to back what the eyes are seeing and have scouts check up with what the stats say.

 

There was a huge war with the traditionalists throwing their nose up at people like Bill James for years, until Sandy Alderson came to power in Oakland in the 80's. He bought in early, and collected each of Bill James' annual baseball abstracts and quietly put these newfangled theories into practice. Later on, he introduced these books to Billy Beane who completely doubled down and went all in when he took over for Alderson in 97.

 

By this time, the sabremetric community was in glee that one of their own was OPENLY making smart baseball decisions using the objective based analysis --and all other teams are none-the-wiser.

 

Of course, after the release of Moneyball in 2003 - floodgates have opened and most teams employ personnel well versed in sabremetrics. Oakland gradually began to lose their competitive advantage and had to come up with new ways in finding undervalued players at rock bottom prices. 

[kgambit]

Stephen mutha****ing Drew with the ribbie triple off the monster after a pro-****ing-fessional at-bat.  They make the Rays pay for a fielding mistake yet again.  5-1 Sawx.  Game is getting out of hand for the Rays  The series is getting out of hand for the Rays.

 

In case you're wondering, yes, I'm a couple beers deep right now. 

 

LOL.  I just poured a second glass of red wine, so have another one,   No pitcher's duel tonight - Rays are starting to tag Lackey, he might last six - maybe. 

 

Hey Lefered ...  sabremetrics question for you.  Rumours are that Texas might be making a play on McCann (Atlanta) with an eye to keeping soto and dumping AJP.  Good move?

Edited October 5, 2013 by kgambit

[Keyrock]

Lackey has a rough inning, giving up 2, but limits the damage by being careful with Longoria, then working and freezing Zobrist for an inning ending K.  5-3 Sawx.  I need more liguor.

 

/heads to liquor cabinet

 

Edit:  that's good, Price.  Keep throwing to 1st while Laser Show is at bat.  You just go aheads and forget about Laser Show.

 

Edit 2:  And that's what happens when you pay too much attention to the guy on 1st.  Laser mutha****ing Show blasts a ribbie double off the Monster.  He's a former MVP for a reason.  When Laser Show is at-bat you mutha***ing better concentrate on Laser Show, forget who's on base.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

Soto had a very interesting year. He put up all star numbers against righty pitching...batting right handed. (272/359/515 -REVERSE PLATOON SPLIT) and can be had for a very reasonable salary. You will definitely get good value for his production.

 

AJP is 36 years old and is an asshat.

 

McCann is going to be on the wrong side of 30 and made $14 million last year. I would save that cash and find a platoon player to complement Soto.

[Keyrock]

By the way.  For anyone wondering where the Laser Show nickname came from:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPvMOVFshyI

 

Also, Papi is indeed fine.  Just fine.  Greatest designated hitter of all time fine.  I'm still not sure he'll make the Hall of Fame, but he is the best player EVER at his position, granted it's a non-fielding position.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Keyrock

[kgambit]

 

AJP is 36 years old and is an asshat.

 

 

ROTFL  Yeah, we learned that his reputation was well deserved. 

[Keyrock]

Lackey starts to struggle a bit and John Farrell, not ****ing around, brought Craig Breslow, super set -up man, to shut the inning the **** down.  Shut the inning the **** down he did.  I'm thinking, Doubront for the 7th and 8th, then Uehara to finish it off.

 

Tazawa shut the 8th down.  Now it's down to Uehara to do his job and close this out.  Uehara has been pretty much automatic this year, so I'm pretty confident.  Price is still out there in the bottom of the 8th, despite being down 6-4.  Is this really a good idea, Joe Maddon?  You may need him for game 5.

 

Edit:  And Papi gores yard off  Price around the Peski Pole to add salt to the wound.  Joe Maddon has to pull Price now, probably too late, since the game is almost definitely lost.

 

Edit 2: Finally Price is out of the game.  Too late now as the game is probably lost. I understand Joe Maddon's thinking, as he had to deplete his bullpen yesterday.  Now not only is this game almost certainly lost, David Price will be a shell of himself if this goes to game 5.  Now the Rays need to hope that they can get it to game 5.  In game 3 they will face Buchholz, who was, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball before his injury.  Then Peavey in game 4.  If they somehow survive that, they get the pleasure of a rested Jon Lester in Game 5 against a heavily worn down David Price.

 

Suck it down.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Keyrock

[Keyrock]

Koji Uehra