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Is Bill on crack ?


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"As the war between the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray camps continues, Bill Gates has revealed that he favours neither next-gen format - since in the future we'll be so busy downloading things and polishing our 900GB iPods that we'll have forgotten what "discs" of any kind look like".

 

There are couple of things that I don't see as likely here.

 

1. It's one thing to download a song - actually my personal opinion is that if you use an Ipod legally it's a huge waste of space right now...

 

2. I've got a PsP , and it's great for travel, but do you seriously think I'm going to watch movies on it rather than a big screen TV and a home theatre system given a choice ?

 

3. Games are big, and getting bigger all the time. I could fill a 900 gb space with a fraction of my software collection.

 

Security - Once I have the disk it's mine. When I download a song, something screws up and I have to do it all over again.

 

So unless Bill expects me to strap a home theatre system to my back I'd say he's talking bollocks any comments ? I mean if he seriously expected download to be the future why did the 360 only come with a 20 GB HD ? :thumbsup:

I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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2. I've got a PsP , and it's great for travel, but do you seriously think I'm going to watch movies on it rather than a big screen TV and a home theatre system given a choice ?

 

Actually, for once I think Bill is right. His track record of predicting the future is sketchy at best.

 

I currently have my computer hooked up to my TV and home theatre system and vastly prefer digital media over anything that comes on a disc. It's not a feasible alternative to most people yet, but once 100mbit internet connections become the standard I think it could very well be.

 

 

So unless Bill expects me to strap a home theatre system to my back I'd say he's talking bollocks any comments ? I mean if he seriously expected download to be the future why did the 360 only come with a 20 GB HD ?  :thumbsup:

 

This I do agree on though. If downloading is the future, of course a harddrive is essential. If the X-box shipped with a 300GB harddrive, then selling games to it over X-box live could actually become a feasible option within it's life span.

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900 GB would only be a FRACTION of your game library?!??!

 

Back when I was a PC gamer full time I had 2 , 500 GB HD's in my machine.

 

For me to accept downloading it has to be what I would consider a throwaway ammount. Like rentals'

 

I don't doubt it will happen at some point. But I doubt it will be in Bills lifetime let alone the 360's.

Edited by ShadowPaladin V1.0
I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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2 500 GB HDs???

 

 

What models?

 

And still, at 1 GB average per game, you'd need 900 games! 2 GB average per game is 450 games. Certainly a little on the expensive side, ignoring the cost of the hard drives themselves?

 

You also make it sound like it was a long time ago......500 GB drives a long time ago??? With a few hundred games????

 

 

I wish I had your bling!

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2 500 GB HDs???

 

 

What models?

 

And still, at 1 GB average per game, you'd need 900 games!  2 GB average per game is 450 games.  Certainly a little on the expensive side, ignoring the cost of the hard drives themselves?

 

You also make it sound like it was a long time ago......500 GB drives a long time ago???  With a few hundred games????

 

 

I wish I had your bling!

 

I've calmed down since I got married.

 

Ask me another :"> I still have one around here, blew up while full of games (of course I have the originals so it's only the saves I lost) but it does highlight a problem I tend to have with downloading.

 

Games at the moment seem to come in at around 6-8 GB (looking at some of the latest releases).

 

Since the revolution has access to the Nintendo back catalogue it should be a good litmus test. The games are a lot smaller too since they are N64/Snes/Nes.

I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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Having been a connesieur of ROMS back in the day, I can say that anything pre-Cube Nintendo-wise is really small. Biggest N64 file I ever saw was 70MB or summat, usually the larger ones were only 64.

 

SNES games were usually 16MB tops.

 

NES were so small you could usually put them on a floppy if you really wanted to.

 

Also, it should be noted that games are often even larger if you consider their fully unpacked state. They compress a lot of the files on the game discs, the only reason the unpacked installs aren't ginormous is most of the meaty bits are left on the disc and read as you play (in the case of PC games).

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I didn't even know they sold 500 GB hard drives. When I got my PC 2 years ago the biggest I could get was a 160. Which I should have gotten two of instead of the two 80GB ones I got.

The area between the balls and the butt is a hotbed of terrorist activity.

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2 500 GB HDs???

 

 

What models?

 

And still, at 1 GB average per game, you'd need 900 games!  2 GB average per game is 450 games.  Certainly a little on the expensive side, ignoring the cost of the hard drives themselves?

 

You also make it sound like it was a long time ago......500 GB drives a long time ago???  With a few hundred games????

 

 

I wish I had your bling!

 

I've calmed down since I got married.

 

Ask me another :"> I still have one around here, blew up while full of games (of course I have the originals so it's only the saves I lost) but it does highlight a problem I tend to have with downloading.

 

Games at the moment seem to come in at around 6-8 GB (looking at some of the latest releases).

 

Since the revolution has access to the Nintendo back catalogue it should be a good litmus test. The games are a lot smaller too since they are N64/Snes/Nes.

 

 

I think 6-8 GB still might be a wee bit large. Some are, but those are still rare.

 

My KOTOR 2 directory clocks in at 5 GB, but that's with 1.5 GB of saved games.

Vampire Bloodlines is 2.86

 

SC: Chaos Theory is 3.5 GB.

WOW: 5 GB

Half-Life 2 is just over 6 GB

Rome: Total War is my biggest at just over 8 GB.

 

 

Considering those games are all relatively new, coupled with 500 GB Hard Drives, you must have JUST got married. Even then, as you say, that's current. I'd wager that the majority of games in my library barely break 650 MB though, given my library is rather extensive.

 

When did you get these hard drives?

 

 

I have a 160 GB and a 250 GB drive, and mountains of free space. I could see needing a TB of HD space if you were a movie junkie, but I AM a game junkie and can't fill up my HD space fast enough.

 

How many games do you have????

 

 

 

Also, it should be noted that games are often even larger if you consider their fully unpacked state. They compress a lot of the files on the game discs, the only reason the unpacked installs aren't ginormous is most of the meaty bits are left on the disc and read as you play (in the case of PC games).

 

Most games for the PC AFAIK rarely touch the CD drive, aside from checking copy protection. I can verify this as I can play any one of my games without the CD in the drive (i.e. I eject it after I pass the copy protection).

Edited by alanschu
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For me to accept downloading it has to be what I would consider a throwaway ammount. Like rentals'

 

I don't doubt it will happen at some point. But I doubt it will be in Bills lifetime let alone the 360's.

 

To clarify, I didn't suggest that downloading would replace buying physical discs during the 360's lifetime. I just said with a large harddrive it would probably be a feasible option. The two complementing eachother.

 

It already is a feasible option on the PC, Half-Life 2 was sold in this manner if I recall correctly.

 

In order for downloads to become accepted by the mianstream I do believe the games need to be cheaper than their physical counterparts. I don not, however, believe it needs to be as low as the price of a rental. The price should reflect that the costs for packaging and distribution have been considerably lessened though.

 

Edit:

 

Discs protect you from hard drive failure.

 

Discs will be around forever.

 

Discs can be scratched. I've had this happen with a PS2 game of mine, so Discs are in no way eternal.

 

Depending on how a downloading service is implemented, it can even be safer than discs. If you can re-download the game again without any additional costs, then you have a very large number of back-ups.

Edited by Spider
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I think 6-8 GB still might be a wee bit large.  Some are, but those are still rare.

 

My KOTOR 2 directory clocks in at 5 GB, but that's with 1.5 GB of saved games.

Vampire Bloodlines is 2.86

 

SC: Chaos Theory is 3.5 GB.

WOW: 5 GB

Half-Life 2 is just over 6 GB

Rome: Total War is my biggest at just over 8 GB.

 

 

Considering those games are all relatively new, coupled with 500 GB Hard Drives, you must have JUST got married.  Even then, as you say, that's current.  I'd wager that the majority of games in my library barely break 650 MB though, given my library is rather extensive.

 

When did you get these hard drives?

 

 

I have a 160 GB and a 250 GB drive, and mountains of free space.  I could see needing a TB of HD space if you were a movie junkie, but I AM a game junkie and can't fill up my HD space fast enough.

 

How many games do you have????

 

 

 

Also, it should be noted that games are often even larger if you consider their fully unpacked state. They compress a lot of the files on the game discs, the only reason the unpacked installs aren't ginormous is most of the meaty bits are left on the disc and read as you play (in the case of PC games).

 

Most games for the PC AFAIK rarely touch the CD drive, aside from checking copy protection. I can verify this as I can play any one of my games without the CD in the drive (i.e. I eject it after I pass the copy protection).

 

It's probably not too far off for the near future though.

 

When I say my games collection I should add that I'm not just talking about PC games in case anyone is thinking that. But games in general.

 

I did fill one 500GB drive, hence getting a second one although I never managed to fill that one before the first went boom.

 

As for when I got them. I couldnt say I'm terrble at keeping track of this kind of thing to me last years games are old. I know when I got the first they were very new at the time and pretty expensive.

 

How many games... Well I used to keep a list , but in the end I gave up. Aside from the ones in the attic here, there are a ton in my folks attic too.

I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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Expensive?? Yeah, like $1000 buckaroonies!!

 

 

I wish my arms were self-regenerating and made of money like yours! I'm jealous more than anything :thumbsup:

 

 

I have tons of games, but many of them are quarter filled CDs from the late 1990s and even on floppy disk!

 

900 GB! Wowzers. I remember full installing Baldur's Gate to it's 2 GB install back in the day :)

 

 

 

Did you fill the hard drive just with games though? I've seen people with rather extensive music collections, and videos are just gigantic. I don't d/l them, but my roommate does and he's always complaining about what he should delete :(

Edited by alanschu
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Discs can be scratched. I've had this happen with a PS2 game of mine, so Discs are in no way eternal.

 

Depending on how a downloading service is implemented, it can even be safer than discs. If you can re-download the game again without any additional costs, then you have a very large number of back-ups.

 

That they can. Only happened to me with games where they try to pack too many disks in the packaging though (one reason I dont like multidisk games).

 

If you get a lifetime pass for a game then I wouldnt really have a problem with that. Although the thought of having to redownload 900 GB of games would piss me off.

I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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Many download services don't offer "lifetime passes" though, because it's too easy to abuse.

 

I'm only allowed 5 installs with my Eastside Hockey Manager. I don't blame them, otherwise I could just buy the game once and give the registration code to all of my friends.

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Did you fill the hard drive just with games though?  I've seen people with rather extensive music collections, and videos are just gigantic.  I don't d/l them, but my roommate does and he's always complaining about what he should delete :rolleyes:

 

Mostly games but I also accumulated the usual stuff as well. Downloading movies used to be a very naughty thing to do, so of course I didnt do that..

 

If you think thats bad, back when the Internet first became available in the UK it used to cost 5p per minute offpeak and 8p during the day. :o

I have to agree with Volourn.  Bioware is pretty much dead now.  Deals like this kills development studios.

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As soon as it became available, my Dad got an account that had no caps on bandwidth usage for a flat monthly rate.

 

 

Still can't get over that. WOW! Did you like needlessly copy them repeatedly??? :p

 

I have Duke3D on my computer, and it's only 40 MB. The Ultima Collection takes up 250 MB, and that's 8 games! (UC doesn't have U9).

 

 

I bow before your dedication. Maybe if I was older and could have bought more games myself I could have attained your library. I thought mine was big (including consoles)...

 

:rolleyes:

 

Two 500 GB....yeesh........Mr. Moneybags here......thinks he so better than us!

 

:o

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Many download services don't offer "lifetime passes" though, because it's too easy to abuse.

 

I'm only allowed 5 installs with my Eastside Hockey Manager.  I don't blame them, otherwise I could just buy the game once and give the registration code to all of my friends.

 

For unlimited downloads to work, there needs to be a controlled system in place which can enforce all kinds of DRM in it's very structure. Sort of like Valve did with Steam (I'm not sure Steam allows unlimited downloads since I haven't tried it and can't find any reference to it, but that is not really the point). The X-box is ideal for this since it already has that system in place with X-box Live.

 

I'm not saying this is something that can be applied today, although it's a process that can definitely be started within the next 5 years.

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As other people have stated Bill Gates has said some stupid stuff before but i think he is onto something with this.

 

I think it depends on three factors though:

 

Bandwidth - this will become less of a problem. In the Uk at least ADSL+2 is being rolled out with a 24Mb connection. At max speed (fingers crossed) your average DVD-9 is downloaded in about an hour.

 

Network/DRM: Home wireless is ok at the moment speeds are increasinga nd it is easy to set up. But once i have my legally downloaded movie/game album i would like to be able to stream it to my tv/hifi/console without and copy protection crap

 

Storage: this is where it falls down, hard drives are getting bigger but they are still susceptible to crashes and corruption etc. If your harddrive "goes boom" thats your whole collection gone. Even though CD/DVD isnt invincible if one gets damaged it can be replaced, it would be independent of your collection of physcial disc media (unless a meteor fell on your dvd cabinet)

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