Ukraine Conflict - continuing

[Zoraptor]

Is there any evidence the Russians didn't always think GoK was a load of old bollocks?

Ukrainian propaganda is not very sophisticated at all, it just has the massive advantage- in the west- of just about everyone in the media wanting it to be true and reporting it as such even when it's highly implausible. Babushka with pickle jar isn't exactly credible, nor are their casualty estimates and they've been regularly caught gilding the lily to make more appealing stories ("Snake Island defenders fought to the last man").

Russian propaganda aimed at the west is pretty rubbish. Too much smorgasbording if anything bad happens ("don't like this scenario? OK, here's a dozen more which aren't at all compatible with each other pick the one you like!") and most of the people taken in by it are already anti their government in some way. The only stuff that is actually effective tends to be self inflicted by the west- not being able to trust the (western) media works as a narrative because you cannot trust the (western) media, not because it's good propaganda.

[Malcador]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:10 AM, Mamoulian War said:

In Russia, this was a propaganda, which tried to sew a little bit of fear into the pilots of larger country, which are committing war crimes on daily bases, and for some time it worked.

Been a while but I don't recall it actually working.  Was some feel good BS spread by non-Ukrainians, from what I recall.  There's a continuum of propaganda, doesn't matter blue or red team, ranges from stupid to clever.  It's died down here, pretty telling, but boy was it annoying as hell in the first months, reporters blathering "Slava Ukraini"

Speaking of such, David Axe of all people with this article - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/27/the-sukhoi-apocalypse-might-be-a-myth-ukraine-claims-it-shot-down-seven-su-25s-but-theres-evidence-for-just-two/?sh=83e20283da1d

Probably same applies for huge number of Su-34s suposedly downed earlier this year.

 

[Mamoulian War]

Afaik for SU-34s has been shown some evidence. Most of them have been destroyed directly on the airports though. And they stopped reporting on them after alleged destruction of two Patriot Launchers in Doneck Oblast. And yes, Axe is correct, the late claimed downing of SU-25s lacks footage.

Anyway, back to the myth of Ghost of Kyiv:
 

Quote

An anonymous Ukrainian military expert told BBC that it helped "raise morale at a time when people need simple stories", and the Air Force Command also warned people to not "neglect the basic rules of information hygiene" and to "check the sources of information, before spreading it". The statement came after multiple media outlets published stories wrongly identifying Major Stepan Tarabalka as the man behind the moniker. Tarabalka was a real pilot who died on 13 March 2022 during air combat and was posthumously awarded the title Hero of Ukraine.

 

[HoonDing]

Clearly it was Tom Cruise.

[Zoraptor]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

Speaking of such, David Axe of all people with this article..

David Axe is a bit weird like that. He was also theoretically skeptical about all those Su-34s being shot down in February, but then proceeded to write an entire article on the imminent collapse of the Russian air force as if they were confirmed. Then literally literally* two weeks later... "Russia's Air Force is Back" by David Axe for the torygraph.

You can't really write nuanced and well balanced stuff for Forbes Sites anyway since concern #1 is attracting clicks/ad revenue. Of course nowadays you can't do nuanced and well balanced for the Telegraph either most of the time.

*ok it was actually 15 days, so literally figuratively literally, but close.

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Clearly it was Tom Cruise.

I can't wait for this war to get the Hollywood treatment.

[Gorth]

49 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I can't wait for this war to get the Hollywood treatment.

Meh, enough with the Marvel stuff already

(isn't that all they do these days?)

[Mamoulian War]

Results of Kharkiv offensive in the words of Russian serviceman.

 

[Gorth]

Little seems to have changed since 1939. I wonder if they still have NKVD officers and commissars?

[xzar_monty]

19 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Little seems to have changed since 1939. I wonder if they still have NKVD officers and commissars?

A Finnish military specialist just recently pointed out that it's a stupid strategy but may well work in the end, given that Russia has such a great advantage in numbers (of men sent to be killed). A bit of a harrowing thought, that. "We don't care how many of our men get killed, because we're going to have more in the end anyway." No Western or even "Western" country could have withstood such casualties (in 2022-2024, that is; in 1939-1945 it was different).

[Mamoulian War]

The situation is different today for Russia as well. They are not under lend lease from USA, so even if the manpower does not run dry, artillery and tanks will run low sooner or later. There is no way, that Russia can sustain losing 20-50 artillery and 10-25 tanks each day in the long term. Yes they are on war economy for a long time already, but there is no chance for them to build 1000 new artillery and 500 new tanks a month, when they are already lacking qualified workforce. It is now much easier to flee Russia now, than half century ago.

[xzar_monty]

By the way, I recently read some speculations concerning the question of how and when a power with imperialist ambitions is prepared to give them up. The two most recent examples are Germany and Japan, and neither of them was prepared to give up their imperialist ambitions until they were essentially crushed. This speculation also contained the rather unpleasant idea that maybe WW2 would have been avoided if Germany had been humiliated more (instead of less) thoroughly in WW1. What happened in WW1 gave the Germans the idea of creating their own Empire Strikes Back, but it wouldn't have happened if they had been crushed like Japan in WW2.

This is all speculation, of course, and the situation is very different now, with nuclear weapons. But the pertinent question remains: what does it take for a nation with imperialist ambitions to give them up. This is relevant because if we somehow manage to bring about peace in Ukraine, it may well be that it is not possible for Russians to accept it in the long term. They will want revenge.

Edited June 3 by xzar_monty

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

A Finnish military specialist just recently pointed out that it's a stupid strategy but may well work in the end, given that Russia has such a great advantage in numbers (of men sent to be killed). A bit of a harrowing thought, that. "We don't care how many of our men get killed, because we're going to have more in the end anyway." No Western or even "Western" country could have withstood such casualties (in 2022-2024, that is; in 1939-1945 it was different).

But also a major  difference between any Western country and Russia is Putin has the advantage of no political consequence in elections for a war objective  that has failed to reach its primary  objectives after 2 years  and body bags piling up and being sent home

If this was a Western country I can guarantee you the anti-war candidate would have gained huge support in any normal free and fair election

Autocratic governments dont have to worry  about public sentiment in any election. Putin will never lose any election so  the meatgrinder  and cannon fodder Russian strategy is considered fine and has seen success on the battlefield

 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

 

This is all speculation, of course, and the situation is very different now, with nuclear weapons. But the pertinent question remains: This is relevant because if we somehow manage to bring about peace in Ukraine, it may well be that it is not possible for Russians to accept it in the long term. They will want revenge.

Its an interesting question " what does it take for a nation with imperialist ambitions to give them up"

And as you mentioned its  very hard because its also tied into political survival  and the legacy of the person  and government , its very seldom about whats best for country in the long-term so they will continue to the bitter end in many cases like WW2 Germany and Japan 

Its similar to Netanyahu and what matters the most to him, his own political survival is more important to him than what is in the best interests of Israel and how people think of Israel around the globe 

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Little seems to have changed since 1939. I wonder if they still have NKVD officers and commissars?

Whole lot of inaccuracies about that in WW2 though. 

Seems a ok even without the US weapons and strike permission they were crying for though.

Ukrainian DEAD is working well lately.  F16s will run riot

Edited June 3 by Malcador

[Zoraptor]

12 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The two most recent examples are Germany and Japan, and neither of them was prepared to give up their imperialist ambitions until they were essentially crushed.

Not the USSR?

Or the UK?

Or any of the pan Arabists?

Or France (ok, maybe they haven't quite given up their imperial ambitions)

Some selective choices and almost certain conclusion shopping going on if the author thought the last two were Germany and Japan.

15 hours ago, Gorth said:

Little seems to have changed since 1939. I wonder if they still have NKVD officers and commissars?

Ironically the Ukrainian TCC (ie recruiters) are probably the closest. Kind of telling that despite all the media blackout laws in Ukraine we get vastly more videos of their citizens getting obviously press ganged than Russians.

[Mamoulian War]

17 hours ago, Malcador said:

Whole lot of inaccuracies about that in WW2 though. 

Seems a ok even without the US weapons and strike permission they were crying for though.

Ukrainian DEAD is working well lately.  F16s will run riot

That one has been confirmed as a first hit by HIMARS in Russia.

 

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not the USSR?

Or the UK?

Or any of the pan Arabists?

Or France (ok, maybe they haven't quite given up their imperial ambitions)

Some selective choices and almost certain conclusion shopping going on if the author thought the last two were Germany and Japan.

Ironically the Ukrainian TCC (ie recruiters) are probably the closest. Kind of telling that despite all the media blackout laws in Ukraine we get vastly more videos of their citizens getting obviously press ganged than Russians.

According to Ukrainian officials many of these videos has been “crafted” by Russia as a PSYOPS to undermine the UA efforts to defends itself which is pretty much plausible, taking into account their history of involvement in Ukraine

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/2/7458820/

[BruceVC]

10 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Not the USSR?

Or the UK?

Or any of the pan Arabists?

Or France (ok, maybe they haven't quite given up their imperial ambitions)

Some selective choices and almost certain conclusion shopping going on if the author thought the last two were Germany and Japan.

Ironically the Ukrainian TCC (ie recruiters) are probably the closest. Kind of telling that despite all the media blackout laws in Ukraine we get vastly more videos of their citizens getting obviously press ganged than Russians.

I assume he is talking about imperialism tied to a particular leader and not the hundreds of years of European Colonialism or Imperialism

Which is why he used WW2 Germany and Japan as an example 

And Russians imperialism is inextricably tied to Putins aspirations to recreate the old Soviet borders and Russian empire and under Putin specifically Russia has become more undemocratic and authoritarian

Would it be the same if Putin died tomorrow, we dont know because there are other Russian nationalists but Russia  now is definitely a reality of Putins political and geopolitical views 

He is huge factor in the  political direction Russia is taking 

 

 

 

[Zoraptor]

That would be a completely rubbish definition of imperialism and definitely would support the claim of conclusion shopping. If you do imperialism tied to a specific leader Rome wasn't an imperial power, and they literally gave us the term.

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to Ukrainian officials many of these videos has been “crafted” by Russia as a PSYOPS to undermine the UA efforts to defends itself which is pretty much plausible, taking into account their history of involvement in Ukraine

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/2/7458820/

Funnily enough I read that almost immediately after making the comment.

Russia embiggening the videos, yeah. It's in their interest to. And there is certainly reasonable questions to be asked about whether someone claiming to be Ukrainian actually is when the source is (mostly) telegram. Same skepticism has to be applied both ways though, including, say, a video of a purported Russian claiming his unit has been almost entirely wiped out.

Mostly though the problem with the Ukrainian claims about the TCC's conduct is how many are able to be geolocated. If Russia is able to shoot propaganda videos of people getting beaten up and chucked in vans by recruiters actually and identifiably in Odessa/ Kiev/ Lviv etc... well they wouldn't be using infiltration like that to shoot shakey cam videos of women swearing at them.

[xzar_monty]

14 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Some selective choices and almost certain conclusion shopping going on if the author thought the last two were Germany and Japan.

No conclusion shopping, simply inaccurate relaying on my part, apologies. So, instead of "the two most recent examples", it should have read "two recent examples" being Germany and Japan.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That would be a completely rubbish definition of imperialism and definitely would support the claim of conclusion shopping. If you do imperialism tied to a specific leader Rome wasn't an imperial power, and they literally gave us the term.

Funnily enough I read that almost immediately after making the comment.

Russia embiggening the videos, yeah. It's in their interest to. And there is certainly reasonable questions to be asked about whether someone claiming to be Ukrainian actually is when the source is (mostly) telegram. Same skepticism has to be applied both ways though, including, say, a video of a purported Russian claiming his unit has been almost entirely wiped out.

Mostly though the problem with the Ukrainian claims about the TCC's conduct is how many are able to be geolocated. If Russia is able to shoot propaganda videos of people getting beaten up and chucked in vans by recruiters actually and identifiably in Odessa/ Kiev/ Lviv etc... well they wouldn't be using infiltration like that to shoot shakey cam videos of women swearing at them.

You are correct about the healthy dose of skepticism, that should be applied to both sides. The reason, that I have shared the last video of Russian soldier claiming big losses, is that I have seen in the last week more than a few confirmed Russian milbloggers, that have been complaining about serious loses at the Kharkiv direction, which have used words, that have been last used by Prigozhin. Can we say with 100% sure, if he was really Russian soldier? Most likely not, but in context to the articles/blogs/tweets which I went through, and the UA side being able to reclaim some previously occupied areas, I have considered the video plausible enough to describe what’s going on in Kharkiv direction.

[Malcador]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

No conclusion shopping, simply inaccurate relaying on my part, apologies. So, instead of "the two most recent examples", it should have read "two recent examples" being Germany and Japan.

France - lots more blood - and UK are more recent, their empires falling apart after those two, slightly.

[Zoraptor]

Dunno, France had more direct blood trying to hold onto its empire as in Algeria or Vietnam, Britain had more indirect blood from incompetent? malevolent? map making and the like. Wouldn't exonerate them just because it wasn't British troops doing the slaughter and religious cleansing in India or Biafra.

[Mamoulian War]

Part from an interview with Russian/Russian Speaking Economist Igor Lipsits, currently living in Lithuania.