Ukraine Conflict - The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his

[BruceVC]

This is 9 months old but I wanted to share it, excellent choreography and really well done 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

And Macron in his latest interview in TF1 has hinted about providing long range missiles to UA as well.

[xzar_monty]

52 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Last night, UA intercepted all missiles launched by Russia. Including 6 Kinzhals

Would love to see proper evidence for the Kinzhals, as that would be a superb achievement.

[Mamoulian War]

Besides UA official info, I have found only this. It is fresh info from this morning.

 

 

[Zoraptor]

That is... not very convincing.

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

100 slightly older Leopard 1 (probably still a lot better than the Russian Sardine Cans)

Yeah... nah. They'll have better optics than most Russian tanks, and better speed especially in reverse. To be fair to it, the Leo1 is a bit better armoured than a sardine can, but not actually by that much- and it stores ready use ammo in the turret.

(You can penetrate a Leo1 with a sniper rifle round from a decent distance- something you can't even do with a T-34. Not from the front, but there you could at least in theory be in trouble to... the WW2 era 50mm pak 38 or equivalent. The Panzer IV had more armour, so did the Ronson Tommycooker Sherman and neither was renowned for their armour even in WW2.

We also saw exactly what happens to Leo2s with ammo stored in the turret in Syria- ie big boom, turret goes flying- and at best Leo1s are in the same situation for that as the Leo2s)

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

That is... not very convincing.

Indeed.

Obviously I'm not an expert on the subject, but I could quite reliably recognize David Gilmour or Neil Peart from less than one bar of music, and I suppose that piece of scrap metal might well scream "Kinzhal" to someone who really knows this stuff. But even then that would only amount to one (1) Kinzhal destroyed, provided that the time and location are correct...

I hope we're going to see some better evidence in the near future.

[Mamoulian War]

Yes it is not.  TBH CBA to surf for more evidence around the web while at work, so I hope someone finds something better. So far, the we have this:

-UA airforce states 6 Kinzhals were downed.

-Ru MoD is silent.

everything else is just speculation.

[xzar_monty]

@Zoraptor, do you have anything to say on whether a military entity, on bringing down a Kinzhal, would definitely know that it's done just that? I mean, given its velocity, I suppose any air defence might well know what it's hitting, but I'm not sure on this. (Just to be sure: this is obviously a completely separate question from what the UA airforce claims it's done.)

Edited May 16, 2023 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

As for Zelenskyi possibly planning to conquer some Russian ground: makes me think of some Finns at various points between 1941 and 1944... Once you get going, it can be hard to stop.

Except nuclear weapons exist this time.

[xzar_monty]

Moldova to leave the CIS. Whether this turns out to be a blow for Putin / Russia probably hinges on whether any countries join in.

https://tass.com/world/1617469

[Malcador]

Saw one claim that one explosions was a failed interceptor hitting a weapons dump, which is some super lousy luck if true.

[Mamoulian War]

16 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Saw one claim that one explosions was a failed interceptor hitting a weapons dump, which is some super lousy luck if true.

Here is the official statement for the incident. They are talking about debris as well.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/16/7402387/

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

https://ewn.co.za/2023/05/15/anc-says-russian-party-warned-that-if-sa-arrests-putin-it-s-a-war-declaration#:~:text=JOHANNESBURG%20%2D%20The%20African%20National%20Congress,be%20a%20declaration%20of%20war

The Ruskies have said they will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested in August at the BRICS meeting  because of the  ICC warrant 

BRICS friendship strong   But I doubt Putin will come to SA, he will attend virtually. His  travel paranoia will hopefully continue so SA is not put in this invidious position

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by BruceVC

[xzar_monty]

25 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But I doubt Putin will come to SA, he will attend virtually. His  travel paranoia will hopefully continue so SA is not put in this invidious position

I also doubt he will come, but looked at from another point of view, SA is not in a potentially invidious position, it is in a position to do something heroic -- and its current policy of neutrality is the epitome of spinelessness.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

I also doubt he will come, but looked at from another point of view, SA is not in a potentially invidious position, it is in a position to do something heroic -- and its current policy of neutrality is the epitome of spinelessness.

To tell you the truth its not spinelessness but more  misplaced and confused historical ties to the USSR and how the Soviets helped liberation movements in Africa

The fact that was over 30 years ago and the Cold War is long over and Ukraine was part of the USSR makes the argument unconvincing but thats a big part of the support for Russia

 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

Here is some analysis of the impact. Most likely one of eight launchers has been damaged, if it was hit at all. So pulling it back seems from the footage unlikely, but posiible. We’ll see in a day or two. Still one of the launchers for 6 Kinzhals would not be a bad exchange rate, if it was really only the launcher hit.

 

[Malcador]

Launcher not that big a deal as opposed to the radar in any case.

[Zoraptor]

Not really possible to tell anything for certain from that video- but if it was Patriots it seems extremely unlikely it was a single launcher due to the volume of shots.

I think I'd be more worried about how the Russians were able to target it on the fly more than any actual damage, since that suggests it's repeatable.

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

..do you have anything to say on whether a military entity, on bringing down a Kinzhal, would definitely know that it's done just that? I mean, given its velocity, I suppose any air defence might well know what it's hitting, but I'm not sure on this. (Just to be sure: this is obviously a completely separate question from what the UA airforce claims it's done.)

Not really possible to say. A kinzhal doesn't fly hypersonically for its full flight path and there are multiple missiles of similar size but slower top speed. Assuming they aren't out and out lying then they'd know they brought down something- but, well, to put it another way: German pilots always shot down Spitfires, never Hurricanes; Russians hit HiMARS and Patriots, not Grads and IRIS-T.

Even debris isn't exactly foolproof. That 'warhead' from a couple of days ago was hollow even in early pictures and bears an uncanny resemblance to a (decommissioned) BETAB-500 dumb bomb. Which weighs the right amount for a Kinzhal warhead, but is over 2m long and decidedly not hollow. And designed for subsonic penetration, not hypersonic with 25x the KE minimum. Indeed, a couple of days ago where the motor engine is on that tweet MW linked is where the warhead was (and if it were the warhead then that is where it would have to be). Perhaps more 'objectively' the Russians/ Syrians did a very similar thing after US/ Brit/ French airstrikes and the claim then was that no missiles were shot down and the debris was from missiles that hit.

If I were the Russians I'd be jury rigging old (ish, don't think the 75km models would cut it) S-300 missiles to MiG-31s and firing them off every night since they're same size and ~same speed but essentially 'free' since they're so old- and there are a lot of them. Certainly a lot cheaper than the interceptors that would be fired at them, and the production rate for Patriots is not that high.

 

[ShadySands]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The Ruskies have said they will declare war on SA if Putin is arrested in August at the BRICS meeting  because of the  ICC warrant 

Not as scary of a threat as it used to be

[Mamoulian War]

 

[Zoraptor]

One other thing that is worth mentioning about that 'Patriot' being hit- it very likely isn't a kinzhal doing the hitting whatever the Russians say. That isn't a very big explosion for 400+kg, especially when night typically makes them look bigger, not smaller, than daytime.

Also, wreckage of the Patriots seems to confirm at least some are PAC-3, which might reduce it to a single launcher present. Two still more likely though.

[xzar_monty]

Not a good time to be a scientist in Russia. This piece of news made me think of Stalin and his era.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/3-russian-hypersonic-missile-scientists-jailed-for-treasoncolleagues-say-a81155

[BruceVC]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/16/world/europe/russia-ukraine-peace-ramaphosa-africa.html#:~:text=President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa%2C as well,Lynsey Chutel May 16%2C 2023%2C 12%3A47 p.m. ET

There is an African peace mission that both Putin and Zelensky have agreed to that includes 6 African leaders that will be travelling to Moscow and Kiev

What do you guys think, can Africa find a peaceful solution to this conflict? I think its well meaning and appreciated but it wont achieve much for several reasons but primarily because Putins political future is tied into achieving some sort of victory and right now Russia hasnt achieved any sense of a victory?

But lets see but I am not confident

[xzar_monty]

20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

What do you guys think, can Africa find a peaceful solution to this conflict?

No.

It's not Africa's fault, though.