Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[BruceVC]

5 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

 

 

By far the most successful UA attack on Russian lines, but Russians are committing reserves to contain it so don't get your hopes up yet.  Western Psyops are having a field day with this but all I see is a reminiscent of 1943 Kursk offensive where reserves eventually won out. 

@Mamoulian War Ukrainian Nazi army is invincible!  Western toys are gonna destroy Ruskieland, Putin is going to be overthrown by a shadow sect in Russia and what remains of Russia will be a Chinese oil factory with snowcaps.

So you still believe this invasion is about cleansing Ukraine of Neo-Nazis? And the Nukes and NATO, is that significant or is it just all those Nazis?

[BruceVC]

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/09/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-izyum-russia

Much of success of the Ukrainian offensive seems to be around how the Russians fell for a ruse, the Ukrainians publicly stated they were going to attack Kherson so the Ruskies moved much of there forces to that region but then the Ukrainians also attacked the Kharkiv region which completely surprised the mighty Russian bear

I remember on Sky News  the military analysts were saying " its imprudent that you announce a military campaign so openly " and they were understandably critical of the Ukrainians apparent strategy with this offensive

But that was just part of the successful broader subterfuge and the Russians fell for it 

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

 

@Mamoulian War Ukrainian Nazi army is invincible!  Western toys are gonna destroy Ruskieland, Putin is going to be overthrown by a shadow sect in Russia and what remains of Russia will be a Chinese oil factory with snowcaps.

A reaction worth of GeromanAT on Twitter

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

Also that 3rd Army Corps they rolled up out of something is still around, although I guess that's Kherson.  I guess that is priority.

It is unclear for me, from what I read, where there are deployed, and if they were already deployed in UA. Every source, which I’ve read is claiming, that they are undertrained. So if they would be deployed right now to Kharkiv Oblast, I think, they might have higher casualty rate, than the 1st and 2nd LPR/DPR Corpse around Bakhmut and Soledar in last 2 months. We’ll see. Anyway, UA hit tonight Russian base in Velikiy Burluk (part of GLOC between Belgorod and Kupyansk), which is on the way to Kupiansk, so they probably already reduced at least one “wing” of reinforcements on it’s way.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

On 9/8/2022 at 9:17 PM, Chilloutman said:

and so it begins:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/st-petersburg-officials-demand-vladimir-putin-be-tried-for-treason-in-letter

In Slovak newspaper, it was reported, that Moscow municipal officials followed the suit of the St. Petersburg, and demand Putin removed from his position.

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Mamoulian War said:

In Slovak newspaper, it was reported, that Moscow municipal officials followed the suit of the St. Petersburg, and demand Putin removed from his position.

I wish autocratic leaders could be removed as easily as that but its unlikely this will happen to end Putins draconian and flawed  leadership?

Edited September 10, 2022 by BruceVC

[Mamoulian War]

5 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I wish autocratic leaders could be removed as easily as that but its unlikely this will happen to end Putins draconian and flawed  leadership 

It depends. If enough people start to feel, that their position is threatened by his actions, there is a possible treatment by lead incoming. Or if the new leaders would want to ease the sanctions as much as possible, they send him to Haague. But IMHO this will not gonna happen before the end of this winter. If ever

The interesting thing is, that his gas strategy might be crumbling as well... Hard data from September 8th (The daily gas volume added to reservoirs, has increased by 25%, after Russia turned off Nordstream I):

The image he is talking about can be found here:

https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu/posts/pfbid02wSPJXtAeBDwVEvq8ZamdtLMoYUBLHnzguTrnGbCGPFYdc9SLCQZkPjJRp5aC3jH1l

Google translate:
"GAS: yesterday the EU reservoirs were 83% full / but a paradox!
The image below from Bruegel analysts shows zero deliveries of Russian gas via Nordstream I since September 1st. Russian Yamal has been at zero since May.
PARADOX increase by half a billion m3
In the last 7 days (1.9.-7.9.), stocks in gas reservoirs increased by 2.5 billion m3.
In the previous 7 days (24.8.-31.8.), stocks in gas reservoirs increased by ONLY 2.0 billion m3.
After the shutdown of supplies from Russia via Nordstream I, the pace of gas injection into storage tanks increased, mainly from gas supplies via LNG/NORWAY/ALGERIA and from domestic EU production.
Since the beginning of September, it has continued to decline:
and the price of gas
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
also the price of electricity:
️ https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data#
The entire excellent report (update to 6.9.) is available online:
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports

If you want and know how to support the work on our reports, you can do so at: https://www.patreon.com/databezpatosu
Source for chart and data:
https://gas.kyos.com/gas/
Our overview of the state of reservoirs in Europe and Slovakia:
https://databezpatosu.sk/2022/08/29/plyn-aktualne-statistiky-k-zasobe-kapacite-zasobnikov-a-rocnej-spotrebe/

[bugarup]

The Insider has online thing for current events, Mordor-based sources mostly.

https://theins.ru/politika/254902

No English version though.

 

[Lexx]

They say Izyum is liberated.

[Mamoulian War]

22 minutes ago, Lexx said:

They say Izyum is liberated.

Wagner telegram says, that Russians fled Lyman as well.

EDIT: and another Russian telegram says, that they left Svatove as well, which does not give me any sense, as it is deep in Luhansk Oblast… unless they hope, UA army will run for it from Kupyansk to stretch them thin and attack them later.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Lexx]

Situation keeps moving fast. Man, I sure hope this stuff is true.

 

[Mamoulian War]

What? That’s … hard to believe… on other side, the Deepstate maps, which are very accurate are saying, that Russian Army began global retreat… They do not say if from Kharkiv Oblast only or from other places as well…

Although Doneck Airport is very close to UA Avdiivka stronghold, which holds unbreached since 2014…

[Lexx]

At least feels like the russians are routing hard. Maybe this will be over in November after all.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Situation keeps moving fast. Man, I sure hope this stuff is true.

 

I agree, we must be cautious. Its clear the Ukrainians have had military successes but I do think there is some hyperbole and people being overly enthusiastic 

[Sarex]

And here we come to it https://www.ft.com/content/e5b63797-1aad-46cd-ab30-c1b5d014b140

[Mamoulian War]

There are also some more rumours regarding Luhansk Oblast. Someone even mentioned Lysychansk… WTF??? I am starting to get crazy curious and confused at the same time, what is just a PSYOPS and what is true… Also some more gains in Kherson Oblast have been rumoured…

[Mamoulian War]

Little bit of theorycrafting. Ex US army guy. Interesting read.

 

[Mamoulian War]

And code brown at Russian TV

 

[BruceVC]

55 minutes ago, Sarex said:

And here we come to it https://www.ft.com/content/e5b63797-1aad-46cd-ab30-c1b5d014b140

Yes this is long overdue, Russia has been attempting to blackmail the world through energy, like  gas to the EU, and trying to worsen starvation so its a good move to encourage a Russian oil price cap. But why do we care, who is going to complain if Russian oil is set at  a certain price? It funds Putins War and since we all opposed to that this is good news..less money for Russia 

Here is the link outside of FT 

https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/stock-market/us-warns-of-sanctions-for-buyers-that-ignore-price-cap-on-russian-oil/

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

Serhiy Haidai on his Telegram:

”Governor of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai with a cryptic message: "Lysychnask, a great Ukrainian city. There will be a lot of reconstruction work" “

[Lexx]

 

[Mamoulian War]

Russian MoD official statement:

Our army retreated from Izyum to reinforce fighting in Donbass.

@ComradeYellowlooks like your posting about invincibility of any army has same results   Keep going, Malcador wants to see Crimea in UA hands by the end of November!!!

[Malcador]

Robbing Peter to pay Paul didn't work for Russia, apparently they are now going to assault the south with the forces withdrawn from Kharkiv.  Tried to do this with too little.

Not sure why people keep saying Kherson was a feint (I guess people's ADD minds need an excuse for lack of success immediately), Russians there are a harder fight than elsewhere, so rightly got hit where they were weak - Rosvgardia and ОМОН of all things guarding an area.

People sure are excited, though. Have to say some acting as if surprised NATO weaponry, training and intelligencr actually works.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Malcador

[Lexx]

Yeah, at the very least Kherson acts as a way to keep russian units tied up. I also don't see it as a feint, ukraine did exactly as they told... they just didn't mention the potential additional attack in the north.

[BruceVC]

33 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Robbing Peter to pay Paul didn't work for Russia, apparently they are now going to assault the south with the forces withdrawn from Kharkiv.  Tried to do this with too little.

Not sure why people keep saying Kherson was a feint (I guess people's ADD minds need an excuse for lack of success immediately), Russians there are a harder fight than elsewhere, so rightly got hit where they were weak - Rosvgardia and ОМОН of all things guarding an area.

People sure are excited, though. Have to say some acting as if surprised NATO weaponry, training and intelligencr actually works.

Well mostly its because we want Putins War to epic fail because it represents everything we say we opposed to like attacks on the right of sovereignty and we dont like the killing of civilians, war crimes and we believe in Democracy

So these things matter?

 And yes, you right. NATO does matter and it can effectively support Ukraine ...well hopefully