Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Elerond]

56 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Russians stated their conditions

-----

following headlines hit Reuters:

KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST AMEND CONSTITUTION AND REJECT CLAIMS TO ENTER ANY BLOC

UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES

IF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, THEN RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WILL ‘STOP IN A MOMENT’ - SPOKESMAN

 

If it were up to me, i'd say I take them. 

Save lives, build up economically, put a lot of billateral agreements for trade and exchange, special credit lines, and get people back and let them fpcus on rebuilding

Russians got nothing more than theybhad already, and you only confirm that legally. UA will never enter NATO, but can still buy equipment. 

The most painful part would be not being a part of EU, but bilateral deals can help to go around it, if it is economic deals you want. 

This also needs to be in plce for as long as situation in Kremlin will not be more favorable, and Russians will have a lot to deal with internally in the next couplenof years. 

They can do only bilateral agreements that Russia approves

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Thing is... what guarantees that russia won't just invade again in 5 years? Demilitarizing ukraine smells like a trap to me.

With what? I mean, sure, but within 5 years UA will be much better prepared and I'm sure no one will ignore sucj a build up of forces ever again there. 

[Elerond]

4 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Thing is... what guarantees that russia won't just invade again in 5 years? Demilitarizing ukraine smells like a trap to me.

Like Russian promise to ensure Ukraine territorial integrity if they give up their Soviet era nuclear weapons. 

I am not sure how high Ukraine's trust towards Russian guarantees is these days  

[Elerond]

2 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

With what? I mean, sure, but within 5 years UA will be much better prepared and I'm sure no one will ignore sucj a build up of forces ever again there. 

Russia demands demilitarization of Ukraine

[Chilloutman]

on positive side we might again see wheat on the fields instead of that stupid colza evrywhere

[Darkpriest]

2 minutes ago, Elerond said:

They can do only bilateral agreements that Russia approves

That part I have not seen, if so, then this would be a condition to have russians remove and give them all else. 

Also, why it is important for EU and food production, which utlizies gas for heating on sheltered food production

[Elerond]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

That part I have not seen, if so, then this would be a condition to have russians remove and give them all else. 

Also, why it is important for EU and food production, which utlizies gas for heating on sheltered food production

Russia needs to agree all deals Ukraine makes to ensure that they don't join any bloc

[213374U]

58 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

The most painful part would be not being a part of EU, but bilateral deals can help to go around it, if it is economic deals you want. 

How in the ever-loving **** do people still believe that not being a part of the EU is somehow bad?!

https://www.cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre_Euro_-_Gewinner_und_Verlierer/cepStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf

The EU is great for the German (banks). That's it. For everyone else involved it's both a net bad deal and a loss of sovereignty. Further, why would Ukraine want to become part of the same self-aggrandizing club of spineless losers that left them hung out to dry?

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Russia demands demilitarization of Ukraine

Do we know what it means exactly? The devil is in the details. If it is like the current Finland 'neutral' status or it will end up like one or Japan's defense force, I do not thinknUA would have to worry too much, and again, in case of sucha build up again, I would expect NATO in the Europe to be more ready with more equipment at the ready to be passed on to Ukraine

[Darkpriest]

Just now, 213374U said:

How in the ever-loving **** do people still believe that not being a part of the EU is somehow bad?!

https://www.cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre_Euro_-_Gewinner_und_Verlierer/cepStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf

The EU is great for the German (banks). That's it. For everyone else involved it's both a net bad deal and a loss of sovereignty. Further, why would Ukraine want to become part of the same self-aggrandizing club of spineless losers that left them hung out to dry?

It's a promise of Shengen and extra funding. Ukraine would be the poorest region with most direct net payments recieved, but this is also why a lot of net payers and current net gainers would not be so keen on getting them there. 

[Chilloutman]

Thing is, Putin is not giving anything in return to Ukraine. What is point of signing such deal? To me it seems like Ukraine have not much more to loose anyway

[Mamoulian War]

12 minutes ago, 213374U said:

How in the ever-loving **** do people still believe that not being a part of the EU is somehow bad?!

https://www.cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre_Euro_-_Gewinner_und_Verlierer/cepStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf

The EU is great for the German (banks). That's it. For everyone else involved it's both a net bad deal and a loss of sovereignty. Further, why would Ukraine want to become part of the same self-aggrandizing club of spineless losers that left them hung out to dry?

For Eastern European Countries it is net win. You people in the US somehow do not understand, that if we would not be in EU, we would be now again Russian puppet states, and Putin would be knocking on your doors instead of Ukraine. The only thing which holds Politicians like Orban, Fico and their prosoviet neonazi lackies on leash is the EU hand. Even as shaky as it is, it is still better hand than hand of Putin...

Edited March 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Elerond]

12 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Do we know what it means exactly? The devil is in the details. If it is like the current Finland 'neutral' status or it will end up like one or Japan's defense force, I do not thinknUA would have to worry too much, and again, in case of sucha build up again, I would expect NATO in the Europe to be more ready with more equipment at the ready to be passed on to Ukraine

It means that there can't be any armed forces in the country.  Similar situation as in Finland's autonomic territory Åland/Ahvenanmaa, which Russia still supervises

[Lexx]

Also russia is now on path to be a full nazi state. With all the propaganda and crap they are doing now -- I think it's dangerous to let them just keep going as if nothing happened.

Here are some more thoughts that I found interesting:

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Lexx

[Mamoulian War]

In addition to that, allegedly On March 11th the Russia will be starting their Great Firewall, limiting all of internet traffic outside of Russia. I've seen this on some more or less credible webs, but I have no clue how real is this...

[Darkpriest]

8 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Thing is, Putin is not giving anything in return to Ukraine. What is point of signing such deal? To me it seems like Ukraine have not much more to loose anyway

Not being shelled to oblivion? 

What do you mean giving back? 

This offer is not taking more thannhe already had. The giving back part is not having the land bridge to crimea, and not having the regime change, and having less war time in your country. 

To have a peace, there will need to be some concession to Russia, and this I believe would be a reasonable one, if UA could have any economic deals it wants, but not enter EU directly (can be changed later), not pursuing NATO entry (thats sure as hell), and having something akin to a JDF, where the numbers could be agreed on manpower, equipment type, etc. 

On the side UA could have a really good PE trainigns in high schools and university level, plus some citizen mandatory self defense trainig etc, and NATO cannot back down from more funding and more equipment on the Eastern flank. In case of a build up, UA announces exercise and NATO announces theor ownn exercise and you would bee able to play cat and mouse for ages until regime changes in Russia

[Mamoulian War]

15 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Last week it was Lavrov who was breaking ranks and Gerasimov who was going to be the scapegoat.

Maybe not Pacific Ocean --> Grain of salt, but not too far off.

It is out in public now, and it is apparently the US intel And as someone mentioned here before Shoygu is the sole ethnic non-Russian in the "high command" which makes him more likely scapegoat as Lavrov...

 

 

[Sarex]

13 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

Thing is, Putin is not giving anything in return to Ukraine. What is point of signing such deal? To me it seems like Ukraine have not much more to loose anyway

They have so much more to lose...

[213374U]

4 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

For Eastern European Countries it is net win. You people in the US somehow do not understand, that if we would not be in EU, we would be now again Russian puppet states, and Putin would be knocking on your doors instead of Ukraine. The only thing which holds Politicians like Orban, Fico and their prosoviet neonazi lackies on leash is the EU hand. Even as shaky as it is, it is still better hand than hand of Putin...

"Us people in the US"? My guy, I'm Spanish. My country has been a net receiver of EU funds since forever, and we still came off worse.

And no, post-Soviet Russia showed very little interest in taking territories unlike the Russian empire of yore, until that stupid mother****er Clinton decided it would be a great idea to expand NATO eastward. Would Eastern Europe be a Russian sphere of influence? No doubt about it. Being a German-American sphere of influence isn't much better -- you not only are a serf, there's also a whiff of self-righteousness about the whole thing.

[Darkpriest]

1 minute ago, Mamoulian War said:

It is out in public now, and it is apparently the US intel And as someone mentioned here before Shoygu is the sole ethnic non-Russian in the "high command" which makes him more likely scapegoat as Lavrov...

 

 

Seems some birds are better at chirping than twitter ones?

[Mamoulian War]

1 minute ago, Darkpriest said:

Not being shelled to oblivion? 

What do you mean giving back? 

This offer is not taking more thannhe already had. The giving back part is not having the land bridge to crimea, and not having the regime change, and having less war time in your country. 

To have a peace, there will need to be some concession to Russia, and this I believe would be a reasonable one, if UA could have any economic deals it wants, but not enter EU directly (can be changed later), not pursuing NATO entry (thats sure as hell), and having something akin to a JDF, where the numbers could be agreed on manpower, equipment type, etc. 

On the side UA could have a really good PE trainigns in high schools and university level, plus some citizen mandatory self defense trainig etc, and NATO cannot back down from more funding and more equipment on the Eastern flank. In case of a build up, UA announces exercise and NATO announces theor ownn exercise and you would bee able to play cat and mouse for ages until regime changes in Russia

The no arms deal for Ukraine while Putler in charge would also mean he would eat Ukraine in 10 years without any resistance. So I do understand, that many Ukrainians would prefer to die, than to be under the reigns of Putler later...

[Darkpriest]

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

In addition to that, allegedly On March 11th the Russia will be starting their Great Firewall, limiting all of internet traffic outside of Russia. I've seen this on some more or less credible webs, but I have no clue how real is this...

I've seen some info, that Russians were prepariing for an option of being cut-off from the internet, but i assumed it was some wartime with NATO scenario. A firewall, like a great firewall of China is more probable

[Mamoulian War]

Just now, 213374U said:

"Us people in the US"? My guy, I'm Spanish. My country has been a net receiver of EU funds since forever, and we still came off worse.

And no, post-Soviet Russia showed very little interest in taking territories unlike the Russian empire of yore, until that stupid mother****er Clinton decided it would be a great idea to expand NATO eastward. Would Eastern Europe be a Russian sphere of influence? No doubt about it. Being a German-American sphere of influence isn't much better -- you not only are a serf, there's also a whiff of self-righteousness about the whole thing.

Sorry, for some reason, I was under the impression, that you are one of the American guys around. At least my point stands. Putin has repeatedly stated in Russian State Television his desire to recreate Big Soviet Empire and it's influence. He is actively spending millions of dollars every year funding neonazi parties around Eastern Europe and spreading the disinformation. His war on NATO started before Annexation of Crimea, with trying to completely undermine the support of pro democratic countries, and his biggest achievemet is Orban, who acts as a his Trojan Horse in NATO and Europe...

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

The no arms deal for Ukraine while Putler in charge would also mean he would eat Ukraine in 10 years without any resistance. So I do understand, that many Ukrainians would prefer to die, than to be under the reigns of Putler later...

That's why you have a negotiation table. You see the opening hand, now you have to work out the deals for give and take... and land somewhere in the middle with some parts and capitulate on the others. 

[Mamoulian War]

We'll see, but as a person who's grandad was killed by Russian puppet's government because he did not obey their ultimatums, I very much doubt, that the Russia will keep any of their promises. Their record of breaking anything is pretty big. It is also true for a lot of western deals, but yeah, I know how my family suffered under Russian occupation, and how are they living their life now. And I am saying that as a person, who was in my family considered as Soviet apologist, because I always considered Putin as the least evil of what can happen in Russia... And I was sooo wrong...