Gromnir

National Strategy for Pandemic Preparedness a decade before gate's ted talk. HA! Good Fun!

am willing to agree. can we add proactive to the list? not a demand, but a request. however, am gonna need put our foot down on "sammich." laugh if you will, but we died a bit the day sammich were added to the oed. HA! Good Fun!

maths tell us what the doubling rate in populations so far has been. given realities the roosevelt is nothing whatsoever like a cruise ship, is absence o' reason to doubt continued doubling at the current rate for at least immediate foreseeable future. constant forever? dunno, but only needs be constant 'til hits 4300 or so, which were only requiring 'bout same number o' doublings which had already taken place. extreme short period o' time. slowing rate is what woulda' required hunches. look, you made a terrible analogy to cruise ships. no reason not to own it and move forward. ~2:30 is where the nice lady gives you a tour of racks on an aircraft carrier. social distancing is the only effective countermeasure at this point in time, so... HA! Good Fun!

not a hunch. maths. do the maths. if is doubling from march 24 to april 4 every 2 days when captain crozier and crew were no doubt taking steps to slow the spread and racks don't make social distancing possible, then there is an inevitability 'bout spread 'cause o' the maths and is needing be willful obtuse not to foresee problems... 'cause is not a cruise ship. ok. HA! Good Fun!

... you don't have private rooms on an aircraft carrier. is literal no way to stay six feet apart in racks. whatever else it may be, and regardless o' marine ribbing 'bout their navy brethren, aircraft carriers is not cruise ships. the crew o' a cruise ship is a minority o' total number o' people on ship. virtual all you got on the aircraft carrier is crew and most is sharing living spaces which is at best, cramped and complete wrong for limiting a disease as easily transmissible as covid-19. am suspecting +90% infection on a naval warship is actual very likely. again, recognizing how would be functional impossible to quarantine when you already had +100 confirmed infections, double every 2 days and see where numbers take you. the numbers were doubling less than two days from march 24. notion the crew were gonna sudden get a handle on the covid-19 situation is improbable. also, surge is multiplying death rate o' covid-19. you think there is a shortage o' supplies and ventilators in ny, italian and spanish hospitals? once you hit thousands o' infections aboard the roosevelt, there woulda' been cataclysmic surge issues. aircraft carriers is having robust medical infrastructure nevertheless complete inappropriate for handling a widespread respiratory infection which has a considerable % o' infected require medical attention to recover. am thinking #s is much underestimating severity o' situation and a cruise ship comparison is complete misguided. make analogy just because both is ships? HA! Good Fun!

Inside the ouster of Capt. Brett Crozier excerpts "A half-dozen former top Navy officials said in interviews Saturday that Modly’s intervention was a mistake that they feared would have a chilling effect on commanders and encourage them to suppress bad news that might upset political leaders. "“I think the firing was a really bad decision, because it undermines the authority of the military commanders who are trying to take care of their troops, and significantly negatively impacts the willingness of commanders to speak truth to power,” said retired Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview Saturday." ... "One of the surprising aspects of the Roosevelt drama is how closely Modly became involved in matters that would normally be handled by uniformed officers. Appointed undersecretary with White House support in 2017, Modly has been an aggressive communicator since becoming acting secretary in November, following the firing of Richard Spencer, who had clashed with Trump over the treatment of Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher. Modly has sent out 18 communiques, which he calls “Vectors,” to Navy personnel that mix command advice with folksy references to sports heroes includer pitcher Bob Feller and quarterback Tom Brady." ... "Modly told colleagues that before Crozier’s desperate memo surfaced, he had asked his chief of staff to call the Roosevelt’s captain and give him Modly’s personal cellphone number. Modly also pressed Adm. Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations, on whether he had spoken to Crozier. Gilday apparently preferred to leave such communications to the normal chain of command. "By Wednesday, Modly told a colleague he was thinking of relieving Crozier and that Trump “wants him fired.” He was advised by several current and former colleagues, reportedly including Gilday, that such a dismissal would be unwise, and that the matter was best left to the military." ... "The matter came to a head Thursday. Esper, Milley and Gilday are said to have favored continuing the investigation. But Modly said he wanted to relieve Crozier immediately, and Esper said, “I’ll do what you want.” Gilday argued against the firing but was overruled by the civilians. Baker, the strike group commander, announced the firing later that day. "One retired four-star officer said he was worried about “undue command influence” by Modly. The acting secretary had the authority to sack Crozier but in doing so undermined the uniformed officers who normally oversee such personnel decisions. “This is much bigger than the CO of the Theodore Roosevelt,” he said. “We’ve been working for years to make our commanding officers feel free to speak out about problems.” That openness might now be quashed. "Crozier “was running up an SOS,” said Sean O’Keefe, who served as Navy secretary for George H.W. Bush. “It’s a judgment call, but you have to support the action of a deployed commander.” "Richard Danzig, who served as Navy secretary during the Clinton administration, told me: “If Capt. Crozier carelessly or intentionally jumped abruptly outside of military channels, then the Navy had good cause for removing him. But I doubt it was good judgment to rush to do it at this time.”" HA! Good Fun!

crozier hasn't necessarily lost confidence o' the navy. crozier command weren't removed by navy but by acting secretary of the navy. legal authority o' modly is suspect, period. an acting secretary o' the navy has no more legal authority to relieve command than does jared kushner. is also noteworthy modly replaced the previous secretary o' the navy who lost his job 'cause he public questioned trump inserting himself in an issue o' military discipline. when crozier appealed to chain o' command to take serious his concerns 'bout covid-19 infections aboard ship, there were three positive tests o' sailors aboard the roosevelt. modly's march 24 response to crozier concerns were to remove the three sailors testing positive and then to release a presser where he observed, "this is an example of our ability to keep our ships deployed at sea, underway even with active covid-19 cases." defense secretary mark esper noted situation were under control but that the navy would be sending more testing kits to the roosevelt... soon. crozier sends email on march 28. as of april 3, 100 sailors had tested positive. april 4, with 40% of crew tested, reveals 155 infected. were a 2-day doubling rate of known cases. add only a week to timeline and you got over 1,200 infected 'stead o' 155... and again, 155 is only 40% of the crew tested. replace a couple hundred sailors and get ship decontaminated and back to sea is a serious but not insurmountable task. if literal thousands o' crew were infected... am suspecting years from now, if crozier hadn't written his march 28 email, we would have books and movies vilifying crozier for his gross negligence. failure o' the roosevelt captain's leadership woulda' been arguable the most catastrophic avoidable event in navy history outside a time o' war. am dubious 'bout the contention the navy has lost confidence in crozier. am suspecting the admiralty is looking at situation very different from modly, esper and trump... and gd. we give our command officers a great deal o' individual responsibility. we expect captains o' aircraft carriers to make independent decisions. on its face, this looks as if captain crozier made the right call when faced with the intransigence o' the chain o' command. again, am ok with relieve command, but we would want a serious investigation to happen. yeah, no matter what am suspecting crozier's career is over, and he knew that on march 28 when he sent his email, but am suspecting the navy, the real navy, hasn't lost confidence in him anymore than did the sailors under his command. HA! Good Fun!

since 1812 it has been established law that, "no military or civil officer can command an inferior to violate the laws of his country; nor will such command excuse, much less justify the act. can it be for a moment pretended, that the general of an army, or the commander of a ship of war, can order one of his men to commit murder or felony? certainly not."-- the united states v. jones dereliction o' duty is defined as failure through negligence or obstinacy to perform one’s legal or moral duty to a reasonable expectation. chain o' command and following orders may be evidence o' such dereliction, but ironic, it ain't a defense. enlisted get some insulation from discipline for following orders which ain't obvious illegitimate, but is nevertheless unlawful or immoral. officers get no such benefit. the nuremberg defense, as it has been called in recent decades, may seem valid to many who have served, but it is actual not a legit defense. crozier couldn't rely on chain of command to insulate him from discipline. crozier would not be able to claim he were following orders if men under his command died unnecessarily. HA! Good Fun!

gonna ignore vol wackiness for the moment and make one final observation: am ok with crozier being relieved of duty. is not actual conflicting with what we stated 'bove. pending an investigation, captain crozier should be relieved as one o' the few certainties at this point is his mass emailing. however, if anybody is satisfied with crozier removal as the end o' the issue 'cause he done wrong, then am gonna argue forceful in dissent. got an unusual situation with extraordinary measures taken by the captain o' the roosevelt, and at first glance, crozier's actions would appear to have saved sailor lives as well as insuring the near future viability o' the roosevelt. HA! Good Fun!

specifically were not fired for going to the press. has been stated numerous times by navy brass there is no evidence crozier went to the press. and yeah, he went outside the chain o' command after informing those in the chain o' command produced no results in spite o' a clear and immediate danger to the lives o' his men. the captain knew he would face backlash, likely career ending, for doing what he did. rote recital "that is just not done" ignores asking question why the captain felt compelled to do as he did. given the command o' the roosevelt, crozier were clear being groomed for admiralty-- he knew standards and procedures at least as well as gd, no? so why take extraordinary measures? captain crozier made a choice. weighed his career 'gainst lives o' his men? fired may be legit, but am thinking somebody in the navy better ask more important why questions. fact trump is fixated on the paper trail is so missing the point. leaving evidence is what bothered trump. the President is well aware that any verbal communication may be denied and/or spun. clear written evidence makes gaslighting more problematic. *chuckle* 'course given trump previous shenanigans, he can't very well claim he were leaving the matter o' crozier discipline to the navy as the admiralty would be in best position to decide appropriate discipline for going outside the chain o' command. oh, and "that is just not done," is not a legal actionable, even in a military court. when the first sailor bodies were being stacked in the roosevelt's freezers, crozier's career woulda' been just as over as justifiable blame woulda' been placed with him as captain. what woulda' been his defense at the inevitable court martial? crozier took appropriate measures to inform those in his chain o' command and then followed orders? results woulda' been far worse for crozier if he had stayed quiet and just followed orders. navy and executive branch is not gonna wanna investigate this. too bad. HA! Good Fun! ps as of yesterday, 155 roosevelt sailors has tested positive with less than half the crew being tested. assume 200 actual infected as a low number. what is rate of doubling for a ship such as the roosevelt? in cities such as ny, after social distancing were implemented, rate is 3-4 days. am not an expert, but in cities where social distancing is implemented albeit poorly, doubling rate is 2 days. am thinking we can safe assume best case scenario for roosevelt doubling rate might be 2-3 days, and that is comical optimistic. wait a mere ten days from now woulda' seen +1500 infections and two weeks woulda' been near the entire ship. wait woulda' resulted in one o' the most notorious disasters in navy history and crozier would be blamed.

made split pea soup am not having a specific recipe for this... we use a stock pot, but isn't particular copious amounts so the pot is unnecessary. real reason we use the big pot is it requires less cleanup-- we start by crisping a couple strips o' thick-cut bacon. big pot means splatter from bacon stays in the pot rather than getting... everywhere. we cut up our bacon into smallish pieces ahead o' time, but isn't necessary. remove bacon from pot and then add classic mirepoix and 1ish teaspoon caraway seeds to hot bacon grease in pot. over medium heat, saute veggies 'til translucent. am personal using 'bout 1C each o' fine chopped onion, celery and carrot. however, 'bout 1/3 o' the carrot am not chopping fine 'cause we like healthy sized chunks o' carrots in our "soup." sue us. once veggies is tender, add stock and split peas. chicken or vegetable is good stock choice. we used chicken only 'cause we recent made chicken stock. 6ish C. if you cook w/o a lid, the peas become tender quicker, but you need keep adding fluid frequent. can add water or diluted chicken stock to keep hydrated. we use a 1lb bag o' green split peas-- picked and rinsed. bring to a boil then reduce to simmer. typical takes more than an hour, but after 'bout 45 minutes you may start checking to see if peas is suitably tender. am not certain why peas often take forever to get soft, but is just a fact o' life. don't assume 45 minutes or an hour will be enough time. while soup is simmering, make rye-bread croutons. butter. pan. rye bread cubes. is not rocket science. once peas is tender, add 1ish T worcestershire sauce and a C of frozen peas to your soup. season with salt and pepper to taste and bring to a boil. promptly remove from heat once boiling. yes, frozen peas. may not be able to find any frozen peas in stores at the moment, but give it a try. adds nice color and flavor to what is admitted a kinda bland soup... though the carraway, worcestershire and rye bread "croutons" is gonna make this more flavorful than typical split pea soups. get a bowl and add a bit o' your cooked bacon and rye bread croutons, then pour in as much soup as desired. might wanna consider a bit o' italian parsley fluid will evaporate from your soup almost magical regardless o' how airtight is your container for storing. chances are your remaining refrigerated soup becomes a paste or gel by next day. gonna need add fluid to make edible when reheating on day two or three or four or five. if you do not like caraway and rye bread flavors, skip the caraway seeds and croutons. HA! Good Fun!

Why Trump took another coronavirus test y'know, this is the one issue on which we agree with trump. everytime the President comes in contact with a diplomat or reporter who is covid-19 positive, wh officials scramble to deal with queries 'bout when the President will be tested. why is trump so indifferent to getting tested? 'cause he is paying attention. along with perhaps bats or some other critter, covid-19 is a human specific virus. HA! Good Fun!

this is the actual problem. typically, when calamity strikes, the nation looks to the President and the fed to take the lead. europeans, in particular, is dismissive o' widespread displays o' american patriotism, but is such shared sense o' community which results in americans inexplicable overcoming the practical issues related to decentralization and intentional systemic inefficiency. we usual get a slow start and then US ingenuity and community kicks in surprising quick. unfortunate, we don't have leadership. what we are getting is salesmanship. sell folks what they wanna buy. folks want everything to be ok and they want covid-19 to be under control. trump is selling americans what they want, which is good business, but is getting tougher and tougher to gaslight when death totals and images from overwhelmed hospitals become fixtures in daily news stories. we had months o' warning. were not a, "nobody knew" situation before hospitals started to become overwhelmed. when crisis became obvious, this President, instead o' leading, were focused on selling. US problem is different this time 'cause o' lack o' leadership. the near reflexive rally-to-the-flag response o' Americans were a small and weak compared to previous national crises. too much division and distrust. this time all we got as a guide is fear, disorganization and distrust. we also have dr. fauci, so is not a complete loss, but he is informing as 'posed to leading. 'course rally-to-the-flag is also dangerous. unfortunate, if situation gets bad enough, fear results in same abandonment o' reason w/o any o' the benefits which woulda' come from better organization. is a uniquely fubar situation for Americans. HA! Good Fun!

double but unrelated to previous. anybody else wondering if the models for flattening the curve is considering the quick approaching hurricane season? is gonna be significant portions o' the south where mass evacuations to tight-packed shelters is gonna be needed starting 'round late may or early june. somebody better start planning ahead for hurricane season with a recognition o' covid-19 changing normal response to what is tragic but predictable. HA! Good Fun!

am finding the work-from-home dynamic to be a seamless transition. our boss is just as much a jerk today as he were yesterday-- something 'bout his 2-week trip to the southwest to view wildflower blooms being cancelled admitted has his shorts in a twist, but is always something, right? our productivity is unaffected and is zero chance o' being furloughed. Gov. Kemp's comments on asymptomatic spread of coronavirus stir scrutiny "I'm following the advice of (Georgia Department of Public Health Commissioner) Dr. Toomey, and her and I both mentioned in our remarks, finding out that this virus is now transmitting before people see signs so - what we've been telling people from directives from the CDC for weeks now, that if you start feeling bad stay home, those individuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad," he said. "Well we didn't know that until the last 24 hours, and as Dr. Toomey told me, she goes, 'This is a game-changer for us.'" ... well, ok then. some fun new commercials getting significant air time, even in non battleground states such as CA. have seen the first one multiple times in the last couple days and the only thing we watch on tv is a bit o' news-- pbs with small doses o' fox and cnn just to see what the continuum looks like. converse, we didn't see the mypillow commercial filmed live from the rose garden as have surrendered insofar as trying to watch daily task force briefings. HA! Good Fun! ps haven't seen the virus in the woods commercial. kinda a 2020 knockoff o' the reagan commercial?

am an existentialist and have been silently quoting nietzsche since senior year in highschool when we realized quoting nietzsche aloud results in (deserved) stares and concern. perhaps counterintuitive, the realization it is all meaningless and quite possibly hopeless is what prompted us to get more involved in charitable efforts. why Constitutional Law instead o' something which might, y'know, pay? choice. is our choice and that is what gives meaning to our actions. am not concerned or hopeful 'bout civilization. am not able to ignore people. HA! Good Fun!

Ten Tips From Scientists Who Have Spent Months in Isolation "“The lesson that I learned there that was very useful on the Space Station was you can’t pick your team, and spending any time wishing your crewmates were different is a waste of time,” she says. "Useful words, perhaps, for those of us stuck at home with squabbling roommates or nit-picking mothers-in-law." some o' the advice is obvious-- most is. worth a look regardless. HA! Good Fun!

When Did Girls Start Wearing Pink? people in 1886 were so much more enlightened 'bout gender roles than they are today, which is why there were so much less gender discrimination in the previous century. *insert eyeroll* like it or not, humans are sexual dimorphic. because humans is intelligent, and crazy, notions o' what attracts the opposite sex will change depending on cultural norms, but there will be differences resulting in broadly recognized gender ideals. period. kids is 'bout as smart as an average labradoodle but less smart than an adult border collies. just as the labradoodle learns by watching behavior, so too do children. doesn't matter what daddy says or what kinda doll he gives his child. what matters is how daddy interacts with and treats women, and how all the other adults is interacting with the clear obvious opposite gender. we don't blame the dog if it doesn't learn how to behave 'round people. we blame the dog owner, yes? two dog owners may give exact same commands to their labradoodles and the dog responses will be different depending on what those dogs has observed during and outside o' training. why we expect children to be complete different than labradoodles is baffling. dolls? *snort* this generation likes to get in a twist over the least important stuff while all too often ignoring the genuine vital. HA! Good Fun!

most of us will eventual get the disease. most of us is familiar with people who have comorbidity issues-- who doesn't know somebody with heart disease or asthma? many people we know will need to go to the hospital. if you go to the hospital at the wrong time, when the facility is overwhelmed by surge... is not as if am paralyzed by personal fears. that said, am thinking may people still haven't grasped the magnitude o' this problem. honestly, all you need do is double the numbers assuming such numbers continue to double every 3-4 days. emotion we personal feel is not fear. government(s) (not just the US) had warning this were gonna be a problem for many beyond china borders. because o' widespread fear, and initial government incompetence, we are gonna allow/encourage governments to limit civil liberties which many previous generations fought and died to secure. freaking bedwetting hoarders making situation worse for everybody. etc. am not fearful or even sad, but we sure ain't yet at acceptance 'cause am knowing the worst is ahead and serious lifestyle changes and economic pain is gonna be with us for a long time. best case for a vaccine is a year, which ignores inevitable real world problems that will make production and distribution limited at start. HA! Good Fun!

am thinking after +3 years in the wh, the realization trump behaviours and statements is still resulting in shock and dismay is the real surprise. 'course the issue is not trump. when we attempt to explain the improbability o' trump statements and actions there must need be the recognition the President only indulges in acts o' improbable increasing crudeness, perfidy and pettiness, while displaying a kinda ignorance heretofore unimaginable given his responsibilities, 'cause his base encourages and/or supports him. shake head in sorrow and bafflement at the next trump inanity is, in our estimation, misplaced. real shocker for us is how there is no mendoza line for competence or character demanded by the trump base. none. while am recognizing just how polarized is the nation, the willful indifference o' the trump base still manages to disappoint us. more fool is Gromnir, eh? HA! Good Fun!

watched the road (2009) the other day. only got halfway through the film. *sigh* am recalling better times when we could sit back and enjoy a bit o' vapid saccharine cheer in a movie. HA! Good Fun!

if your neighbor has a vicious dog and you pretend as if the dog is friendly and tame knowing such ain't true, then when you refuse to change your behaviour and get bit by the dog, predictably, you gotta accept some blame. sure, the dog's owner is no less at fault 'cause you are an obtuse dullard, but you need embrace responsibility for your injuries. it were years past that bill gates predicted a china born pandemic. the obama administration warned the incoming administration 'bout the possibility o' a pandemic emerging from china during the transition exercises when trump were moving into the wh. Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic? Diseases like Ebola and avian flu are some of the biggest threats to global security — and lack of funding puts the US at risk many people with expertise saw this coming. HOWEVER, another sars kinda coronavirus were actual one o' the lesser concerns. is literal millions o' coronaviruses and almost none o' them pose a threat to humans. given chinese resistance to consuming less than "fresh" meat, and the huge populations o' china which is not particular spread out 'cross their geography, the dangers o' a pandemic spreading from china were well documented. even so, the likelihood o' a lethal coronavirus making the leap from some wild critter in a market in china or elsewhere, while recognized, were considered a lesser danger. in retrospect, the coronavirus threat were underappreciated, but is easy to point fingers in march 2020. yes, china hid the dangers o' covid-19 from their own people and the world. even so, in january 2020 the US government were getting strong intelligence reports confirming that the predicted nightmare scenario o' a pandemic o' chinese origin were already happening. fact folks here in north america, including kanada and mexico, reacted so slow in spite o' forewarning is arguable criminal negligent. am not giving china a free pass. china badness does not absolve trump or trudeau. oh, and when this is all past, if we as a species pretend as if the danger is past and ignore the future danger from the next global pandemic, then we deserve what lies ahead. even if china closes every wild animal market, their poultry and pork production is gonna continue to represent an existential threat. oh, and americans don't get a free pass from Gromnir. US domestic animal production is gonna need serious attention in the coming years if we wanna prevent a north american born pandemic, but please read the 2017 smithsonian article we linked. we got lucky with covid-19. am knowing how callous that sounds, but covid-19, as bad as it is, coulda' been a far more lethal disease. we are lucky 'cause we are getting a chance to fix our mistakes. blame entire on china may make vol feel better, but if such vindication means US and kanada reacts with insufficient vigor in preparing for the next pandemic, then it is utter misguided and unacceptable dangerous. woulda' kept this in the other thread, but am responding to vol. Trump says he wouldn't have acted differently on coronavirus without impeachment what a cheap and cowardly dodge. surprising he is adopting this argument as it suggests weakness, no? HA! Good Fun!

again, we got a friend who will do the diagnostic bit. with a tail wind and following a moderate warmup, we could hit our friend's house with a thrown baseball from where we live... on a very good day if we were ten-to-fifteen years younger with a bit less arthritis in our shoulder. am relative rural, so nearest merchant with such equipment is a 25-minute drive. ordinarily we would have friend take a looksee (even though he is a st. louis cardinals fan and those guys are all tool bags) and clear code if it were a non-factor, but as hurl observes, the auto repair guys is hurting. HA! Good Fun!

am suspecting we need clear some code and then may go back to driving as usual as there is no symptoms which would alarm us. first thing we did were to check to make sure the gas cap were tight, but am knowing even if such were the problem, address problem alone wouldn't make the engine warning light disappear. being a cheap bastard, ordinarily we would go to a friend who has the appropriate computer hardware/software to identify the code before we even consider taking to a shop. nevertheless, you got a point. with how bad the repair guys is hurting, throw a little business their way couldn't hurt. silver lining: gives us an excuse to drive one o' the buicks for a couple days. HA! Good Fun!