BruceVC

" the most complex operation in history "

You have a habit of making honest, informative but depressing posts I thought my post would make you happy because its some good news around NATO future and shows a commitment from its members And Trumps gone in 4 years so this is more of a long-term " good news " story about NATO

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4en8djwyko @Elerond Some good news because we both support and recognize the significance of NATO This is not a " Trump win " for me, spending more money on NATO is just the right thing to do for all members

But heres what I genuinely dont understand and maybe you answer it Trump was always erratic, inconsistent and cavalier with the truth and he has become worse in his old age and his adoption of SM Truth has just exacerbated that behavior So why is there so much attention from the global media around what he says on Truth? Its never been a good way to understand what he really means but now his Truth comments get discussed and quoted on an almost daily basis and many people respond to it as if its US policy when often its just his ramblings In South Africa we literally have these "serious " media discussions around what Trump said on Truth Is it just about drama or embarrassment or do you think people are not able discern the difference between Trumps SM rants and what is a realistic policy discussion? If I was a MAGA strategist and I had Trumps confidence I would tell him to immediately stop using Truth for any updates and go back to traditional WH updates and press conferences His Truth usage is becoming a meme and a joke

And thats a huge mistake for Iran because now we have no way of monitoring Irans Uranium enrichment Another Israeli\US airstrike or military campaign is almost guaranteed

Why dont you and @Hurlshort play Dune together? Your time zones are perfectly aligned and you live in the same state?

There is so much consideration around main quests, side-quests and companion side quests I was thinking about Nocticula's profane gift but I dont like the idea of mind control\influence and then I was worried how that would impact my Arueshalae Romance arc so I declined But the adult themes and creativity around writing in these themes is probably the best I have ever experienced in any RPG But I put my foot down, killing all the servants seemed extreme and egregious even in the interests of Romance My liberal code won the day

It still surprises me that we take seriously these types of Trump SM comments We know he often says things on Truth that are just his ramblings or personal opinions and its often exaggerated or untrue The truth is the 3 sites were struck by the US " bunker bombs " but we dont know the full extent of the damage I doubt they were obliterated but damage was done and also this was the first time the US used these bombs in a war Here is the type of link I would reference around this but I wouldnt be concerned about anything Trump says on Truth unless its confirmed https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9r4q99g4o

So it doesnt appear Iran ever agreed to a ceasefire, Trump really got this one badly wrong

The achievable Israeli objective was Iran abandoning its nuclear program This war became the predictable example of a deluge of fake news and SM hyperbole made worse by Trumps inconsistent Truth ramblings and Irans grandstanding but this objective can be reached through a ceasefire agreement, its the only realistic way to do this It was never about regime change or a US\Israeli land invasion So the real question if the ceasefire holds is will Iran abandon it nuclear program and I assume only the IAEA will be able to monitor this But if nothing changes around Irans nuclear program then the Israeli military campaign was a failure I cant imagine why Iran wouldnt agree, they are completely vulnerable to future airstrikes and this gives them an opportunity to save face without the war dragging on

This was a conundrum for me, it was a tough one because I Romanced her and I always thought the spirit was driving her dark side So it ended up with her killing her father, he was fine with it, but I put my foot down with her killing the servants And she accepted that, Kanie its a grey world of good vs evil in the backdrop of where WoRT is set I have had to make some compromises in the interests of stopping and ending the greater evil and threat which is ultimately about the Worldwound and defeating Deskari and Baphomet but Nocticula I can work with Like I mentioned its the nuance with the choices during the game that I am really appreciating

Im 180 hours into WoRT and Im busy with all the final quests and choices before I complete the last quest at Threshold As I have mentioned in previous posts this game is one of my favourite party based RPG of all time Its impossible to list everything I love about this game but in summary deep and complex main narrative with a myriad of different choices around what Mystic Path to take and how that influences dialogue options engaging and worthwhile companion side-quests, the best in any RPG I have ever played. I ended up finally Romancing Arueshalae and accepting Camellias murderous nature ....no ones perfect very complex character and class customization combat is the best part of the game with all different strategies I love the Crusader management and mini-battles. Its a nice break from the normal RPG progression lots to explore and many side-quests the length of the game, I appreciate how long it is What an RPG, I wish we had a commitment for Pathfinder 3 from Owlcat

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-meet-sunday-over-us-strikes-iran-2025-06-22/ Russia, China and Pakistan are bringing a UNSC resolution forward for an immediate end to the Israeli and US military campaign on Iran This will be as successful as the numerous UNSC resolutions raised for Russia to end its war in Ukraine And it always cringe to hear Russia grandstanding about how " terrible invasions and wars are " Russia just needs to stay out of any commentary around Iran, they have ZERO credibility on this " concern "

The reality is now the US is actively involved in this war, it was always possible The real question now is how this will negatively impact Trump in the midterms because this will fracture the MAGA base So its a good move for the Dems and the midterms

https://www.newsweek.com/iran-nominates-trump-nobel-peace-prize-he-threatens-neighboring-iran-2088699 Here is a good news story about Trump , unexpected but appreciated in the context of ending wars Pakistan is nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for the important role the US played in ending the recent India vs Pakistan war As stated by us in the Security Council, Pakistan favours a peaceful resolution to the crisis through dialogue and diplomacy," the Pakistani Mission said. "We hope that the situation will not escalate militarily, and tensions will be diffused amicably through diplomatic engagement." "President Trump has distinguished himself as a peacemaker," the Mission added. "His statesmanship and successful diplomatic intervention with Pakistan and India played a crucial role in bringing about a ceasefire between the two countries in May 2025." I think its an important reminder of the nuance and complexity of Trumps presidency and how he is seen in a much more positive light by countries outside of the typical media opinions and views we consume that can influence our views Its a pity Trump feels the need to gloat about these types of things on Truth but thats his hubris, insecurity and unhealthy obsession with SM attention. Its not how you want a US president to conduct themselves And @Malcadoryou will find this interesting, Im not sure if you aware but the US has been instrumental in a ceasefire in the DRC https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-deal-democratic-republic-congo-rwanda-war-mineral-resources/ Hopefully it maintains because its good for Africa and the region

Here is a good analysis about the reasons behind Irans military failures and current situation The Russian military expert Ruslan Pukhov wrote a great article about Iran. Subtext of the article is about Russia. Imitation of Power Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov on the Causes of the Crisis of Iranian Defense Policy The first days of the Iran-Israel war clearly demonstrated the deep crisis of Iranian defense policy and building of defense. The reasons for this crisis are obvious and make the whole story very instructive. The basis of the crisis is the subordination of foreign and defense policy not to practical, but to chimerical ideocratic goals, for the implementation of which Iran does not have enough (and will never have enough) economic, military and technological resources. Instead of really promoting its influence (which it did not have), Iran was largely engaged in its imitation. Moreover, this imitation suited both the ruling elite of Iran, allowing it to sell this as a "great power" to the Iranian "deep people", and the numerous implementers of this policy in Iran, first of all, of course, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC, representing a typical oprichnina, naturally turned, in fact, into a semi-mafia organization interested in the constant expansion of its political and economic influence, in the development of the maximum amount of state resources. As a result, the IRGC has effectively “privatized” Iran’s foreign and defense policy, and to a large extent “privatized” the Iranian state itself, subordinating its policy to the narrow and corporate interests of the IRGC’s top brass. As a result, the example of Iran has become a clear example of how an attempt to portray and pursue a great power policy without the corresponding level of resources and development only leads to an imitation of a “great power”, to the construction of Potemkin villages in foreign policy, military construction, etc. This allows for some time to successfully bluff, intimidate, and trade influence (within the country and abroad), but this system falls apart as soon as someone seriously decides to test its strength. This is exactly what we are seeing. In an effort to compete with the US-Israel coalition in the Middle East, Iran has invested colossal resources in allies and satellites in recent decades - primarily Shiite countries and movements (primarily the notorious “Axis of Resistance”). At times, such a policy seemed successful and felt like a serious challenge, but as soon as Israel seriously took on such key elements of the Axis as Hezbollah and Hamas, it quickly and successfully neutralized them. The Iranian intervention in Syria also ended in disaster. As a result, Iran's colossal expenditures on all sorts of proxies went down the drain and all Iranian "influence" was quickly nullified by the powers that be in a real clash. In the military sphere, Iran was engaged in imitation of the construction of supposedly high-tech armed forces, while not having a sufficient level of technological and industrial development for this. As a result, when real modern technologies (Western and Israeli) came to the battlefield, the Iranian armed forces suffered a fiasco. Well, yes, they hit Israel with missiles several times, but even Saddam Hussein could do that in 1991. The accumulation of a diverse arsenal of, as we can see, not the most sophisticated and not highly accurate ballistic missiles has become the main Iranian achievement, and this arsenal could not even remotely compete with the power of the modern Air Force. It is now clear that many Iranian weapons, even those that looked quite modern, were built on primitive and low-quality components, because Iran had nowhere to get modern ones from. From the very beginning of the military conflict, Iran in many respects turned out to be an archaic "paper tiger". This does not mean that it is doomed to complete defeat in a clash with Israel or even the United States - backward and archaic societies have demonstrated a high degree of resilience in such situations many times in history. However, from the point of view of its long-term national interests, Iran needs a radical change in the guidelines of its foreign and defense policy, bringing this policy into line with its real interests, capabilities and resources. Among other things, an important element of this must apparently be a conscientious refusal to give up the suitcase without a handle in the form of the Iranian nuclear program. If this does not happen, Iran will be doomed to repeat catastrophes and further degradation. It is unclear whether the Iranian anachronistic regime will be able to undergo such a transformation. In fact, this is the main issue of both the current war and Iranian policy in general. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7801167

Thats fine, as long as you not suggesting that BBC doesnt cover Israel killing civilians or targeting civilian infrastructure then we agreement That was the impression you created when you said " There's a pattern there about who's hospitals have value and who's don't"

Nice, I played Arcanum for the first time a few months ago Its the last CRPG from that era I hadnt played and I had a great time The combat mechanics weren't great but the overall narrative, side quests, class and skill choices and different ways of solving quests were brilliant. And the whole map exploration I really enjoyed Overall I had a very positive experience

Not really, Trump is trying to avoid bombing Iran because then the US is actively involved in the war as opposed to just defending Israel if attacked so the 2 weeks is about giving the EU and other types of diplomacy a chance to end the war And the US getting actively involved is very unpopular for several MAGA groups because Trump committed to " keeping the USA out of unnecessary wars " So its about political blowback within the USA for Trump and people like Tucker Carlson is opposed to US bombing Iran so it could create fractures within MAGA support And this decision is made worse by Trumps predictable inconsistent rants and comments on Truth about what he is thinking I wish Trump would stop commenting on Truth, it adds to the confusion of what he means and is thinking and then his spokespeople have to explain what he means...its tiresome

Im not sure what your point really is, the BBC covers the IDF heavy handedness and its killing of civilians constantly and consistently and that includes hospitals being targeted in Gaza No idea what you mean by " There's a pattern there about who's hospitals have value and who's don't" because thats not what the BBC does This was just from a 30 second search of the hits from "BBC israel bombs gaza hospitals " https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c4g28z483eko https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr7l123zy5o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mg4ld5951o

Yes conventional wars need more than airstrikes if the objective is to occupy a country but this is about getting Iran to change a policy direction and its not about regime change as much as Israel would love that Serbia was bombed twice because of Kosovo and Bosnia and as far as I know there was no NATO invasion but the airstrikes had the desired outcome and Serbia changed direction And words like existential often get misused by different leaders to justify military actions, for example Russia never faced any existential threat from Ukraine that justified the invasion Irans leadership can claim abandoning there nuclear program is existential but they well known for fiery rhetoric and grandstanding. This is the first time since the Iran vs Iraq war that they have been directly attacked in a war so I question if they will maintain that stance facing regular airstrikes It will be very difficult for Iran to continue its nuclear program if there nuclear sites are destroyed or damaged or they getting constantly bombed And I have to assume that any ceasefire would include full access by IAEA to Iran to confirm they have ended the program because how else would you monitor the agreed on ceasefire? So Iran would have to agree to that and then the IAEA would report on that But of course if Iran doesnt agree to that then the Israeli military campaign will continue " Why now " is a good question. Israel has always considered Iran and its proxies there main enemy in the ME and Iran considers Israel its main enemy in the ME And after 7 October Israel and Netanyahu have a legitimate reason to act around Israel's security which is exactly what they done as far as Iran and its proxies is concerned which is why we have seen the dismantling both directly and indirectly of Irans proxies that include both Hamas, Hezbollah and Assad Of course the Israeli far right have also hijacked this legitimate security concern around the heavy handedness of how the Palestinians have been treated and the ongoing war in Gaza But Iran and its nuclear program is still a threat to Israel outside of the Palestinian conflict and thats what this military campaign is about I also think Israel was surprised how relatively easy it was to defeat Irans proxies and also how they were able bomb Iran a few months ago, I think most of us over-estimated Irans anti-aircraft defences So in summary Israel decided the best way to end the threat of a nuclear Iran is to attack Iran directly and force them change course as opposed to waiting for negotiations and not having accurate information around how far Iran really is around enriching Uranium

Yes, the current US government is the most pro-Israel military government we have seen in ages And the next US president will have different views on supporting Israel around Iran But I assume this war will be long over by then, I cant imagine any country continuing a war where its getting bombed on a daily basis and Iran has lost air supremacy so it has no way of stopping Israel's airstrikes Based on what evidence? This is a unique situation where a country is getting attacked because it wants to get nukes and the way you end this war is agreeing to end that nuke program I gave you an example earlier around Hezbollah and I remember at the time of Israel launching its campaign into Lebanon some people were saying "Israel is going to annex Lebanon and this is going to be a long and complicated and unwinnable war for Israel " and yet that war ended the moment Hezbollah agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel which was exactly what Israel wanted to achieve And this Iran war is no different, Iran can agree to end its nuke program and allow unrestricted access to the IAEA who can monitor this commitment. You dont need to invade or occupy Iran to achieve this military objective Why turn something simple into something complicated? Regime change would be a different story, that would be unrealistic and complicated

Let me ask you a different question Forget Israel and the current Israeli vs Iranian hostility Considering the reality of Shia\Sunni regional tension do you support Iran getting nukes in whatever timeframe? Do you believe any new country should be able to get nukes? Would you support Ukraine getting nukes knowing the regional tension with Russia this will create?

Yes the long-term problem of Iran and Israel ever being friends and not being hostile to each other is not likely at least with the current governments on both sides But again and I dont mean to keep repeating myself but this current military campaign can and will end if Iran capitulates and abandons its nuclear program Im not sure why anyone thinks this is such a difficult objective to achieve? Its like the Israeli military campaign into Lebanon, that ended when Hezbollah agreed to stop firing rockets into Israel, it was a relatively easy objective to understand and achieve Here's an interesting link about the military benefits with Israel having air supremacy over Iran https://time.com/7294919/israel-air-supremacy-tehran-iran/ The only reason I can think of that would change Israel achieving its stated objective is Iran is able to do massive damage to Israel with its missile counter-offensive and then Israel also agrees to end this war because of the cost to them?

But the BBC article is based on what the IAEA has already said https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/06/1164291 "The draft for Thursday’s resolution highlights serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors. Tehran has “repeatedly” been unable to explain and demonstrate that its nuclear material was not being diverted for further enrichment for military use, the draft text maintains. Iran has also failed to provide the UN agency with “technically credible explanations for the presence of [man-made] uranium particles” at undeclared locations in Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad, it continues. “Unfortunately, Iran has repeatedly either not answered, or not provided technically credible answers to, the agency’s questions,” IAEA chief Grossi said on Monday. “It has also sought to sanitize the locations, which has impeded Agency verification activities.” According to Mr. Grossi, Tehran has stockpiled 400 kilogrammes of highly enriched uranium. “Given the potential proliferation implications, the agency cannot ignore [this],” he told the UN agency’s governing board on Monday. " And I already mentioned Im not taking seriously what the US or Israel says but we should all take seriously what the IAEA says. Iran has a history of not complying with the IAEA and trying to hide aspects of its nuclear program