Zoraptor

Southfront is very biased towards Russia. They've done some pretty good documentary type film reporting, but it certainly isn't disinterested reporting. There's no doubt that the US is stealing oil though, and it's very likely to classify as big P Pillage (ie a war crime). The only argument is whether it's the Kurds/ SDF controlling it. Which it also fairly clearly isn't because, ironically, a lot of it is being sold to the same Turkish militias that have been ethnically cleansing Kurds in Turkish occupied Syria. A bunch of makeshift refineries were definitely blown up last week by Russia at Sarmada and Al Qah. There isn't any oil production in those areas and you can be fairly sure that it isn't the PYD selling it to their enemies to finance attacks on themselves and the Turkish occupation. Likely Erdogan's son was still taking a cut as he had when he was trading oil with ISIS, and the oil trade is a way to curry favour with/ pressure Erdogan himself.

You've just described every oil sheikdom in the middle east. Except, maybe, Oman. OTOH, Norway has a trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund thanks to its oil that means that the whole country could go on holiday for literally years if it wanted to. If there's one country that cannot be accused of squandering its oil wealth it's Norway.

Shadow Tactics expandalone coming from Mimimi.

I'm sure Sarex will be surprised to find out that Serbia is part of the EU now. For that matter, the EU itself would be surprised to find that Serbia is part of it.

The EU briefed on the basis that they doses were intended for the UK, there's no doubt of that as it can be read in literally every story about the '29 million dose cache', not just an Italian Scum equivalent. Even the use of the word 'cache' is clearly designed to be emotive and set a specific narrative- it was clandestinely and deliberately hidden- since it was used instead of a neutral word. There was zero evidence that that was true, all they had was speculation and a desire to make anyone apart from them the villain of the piece. Let's be frank here. Fundamentally, the EU could have ordered AZ vaccine earlier than the UK did and avoided all of this, but they didn't. That's the core issue, everything else is window dressing- or faecal matter thrown at a fan. Not ordering early was a deliberate, calculated position made 100% voluntarily by the EU and in retrospect, but also to many at the time, utterly stupid*. They only ordered AZ doses after Sanofi had failed, and well after the UK had ordered theirs. If Sanofi had succeeded and AZ failed would the EU let the UK queue jump to cover up their failure? Not on your fricking nelly; they'd be snickering into their sleeves about the rosbifs backing the wrong horse and how terribly terribly tragic it was that the UK wasn't in the EU any more so missed out. The EU deliberately gambled with their strategy and lost; now the toys are coming out of the cot and they're resolved to fix things by threatening to just grab as much of the stake as they can back unilaterally. How did they gamble? They tried to cheap out by not ordering enough doses under the belief they could leverage better deals, and they backed the wrong horses for something like 350 million doses worth; and having done that they've whined like nothing else in existence in the hope that they'd be allowed to queue jump over the UK that ordered 100 mln doses, early. They're now threatening to steal doses on the basis of 'fairness'. Fairness that would never in a million years have been in evidence if the roles were reversed. To quote the great philosopher Scott Steiner again: "no simpy". 100% a crisis manufactured in the EU, by the EU. To be fair, partly by bad luck, but then they were also the only bloc that managed to back two losing horses for the large majority of the vaccines they ordered because they were European. Ironically the only successful Euro vaccine is one most people think is actually American... *even if Sanofi and CureVac succeeded (on time for CureVac, since at least it recently passed Phase 2 unlike Sanofi) they'd still only ordered enough doses for 1 per citizen. And if you're altering reality to make them succeed then that reality might have the BionTech vaccine not work in which case they're down 100 mln doses again. OTOH we've ended up with 4 doses per citizen here, despite having no covid, because we ordered early from multiple vendors. The EU could have done that but they cheaped out, so now they'll just steal other countries' vaccines while still claiming the moral high ground.

Yeah, the problem is not deficit spending, it's governments forgetting the second part of Keynes' recommendation. Borrow in a recession to stimulate growth, then pay back the borrowing in the good times to prepare for the next recession. There are more votes in cutting taxes so you get deficit spending in a boom too. The Keynesian approach is definitely better than the disastrous austerity approach tried in some places which neither significantly reduced debt nor got the economy growing.

They've told the press to stop saying they were going to Britain- and the stated destination on some packages was Belgium. That's certainly enough to say that they weren't going to Britain, which was the initial accusation. Expecting an out and out admission or apology from the EU is not realistic in the current climate, they will just hope that everyone forgets about it. Approval for Halix has also been sought. As Elerond mentioned it's under EMA consideration now. The Russian approach was to do bilateral deals eg with Hungary, rather than approach the EU. That approach was definitely done as a 'wedge' issue, but it wouldn't have been a wedge issue if the EU rollout had been halfway decent and not left countries scrambling. Multiple countries will be making Sputnik pending approval including some with significant capacity like Italy. Adenovirus vaccines are not difficult to make, and if you can make the AZ one you can make Sputnik. The only complication is it using 2 different vectors instead of one, but then that's why its efficacy is a decent amount higher than others and only just behind the far more expensive Pfizer/ Moderna.

As the article I quoted stated, the EU has admitted that the doses were not going to the UK. I disagree with the article on it being the EU's most embarrassing day though, even limited to covid related stuff. The day they decided to preferentially order 300 mln Sanofi vaccines sight unseen was far more embarrassing- though technically I guess that embarrassment was spared until it outright failed Phase 2 trials and is now due in 2022 at the earliest. That is, of course, why they were scrambling to order Astra Zeneca doses so late in the piece.

Another interesting story coming out of the EU: 29 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine found at Italian plant. The EU briefed the press as it being a secret cache hidden away and about to be clandestinely sent to the UK. Turns out it was actually about to be sent to Belgium for bottling. via the Torygraph.

The Pentagon is Very Bad at Memes. And the image in question is... While those intrepid Russkies were hacking Solarwinds one of the groups that was meant to be defending the US from such things was spending 23 fricking days creating and generating a 20 page report on one of the most tepid and forgettable- or not, since it's so bad- maymays in the history of all creation. To be fair, they got half way there and did manage to make someone look uncool online and I can readily imagine someone being yelled at after their boss has seen it in a powerpoint presentation; it's just that neither would be the Russian hackers.

Lots of moves towards blocking vaccine exports. Apart from the US (already in place) and Europe's moves towards it India has also implemented a ban as of today. Which will, ironically, further cut the EU's supply since the EU had whined its way into getting supplies that were meant to be going to low income countries- and are again now they're staying in India. Attempts to increase production by waiving patents are also being blocked by the usual suspects- UK, Europe, US. Ironically- or not- the countries that have been accused of 'vaccine diplomacy' have supported patents being waived despite that effecting their vaccines as well*. Indeed, mRNA vaccines won't get manufactured by 3rd parties even without patent protection since they're too complicated and require specialised equipment, storage and supplies; it will be the 'vat grown' ones that will be. Ironically, the Oxford vaccine would have been open source if not for Bill Gates insisting that it not be.

I guess that means we'll get an admission that an Israeli F35 was hit in Syria in... 20 years time then.

It appears that as demanded by the British press- at least prior to everyone piling on their vaccine instead of the Russian one- Vladimir Putin has had his first Sputnik shot. Those two ought to do something at least. The big problem is that the only way to get the money to buy a house is to already own one- or have your parents own one- since you can borrow against both. A lot of property speculators in NZ chain purchases and have multi million dollar mortgages so are cash poor despite being asset rich and owning multiple million dollar properties. They absolutely rely on the tax breaks because they simply don't have the cash to pay tax, annual tax bills of 30k are going to be extremely hard to pay. Inevitably they will try to pass the cost on to their tenants, but they simply won't be able to make 200$ p/w increases to cover costs. Then, when they come to sell they'll have to pay ~200k as a lump sum. I'm not a massive fan of our government's previously feeble response, but these measures should have the intended effect. Won't send the investors to debtors prison, but applies a certain cost for their rampant speculation, over leveraging and consistent rent gouging. That piece is literally hours old, the announcement was less than a day ago.

My sister lives in Australia, she'd literally have to sell both her houses there to buy a smaller one here, and take a wage cut of 20% too. Realistically the only way- literally- to buy a house is if you already own one and can borrow against that or at very very least aren't paying rent, hence the biggest buyer sector at the moment is- literally- people who already own 6+ houses and can leverage those properties for borrowing. If you're trying to buy a house you're spending ~25k on rent if you're lucky, need to save ~20k to keep up with the deposit's appreciation alone, and that on a median wage of 70k, before tax. For the typical person that leaves 5k to spend on everything else. Then they wonder why the economy is tanking despite all the money printing and low interest rates. Actually, there was some progress today. If you were a property investor you could (lol) write off borrowing costs including interest against tax- which of course a normal mortgagee could not. That has been removed, but up until literally today if you were a property investor you typically paid, literally, no tax on either those 30% p/a capital gains nor on the rent you charged the serfs renting your land. Oh yeah, coincidentally, the average number of properties owned by the average New Zealand MP is 3+ even without counting those hidden away in trusts etc- and there is a grand total of one MP in parliament who doesn't own a house.

Mad Max released. (Not the linux version, as Feral hates DRM free)

Dunno, his foreign policy strikes me as pretty close to what you'd expect if there was another/ 3rd term Obama/ Biden/ Kerry administration, with a few exceptions. There's lots of virtue signalling to show how different he is from Trump, not much actual action and mostly a rhetorical return to status quo ante, and we got some pretty obvious stupidities like the- somewhat- ludicrous statement that MbS would not be sanctioned for Khashoggi because "the US does not sanction foreign leaders". Which is news to a lot of foreign leaders, and precisely the sort of thing that Obama got himself into trouble with (eg his 'red line' in Syria, which turned out to be a kind of hazy squiggle). Stopping support for genocide in Yemen isn't exactly the bravest move in the world, and is far more of a return to Obama's policy rather than a punishment. The big difference is probably Iran, where Biden has actually maintained Trump's policy over Obama's, while saying he isn't. Despite the US abrogating the treaty completely unilaterally and having admitted Iran was following it Biden wants Iran to return to full compliance before the US does, and renegotiate it too. That's absolutely 100% what Trump's policy was, to all practical purposes- Iran must continue to keep following the treaty we broke, while we ignore it and add multiple new conditions as and when we want. Pretty stupid approach if he actually wants the deal reinstated in any form, as Iran has elections in a few months that the reformists will lose spectacularly having had their cornerstone achievement crapped all over by the US like a coeliac eating a wheat vindaloo. Good luck getting anything at all out of a conservative government, but then that may well be the idea, so hands can be thrown up and claims can be made that Iran rejected the deal the US reneged on. Should also be said, for all the treaties Trump reneged on only a very few- one?- have been reinstated by Biden like Paris. JCPOA, INR, Open Skies etc have all gone bye bye permanently, by all indications.

Even if it were a serious request I wouldn't even consider it momentarily. Covid is one thing, but anyone wanting to avoid that is infinitely better going to, and may Allah smite me for saying the word, Australia. I couldn't in good conscience advise anyone to move to NZ until they fix the housing market appreciating at 30%+ p/a (who would a thunk no capital gains tax and zero interest rates would result in that? Only those with a functioning brain and IQ above ambient temperature, which apparently describes no one at Treasury or in Government here) and at 20x the average annual wage, before tax. Rents up 30%, wages up 1%, and 'experts' are baffled why the economy is in recession despite the housing bubble. Easy answer, 50% of the population has had their disposable income reduced by having to pay rent increases which are then used to repay the banks rather than being spent in actual businesses. So stimulus, much economic activity etc etc. Oh well, you know what they say; there is only one type of person who believes in infinite growth in a finite system: economists, politicians, and idiots and they'll ride the bubble all the way down to oblivion.

Yeah, the problem with many of the DC movies seems to be that they're conceived when the current zeitgeist is one thing, then finished when it's moved on to something else. Then it tests badly with audiences, and tinkering begins to hammer a square movie into round perceived audience appeal. So you end up with something like Suicide Squad, a disjointed non sensical mess that would almost certainly have been better either without or with much less tinkering. OTOH WW84 probably needed some more supervision to hammer out its issues, but didn't get it. You probably have to blame the executives for that, since they're ultimately the ones in charge but it certainly is a bit damned if you do, damned if you don't.

They say that because their options are (1) Russia did it! or (2) the pilot got pressured into landing by the President's staff, and against the advise of the Russian ATC, and flew far too low. One is Russia's fault, the other is due to their President's intransigence and pilot's mistakes. Easy choice to make, especially if you're twin brother to one of the dead. For anyone wondering: 2010 Smolensk air disaster. There's a pretty good episode of Mayday/ Air Crash Investigation on it too which I can recommend.

They don't have to agree on everything. Even when they were on good terms there were disagreements, they were just kept in house a lot more than under Trump. The US and EU have different interests, but that doesn't mean they have to be enemies. In the long term that there will be a permanent split, but that's just the inevitable nature of history. In the end the EU is deeply risk averse with a lot of decision making inertia, and in the short to medium term a split from the US is way too risky. As always it depends on the initiative- if the US was relying on say Britain or Poland to push their agenda, alone, then they were never in a great position anyway, when the EU relies on consensus for many decisions. You can still be friends- or at least friendly- with countries that you disagree with on some things and both blocs still have plenty of common interests and a lot invested in maintaining the general status quo of world affairs. End of the day the EU and US supported each other on the vast majority of things even under Trump, it was just that the differences started being made public.

So, the EU had been threatening to block vaccine exports to the UK, including making (false) allegations that the UK has an export ban- in actuality they just got a guaranteed delivery contract instead of the EU stupidly going for a 'best effort' one because they thought they'd have domestic offerings. The response from Pfizer has been to point out that they receive critical ingredients from the UK, and any reciprocation of ban would see the EU with way less vaccine rather than more. Pretty much sums up the overall competence of the EU's response- make an empty threat backed up with outright lies, when the vaccine you're relying on requires ingredients from the country you're threatening. And they seemingly didn't have a clue that that's the case despite vaccines being perhaps the single most important acute need strategic resource on the planet at the moment. The previous crop of EU appointees weren't exactly inspiring except the thoroughly competent Mogherini, but the current crop are making them look like Solon.

Yep. A permanent break could have happened if Trump had been reelected but still would have required something like NATO breaking up to add that permanence. As it is it's pretty easy for a Biden US and Europe to go back to status quo ante Trump even by something as simple as not actively sniping at each other and keeping disagreements in house more.

An online gaming tournament between various Presidents and Prime Ministers would certainly give new meaning to the term Leader Board. The thought of Jacinda Ardern gibbing noobs while spamming #BeKind and #Aroha in chat fills me with a certain amusement. Though if rumours are true Kim Jong Un would almost certainly win even without the Best Korea stereotype.

Funnily enough the reason for offering the debate is exactly the same as the reason for Biden calling Putin a 'killer', ie playing to the audience. Make yourself look strong, and your enemy look weak. Biden draws a line under perceived Trumpian weakness towards Russia, Putin knows that Biden won't debate him... back for round 2 in a couple of years/ months/ weeks. Any other interpretation of either man's position is fabulism. And no, no one underestimates a mark's ability to be duped, especially when they're hearing something they desperately want to be true. Hence people actually believing- well OK, to forestall argument, on this forum just posting articles and defending such articles literally for years, purely as an academic exercise that expressed no personal belief- that Russia would be bankrupt in 6 months back in 2014.

As speculated on in the previous thread Turkey is now moving to ban the Kurdish HDP party in the wake of their disastrously inept attempt to increase Erdogan's popularity and maybe as a secondary aim rescue some prisoners from the PKK. Strange, 'real' Kurds are happy in Turkey and don't support the terroristler PKK because they have Kurdish language TV, according to Erdogan, yet the parties they vote for should also be banned for... supporting the PKK. Hmm.