None of those titles would do anything for the Japanese market, though. They'll probably still end up eating up the PS3 (despite the open pricing for the premium one, suckers) for MGS4, FFXIII, blah blah. I still don't see the 360 picking up any steam in Japan.
The Wii will probably be pretty popular in Japan. The DS seems to be doing ridiculously well over there, and it shares a similar philosophy. Whether the console/handheld market difference will make such a difference remains to be seen. Will the Japanese opt for the PS3 for the graphics? It didn't help the PSP, if anything. We'll see. Whether the PS3 being larger than the Xbox has an effect will be interesting to note, as well.
The main issue for the Wii is third-party support. Kojima might be doing MGS4, but he's already stated that the Wii is the system he's most interested in working on as a designer. Then there's FFXIII. Will it be a system seller? Of course. Will Dragon Quest be on the PS3 as well? There's already a DQ spinoff coming for the Wii, and the series has historically simply gone to the system that's most popular (and the series has never been about graphics anyway).
I can't see the PS3 flop, but I don't think it deserves to lead the market, either. That price is simply pretentious drivel ("it's probably too cheap, too!!!"), especially since it's due to imposition of BS like Bluray on gamers. Gamers didn't ask for it, but now they have to pay for it.