Hoops 13-14

[ShadySands]

Disappointing game for Pfphoenix and just when I was beginning to hope again

[Leferd]

Durant was pretty spectacular. But what killed the Warriors (aside from poor team defense tonight) was missing 15 free throws. Their 3pt% (.593) was higher than their FT% (.553). Terrible.

[Keyrock]

Durant was pretty spectacular. But what killed the Warriors (aside from poor team defense tonight) was missing 15 free throws. Their 3pt% (.593) was higher than their FT% (.553). Terrible.

Yeah, almost 60% 3pt% is fantastic, 55% FT% is pretty sad.

[Leferd]

This may be the year KD takes the MVP trophy away from Lebron.

[ShadySands]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCpA97CFiCQ

[Keyrock]

This may be the year KD takes the MVP trophy away from Lebron.

I'd say he's the front runner right now.  KD's numbers are ridiculous 30.6 PPG 7.9 RPG 5.0 APG, plus there's going to be the reluctance of the voters to give LeBron a 3rd straight.  If KD can help OKC weather the storm while Russ is hurt and still finish with one of the top 2 or 3 seeds, and he's still putting up obscene numbers like this at the end of the season, it will be hard to not give it to him, despite the fact that we all know LeBron is still the best player in the league.  Long way to go, though. 

[Volourn]

No way should anyone get MVP but Lebron. But, you are right. the voters won't want to give him a 3rd straight plus they likely feel it's a way to punish him for his 'evilness'.  KD is  good but he (and nobody else) is at Lebron's level. Plus,  I'd argue that KD may not even be the MVP of his own team as shown in last year's playoffs. And, his points aren't hat impressive considering how much of a ball hog he is and how he pretty much shoots the ball all the time. Lebron averages 25ish points with  less shots. 8*hrug*

[Keyrock]

It's a difficult to gauge what the Thunder would be like were it KD rather than Russ that was out because KD has been healthy his whole career.  We have virtually zero games we can point to and say "That's what the Thunder look like without KD" because they're never without KD.  You're preaching to the choir about LeBron deserving to be the MVP again.  If I had a vote I'd vote for LeBron without giving it a second thought, despite the fact that KD is my favorite player and the reason I follow the Thunder.  Some of the voters have these weird rationalizations about voting or not voting for certain people, not wanting someone to get 3 MVPs in a row because only Bill Russell, Wilt, and Larry Legend got 3 in a row and they want to keep it that way, or some bogus crap like that.  It's not just in basketball either.  Look at the bull**** of some idiots not voting for Greg Maddux for the Hall of Fame just so he wouldn't get voted in unanimously.  It's unfortunate that people with obvious agendas and strong biases get to vote on these types of honors, but it is what it is.  

Edited January 18, 2014 by Keyrock

[Guard Dog]

I've got tickets to see the Grizz play the Pelicans on Monday. Memphis has been a real disappointment so far this year.

[Leferd]

*puts on stat head hat*

 

KD actually deserves to win MVP as of right now.

 

-OKC has a better record and in an exponentially tougher conference than Miami.

-KD has better advanced metric scores than Lebron this year. This is significant because Lebron has traditionally dominated in these metrics over the last few years.

-KD has a higher Win Share and Win Share/per48 than Lebron. And signaficantly so. (10.0 to 8.0 and .317 to .273)

-KD has both a better individual Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating than Lebron.

-KD leads the league in scoring.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_leaders.html

Edited January 18, 2014 by Leferd

[Keyrock]

*puts on stat head hat*

 

KD actually deserves to win MVP as of right now.

 

-OKC has a better record and in an exponentially tougher conference than Miami.

-KD has better advanced metric scores than Lebron this year. This is significant because Lebron has traditionally dominated in these metrics over the last few years.

-KD has a higher Win Share and Win Share/per48 than Lebron. And signaficantly so. (10.0 to 8.0 and .317 to .273)

-KD has both a better individual Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating than Lebron.

-KD leads the league in scoring.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_leaders.html

Good gravy, I didn't realize KD's metrics were THAT good right now.  His PER (Player Efficiency Rating), which is the closest thing we have to a single all-encompassing stat, is 30.1.  30.1!  For reference, anything north of 20 is really good, north of 24 is great, once you start dipping into 27 and upwards territory, that's extraordinary.  30.1 is ludicrous.  I don't think it's sustainable, because KD is going silly right now, but to even go above the 30 mark for a single game is ridiculous.  I can think of exactly 2 active players capable of that.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Keyrock

[Leferd]

I was actually going to list PER but I have an anti-John Hollinger bias. Lols.

[Leferd]

I've got tickets to see the Grizz play the Pelicans on Monday. Memphis has been a real disappointment so far this year.

Yeah, this is an example of John Hollinger's hubris. Where are they going to get their scoring? In consecutive years, they've gotten rid of their best scorer and their very successful coach, because they don't buy into his pet PER stat and he had the audacity to meddle into the coaching realm. There is a huge difference if you are Jerry West and give a few pointers to players, but who the hell is John Hollinger???

[kgambit]

 

I've got tickets to see the Grizz play the Pelicans on Monday. Memphis has been a real disappointment so far this year.

Yeah, this is an example of John Hollinger's hubris. Where are they going to get their scoring? In consecutive years, they've gotten rid of their best scorer and their very successful coach, because they don't buy into his pet PER stat and he had the audacity to meddle into the coaching realm. There is a huge difference if you are Jerry West and give a few pointers to players, but who the hell is John Hollinger???

 

 

The real issue is that Hollins and Hollinger are old school / new school and Hollins didn't buy into Hollingers stats-driven analysis.  They also had a history dating back to 2011 when Hollinger was just a media hack for ESPN.  In fairness, who the heck was Bill James until Billy Beane started applying James' advanced statistics in the late 90s (~20 years after James started). 

Edited January 18, 2014 by kgambit

[Leferd]

Yep. There already was animosity between the two, and Hollinger really rid overstep his boundary when he stepped on the practice floor and essentially instructed players where and how to take their shots without even having the courtesy of asking the coach for a go ahead.

 

You're Lionel Hollins, the most successful coached the franchise and highly respected league wide. Your defensive schemes are 1B to Tom Thibideau's 1A, and you've been consistently producing winners for several years. Suddenly your new owner decides to hire a writer from espn.com to be VP of Basketball Operations and your new boss. Ok, great, we're getting another David Kahn...just so long as he lets me do my job, we'll be fine. Then almost immediately you get notes from upstairs saying you need to play this guy x minutes and tell this person to stop taking these shots. Thanks boss, but please let me do my job, I'm good at it and we've been pretty successful. I'll keep your notes handy.

 

He then proceeds to trade away your best player. Ok fine, I'll adjust and we'll keep rolling and does so....and the wins keep on adding up. I can do this, just as long as he lets me do my job.

 

Then one day during practice he witnesses Hollinger actually trying to coach and instruct his players on when and where he is allowed to shoot the basketball. What do you do? You tell him to get the frak out of my practice floor and stay the frak out!

 

Hollinger is a terrible boss. Hollins has been around the block and there is a certain amount of pride these guys have. Unless you are Jerry West, Michael Jordan, or Larry Bird, front office types can observe but should never meddle with directly coaching the players, especially during a structured practice session.

 

Well, Hollinger got what he wanted, a lapdog for a coach and a chance to be the next RC Buford and David Morey.

[Volourn]

You can quote all the silly stats yiu want,  Lebron is the better player and more valuable to his team. Without Lebron, Miami is lucky to be a playoff team let alone two time champion. With or without KD, OKC is still a no time winner and we all saw what happens to OKC when they lose their true MVP last year in the playoffs. It is ludicrousd that people are stil trying their best to pretend that Lebron is not the best player in the game. L0L

[Leferd]

Don't be absurd. Lebron wouldn't have won those championships without Allen and Battier knocking down corner treys. Not without Bosh hitting 20 footers from top of the key. And especially not without D-Wade sacrificing his game to be Lebron's sidekick. And also not without a flexible coach who designed their unorthodox offensive and defensive schemes specifically catered for Lebron. Without Lebron, the Heat would still have a shot at going to the Conference Finals. (That's a dig on how weak the East is)

 

C'mon Volo, you're being especially obtuse. Did anyone in this thread say Lebron is not the best player in the game. Hell, by the time he's done, he'll be the greatest basketball player of all time. I think he's already better than that prick, Michael Jordan, ever was.

[Volourn]

 D-wade  didn't sacrifice anything.  He is Lebron's 'sidekick' because Lebron is simply the better player. None of those other players would have had a chance to even step up if Lebron wasn't on the team. He makes his team better. Guys like Battier are nothing, Allen is a one dimensional 3 pint shooter past his prime, Bosh is a greta player who led a crappy team while Lebron dragged a crappy Cavs team to the finals, Wade won his one pre Lebron championship on the coattails of the bestc enters yet somehow gets all the credit for it despite  the fact as soon as Shaq broke down the Miami team became crap. The coach is 'flexible' means he is doing the smart thing - basing his team's plans around their best player. Any  coach worthy of coaching should know to do that.

 

Anyone who claims KD or any other wannabe is better/more valuable than Lebron is smoking some rather silly drugs.

[kgambit]

Yep. There already was animosity between the two, and Hollinger really rid overstep his boundary when he stepped on the practice floor and essentially instructed players where and how to take their shots without even having the courtesy of asking the coach for a go ahead.

 

True enough.  But Hollins never gave the statistical approach a shot.  He criticized it on multiple occasions from day 1.  So yeah Hollinger crossed the line once, and Hollins over-reacted.  It was clear that Hollins was NEVER going to buy in to the approach that Owner Robert Pera wanted to install.  Hollins' vocal criticism in the media made his departure inevitable.   

 

As for Rudy Gay - he was traded with 37M$ left on the last two years of his contract and every statistical analysis showed that he simply wasn't worth that type of money anymore.  Plus Memphis is a small market city that had invested 55M$ in long term contracts to Gasol, Conley, Z-Bo and Gay and they were pushing the cap limit hard.  Gay was a cap casualty.  Harsh reality but true. 

 

Don't get me wrong, Hollins is a good coach but he was a bad fit with Pera's approach and he went out of his way to make sure everyone knew about it.   

 

I find it a little surprising that you seem to be criticizing Hollinger's analytics when you are a supporter of analytics elsewhere.  Maybe it's just the particulars of Hollinger's PER?

Edited January 19, 2014 by kgambit

[Leferd]

 

Yep. There already was animosity between the two, and Hollinger really rid overstep his boundary when he stepped on the practice floor and essentially instructed players where and how to take their shots without even having the courtesy of asking the coach for a go ahead.

 

True enough. But Hollins never gave the statistical approach a shot. He criticized it on multiple occasions from day 1. So yeah Hollinger crossed the line once, and Hollins over-reacted. It was clear that Hollins was NEVER going to buy in to the approach that Owner Robert Pera wanted to install. Hollins vocal criticism in the media made his departure inevitable.

 

As for Rudy Gay - he was traded with 37M$ left on the last two years of his contract and every statistical analysis showed that he simply wasn't worth that type of money anymore. Plus Memphis is a small market city that had invested 55M$ in long term contracts to Gasol, Conley, Z-Bo and Gay and they were pushing the cap limit hard. Gay was a cap casualty. Harsh reality but true.

 

Don't get me wrong, Hollins is a good coach but he was a bad fit with Pera's approach and he went out of his way to make sure everyone knew about it.

 

I find it a little surprising that you seem to be criticizing Hollinger's analytics when you seem to be a supporter of them elsewhere. Maybe it's just the particulars of Hollinger's PER?

I actually did think, as was mentioned by me (much) earlier in this thread that the Rudy Gay trade was a good long term move by Memphis. However it is hubris and disrespect on Hollinger's part to take immediate steps to alienate your players, coaching staff and fan base to disrupt a team - and a damn good one, just so he can put his immediate stamp on his team.

 

What made things worse with the unauthorized "coaching" was that it happened during the playoffs! Seriously man, what the hell was he thinking?

 

Look, he's well within his rights to trade whoever he wants and to hire/fire his coaching staff, but the dude needs some serious people skills and to utterly disrespect a coach with Hollins' credentials a few months in his first basketball job in front of his players is disgraceful. I'd love to see Hollinger pull that stunt with Popovich.

 

I'm all into advanced metrics and own Bill James' baseball abstracts since the 1985 edition, but they are tools and should be used to paint part of the picture in conjunction with traditional methods. Advanced metrics say that there really are only three shots a team should only take: inside the paint, or the corner three. Good luck trying to up get that against a good defense. The third shot? Isolate your best scorer for a one on one matchup. All cases lead to unwatchable basketball: see Rockets, Houston.

 

*****edit****

 

I'm not sure I'm completely sold on PER as a catch-all stat. It's decent enough but It's not nearly as robust as how as WAR is in baseball. I do like offensive rating and defensive rating, though not so much for individual players, but as a whole for teams or more specifically per 5-man units. Win Shares tries to measure how impactful a player is to a team's win total, a basketball conversion to Bill James' baseball stat.

 

I do like how Sports-VU cameras have been installed in arenas through the league. Lots of good and measurable raw data that is going to come out of it and will really advance the amount of knowledge and metrics that can be derived from its analysis. Many of the more data centric teams will take full advantage of this.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Leferd

[Volourn]

"Don't get me wrong, Hollins is a good coach but he was a bad fit with Pera's approach and he went out of his way to make sure everyone knew about it.   "

 

Then, perhaps, he shouldn't have hired the coach in the first palce. Afterall, don't teams research coaches before hiring them. LMAO

[Leferd]

"Don't get me wrong, Hollins is a good coach but he was a bad fit with Pera's approach and he went out of his way to make sure everyone knew about it.   "

 

Then, perhaps, he shouldn't have hired the coach in the first palce. Afterall, don't teams research coaches before hiring them. LMAO

Pera bought the team right before the start of last season. Pera and Hollinger essentially cleaned house on a 56 win team. Much like the Nuggets.

[Volourn]

K.

[ShadySands]

I can't really blame the Nuggets because even though they've had a good, solid record for a nearly a decade they've only gotten past the first round of the playoffs once in all that time

[kgambit]

"Don't get me wrong, Hollins is a good coach but he was a bad fit with Pera's approach and he went out of his way to make sure everyone knew about it.   "

 

Then, perhaps, he shouldn't have hired the coach in the first palce. Afterall, don't teams research coaches before hiring them. LMAO

 

ROTFL

 

Pera didn't hire Hollins in the first place.  Michael Hensley, the previous owner, signed Hollins starting with the 2008-2009 season.   Pera then bought the team in June 2012.  Hollins had one year remaining on his contract at the time.  Once it became clear during the 2012-2013 season that Hollins couldn't co-exist with the new owner and management, the team decided not to renew Hollin's contract when it expired on June 30, 2013.  

 

What should Pera have done?  Fired Hollins before they gave him a chance to work with the new management?   

 

Sorry.  See that Leferd got this before me.

 

@Leferd - fair enough about the PER.  I think it's a bit harsh to judge the validity of PER with only one year of results.  But I understand the skepticism. 

I'm also not arguing that Hollinger didn't step over the line with the playoff incident.  I'm not sure what Hollins issue was but he made it clear even before that incident that he wasn't buying into the metrics.  I think that one incident is overblown. YMMV. 

 

As I said earlier, I think Hollins was good coach and his firing surprised me at the time.  Now that I know more about the background story - not so much.  There is also some debate over whether Hollins or Joerger (who was Hollins assistant) deserves credit for Grizzlies defense. 

 

You might ask Dave Hecker about his take on Hollin's people skills.  Hecker was an assistant coach for Hollins until Lionel fired him - during the playoffs.

Edited January 19, 2014 by kgambit