Woman wins millions in lottery 4 times!

[Wrath of Dagon]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_..._lottery_winner

 

I don't think the odds are in septillions like the article says, but they've got to be at least in the trillions. The way I see it, there are only two possible explanations. Either this is the most elaborate scam ever, or there has to be a supernatural explanation. Take that atheists!

[WorstUsernameEver]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100714/ap_on_..._lottery_winner

 

I don't think the odds are in septillions like the article says, but they've got to be at least in the trillions. The way I see it, there are only two possible explanations. Either this is the most elaborate scam ever, or there has to be a supernatural explanation. Take that atheists!

 

The leap of logic that makes you connect this with atheism is... amusing.

[Wrath of Dagon]

OK, that wasn't entirely serious, but atheists don't believe in anything supernatural, right?

[Oblarg]

OK, that wasn't entirely serious, but atheists don't believe in anything supernatural, right?

 

You left out the possibility of extreme luck.

 

It happens. The chance is nonzero.

 

Still, more likely it's some sort of scam.

[kirottu]

I wonder if she has figured something out?

[Wrath of Dagon]

What in the hell is extreme luck? Is luck some kind of measurable property?

Edit:

@kirottu 3 of those were scratch off tickets, so she wouldn't even know the numbers. She'd just get the next one from the machine, completely random.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[kirottu]

@kirottu 3 of those were scratch off tickets, so she wouldn't even know the numbers. She'd just get the next one from the machine, completely random.

 

Ah.

[Oblarg]

What in the hell is extreme luck? Is luck some kind of measurable property?

 

Luck: favorable results given unfavorable odds.

 

Extreme luck: Favorable results given extremely unfavorable odds.

 

It happens. It does not happen often, but mathematics dictates it *must* happen at some point if the sample size is large enough.

 

Regardless, it most likely is a scam.

 

Oh, and that article was idiotic:

 

After all, the only way to win is to keep playing.

 

Anyone who passed high-school statistics can tell you that the only way to win a negative EV game in the long run is to not play.

[Wrath of Dagon]

What in the hell is extreme luck? Is luck some kind of measurable property?

 

Luck: favorable results given unfavorable odds.

 

Extreme luck: Favorable results given extremely unfavorable odds.

 

It happens. It does not happen often, but mathematics dictates it *must* happen at some point if the sample size is large enough.

 

Regardless, it most likely is a scam.

 

Oh, and that article was idiotic:

 

After all, the only way to win is to keep playing.

 

Anyone who passed high-school statistics can tell you that the only way to win a negative EV game in the long run is to not play.

Yes, it should happen once in thousands of the lifetimes of the universe, how does that make you feel better?

[Oblarg]

Yes, it should happen once in thousands of the lifetimes of the universe, how does that make you feel better?

 

Should it make me feel bad, or something?

 

The idea that this (if it is not at a scam) is at all a valid argument in favor of the supernatural is overwhelmingly stupid.

[Thorton_AP]

Makes more sense than magical supernatural.

 

But people will believe what they want to believe.

[Wrath of Dagon]

What makes more sense?

[HoonDing]

Does she by any chance own an octopus?

[Oblarg]

What makes more sense?

 

That it's a scam.

 

But if you're dead set on not believing that, it even makes more sense to just accept that she was incredibly lucky. You have not presented us with something that actually violates our current understanding of statistics.

 

And, here's the important part: Even if you did, the correct response would be to rethink our current model of statistics than to jump to "god did it." The line of thinking that leads to those large leaps of "we don't know how this works, ergo god" is hopelessly infantile and ultimately detrimental to the betterment of human knowledge.

 

Now, I'm half-convinced that you're just trolling here, so this is my last post in this topic.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Either this is the most elaborate scam ever, or there has to be a supernatural explanation.

 

All you have done is set up a false dichotomy. Also, just because something is improbable does not mean that it's impossible - as someone else has already said, she could have just gotten extremely lucky.

 

...but atheists don't believe in anything supernatural, right?

 

Not necessarily. Atheism in itself simply is a disbelief in the existence of deity or deities.

 

Yes, it should happen once in thousands of the lifetimes of the universe, how does that make you feel better?

 

Uhhhh... What's your point, why should some random person winning, if the winning in legitimate, make me feel better? I mean, it's great for her but since I don't know her, or really anything about her other than that she won, I don't really care.

[Wrath of Dagon]

What makes more sense?

 

That it's a scam.

 

But if you're dead set on not believing that, it even makes more sense to just accept that she was incredibly lucky. You have not presented us with something that actually violates our current understanding of statistics.

Yes it does. Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world. And I already accounted for the sample size, otherwise it would be septillions like the article says.

 

And, here's the important part: Even if you did, the correct response would be to rethink our current model of statistics than to jump to "god did it." The line of thinking that leads to those large leaps of "we don't know how this works, ergo god" is hopelessly infantile and ultimately detrimental to the betterment of human knowledge.

OK, I'm willing to pursue the line of inquiry into why current statistics are inadequate, although I'm pretty sure they're on solid mathematical foundation.

Now, I'm half-convinced that you're just trolling here, so this is my last post in this topic.

No big loss.

 

Edit:

Does she by any chance own an octopus?

Must have, the octopus' chances were only 1 in 256 though, so she did a bit better.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Deadly_Nightshade]

What makes more sense?

 

That it's a scam. The next most likely option is that she got lucky.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Sorry, double post.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Yes it does. Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world.

 

Incorrect. As I already said, in fact I'll just quote my last post, "just because something is improbable does not mean that it's impossible". Something might have a one-in-one-trillion chance of happening, but there's still that one-in-one-trillion chance of that something happening - there's nothing here that actually violates, quote, "the natural world".

[kirottu]

Does she by any chance own an octopus?

 

With our current understanding of universe I think this is the most probable option. Not sure if the name of octopus matters though.

[Calax]

Dagon, Do something for me, take a deck of cards, and lay em out in a random order on your desk face up. Then calculate the probability that you got that particular set of cards in that particular string of positions. Hell, do it with 3 or four decks simultaneously and calculate that amount and tell us the probability of getting that particular order of cards again.

[Thorton_AP]

Yes it does. Something that only has 1 in trillions chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world.

 

No, something that has zero chance of happening shouldn't happen in the natural world.

[Deadly_Nightshade]

Now, I'm half-convinced that you're just trolling here, so this is my last post in this topic.

 

If Dagon is a troll he's playing his part well and hasn't tipped his hand overly-much. Although, yes, I could see how you would think that he might be one.

[Balthamael]

I can tell you right now that nothing that has the probability of 1 out of 18 septillion happened. The reporter likely mistakenly factored the probabilities of four wins, and thus got a ridiculously low number. What that calculation tells you is the probability to win four times with four particular tickets. However this woman has probably been buying tickets every weeks for several years, and won four times over that time. The probability of that is considerably higher, though still not at all likely. But when you consider how many events happen every day in the world, you have to expect that something very, very unlikely happens every now and then. Somewhere there probably is someone who has been hit by lightning four times cursing this woman.

 

Could be a scam as well, though I have hard time imagining how that could be done, given that the authorities conducted full investigation.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Balthamael

[Wrath of Dagon]

Dagon, Do something for me, take a deck of cards, and lay em out in a random order on your desk face up. Then calculate the probability that you got that particular set of cards in that particular string of positions. Hell, do it with 3 or four decks simultaneously and calculate that amount and tell us the probability of getting that particular order of cards again.

The probability of getting that order again would be around 2^50, so yeah, it would never happen no matter how many times you try.

 

Edit: Actually it's 50 factorial, still pretty huge. Actually much bigger.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon