Crisis warning - solar flares

[Humodour]

Like a hair drier into a bowl of soup?

 

I'm gonna try that. Sounds awesome.

[Wrath of Dagon]

So how come the solar flare in 1921 didn't burn down every telegraph station and every house with a telephone? And ground current? That's a lot of ground current. And how come the entire power grid didn't shut down, they had electricity back then. There are fires and equipment damage by lightning strikes every day, so what?

Edited June 15, 2010 by Wrath of Dagon

[heathen]

So how come the solar flare in 1921 didn't burn down every telegraph station and every house with a telephone? And ground current? That's a lot of ground current. And how come the entire power grid didn't shut down, they had electricity back then. There are fires and equipment damage by lightning strikes every day, so what?

 

Modern electronics are much more sophisticated so a lot more vulnerable. Also the thing the experts are most worried about are satellites, plus i think this storm is supposed to be much, much stronger than the one in 1921. I quote:

 

Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

 

Naturally this is a prediction, but considering how regular space phenomenons are I'd say it's more likely that they're right.

 

Here's some of the things that happened in 1921:

 

The prelude to this particular storm began with a major sunspot sighted on the limb of the sun vast enough to be seen with the naked eye through smoked glass. The spot was 94,000 miles long and 21,000 miles wide and by May 14th was near the center of the sun in prime location to unleash an earth-directed flare. The 3-degree magnetic bearing change among the five worst events recorded ended all communications traffic from the Atlantic Coast to the Mississippi. At 7:04 AM on May 15, the entire signal and switching system of the New York Central Railroad below 125th street was put out of operation, followed by a fire in the control tower at 57th Street and Park Avenue. No one had ever heard of such a thing having happened during the course of an auroral display. The cause of the outage was later ascribed to a 'ground current' that had invaded the electrical system. Railroad officials formally assigned blame for a fire destroyed the Central New England Railroad station, to the aurora. Telegraph Operator Hatch said that he was actually driven away from his telegraph instrument by a flame that enveloped his switchboard and ignited the entire building at a loss of $6,000.

 

Over seas, in Sweden a telephone station was 'burned out', and the storm interfered with telephone, telegraph and cable traffic over most of Europe. Aurora were visible in the Eastern United States, with additional reports from Pasadena California where the aurora reached zenith.

 

Imagine this happening to every electronic device on the planet. Imagine a lightning striking every power line at the same time.

 

On a somewhat unrelated note, I find it amusing how you choose to doubt experts on every field based on nothing but your gut and "common sense". You should join the flat earth society

Edited June 15, 2010 by heathen

[Calax]

I'm guessing the EM schock might get as powerful as Jupiters EM field, which is REALLY nasty and will burn out almost ALL sat's that aren't hardened specifically for it. We learned that the hard way.

[Humodour]

So how come the solar flare in 1921 didn't burn down every telegraph station and every house with a telephone? And ground current? That's a lot of ground current. And how come the entire power grid didn't shut down, they had electricity back then. There are fires and equipment damage by lightning strikes every day, so what?

 

They didn't have computers back then, or computer-controlled electricity grids.

 

But I guess that kind of observation is beyond you.

[Wrath of Dagon]

I thought all the computers self-destructed during the great Y2K apocalypse, and now everything is either hand cranked or driven by oxen?

[heathen]

I thought all the computers self-destructed during the great Y2K apocalypse, and now everything is either hand cranked or driven by oxen?

 

They can calculate these things you know. Solar activity goes in phases that have been the same for as long as they have been observed. Y2K was a mistake by computer scientists, this is astronomy. Are you really this daft?

 

This is not to say I believe the damage will be quite as bad as the worst case scenario, but the sun will definitely flare up in 2013.

[HoonDing]

I bet the Reapers are behind it all.

[Thorton_AP]

These events seem cyclical. What happened 11 years ago? Or 22 years ago? Since one happens every 22 years, while the other every 11 years.

 

 

"A more likely scenario was that large areas, including northern Europe and Britain which have

[Tel Aviv]

Scientists are aware of the immense power of the sun's solar flares, but modern human history has never experienced a proper solar storm the likes of which happens every 100 years or so. The kind that would obliterate much of Earth's electronics, and certainly all satellites.

 

Will I still get O2 coverage?

[Walsingham]

Go easy on WoD. I think it's fair enough to be a little skeptical, if only to save on underpants. The experts are often just people like us, wearing a tweed jacket.

 

I think the really important question is whether it will affect agricultural machinery, oil refining, and shipping. What about gas? Is every bloody gas storage facility a going to start cooking off?

[Irrelevant]

Dude, we can play Fallout for real. I also think you guys are assuming people are nice.

Also, does er, aluminum do anything to guard against this?

[Thorton_AP]

A common theme I have seen is that today's electronics are more susceptible to this. Why?

 

I can understand the effect would be more serious as electronics are more common today. But that is very different than more susceptible.

[Calax]

Dude, we'd loose at fallout for real

[Walsingham]

A common theme I have seen is that today's electronics are more susceptible to this. Why?

 

I can understand the effect would be more serious as electronics are more common today. But that is very different than more susceptible.

 

Good question. I was assuming it was like EMP. EMP affects modern electronics more than old fashioned valves because the [i'm going to regret not checking this on Wikipedia] modern systems are of a smaller size, which acts as a better antenna for the... ah nuts. I should look it up. Too sleepy now tho.

[Humodour]

A common theme I have seen is that today's electronics are more susceptible to this. Why?

 

I can understand the effect would be more serious as electronics are more common today. But that is very different than more susceptible.

 

It's one thing to inject highly energetic particles into an electricity grid whose only purpose is running a motor or a light bulb. It's another entirely to inject them into a grid which a) runs on integrated circuits of billions of transistors, and b) is connected to billions of integrated circuits of billions of transistors. And these particles and any current build-up wouldn't just be reaching these devices through the grid, but also directly hitting the devices themselves.

 

Essentially, electronics of today are infinitely more complex compared to 90 years ago, when for example transistors (or any type of computer) did not exist, and the triode valve had barely been invented a few years earlier. This increased complexity significantly increases the risk of component failure, but the components themselves are also far more sensitive to stresses and deviations in current, not least of all because of the magnitude of size difference.

[Thorton_AP]

It's one thing to inject highly energetic particles into an electricity grid whose only purpose is running a motor or a light bulb.

 

It's another entirely to inject them into a grid which a) runs on integrated circuits of billions of transistors, and b) is connected to billions of integrated circuits of billions of transistors.

 

Is it really? I thought components today were also significantly more advanced at dealing with things like EM interference. I'm no expert on the subject, but you are talking like one.

 

 

What I see are news articles depicting a worst case scenario type situation. Your posts make it seem like we're all pretty much ****ed, which comes off as being an awful lot like fear mongering.

[Humodour]

It's one thing to inject highly energetic particles into an electricity grid whose only purpose is running a motor or a light bulb.

 

It's another entirely to inject them into a grid which a) runs on integrated circuits of billions of transistors, and b) is connected to billions of integrated circuits of billions of transistors.

 

Is it really? I thought components today were also significantly more advanced at dealing with things like EM interference. I'm no expert on the subject, but you are talking like one.

 

 

What I see are news articles depicting a worst case scenario type situation. Your posts make it seem like we're all pretty much ****ed, which comes off as being an awful lot like fear mongering.

 

I've only taken 1st year physics at university, so I'm not an expert. I referred to my uni's e-journal database before posting though (if you want to do similar, Google Scholar is probably your most accessible source, though without a university's access you won't be able to view most articles).

 

The notion that modern electronics are hardened against EMR and energetic particles from a solar storm is laughable - what gave you that idea?

 

Ignoring what MIGHT happen, and sticking with what we know WOULD happen given a suitably powerful coronal mass ejection: most satellites would be severely damaged or destroyed (this is the most consistent prediction), and electricity and telecommunications grids would go haywire (as they did every time before - catching fire, etc, due to the massive current entering them).

 

I think this pretty clearly means we're ****ed. I don't believe this means we're ****ed permanently; that we couldn't recover after a month or two. And it wouldn't surprise me if they don't have a new fleet of fully functioning satellites ready to launch after the event, since that is one of NASA's recommendations, and they're aware of when this will occur. And I suppose they'd also manufacture a bunch of replacement transformers for the electricity grid beforehand, too, since those would be in short supply and the most likely part of the grid to suffer damage from the storm.

 

Things would become a lot worse if the CME happened over the course of several days as the Carrington event in 1859 did. That would mean the entire Earth would be hit rather than a continent or two.

 

Then again, if we can predict precisely when such a CME will happen, a lot of the damage can be mitigated (by essentially turning things off - satellites in low power modes, unplugging transformers, etc). Predicting with such precision is unlikely to be realistic, however.

 

I hope you will believe the scientists at NASA working on problems like this, as they wrote a detailed report on the issue: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507

 

Oh, and I just noticed that the House of Congress approved $100 million in funding to harden America's electricity grid against this event. Smart.

Edited June 16, 2010 by Krezack

[Humodour]

These events seem cyclical. What happened 11 years ago? Or 22 years ago? Since one happens every 22 years, while the other every 11 years.

 

 

"A more likely scenario was that large areas, including northern Europe and Britain which have “fragile” power grids, would be without power and access to electronic devices for hours, possibly even days. "

 

I wonder if it's more likely to be "hours" or "days." I'll admit my own skepticism.

 

Did you read the article? These solar super storms are a result of the peak of TWO different cycles overlapping.

 

The last two times this happened were 1859 and 1921. Here's what happened to the crude electronics of 90 years ago:

 

I did read the article. A period of 22 years for one and 11 years for another. Hence why I asked what happened 11 years ago (the shorter one), as well as 22 years ago (which should have had some period of overlap as well).

 

Really? I thought it mentioned that solar cycle lengths are based on averages? Because the "11-year cycle" may actually last 9 (or 13, or whatever) years (and similar for the 22-year one), the match up between the two cycles isn't guaranteed every 22 years. In practice it is far rarer. Every decade or so for a strong one, and every 500 years or so for an extreme one (the kind that removes night-time for several days, as happened with the 1859 one).

 

Oh, and Wals, yeah a Faraday cage would work... IF you unplugged everything from the outside world (and that would be hard to time since you don't know when the CME will happen). :D

Edited June 16, 2010 by Krezack

[Pope]

So the solar flare will last over 4 hours?

 

That's not how it works. A solar flare isn't like a laser, hitting a precise spot. It's a wind of highly energetic particles that plays havoc with, and gets dispersed across, earth's various electromagnetic systems.

 

It might be fair to say, however, that the night-time side of the earth would escape the damage. I'm no expert on geophysics though.

Actually, I seem to recall the earth's magnetosphere would cause some sort of whiplash to the side "hidden" from the sun when a powerful solar flare strikes.

[Walsingham]

Presumably it would be possible to 'down tools' and switch off the grid if we saw a large flare emerge. ****ing insanely disruptive, but possible. With lower energy already in the system wouldn't that help?

 

Also, what would happen if you did have a faraday cage around your PC, for example?

 

What concerns me is that the 'few months' of disruption could occur, but be enough to halt automotive traffic on land and sea. Britain is about a week away from starvation at any given moment.

 

What happens to shipping? A LNG tanker hit by a large electric buildup could be little more than a handy kilonuke.

[heathen]

Thanks for those posts, Krezack. Physics and astronomy are my casual hobbies at best, and having never studied either in school past the high school level all of what I know are from popular science books.

[Humodour]

Thanks for those posts, Krezack. Physics and astronomy are my casual hobbies at best, and having never studied either in school past the high school level all of what I know are from popular science books.

 

Then I think you'd like this website!

 

http://www.physorg.com/

[Wrath of Dagon]

Also, what would happen if you did have a faraday cage around your PC, for example?

You do have a Faraday cage around your PC. It's called "the case". I recommend it put it into a Fahrenheit cage, just to be on the safe side.

[Calax]

Still, most electronics aren't EM hardened. If somebody could figure out a way to pop off an EM pulse WITHOUT the whole nuclear blast bit, it'd be nearly as devestating as if it'd HAD the blast because ALL infrastructure would be ruined.