US Presidential Elections 2

[Calax]

http://www.amptoons.com/blog/archives/2008...-from-newsweek/

 

appearently Newsweek is releasing stories that have built up during the campaign because they don't really matter anymore.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Actually, I'm very inclined to agree with Josh Sawyer's assessment of primary politics. Which is to say: you're clueless.

Yeah, I'm sure you have an intricate understanding of American politics from Australia.

 

As far as Palin, that was a horrible decision, I was shocked when I heard it. She obviously wasn't ready to be president, even before all the evidence of her utter ignorance came out. One of McCain's problems was his age, and one of his advantages was experience, and he screwed himself on both fronts with that selection. McCain has a reputation of being somewhat erratic and taking strange positions, and that certainly came out during the campaign. Still, with the financial crisis and all the hatred for Bush, I doubt any Republican would've done much better.

[Humodour]

Actually, I'm very inclined to agree with Josh Sawyer's assessment of primary politics. Which is to say: you're clueless.

Yeah, I'm sure you have an intricate understanding of American politics from Australia.

 

Well, your understanding of socialism is confused and you misunderstand the way in which the Primary Elections are demographically unbalanced (they are, but because of state sizes and scheduling issues, not "radical activists").

 

For instance, your claim that McCain won because Romney and Huckabee split the extremist demographic is false. McCain won 32 states and 47% of the popular vote. Huckabee and Romney combined won only 19 states and 42% of the popular vote. McCain won about 1,300 delegates while Mitt and Mike combined won only about 550 delegates.

 

As far as Palin, that was a horrible decision, I was shocked when I heard it. She obviously wasn't ready to be president, even before all the evidence of her utter ignorance came out. One of McCain's problems was his age, and one of his advantages was experience, and he screwed himself on both fronts with that selection. McCain has a reputation of being somewhat erratic and taking strange positions, and that certainly came out during the campaign. Still, with the financial crisis and all the hatred for Bush, I doubt any Republican would've done much better.

 

Lieberman wasn't a Republican, but was McCain's first choice for VP. He would've done better with Democrats and independents (but probably still lost: low base enthusiasm -> low base turnout).

[Wrath of Dagon]

Actually, I'm very inclined to agree with Josh Sawyer's assessment of primary politics. Which is to say: you're clueless.

Yeah, I'm sure you have an intricate understanding of American politics from Australia.

 

Well, your understanding of socialism is confused and you misunderstand the way in which the Primary Elections are demographically unbalanced (they are, but because of state sizes and scheduling issues, not "radical activists").

 

For instance, your claim that McCain won because Romney and Huckabee split the extremist demographic is false. McCain won 32 states and 47% of the popular vote. Huckabee and Romney combined won only 19 states and 42% of the popular vote. McCain won about 1,300 delegates while Mitt and Mike combined won only about 550 delegates.

That's because Romney withdrew once it became obvious the he couldn't win. You obviously don't understand how American primaries work, once a candidate wins a few early states his momentum becomes insurmountable. Had Hillary not won New Hampshire, she would be finished right there. Please don't argue about things you know nothing about.

As far as Palin, that was a horrible decision, I was shocked when I heard it. She obviously wasn't ready to be president, even before all the evidence of her utter ignorance came out. One of McCain's problems was his age, and one of his advantages was experience, and he screwed himself on both fronts with that selection. McCain has a reputation of being somewhat erratic and taking strange positions, and that certainly came out during the campaign. Still, with the financial crisis and all the hatred for Bush, I doubt any Republican would've done much better.

 

Lieberman wasn't a Republican, but was McCain's first choice for VP. He would've done better with Democrats and independents (but probably still lost: low base enthusiasm -> low base turnout).

You can't have a pro-abortion candidate as a Republican nominee, plus Lieberman is quite liberal on most other social issues. Whatever independent votes McCain would've picked up wouldn't offset all the conservatives that would simply stay home. The obvious and probably the best VP choice was Romney, but he also had a problem of some far-right Christians unwilling to vote for a Mormon, plus McCain doesn't like him.

[Dark_Raven]

What I don't understand is why these stupid brainwashed idiots keep calling Obama the first black president. He ain't black he's a bloody mix. Half white, half black. Goddamn this country is so stupid.

 

Palin/Clinton 2012.

[Humodour]

Actually, I'm very inclined to agree with Josh Sawyer's assessment of primary politics. Which is to say: you're clueless.

Yeah, I'm sure you have an intricate understanding of American politics from Australia.

 

Well, your understanding of socialism is confused and you misunderstand the way in which the Primary Elections are demographically unbalanced (they are, but because of state sizes and scheduling issues, not "radical activists").

 

For instance, your claim that McCain won because Romney and Huckabee split the extremist demographic is false. McCain won 32 states and 47% of the popular vote. Huckabee and Romney combined won only 19 states and 42% of the popular vote. McCain won about 1,300 delegates while Mitt and Mike combined won only about 550 delegates.

That's because Romney withdrew once it became obvious the he couldn't win. You obviously don't understand how American primaries work, once a candidate wins a few early states his momentum becomes insurmountable. Had Hillary not won New Hampshire, she would be finished right there. Please don't argue about things you know nothing about.

 

Errr. No. Please have a look at the Super Tuesday results (Romney withdrew after that). It's quite clear that McCain's momentum was independent of Romney and Huckabee stealing eachother's voter demographic (even taking into consideration the silly winner-takes-all system the GOP uses, it's evident McCain was comfortably ahead since he often won majority pluralities).

[Humodour]

What I don't understand is why these stupid brainwashed idiots keep calling Obama the first black president. He ain't black he's a bloody mix. Half white, half black. Goddamn this country is so stupid.

 

Somebody is stupid alright, but I'm not sure it's the rest of your country in this case.

 

Being 'black' is as much a culture as it is a skin colour, because biracial people suffered and suffer the same injustices, racism, and segregation as 'pureblood' black people. And for the record, mulattos are definitely considered 'black' by that culture.

Edited November 7, 2008 by Krezack

[Hurlshort]

What I don't understand is why these stupid brainwashed idiots keep calling Obama the first black president. He ain't black he's a bloody mix. Half white, half black. Goddamn this country is so stupid.

 

Somebody is stupid alright, but I'm not sure it's the rest of your country in this case.

 

Being 'black' is as much a culture as it is a skin colour, because biracial people suffered and suffer the same injustices, racism, and segregation as 'pureblood' black people. And for the record, mulattos are definitely considered 'black' by that culture.

 

DR, what exactly is your point here? Are you claiming he's not a black president? Because half black is still a lot more than any other president in US history. It just seems like a pretty odd statement, even for you.

[Wrath of Dagon]

@Krezack

My point exactly, by Super Tuesday McCain had build up too much momentum to be beaten. Take a look at the Florida results http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide.../states/FL.html McCain barely defeated Romney, and without Huckabee Romney is likely to have won, which would've completely changed the dynamics. Also the Republican system is vastly preferable to the slow death of a thousand cuts of the Democrats.

Edited November 7, 2008 by Wrath of Dagon

[Humodour]

@Krezack

My point exactly, by Super Tuesday McCain had build up too much momentum to be beaten. Take a look at the Florida results http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide.../states/FL.html McCain barely defeated Romney, and without Huckabee Romney is likely to have won, which would've completely changed the dynamics. Also the Republican system is vastly preferable to the slow death of a thousand cuts of the Democrats.

 

Florida is hardly evidence of "too much momentum" since all the other state elections before that had mixed results, and it seems to give far too much credit to the power of one state to influence the dozens of others involved in Super Tuesday: just look at polling in the Super Tuesday states before the Florida election result to see what I mean (the states McCain was winning, he won; the states he was losing, he lost).

 

McCain won because he was the most moderate GOP member. It's not because of the winner-takes-all system (which one might expect to give a result more in line with what you claim; plurality voting is polarising) but because the states with the highest number of delegates were the more Democratic states which had a fondness for McCain as a 'maverick' and somewhat moderate Republican. But that's a phenomenon rooted into the Primary Elections (both Democrat and Republican) and is not unique to McCain.

 

You'd possibly have an easier time arguing that the Democratic primaries were polarising because of the existence of superdelegates, but even then I think that's largely offset by the fact that it's proportional representation instead of winner-takes-all.

 

Edit: Bloody typos.

Edited November 7, 2008 by Krezack

[Wrath of Dagon]

McCain definitely did not win because he was the most moderate, you only have to look at his contest with George Bush to see that. It is well known that Republicans tend to go for the most conservative credible candidate. Another thing to keep in mind is that there were no true conservatives in the Republican race. Romney was a recent convert, most likely for purely political reasons, and Huckabee was a conservative only on social issues, and otherwise more of a populist. McCain is a solid conservative on about half the issues, but also tends to take positions on other issues which really piss off most Republicans. Also as I mentioned McCain was instumental in getting the surge in Iraq done, which gave a lot of conservatives a reason to vote for him which they wouldn't have otherwise.

[Aristes]

People don't win primaries for being moderate. I seriously doubt McCain won for being a "moderate," although I agree with Wrath that McCain isn't so much moderate as unpredictable. McCain's "moderate" reputation did help him some in the primaries for one reason, though. A lot of folks thought, because he's a so called moderate, that he had the best chance to win. That might be true, considering the atmosphere. Obama was the clear winner, and he tore off a huge chunk of the electoral and popular vote pie. However, many pundits assumed it would be worse. Now, Obama, should he have a successful four years, might have a Reagan level victory next election. If that happens, then the country is probably doing pretty well, though, which will be a silver lining no matter how you cut it.

 

Oh, and Obama's march to the center did not occur until after he had essentially won the primary. He backed off on a number of stances between the final days of the primary and the beginning of the general election campaign. That's common, and it also goes to put paid to the silly idea that moderates tend to win that pary's nomination. Yeah, fringe elements don't tend to win the party's nomination, but people to the right or left within a party generally win the primary. The moderates who win usually do so by making concessions to the base, and then they'll try as best they can to move more to center.

 

As far as Palin baiting goes, it's over. I was unhappy that McCain made the move. I was unhappy every time I heard her speak, but mostly I feel sympathy for Palin. McCain, out of sheer desperation, brought her to the majors before she was ready and might have destroyed her career at the national stage. That's politics, but I couldn't care less about the behind the curtain gossipping campaign.

[taks]

keep in mind that the primaries tend to draw the most active partisans to vote, which tends to mean those either further on the left or further on the right than the general voting public.

 

taks

[Meshugger]

Socialism:

 

[Aristes]

That's not socialism. That's propaganda. Neat montage, but silly as an argument for socialism.

 

By the way, it's nice that the racist United States can join the color-blind Europeans. We've got a black American president just like the black French president, the black Prime Minister of the Unite Kingdom, and the black Chancellor in Germany.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Yes, that was voluntary sharing, socialism is coercive sharing.

[Gorth]

Presidental elections continued Here