Fighting breaks out in South Ossetia

[Azarkon]

I'm surprised no one's posted this one yet.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08...etia/index.html

[Moatilliatta]

About time. So has anyone decided who they're gonna root for?

 

More seriously I'm somewhat annoyed at the lack of reliable info.

[Xard]

I'm surprised no one's posted this one yet.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08...etia/index.html

 

I was about to make thread about this

 

 

I am absolutely stunned and under mixed feelings of confusion, disbelief and worry. I never could've seen THIS happening. Sure, Russian bear likes to rattle its weapons and arms as that (esp. NUKLIAR WEAPONZ) is their greatest single remaining thing from their superpower days, but I couldn't imagine they'd go beyond that stage (and using energy weapon aka Gazpro) to actual war

 

Very worrysome

 

Good luck Georgia! You need it

[Moatilliatta]

The situation seems to be somewhat more comples than that Xard, unless I misunderstood your post.

 

The only thing I feel that I can say with some certainty is that this will be resolved diplomatically unless Russia invades Georgia proper i.e Georgia minus the breakaway republics.

[Xard]

No declaration of war has happened, but practically place is already war zone

 

And I believe this thing gets diplomatic ending BUT it is still war going on, no matter how small. This has been first time since Afghanistan since our eastern neighbours have switched on offensive using military

 

 

edit: in fact it is not small at all. It is first non-civil war in area of Europe since Second World War

Edited August 8, 2008 by Xard

[Moatilliatta]

It's just that we can't say yet who started this thing and who should be sent home with a note to their parents. It was mostly your comment about Russia rattling sabers and then leading to this that I tried to adress, as I'm not sure we can say anything much about this except that both countries will be weaker diplomatically.

[Gfted1]

(and using energy weapon aka Gazpro)

 

 

Whats this? I cant find it anywhere.

[Moatilliatta]

I think he is talking about subtle threats involving gazprom and europe.

[Gfted1]

OY, I thought he actually meant energy weapons. Thanks.

[Xard]

Ahh, were you live?

 

Here in Nordic Europe Russia does that quite often, especially when it comes to Estonia and other baltic countries. Not to mention the uses of energy weapon against whoever they want, the return to patrolling the Nordic Seas, bickering and threatening their former USSR "vassals"...

 

Here in Finland in last years there happens about 3 times a year air border trespassings by Russian war planes by "accident". It's not like they're anything terribly alarming, but this is one of the many ways russkies has been telling us in late years that they're coming back hard as formidable world might

Edited August 8, 2008 by Xard

[Moatilliatta]

The first thing I thought about were the Fallout energy weapons.

 

@Xard

Yep, I think it is only a few days that Russian planes violated Danish airspace.

[Xard]

Just to emphatise Gazprom's importance:

 

By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Republic of Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's. The European Union as a whole gets about 25 percent of its gas supplies from this company.

 

Suffice to say Gazprom is single greatest ace in Russian sleeve. It is way more formidable weapon than the rather sad state of their army (which as been changing too in late years however...)

 

It is also worth mentioning that only superpower in the world that likes to make fiery speeches and remindings about their nuclear weapons is Russia. America, China and others don't make noise. This is because nuclear weapons are still seen (and to some extent are) in Russia as evidence for their importance. Plus it is always good when "boohohoo, fear us" is considered

Edited August 8, 2008 by Xard

[Azarkon]

And it escalates...

 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L8218534.htm

 

Will no one step in?

[samm]

Unbelievable... These fighting idiots. "Oh, there hasn't been a war between two countries in Europe for some time now, let's start one!" "Yeah cool, let's show them we're still strong!" Animals with "superior" brains used for weapons instead of common sense.

[Moatilliatta]

And it escalates...

 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L8218534.htm

 

Will no one step in?

Is that an actual escalation? Haven't shells been traded back and forth for some days now?

 

Anyway I doubt something will happen before one side will listen and that probably won't be before Russia has control of the entirety of S. Ossetia (which I don't think they have).

[Azarkon]

It's the declaration of martial law that makes me think that it's an escalation. It means that this is no longer a territorial skirmish (it was that a few days ago), but a full-blown war.

[Walsingham]

Reports from fleeing civilians can be extremely misleading, but news footage from the BBC shows divisional artillery and BMP1s moving into place. This suggests mass troop movements for full scale war, not a precision insertion by airborne or special forces. Several sources suggest mass casualties, including US advisors.

 

What I find outrageous is the massive amount of firepower Russia seems to be applying. It's not like NATO has any forces free to send in to get in the way, or the Georgians themselves can do anything. Mass bombing is rarely justified, but surely still less so when you have such overwhelming numbers on the ground. the message seems to be clearly that Putin wants to make with the psycho to scare everyone, and the Georgians are paying in blood.

 

It seems clear to me that the upshot of this will be a lot of dead Georgian patriots, and a still greater atmosphere of terror in Eastern Europe for the next year or so. To what purpose I don't really understand. can anyone who understands Russian political psychology enlighten us? Will you Scands have to start locking and loading?

[Xard]

Besides, Georgia even isn't part of NATO yet

 

As for Finland, we're safe. We have very good relationships with russkies and we're valuable trade partner (even when keeping in mind our size) and - due to our experience - we also often act as bridge in communication between Russians and EU.

 

And Norway has no problem whatsoever. Swedes...well, you know, like always, we get the beating while they sip their coffees in safe if there is military conflict

 

Baltic however...

Edited August 8, 2008 by Xard

[Azarkon]

Reports from fleeing civilians can be extremely misleading, but news footage from the BBC shows divisional artillery and BMP1s moving into place. This suggests mass troop movements for full scale war, not a precision insertion by airborne or special forces. Several sources suggest mass casualties, including US advisors.

 

What I find outrageous is the massive amount of firepower Russia seems to be applying. It's not like NATO has any forces free to send in to get in the way, or the Georgians themselves can do anything. Mass bombing is rarely justified, but surely still less so when you have such overwhelming numbers on the ground. the message seems to be clearly that Putin wants to make with the psycho to scare everyone, and the Georgians are paying in blood.

 

It seems clear to me that the upshot of this will be a lot of dead Georgian patriots, and a still greater atmosphere of terror in Eastern Europe for the next year or so. To what purpose I don't really understand. can anyone who understands Russian political psychology enlighten us? Will you Scands have to start locking and loading?

 

Remember what happened in Kosovo, where a powerless Russia was forced to accept the terms dictated to its fellow Slavs by NATO. My impression is that the Russians have quite a bit of pent-up rage and that they've been preparing for this for a while. It is like picking up a stick and saying, to the West and all separatist movements, "this is where we draw the line. We Russians may have accepted the break-up of Serbia and the encroachment of NATO elsewhere, but Georgia is where we draw the line." From the Russian perspective, the latest series of Georgian provocations (this has been building all the while) have gone too far, and this is their show of force.

 

The alarmist may draw eerie comparisons with Hitler's aggression against Poland during WW II (which also started over a piece of land occupied mostly by Germans, but which existed in another country that wasn't willing to let it go), but in this case the Georgians did move their troops into South Ossetia first. It was a risky gamble, no doubt performed under the shadow of the Olympics for political reasons (ie the world is not watching, Putin is in Beijing, etc.). But the Russians called their bluff.

 

As always in a war, it's the innocents caught in the middle who suffer the most.

Edited August 8, 2008 by Azarkon

[Hildegard]

Reports from fleeing civilians can be extremely misleading, but news footage from the BBC shows divisional artillery and BMP1s moving into place. This suggests mass troop movements for full scale war, not a precision insertion by airborne or special forces. Several sources suggest mass casualties, including US advisors.

 

What I find outrageous is the massive amount of firepower Russia seems to be applying. It's not like NATO has any forces free to send in to get in the way, or the Georgians themselves can do anything. Mass bombing is rarely justified, but surely still less so when you have such overwhelming numbers on the ground. the message seems to be clearly that Putin wants to make with the psycho to scare everyone, and the Georgians are paying in blood.

 

It seems clear to me that the upshot of this will be a lot of dead Georgian patriots, and a still greater atmosphere of terror in Eastern Europe for the next year or so. To what purpose I don't really understand. can anyone who understands Russian political psychology enlighten us? Will you Scands have to start locking and loading?

 

The massive amount of firepower by the Russians is show of force, typical Russian style.

 

Georgia can blame themselves for this one, they engaged Southern Osetia and bombed its capital with MLRS, planes and entered with troops, during which they killed many civilians...and most of the people living there have Russian passports, I don't understand what did they expect? That Russians will just stay home and play stupid? lol

 

Now I'm interested how are they going to transport those Georgians troops from Iraq back home, although those units have zero-military weight in a conflict with Russia.

[Walsingham]

Stratfor.com brief no. 4 extract:

 

But this conflict is about much more than simply which flag flies over a tiny chunk of territory in the Caucasus. Georgia is an extremely pro-American and pro-Western state and represents the easternmost foothold of American/Western power. It has also been in the Russian orbit for the bulk of the past 300 years. As such, it is the hottest flashpoint in Western-Russian relations. Which way the territory falls ultimately decides whether Russia can determine security concerns that literally fall right on the border of its heartland. To put it another way, what is being decided here is whether bordering Russia and simultaneously being a U.S. ally is a suicidal combination. Whichever way this works out, the dynamics of the entire region are about to be turned on their head.

 

The conflict started on Thursday because the South Ossetians feared that the Russians were about to sell them out. Russia does not want Georgia to join NATO

[Walsingham]

OK, update:

 

BBC News footage of Russians entering region

 

 

 

I made a mistake earlier in stating these are not first grade troops. That's a T-80 tank, and it looks in good nick. There's also 2S3 SP arty travelling along with BMP-1 (as I said earlier). This is consistent wit h asserions that the 19th Motor Rifle Division has entered the country.

 

EDIT: Can anyone tell me what this vehicle is? I can't find it on any websites.

 

 

POST-EDIT: It is a 2S9 "Bereg" artillery piece.

[Walsingham]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2...2573830138.html

 

 

Note that Russia is playing the 'intervention to prevent humanitarian crisis' card. As I have said in our iraq threads the precedent exists to use this as a legal support for declaring war. While I'm hardly in favour, you can't deny they've done their homework.

[Brdavs]

You guys need to expand your infromation intake from BBC&CNN for a broader picture. It`s really a bit more complex. A lot actually.

 

South Ossetia I ethnically totaly seperate from main Georgia (ossetians =/= georgians), it`s a part of the ossetian region that was artifitialy "given" to georgian republic by Stalin during the sovet union era. Uppon the collapse of the SU they delclared independance and seeked admisson into the russian federation (the ossetians being the historical greates Russian allies in the region - North ossetia part of the federation today). Noone in the world recognised them but after bitter (balkan like ethnic) fighting they achieved de-facto indepandance (like Abkhazia) wich they`ve been "enyoing" for the past near 20 years. In 06 they again held a referendum to be independad and it suceeded yet it was deemed "unofficial".

90% of them hold russian passports cos they wont have georgian ones and russians have been there ever since early 90s as peacekeepers.

 

Now on the day of the start of the olympics georgian troops moved into the region to "restore constitutional order" and "eliminate the criminal regime". Equiped & trained by the west - since Saakashvili (leader of a far right nationalistic "lets regain lost teritories" policy) is practically a US marionette put in place a after a coup. Big friend of the west = loads of CNN coverage lol.

Russian peacekepers with UN mandate got killed and the "rebel" capital got leveled and taken, 1300-1400 civilians said to be dead in the georgian attacks. At wich point the russian tanks rolled into ossetia and are pushing back/engaging georgians.

 

 

 

 

 

My take on this? I live in the balkans where another nation and another Saakashvili saw fit to forcibly "reaffirm the constitutional order" over political and ethnical entities seeking independance. So I for one have ZERO symathy with the georgians.

And I`m ashamed that EU would back such a regieme as far as to even seek NATO membership. But hey, to encircle russia with bases I guess selling your sole is acceptable. From US am I used to such "changes of mind".

Btw this is what every1 was warning agains when kosove gained independance. Its the same in principle, only roles are reversed. This is how things would look if Serbia had the backing and ear of washington and not moscow, like Georgia now has.

Guess all that BS about ineliable rights of peoples and "what is right" was just that, BS. You aint getting jack if you aint on "our" team. If Ossetia was like Kosovo and was pro-western instead of pro-russian they would have been independant by now. With Nato bases there. Its a dirty dirty world, innit?

 

I do love how us west have discovered overnight a newfound love for the Security Council.

Know whats funny? When georgians moved into Ossetia Russia called a emergency SC meeting, drafting a resolution to demand from both parties they ceese hostilities. Blocked by US & UK. Once the Russians moved in to spank georgians back West is pitching the SAME type resolution to SC. Funny how things change in 24h. But now Russia doesnt seem fit to pass it lol. I wonder how bitter is ones own medicine lol?

 

 

 

So tone down on the Soviet fobia and get informed.

Edited August 9, 2008 by Brdavs

[SteveThaiBinh]

and most of the people living there have Russian passports

Yes, because Russia has been aggressively campaigning to get them to sign up for Russian passports. During the days of the USSR, the communist government encouraged ethnic Russians to go and settle in the other republics in order to dilute nationalist tendencies. This meant that when the USSR broke up, lots of other republics were left with large ethnic Russian minorities. So the new Russian tactic appears to be:

 

1. Find a region with lots of ethnic Russians.

2. Encourage them all to apply for Russian passports, thus making them Russia's problem.

3. Encourage them to stir up trouble with their government (demanding independence etc.)

4. When their own government tries to keep order, send in the tanks.

 

This could be applied in a number of former Soviet republics. They might not go for Latvia next, as that's already in NATO, but Ukraine is a possibility.