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Jorian Drake

Possibility about a revolution in china, or a war with democrats?  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. Possibility about a revolution in china, or a war with democrats?

    • It is very possible that there will be a war.
      6
    • There can be a revolution, yes.
      8
    • A revolution is not possible, too strong police and propaganda.
      8
    • No, no war, they are our friends.
      3


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Depends if the Three Gorges Dam will work. If it doesn't than China's government will be over-thrown. No doubt.

 

When you say "democrats", are you referring to the the democratic revolutionaries inside China, or the "free world" democracies of the developed countries?

I think he saying fighting another democracy but I really don't think China's a true democracy. It's more a comunist country to me. And don't give me that text book crap about how it's the biggest democracy either.

Edited by Craigboy2

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Revolutions require very special circumstances to occur and I dont think the situation in China is such that this can happen. Most of all it requires the nations police and military to feel that they can benefit more from a revolution than stay loyal to the goverment, and thats not going to happen in China.

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I talked to a pretty interesting ex-Navy dude (this is the guy in my Subway thread) who said that China are in an ideal situation to attack the US, and most of them have the desire. If they refitted merchant ships with nuclear warheads and brought them to within 100 miles of our coast (right before they start scanning for munitions) then they could launch them and take out all our military installations before we even blinked. They already have the locations of pretty much every US military installation in the world, even the secret ones, because of the spook plane they knocked down in 2001. He says his best guess as to when something like this or some other 'terrorist' attack will happen is the sixth of June, or right after the next elections, before the new president takes over, after the results come in...when the entire military is having one big kegger.

 

He also had some really funny stories about being in the Navy over with the Unit taking care of the 'sister' plane to the one that was knocked down in China. Said it was one big briefing for three weeks as the Military was ****ting it's collective pants changing every single thing 'lockable' even down to the keys to the cars.

 

If this happens I'll be very, very dead, as I live right next to Beal I'd literally be in the blast zone, not even time for radiation poisoning (spook plane AFB/missles and fighters within striking distance of China). On the other hand if something like that happens I don't think I'd want to live. :huh:

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Not possible in both cases.

 

A US trade embargo would actually worsen the situation (where did it not worsen the situation? I've got a long list of countries where the US trade embargo simply led to more suffering down the line, rather than the intended outcome of promoting democracy), since it'd encourage a ultranationalist regime to take power in China - one that is mostly distinctly hostile to the US and the rest of the world and which will be in a position to launch a war of conquest ala Germany in WW2.

 

The US might survive the war, but I doubt any East Asian countries will.

 

The problem with the Chinese government remains one of corruption: the central government, insofar as it goes, seems to be on the right track of promoting development and capitalism. The Chinese President, Hu Jintao, even announced a five year plan for redistributing the country's increasing wealth to these exact impoverished peasants you see here. However, any such attempt is held back by the inherent corruption of the bureaucracy, where local "officials" act like gang bosses in keeping the people down and the money to themselves. A crackdown of such corruption is made especially difficult by the fact that they own the police - and have enough friends in the central government to prevent easy ousting.

 

One argument Western thinking likes to bat around is that China would be better off under a democracy. Frankly, I don't think so. The combination of democracy and capitalism has no way of preventing what you see here from happening - which is essentially the growing gap between rich and poor, and the exploiting of the poor by the rich (and the powerful, which in China is the same thing). In fact, the only revoultion I can see happening in China is not a democratic evolution but a return to the old Maoist form of Communism where 800 million peasants launch a Cultural Revolution against the intellectuals and capitalists in the country. Suffice to say, not a good idea.

 

So ultimately, I have no clue as to what might eventually happen in China. However, I do know this: third world countries will never attain the benefits of true democracy. India has not (the class/caste system remains the dominant social device, despite democracy, and continues to impoverish and exploit the majority of the country), Iran has not, and neither will China. Only by becoming a first world country, it seems, can democracy really succeed.

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Sorry, but I disagree.  We need to separate ourselves from China.  We should not trade with China or allow chinesse goods and services in the US.  We should not sell to China as well.

 

No offense Hades, but you advocate isolationism for all of the US's problems, and if it were as easy as that China would never have been in the position that it is today, since the PRC came to power largely as a result of Western imperialism.

 

The US will never isolate itself; as a consequence, all nations looking to become a mover in the global scene must do so with the knowledge that the US will attempt to either woo them or stop them. A embargo from the US on China will not be interpreted as a moral incentive, but as an act of global bullying to "keep China down." It will be interpreted as an act of war, and no one will benefit from it.

Edited by Azarkon

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Its not like we would stop other countries buying and selling from them. WHat really got me was the Republicans gave those bastards Favored Trade Status. What a load of bullsh*t. That is one of the reasons I will never vote for a Republican into any office.

 

Also the source of the majority of the problems the US faces today is because 20, 30, 40, 50 ,60 years ago we kept interfering and poking our nose in things we had no right to interfere and poke with inthe first place.

Edited by Judge Hades
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Also the source of the majority of the problems the US faces today is because 20, 30, 40, 50 ,60 years ago we kept interfering and poking our nose in things we had no right to interfere and poke with inthe first place.

 

I agree that some times that was the case. But there were also some circumstances in which intervention was the right course of action...

 

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There is a difference between reality and ideal. Ideally, the US would be controlled by people who have the best interests of the world in mind. Realistically, the US is controlled by people who have only their own best interests in mind. China is no different - ideally, Communism would have worked. Realistically, it was the instrument of an authoritarian regime that killed millions. Regardless of how you feel about China, the living conditions of modern Chinese are made possible by foreign investment. If you remove that in protest to the Chinese government, the country would not only sink into poverty once again, but likely blame the US for it. Global stability would be lost, and WW3 would likely be the result.

 

You have to understand a simple rule: the common people do not care all that much about politics. What they do care about is the economy. As long as the Chinese economy remains strong, the country has a very high chance of emerging peacefully and becoming a democracy. As soon as that is taken away China, like Germany after WW1, will fall straight into extremism, and with a country comprising 1/5th of the world's population, the results will be far worse than WW2.

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Sure, but that doesn't mean we interfere in every single affair. We need to mind our own store first, take care of our own people first, then take care of the rest of the world. After the crap that China has pulled with blatant violations of human rights we should absolutely have nothing to do with them.

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It's extremely unlikely that China could just knock out the US if it wanted to.

 

One, it would be a massive military movement, much bigger than Pearl Harbor. That is pretty difficult to conceal from even the daftest intelligence agencies.

 

Two, even though the US is disliked around the world, not many countries will stand for a full scale invasion. China isn't exactly liked more than the US. In fact, the US could probably get away with attacking China.

 

Three, China has to know that a nuclear attack will lead to a nuclear response. It didn't happen in the Cold War and it won't happen with China. I'd worry more about Islamic fundamentalists, as they don't seem concerned with protecting their own assets.

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Wait wait wait, who said China will attack the US?

 

Plenty of countries in East Asia for China to attack if it became an extremist, ultranationalist regime. Moreover, with nuclear deterrents China would not be intimidated by US threats, and conventional US responses will be heavily bogged down by logistic and manpower issues. The US will be virtually powerless to stop a initial, blitzkrieg-style Chinese takeover of East Asia without resorting to nuclear war, and even if victory will eventually come ala WW2, it will be a hard fought battle that will once again darken an entire chapter of world history.

 

Destroying a nation's economy is simply never a good idea. You think human right violations are a problem now? Raise the embargo and I guarantee it'll get alot worse, not only for China but for all the nations around its sphere of influence.

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