3 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-privately-shown-serious-interest-us-ground-troops-iran-rcna262176

I'm guessing the thinking is going that since Venezuela was so easy, this will be too.

He believes in many things that aren't real, so yeah it's concerning about their strategic vision for Iran.

17 minutes ago, rjshae said:

He believes in many things that aren't real, so yeah it's concerning about their strategic vision for Iran.

as likely to happen as being distracted by the new ballroom plan

it is pointless to try and catch up with the stupidity of usa now

Split off from previous thread....

"Then I'll sign it. A pen! Und stratz mit ze uldensackt. I'll sign it! Und stratz mit sei öldensackt, il der, der flutens... , der... , der... , und strippensackt! A pen! I'll sign it. Napaloni, de grosse peanut, de cheesy ravioli. There!"

-Adenoid Hynkel

Oil prices at $108 p/b. Gulf countries starting to wind down production as they've run out of storage. Mojtada Khamenei appointed to succeed his father. Absolutely no apparent means to deescalate.

Trump must be getting sick of so much pure and unadulterated winning.

(Perhaps the only positive is watching hasbara vainly trying to maintain their narrative against a veritable tsunami of anti Trump invective. Well that and all the people poking fun at Operation Epic/Epstein/AIPAC Fur(r)y)

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Oil prices at $108 p/b. Gulf countries starting to wind down production as they've run out of storage. Mojtada Khamenei appointed to succeed his father. Absolutely no apparent means to deescalate.

Trump must be getting sick of so much pure and unadulterated winning.

(Perhaps the only positive is watching hasbara vainly trying to maintain their narrative against a veritable tsunami of anti Trump invective. Well that and all the people poking fun at Operation Epic/Epstein/AIPAC Fur(r)y)

it can get a lot worse if iran mine strait of hormuz

with big red button within the reach of moron and lunatic

one could only hope they are delusional enough to retreat and just say they win

Wouldn't be all that surprising if Iran already has mined the Straits. Or at least, 'mined' them. There will be a lot of drone type developments at play that will be broadly indistinguishable from 'mines'. Indeed, there are multiple varieties of 'mine' that have very little in common with the classic floating porcupine design. Iran is known to have rocket propelled mines, that are seabed deployed and effective from ~200m depth.

The- pretty obvious, to anyone with two brain cells to rub together- negative of sinking Iran's entire navy is that there really isn't any drawback to denying the Straits to everyone in response. It's also pretty obvious to anyone following Ukraine that a country without a conventional navy can still do a lot of damage unconventionally. Shame Trump and Hegseth have to share the same brain cell, really.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-end.html

Would be on brand for the US to walk away from this and just leave everything inflamed.

Trump being Trump he then spent the next hour contradicting himself about it ending soon.

19 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Wouldn't be all that surprising if Iran already has mined the Straits. Or at least, 'mined' them. There will be a lot of drone type developments at play that will be broadly indistinguishable from 'mines'. Indeed, there are multiple varieties of 'mine' that have very little in common with the classic floating porcupine design. Iran is known to have rocket propelled mines, that are seabed deployed and effective from ~200m depth.

The- pretty obvious, to anyone with two brain cells to rub together- negative of sinking Iran's entire navy is that there really isn't any drawback to denying the Straits to everyone in response. It's also pretty obvious to anyone following Ukraine that a country without a conventional navy can still do a lot of damage unconventionally. Shame Trump and Hegseth have to share the same brain cell, really.

Yes, I was expecting mining as well, but perhaps that's too indiscriminate. It wouldn't surprise me if they allow passage of China-bound vessels in exchange for Chinese military aid. That would cause redacted's head to explode.

While classic mines are the epitome of indiscriminate a lot of the mine adjacent stuff- slow moving, long endurance drones, remote activated non classic mines etc- would be pretty selective. It's pretty hard to hide the movement of a tanker, they're slow, large, and tend to catch fire rather nicely if you make a hole in them. You wouldn't need to hit every one either, just demonstrate you can. Or yeah, use a missile/ rocket though they'd be better saved in case Trump really is dumb enough to send the US Navy into a constrained and hostile area.

The targeting of their refineries and storage just gives them even more incentive to be indiscriminate though. In the end, China and pretty much everyone else is going to blame the US for the issues even if they get grumpy with Iran in public, since they started things off. When the Gulf States start running out of food, most of which is imported, by ship, they're going to start shouting at the US very loudly behind closed doors because the cliché about every society being three meals away from revolution is not far off, especially for one that is massively spoilt like the average native Gulf citizen. It'd be even more worrying for somewhere like the Emirates, where something like 90% of the population isn't Emirati.

They'll shout at Iran publicly; but that hasn't really changed Iran's behaviour over the past week+, and they know it won't because causing them issues so they cause the US and others issues is 100% the point. And domestically, while their leadership may be ok* with Israel and the US attacking Iran they cannot be seen to be joining in with Israel to attack fellow muslims.

*Ultimately the problems they'll have with Trump's approach is that he's constantly thrown them under the bus and in ways that a rational actor wouldn't. He's even given the lie to them being 'neutral'. Contrast Trump's reaction to Spain, or the UK to the Gulf States. Public vitriol for not being onboard for the former, crickets for the latter.

13 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-end.html

Would be on brand for the US to walk away from this and just leave everything inflamed.

that is the best case scenario one could hope for

which is why it certainly wouldn't happen

at least dubai are severely diminished by this idiotic conflict

now all the rich moron prop it up will flood to monaco or singapore instead

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz

CBS reports they are planning to do it, so who knows. Trump's response is the usual - "If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before."

They'll probably end up nuking Iran.

I'm wondering what the "victory" conditions are for this conflict? Is it a win if regime change is achieved? Are we looking for a Treaty on Iranian interests in Lebanon and Gaza? Is there a hypothetical conflict we're concerned about? Otherwise, I'm not clear what it accomplishes, other than raising gas prices and burning a lot of expensive munitions. We supposedly already destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment and tore up the nuclear treaty. Seems like it's primarily useful as a distraction from Epstein.

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz

CBS reports they are planning to do it, so who knows. Trump's response is the usual - "If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before."

They'll probably end up nuking Iran.

hope natural death come before that

otherwise everyone best enjoy modern amenity now

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

The oil price is back in the 80's range. This is to be expected because the oil price volatility is only because of risk sentiment , speculation  and supply chain issues because of Irans actions to try to deliberately cause economic chaos because they have no other effective military strategy against the US or Israel

Its cowardly but also predictable

The main point Im highlighting is the oil price will return to levels before this latest conflict because the fundamentals of global oil supply and demand haven't changed

As I mentioned before I think we will see the US ending its military  campaign in 5-6 weeks so this type of better oil price  is good news while we wait

" WTI crude futures held below $85 per barrel on Wednesday, holding a sharp decline from the previous session after reports that the International Energy Agency proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history, surpassing the 182 million barrels the group released in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil markets remained volatile amid mounting uncertainty surrounding the Iran war and shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz. After Trump said that the conflict could end soon, US officials indicated that military operations were intensifying and the chances for diplomatic talks remained slim. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also mistakenly posted a message claiming that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the narrow waterway near Iran, before the White House later clarified that no such operation had taken place. Major Middle Eastern producers have collectively reduced output by more than 6 million barrels a day as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. "

4 hours ago, rjshae said:

I'm wondering what the "victory" conditions are for this conflict? Is it a win if regime change is achieved? Are we looking for a Treaty on Iranian interests in Lebanon and Gaza? Is there a hypothetical conflict we're concerned about? Otherwise, I'm not clear what it accomplishes, other than raising gas prices and burning a lot of expensive munitions. We supposedly already destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment and tore up the nuclear treaty. Seems like it's primarily useful as a distraction from Epstein.

Trump will want to end this latest conflict where he can claim a win which is why he isnt committed to regime change because that is unrealistic and would require massive US ground resources

So a " win " to him I predict will be in 5-6 weeks where he can say they have destroyed\degraded much of Irans military infrastructure

Iran will obviously accept any ceasefire because they fighting a defensive battle

What it will mean in the long-term is Iran will be able to rearm and rebuild because the current regime is still in place with the same fundamentalist views

Thats why these latest US objectives have always been nebulous and unconvincing, you can achieve an objective of ending Iran's nuclear objectives because the IAEA can monitor this agreement but how do achieve " Iran wont be a threat to the region " or other similar rhetoric

And this confusion exists because the US has allowed itself to be influenced by the Israeli objectives