https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-date-or-location-next-round-us-brokered-peace-talks-could-change-2026-01-30/

I thought it was supposed to be for a week, but I guess 2 days is good enough

13 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The actual deaths for North Korea is likely around 100, since Kim opened a memorial for them.

You are skeptical about loses confirmed by intelligence agencies, Russians, footage and satellite images, yet you take North Korean numbers at face value...

Losses confirmed by intelligence agencies are recursive. They confirm what Ukraine claims because they are the Ukrainian claims- see also the CSIS numbers Bruce uses; they match the Ukrainian numbers for Russian casualties, they're not CSIS' own ones. They've also made some ludicrous claims like the Ukrainian counter offensive failing due to pro Russian shrubbery.

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Why would believe for a second that NK would be honest about its total deaths? It has a obvious interest in reporting its total deaths low because then the military operation was not only a success but only a "100 " soldiers died

I don't accept it, but I find that estimate to be more likely. That's partly due to the outlandish claims made by the other side for sure; it's certainly more likely than Russian soldiers wearing welding kit to burn off faces in no man's land. By its nature it would be a lower estimate.

Thinking of it as being embarrassing to have losses is a bit of a 'western' (in this case comfortable or similar might be more accurate) concept: the whole DPRK shtick is that they're in a life or death struggle with the forces of imperialism. Showing losses actually enhances that narrative and they get to show that they have friends in the struggle too. You might compare it with some of the jihadi groups which are keen to publicise suicide bombers because they believe that they've gone to heaven and will encourage others in the struggle while westerners would decry it and never once think of condoning or celebrating it.

Well, unless it's Ukrainian intelligence doing the bombing and the bomber is an innocent Azeri at least.

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

You can argue its not 4000 but that point cant be based on the evidence of a NK memorial, thats like saying " Iran is a peaceful country that respects human rights" because the Iranian state says that

Both those claims are propaganda. One is aimed at you, one isn't.

(The stills are taken from a video from North Korean TV, no timestamp since you can see all the photos in the first frame)

Grigory Yeremeev, a Russian politician said the obvious. Russia can't archive its objectives.

On 1/30/2026 at 3:23 PM, Zoraptor said:

They confirm what Ukraine claims because they are the Ukrainian claims-

Are Satelite images, video footage, video confirmed loses and even Russian themselves confirm heavy RU casualties.

Don't think anyone believes that Russian losses are light, just that their losses aren't as high as Ukraine claims, and Ukraine's aren't as low as they claim. Certainly not me, the mediazona numbers are pretty bad, their equivalent is just worse comparatively for Ukraine. Same of course holds true for Russian casualty claims, in reverse..

The 1.2 million claim is certainly recursive, ie: Ukraine claims it, media and agencies repeat it, when people question Ukraine's numbers people then reply that it's confirmed by media, think tanks and agencies.

Looks like if there was a truce on Ukraine's energy sector- and even Zelensky seems to think it was a request only in his daily briefing- it's well and truly over after last night.

Ukraine admits to 71 strikes getting through as well, which is unusual.

TL;DW - Moscow still believes that it has the right to dictate the laws, alliances, military size and might, language, and every aspect of Ukrainian society without having to pay for a very costly occupation.

I was unaware that in 2002 Putin said Ukraine had the sovereign right to join NATO because of a security decision. That really changes the argument that " Russia had to invade Ukraine because it wanted to join NATO"

“Afraid to show their society”: Moscow blocks online war casualty database that names Russia’s dead

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/13/moscow-blocks-online-war-casualty-database-that-names-russias-dead/

Note : 156,000 dead, 96,000 wounded is only what is verified, with name, surname, cause of death, location of death. The real numbers are much, much bigger because is impossible to categorize so thirdly all loses.

Russian posts from 4 years ago. Aged like milk.

State media saying that Ukrainians where surrendering on mass. And that they lost in 1h23m.

Another body exchange, this time 1000 Ukrainian to 35 Russian.

Definitely should have had the hundreds of Russians killed in Kupiansk this time, but the ratio i still in the high 20s to 1. Next time, the hundreds killed in Zaporizhia oblast maybe.

Again, Zopartor, the side that retreats has more harder time to recover bodies and RU throws Russian bodies in this exchanges.

_________________

The US could lift sanctions on more Russian oil, says Bessent.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/us-lift-sanctions-russian-oil-bessent/

The US says Russia sanctions relief is 'temporary.'

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2797644-us-says-russia-sanctions-relief-is-temporary

Last year, Russia had to sell oil at $40USD/bbl and spend resources bypassing sanctions. Now they can sell at nearly two and a half times last year's price without sanctions. For those who don't underestimate how significant it is, imagine that you get half your income from work and half from investments or landlordism. Imagine that before, you were struggling a bit to pay your bills but not close to bankruptcy. Now, you got a 3x wage increase. That is basically what happened to Russia. I wound't be surprised if they leave negotiations or demand something much, much worse than what Witkoff demanded.

Among the most "propagandists" pro-Ukrainian that I follow, near everyone is celebrating US strikes on Iran. The best analysts, like Anders Puck, worry about this war's impact on oil prices, supply chain strain of interceptor missiles, normalization of crippling demands, destabilization of the Middle East, among other variables. He also criticizes the US for having too vague and extreme objectives and no strategy on how to get them.

The body return figures are only really interesting because Ukraine claims to have recaptured a lot of land over the past few months, but the ratio of bodies returned remains in 20ish to 1 territory against them. And they have recaptured a lot of land, though much of it is land Ukraine and pro Ukraine mappers never admitted to having lost; but still, for these purposes Russia definitely hasn't been advancing at a 20:1 type ratio since maybe August(?).

I agree with most of the rest- attacking Iran is actually a disaster for Ukraine for multiple reasons; and even the positives are mostly rubbish, eg people saying Russia won't be able to import any Shaheds any more when Russia hasn't imported them since early 2024. But, Russia was never selling oil at 40USD, that's not all that much above the break even point for Saudi's sweet light oil. They'd literally literally have been losing money on every barrel pumped, not just selling below the theoretical/ nominal break even point.

That figure comes about by subtracting all the costs from the list price, then saying it's being sold at a $25 discount. That's double dipping, since you don't subtract those costs from anyone else. Most of the info is that it's being sold at roughly a $5 discount to India, which is more than enough on the amounts shipped for them to have pretty blatantly ignored the US down to saying they didn't need a sanctions waiver because they'd never stopped buying Russian oil yesterday. It's a billion dollars ++ p/a that Russia isn't getting, but that certainly ain't a third of their income.

14 hours ago, PaleElfPsion said:

Again, Zopartor, the side that retreats has more harder time to recover bodies and RU throws Russian bodies in this exchanges.

_________________

The US could lift sanctions on more Russian oil, says Bessent.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/us-lift-sanctions-russian-oil-bessent/

The US says Russia sanctions relief is 'temporary.'

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2797644-us-says-russia-sanctions-relief-is-temporary

Last year, Russia had to sell oil at $40USD/bbl and spend resources bypassing sanctions. Now they can sell at nearly two and a half times last year's price without sanctions. For those who don't underestimate how significant it is, imagine that you get half your income from work and half from investments or landlordism. Imagine that before, you were struggling a bit to pay your bills but not close to bankruptcy. Now, you got a 3x wage increase. That is basically what happened to Russia. I wound't be surprised if they leave negotiations or demand something much, much worse than what Witkoff demanded.

Among the most "propagandists" pro-Ukrainian that I follow, near everyone is celebrating US strikes on Iran. The best analysts, like Anders Puck, worry about this war's impact on oil prices, supply chain strain of interceptor missiles, normalization of crippling demands, destabilization of the Middle East, among other variables. He also criticizes the US for having too vague and extreme objectives and no strategy on how to get them.

Every war in the ME and event that causes instability causes a temporary increase in the oil price and then once the war is over the oil prices stabilizes and drops

This happens every single time because of risk sentiment, speculation and supply chain issues like Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz

The oil price doubled during the First Gulf War

Here is a link that highlights the most significant events in the ME that create this oil price increase. This will only benefit Russia temporarily because the current oil price levels will drop back to levels before this latest conflict because the fundamentals of oil supply and demand havent changed

Investopedia

History of Oil Prices

A history of the major moves in oil prices including the Arab oil embargo, First Gulf War, 2008 financial crisis, and 2020 crisis.

" First Gulf War

In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, sending the price of oil soaring from about $65 per barrel to over $90 by the next month. After a U.S.-led military coalition succeeded in removing Saddam Hussein's Iraqi forces from Kuwait in early 1991, the price fell to about $44.⁹⁴

Macrotrends. "Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart."

On 3/7/2026 at 7:05 PM, Zoraptor said:

body return figures

Again. By the 1515616855311653156156516th time. Is not a reliable metric as RU throws a lot of Russians and say that are Ukrainians, some clearly Buryat, a ethnic group very rare in Ukraine. Visual confirmation, satellite images and reports is much more reliable.

___________

What bugs me is the following. Lavrov understands that USA demands towards Iran are nothing but a pipedream and will probably backfire ( https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-it-has-seen-no-evidence-that-iran-was-developing-nuclear-weapons-2026-03-03/ ), yet, with Ukraine, somehow even worse demands. Demanding a much more crippling disarmament, demanding much more cultural impositions, in language, holidays and even street names, demanding the same level of control which a empire has towards a colony but without a costly occupation force, is somehow "essential and justified". Some vatniks even call it generous.

It is ridiculous how selectively blind Russians higher ups are...

Just like the US would need a very costly occupation and destabilizing occupation to enforce Trump demands, Russia would need a very costly and destabilizing occupation.

That's been gone through 1515616855311653156156516 times that Ukraine claimed that without actual evidence, let alone proof; and the numbers they claimed barely shifted the dial. The point of the claim was simply to muddy the waters so people would state it as fact. No other reason.

Indeed, it's very easy to tell that the vast majority are genuine dead Ukrainians. Ukraine tried to renege on the body swap deal back in June 2025, and was forced to back down when Russia started publicly listing the identification of those they were going to return. Which of course Ukraine objected to, because it'd make it impossible to reject them; and because it generated enough outrage from the relatives that they had to back down. That would hardly work if they were actually all unknown soldiers- and especially would not if they were unidentified Russians. You'd have heard nothing but shouting from the Ukrainian side about how the Russians were publishing false lists and they'd trot out families non stop to complain; all shown in great detail in the western press. Which simply has not happened. They just said it was fake and hoped that would be enough.

The whole point of Russia returning them is that Ukraine simply will not pay out benefits for 'missing', only dead, so they have an absolute motive for returning genuine and identifiable bodies. It costs Ukraine a great deal of money.

Again, every country inflate enemy loses in war. And is not " without actual evidence, let alone proof", is corroborated by Russians themselves. Murz got "suicided" once he admitted taking heavy loses. And by satellite images and video footage.

That said, Colombians, the ones who are deployed often to the most dangerous areas of the frontlines have roughly 10% KIA.

NK sappers?

What do you guys think would be the most pro-Russian deal that Ukrainian leadership might accept? I'm not talking about what is acceptable for the average tankie/vatnik or defeatist that takes Mr. Cringeface, Willy AOM, and other analysts that make more false apocalyptic predictions than doomsday prophets. The deal must be acceptable for guys that command forces like Denys Prokopenko and Fire Point investors, not online tankies.

My guess: an absolute NO. They would not accept even if Kyiv were encircled(ie - any of this demands would require not only total military victory but also ongoing occupation) :

• Destroy the defense base of Ukraine and unilaterally break ties with all western investors. Crippling disarmament is incredibly destabilizing even for countries less militarized than Ukraine. It would bankrupt not only the defense sector but also engine companies(Motor Sich, Luch)and cascade into mass bankruptions.

• Legalization of commie symbols and forcing pro-Soviet historical revisionism onto Ukrainians

• Russian language is the official language in WHOLE Ukraine.

• Hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened veterans unemployed due to a worse-than-Versailles army cap

• Russia with control over Ukraine's constitution and foreign relations.

What Ukraine might accept:

• A ceasefire at current borders plus referendums in Dongabe with votes counted by a third party, not by Russia

• Russian language as an official language in the regions that voted for Yuri Boyko in the last election.

• Removing the NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees that are not Budapest Memorandum tier. Like UN peacekeeping forces.

Anything more pro RU than this and not even besieging Kyiv would grant it to Russia. Russia would need to maintain a costly full occupation for anything involving the "absolute NO"

Edited April 4Apr 4 by PaleElfPsion

Not at the point that it matters yet. Anything the Ukrainians could realistically offer- and what's listed is pretty close to what everyone says Ukraine has been offering- is not enough for the Russians to realistically accept. So things will continue.

I'd be less than convinced that the main obstacles to peace would be Ukrainian soldiers though. It's not 2022, most of them are not volunteers, and a lot are not there voluntarily in any meaning of the term. If anything that makes it less likely that the more... pagan symbol enthusiast elements could decide to derail things.

Politically it'd be very hard to win an election running on a realistic peace deal though since it would involve compromises that would annoy everyone.

Most of the new recruits aren't volunteers. But no way does Ukraine have a 100% KIA ratio; I doubt that it is 10%, considering how we have over a thousand Brazilians fighting for Ukraine and only 22 confirmed dead (src in pt). Hence, there are a lot of people that have fought against Russia since 2014. And near all of the Azov leadership, Andriy Biletsky and Denis Prokopenko are alive, and they do command a lot of people that see Ukraine getting any pro-RU government as a one-way ticket to a show trial and life sentence in a gulag, like happened with many Azovstal defenders. They and a lot of wealthy people would never accept any form of "Ukraine defenseless" and note that this ends up bankrupting nations.

The problem is that Russian demands NEVER lead to realistic peace. Less harsh demilitarization and humiliation radicalized all of Germany, economists like Keynes warned. Note that Versailles didn't want to force Germans to worship people that genocided Germans, like Moscow wants to force Ukrainians to allow Soviet symbols. Didn't wanted to ban Germany for having stuff like "pipe missiles".

Edited April 8Apr 8 by PaleElfPsion

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnv8l99r3yyo

I know this is few days old but the EU has approved the €90 billion loan for Ukraine. The moment Orban was removed it was agreed on

So well done to the EU !!!

Whats also interesting is Ukraine has been able to reopen its oil pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary

So good news all around

"Ukraine says it has resumed pumping Russian oil through a pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia, bringing to an end months of deadlock over a €90bn (£78bn) loan seen as vital European Union support for Kyiv.

Soon afterwards, EU ambassadors meeting in Brussels gave preliminary approval to the loan, as well as a 20th package of sanctions on Russia, officials said."

Ukraine blew that pipeline up literally the next day, Bruce.

Despite this being reported on from the Economist I find it almost impossible to believe

It is hilarious though, can you imagine Putin actually coming up with this and selling out Russia nationalism to American Capitalism

But whats more ridiculous is the suggestion that Russia would sell out China and BRICS ideology

The war in Ukraine cant be going THAT badly for Russia, surly not ???