https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-date-or-location-next-round-us-brokered-peace-talks-could-change-2026-01-30/

I thought it was supposed to be for a week, but I guess 2 days is good enough

13 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The actual deaths for North Korea is likely around 100, since Kim opened a memorial for them.

You are skeptical about loses confirmed by intelligence agencies, Russians, footage and satellite images, yet you take North Korean numbers at face value...

Losses confirmed by intelligence agencies are recursive. They confirm what Ukraine claims because they are the Ukrainian claims- see also the CSIS numbers Bruce uses; they match the Ukrainian numbers for Russian casualties, they're not CSIS' own ones. They've also made some ludicrous claims like the Ukrainian counter offensive failing due to pro Russian shrubbery.

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Why would believe for a second that NK would be honest about its total deaths? It has a obvious interest in reporting its total deaths low because then the military operation was not only a success but only a "100 " soldiers died

I don't accept it, but I find that estimate to be more likely. That's partly due to the outlandish claims made by the other side for sure; it's certainly more likely than Russian soldiers wearing welding kit to burn off faces in no man's land. By its nature it would be a lower estimate.

Thinking of it as being embarrassing to have losses is a bit of a 'western' (in this case comfortable or similar might be more accurate) concept: the whole DPRK shtick is that they're in a life or death struggle with the forces of imperialism. Showing losses actually enhances that narrative and they get to show that they have friends in the struggle too. You might compare it with some of the jihadi groups which are keen to publicise suicide bombers because they believe that they've gone to heaven and will encourage others in the struggle while westerners would decry it and never once think of condoning or celebrating it.

Well, unless it's Ukrainian intelligence doing the bombing and the bomber is an innocent Azeri at least.

12 hours ago, BruceVC said:

You can argue its not 4000 but that point cant be based on the evidence of a NK memorial, thats like saying " Iran is a peaceful country that respects human rights" because the Iranian state says that

Both those claims are propaganda. One is aimed at you, one isn't.

(The stills are taken from a video from North Korean TV, no timestamp since you can see all the photos in the first frame)

Grigory Yeremeev, a Russian politician said the obvious. Russia can't archive its objectives.

On 1/30/2026 at 3:23 PM, Zoraptor said:

They confirm what Ukraine claims because they are the Ukrainian claims-

Are Satelite images, video footage, video confirmed loses and even Russian themselves confirm heavy RU casualties.

Don't think anyone believes that Russian losses are light, just that their losses aren't as high as Ukraine claims, and Ukraine's aren't as low as they claim. Certainly not me, the mediazona numbers are pretty bad, their equivalent is just worse comparatively for Ukraine. Same of course holds true for Russian casualty claims, in reverse..

The 1.2 million claim is certainly recursive, ie: Ukraine claims it, media and agencies repeat it, when people question Ukraine's numbers people then reply that it's confirmed by media, think tanks and agencies.

Looks like if there was a truce on Ukraine's energy sector- and even Zelensky seems to think it was a request only in his daily briefing- it's well and truly over after last night.

Ukraine admits to 71 strikes getting through as well, which is unusual.

TL;DW - Moscow still believes that it has the right to dictate the laws, alliances, military size and might, language, and every aspect of Ukrainian society without having to pay for a very costly occupation.

I was unaware that in 2002 Putin said Ukraine had the sovereign right to join NATO because of a security decision. That really changes the argument that " Russia had to invade Ukraine because it wanted to join NATO"

“Afraid to show their society”: Moscow blocks online war casualty database that names Russia’s dead

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/13/moscow-blocks-online-war-casualty-database-that-names-russias-dead/

Note : 156,000 dead, 96,000 wounded is only what is verified, with name, surname, cause of death, location of death. The real numbers are much, much bigger because is impossible to categorize so thirdly all loses.

Russian posts from 4 years ago. Aged like milk.

State media saying that Ukrainians where surrendering on mass. And that they lost in 1h23m.

Another body exchange, this time 1000 Ukrainian to 35 Russian.

Definitely should have had the hundreds of Russians killed in Kupiansk this time, but the ratio i still in the high 20s to 1. Next time, the hundreds killed in Zaporizhia oblast maybe.

Again, Zopartor, the side that retreats has more harder time to recover bodies and RU throws Russian bodies in this exchanges.

_________________

The US could lift sanctions on more Russian oil, says Bessent.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/us-lift-sanctions-russian-oil-bessent/

The US says Russia sanctions relief is 'temporary.'

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2797644-us-says-russia-sanctions-relief-is-temporary

Last year, Russia had to sell oil at $40USD/bbl and spend resources bypassing sanctions. Now they can sell at nearly two and a half times last year's price without sanctions. For those who don't underestimate how significant it is, imagine that you get half your income from work and half from investments or landlordism. Imagine that before, you were struggling a bit to pay your bills but not close to bankruptcy. Now, you got a 3x wage increase. That is basically what happened to Russia. I wound't be surprised if they leave negotiations or demand something much, much worse than what Witkoff demanded.

Among the most "propagandists" pro-Ukrainian that I follow, near everyone is celebrating US strikes on Iran. The best analysts, like Anders Puck, worry about this war's impact on oil prices, supply chain strain of interceptor missiles, normalization of crippling demands, destabilization of the Middle East, among other variables. He also criticizes the US for having too vague and extreme objectives and no strategy on how to get them.

The body return figures are only really interesting because Ukraine claims to have recaptured a lot of land over the past few months, but the ratio of bodies returned remains in 20ish to 1 territory against them. And they have recaptured a lot of land, though much of it is land Ukraine and pro Ukraine mappers never admitted to having lost; but still, for these purposes Russia definitely hasn't been advancing at a 20:1 type ratio since maybe August(?).

I agree with most of the rest- attacking Iran is actually a disaster for Ukraine for multiple reasons; and even the positives are mostly rubbish, eg people saying Russia won't be able to import any Shaheds any more when Russia hasn't imported them since early 2024. But, Russia was never selling oil at 40USD, that's not all that much above the break even point for Saudi's sweet light oil. They'd literally literally have been losing money on every barrel pumped, not just selling below the theoretical/ nominal break even point.

That figure comes about by subtracting all the costs from the list price, then saying it's being sold at a $25 discount. That's double dipping, since you don't subtract those costs from anyone else. Most of the info is that it's being sold at roughly a $5 discount to India, which is more than enough on the amounts shipped for them to have pretty blatantly ignored the US down to saying they didn't need a sanctions waiver because they'd never stopped buying Russian oil yesterday. It's a billion dollars ++ p/a that Russia isn't getting, but that certainly ain't a third of their income.