9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Their defence budget alone is meant to be ~60$bn, annually.

Which sounds ridiculous and is, but may actually be an underestimate of the true cost. A 4 unit Patriot battery has around 400$mn (!) worth of pac-3s loaded (16 units/ launcher, 6mn per rocket. Not quite as bad as it sounds, it's 10 million for the old pac-2s, if you're Saudi Arabia). Firing them off once a week would be 20bn, alone; and Ukraine has more than one battery. Even if you go back to the cheapest pac-3 cost listed it's still ~13bn to fire one battery off weekly. That's partly why Europe has been so awful at ramping up actual production: it costs monumental amounts of money to make and run the fancy gear which everyone in the west has been conditioned to think is necessary. Then your 30mn euro shiny new Leo2 gets popped by a $300 drone using a $50 cold war era rpg warhead for everyone to see.

The money overall pays everything from salaries for teachers- and soldiers- to generators to keep the lights running. The 'funny' thing is that 45bn p/a isn't even close to enough. It covers the theoretical budget deficit, but is only about 2/3 of the amount actually needed. And of course it's for two years. In two years time they'll need another 90bn. 

Talking about AI and fake news, I thought   Pokrovsk had fallen to Russia weeks ago? Didnt Putin himself claim this and a Russian flag was hosted 

The one thing I have learnt about this war is not to believe any of the " updates "  from either side until its confirmed and thats weeks later

But I am still surprised by the Pokrovsk false narrative because even several Western media houses were repeating this 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/12/19/moscows-narrative-wobbles-as-ukraine-takes-back-kupiansk

 

Well yeah, everything is going swimmingly for Ukraine, according to Ukraine. Russia has definitely gone backwards in Kupiansk, but meh. I'm not a doom and gloomer claiming Ukraine is finished; they can generally hold areas they really want or need to, still. Just at the expense of other places- in this case Vovchansk, Siversk and Huliapole. And yes, Pokrovsk and Mirnograd.

Really though, acritically repeating Ukraine's casualty claims is at this point extremely shonky reporting. At best. The latest body exchange via the red cross this week was 1003 Ukrainians to 26 Russians. Of course the actual ratio isn't 40:1 in Russia's favour but there really really isn't an explanation for that ratio- which has been pretty consistent for 18 months- which doesn't involve Ukraine either lying about retreating, or lying about the casualties it's inflicting/ receiving. Or both.

The satellite imagery on the attack on the sub was also pretty conclusive that it was a clean miss. You can bet if it were a conclusive hit he'd have the satellite images in the article but it clearly hit the pier about 20m away from the sub. Still embarrassing, but if embarrassment was enough Ukraine would have won in 2022.

Edited December 21, 2025Dec 21 by Zoraptor

The reports of 360k RF troops chilling in Belarus were funny though. Timed just for the decision to cut Ukraine a cheque, too. 

Seeing NAFO types praising Kapustin is pretty funny, given the guy has a Schengen ban. 

Hm, Stephen Miller would cry for him.

NAFO types think tricking the intellectually disabled into planting bombs and then blowing themselves up is fine, so long as it kills Russian police as well. They think using an Azeri truck driver to deliver a bomb and getting him blown up is fine, so long as it's targeting the Kerch Bridge. And yes, they shed tears for a literal literal Russian nazi, so long as he's fighting for Ukraine and killing Russians. There's pretty clearly quite literally nothing they wouldn't excuse so long as it results in dead Russians. They are the living (eh, rather a lot are most certainly bots) embodiment of 'no bad tactics, only bad targets'; many have a previous record of supporting ISIS, when it targets Russians. It is thus utterly unsurprising that most of them are absolutely fine with dead Palestinian children, tortured Palestinian prisoners etc etc. Not very high quality human beings, to be sure.

Fair chance Kapustin got whacked by his own side anyway. His organisation was largely irrelevant once the figment of the Belgorod incursions being home grown was gone, and he personally was embarrassing. Plus if there were a peace agreement he'd be an excellent chance for trying to mess it up. Always a good candidate for an 'unfortunate accident' as happened with a number of pro Russian militia leaders.

So apparently White Rex is alive, it was a fake to scam the bounty on him.  Bit weird, and shame that racist POS still lives 

Kind of appropriate for Bandera's birth day. You'd have to suspect the timing was deliberate.

I very much doubt they got any bounty. For all the talk about fooling the Russians the response from them was very muted. Not sure it even got any official comment at all? and most of the unofficial comment was equivocal about whether he was even dead or not.

I'd be surprised if russia would pay out anything unless you literally send them his head. 

Another Oreshnik* strike on something in Lviv. At least 6 submunitions, and a fairly impressive fire started by the looks of things. Timing is probably as interesting as the target (best guess so far is natural gas storage).

*basically an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile without the nuclear payload. The submunitions are solely kinetic as at the speed they travel- ~6km/s- an explosive payload is essentially redundant. Pretty well known that it was coming, though not where exactly, as such launches are Notified so avoid people thinking it's a first strike and the US embassy issued a warning about a major incoming strike like last time.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/01/09/russia-hit-ukraine-using-hypersonic-oreschnik-missile_6749241_4.html

Poor headline aside.  

"The strikes came in response to a December attack on the residence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which Russia blamed on Ukraine." I thought everyone agreed already this never actually happened.

14 minutes ago, Lexx said:

"The strikes came in response to a December attack on the residence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which Russia blamed on Ukraine." I thought everyone agreed already this never actually happened.

What does that matter these days 

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

"The strikes came in response to a December attack on the residence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which Russia blamed on Ukraine." I thought everyone agreed already this never actually happened.

It certainly wasn't the actual reason for using Oreshnik.

However, that definition of 'everyone' also agreed that Russia blew up Nordstream. Which, now, pretty much everyone agrees wasn't Russia. A pretty large proportion of that 'everyone' also decided that Russia blew up the Kerch Bridge as a false flag as well, which also wasn't Russia. 

(As per usual there was a certain amount of hilarity watching media report Zelensky's "may he perish" Christmas speech; then a few days later acting as if Zelensky trying to hit a Putin residence was just unthinkable. Gold fish have longer memories)

Kadyrov keeps dying and resurrecting to being near death.  

The thing about repeatedly reporting someone is dead or on the brink of death is that you will inevitably be correct, and most people will only remember that instance instead of all the times you were wrong previous.

Kadyrov has some way to go to better his compatriot Omar al-Shishani who got blown up 4 times by the US, or Ibrahim al-Douri who died 5 times including the (still supposed, though it was his side making the announcement so more likely) real time.

What bugs me in the "Ukraine must capitulate crowd" is that they don't understand that Russia wants absolute control over everything about Ukraine. Its language, laws, foreign policy, borders, military capabilities, military size, and even street names. IE—Russia wants to have the same control that an empire has towards its colonies without having to maintain an expensive occupation force.

Even if Russia wins, such demands can only be enforced by full occupation; pretending otherwise is silly. It would be like if I wanted to live like Dan Bilzerian without spending huge sums of money.

On 12/21/2025 at 3:53 AM, Zoraptor said:

which doesn't involve Ukraine either lying about retreating, or lying about the casualties it's inflicting/ receiving. Or both.

EVERY country inflate enemy deaths in the war.

However, if you go by visually confirmed casualties, the ratio is 4:1 in favor of Ukraine. However, visual confirmation tends to downplay where RU has the greatest advantage, ie - artillery. So no one knows how are the casualty rates.

That said, Russian lies are much worse than merely inflating numbers. Didn't they claimed to occupied Pokrovsk like 6 times?

Think it's just a case of them not caring and being bored of the war not understanding what capitulation means. They forget it's not a war in Africa, or something

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Think it's just a case of them not caring and being bored of the war not understanding what capitulation means. They forget it's not a war in Africa, or something

Yep.

They don't think what would happen if Ukraine capitulates.

They implicitly assume:

• Demobilization is administratively smooth

• Economies can shrink without exploding

• Armed, radicalized populations will politely accept unemployment and humiliation

• Symbols, language, and memory politics are “cosmetic issues”

This is ahistorical thinking. In Masada (73 AD), Jews chose mass suicide over disarmament. Zulus at Isandlwana (1879) at a much smaller number, without firearms, fought against the hegemonic power at that time (the British) when the British demanded disarmament. Those aren't easy demands. Would have extreme consequences. For eg, giving so many territory incurs plus the "demilitarization" requiring the destruction of teh Ukrainian defense industry and all ties with European investors would bankrupt Ukraine. Plus hundreds of thousands of now unemployed armed dudes that have no job due the Weimar style demilitarization, Russian and commie symbols being forced into Lviv, Ukraine would have to become a diehard police state while bankrupting itself and defaulting. Two things would happen if Ukraine capitulates.
1 - The largest refugee crisis of human history in two huge waves. After capitulation, a huge wave. After the consequences of capitulation comes, a much larger wave. Estonian former president speculated in 25 million refugees.

2 - Europe destabilized and a much worse war coming.

Destabilization happens every time that Carthaginian peace terms are imposed into someone. From Carthage to Weimar Germany. Multiple economists from Keynes to Mises warned that Versailles in particular demilitarization and cultural impositions(war guilty clauses) which are much less severe than RU demands would destabilize Europe. Yet to appease some French hardlines, it was imposed upon Germany. Germany become radicalized and launched the most devastating war in human history as a result of less serious demilitarization and humiliation.

4 hours ago, PaleElfPsion said:

EVERY country inflate enemy deaths in the war.

However, if you go by visually confirmed casualties, the ratio is 4:1 in favor of Ukraine. However, visual confirmation tends to downplay where RU has the greatest advantage, ie - artillery. So no one knows how are the casualty rates.

The issue isn't really that Ukraine lies about casualties- Russia most certainly does as well- it's more that their claims tend to be accepted without much if any criticism even when they don't make any real sense. That is done in part for 'morale' reasons, for want of a better word, but it does lead to unrealistic expectations among the general population and, if their statements are taken at face value, among intelligence agencies etc who repeat them. Ironically, doesn't seem to have that much effect in Ukraine itself, where war enthusiasm has clearly dropped massively since 2022.

Probably the best measure, at least in the sense that it's broadly speaking independent and any biases should be similar is the monitoring of formal obituaries and social media obituaries carried out by mediazona and ualosses. That comes out with a close to 1:1 ratio, albeit with a lot of the Ukrainian losses technically listed as 'missing' rather than dead; and it's obviously an underestimate of true numbers but should be a similar underestimate for both sides.

Since it's current and fairly relevant, the latest body exchange yesterday was 1000 Ukrainian to 38 Russian. There are plenty of reasons to accept that the real casualty rate isn't 25:1 in Russia's favour of course, not least that the war would be over if it was, but also this is over a time period where Ukraine claimed to kill hundreds of Russians in Kupiansk, a city they'd recaptured so should have been able to claim most bodies from.

most people outside of eu just doesn't care anymore

the more eu trying to sell the issue on principle or moral the less people care about it

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Since it's current and fairly relevant, the latest body exchange yesterday was 1000 Ukrainian to 38 Russian.

False. Russia send Russian bodies saying that are Ukrainain bodies ( https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-received-at-least-20-bodies-of-russian-soldiers-in-recent-exchanges-zelenskyy-says/ ) besides, Ukraine constantly retreats, which makes retrieving bodies much harder.

That said, you depics heavy casualties as something which only Ukraine claims. Russians like Strelkov, Vladimir Chirkin, Murz, Prigozhin, and Maxim Kalashnikov, ALL said that Russia is taking heavy loses. Murz in particular got "suicided" after exposing heavy loses. Strelkov, jailed.

1 hour ago, uuuhhii said:

he more eu trying to sell the issue on principle or moral the less people care about

EU should be more clear about consequences of Russia victory. Not talk about morals.

11 minutes ago, PaleElfPsion said:

False. Russia send Russian bodies saying that are Ukrainain bodies ( https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-received-at-least-20-bodies-of-russian-soldiers-in-recent-exchanges-zelenskyy-says/ ) besides, Ukraine constantly retreats, which makes retrieving bodies much harder.

Even if Zelensky were telling the truth- and he may well be, twenty if not an unreasonable number given that some bodies will be hard to identify and he used the plural exchanges so it would be over thousands of returnees- that would barely shift the ratio- eg to ~ 16:1 if we applied it to the last batch- which is not really significant. That's also why the recent exchange was interesting; it should include the casualties Ukraine claimed from Kupiansk, since they did advance there, and claimed hundreds of Russian dead, and should have been able to recover their bodies after advancing. Instead, it wasn't much different from previous times; about twice the number of Russians but in absolute terms only ~20 more.

As previous, I personally tend towards the obituary approach being most accurate, at least in terms of the trends between the two.

Edited Thursday at 07:21 PM1 day by Zoraptor

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Even if Zelensky were telling the truth

Again, no one is taking Zelensky numbers seriously.

I'm taking visual confirmed numbers from Andrew Perpetua and Oryx seriously. And data from Russians like Strelkov, Vladimir Chirkin, Murz, Prigozhin, and Maxim Kalashnikov seriously, alongside analysts like Anders Puck. According to Oryx :

Category	Russian Losses (Confirmed)	Ukrainian Losses (Confirmed)	Ratio (RU:UA)
Tanks	~3,000+	1,386	~2-3:1
IFVs	~5,000+	1,532	~3-4:1
APCs/MRAPs	~4,000+	509+	~4-8:1
Total Armor	~12,000-15,000+	~5,500	~3:1

And disagree about Obituaries. People that just get MIA or are not registered as dead by its officers wouldn't end in obituaries.

To have a notion on how great Anders Puck is, look what he posted at January 2022. He not only predicted the invasion but also predicted maximalist objectives and that the war wouldn't go as RU predicted. Later, on the video "Russia's new forever war in Ukraine, 11MAR2022" he predicted a very long war.

Russia has multiple times more manpower. Also has help from North Koreans, Cubans and many other allies. If Ukraine was not inflicting much more casualties, Russia would already have defeated Ukrainian army.

The actual deaths for North Korea is likely around 100, since Kim opened a memorial for them. You can count how many pictures there are in the videos (though CNN doesn't, and repeats the claim of 4000 casualties). It's probably better than claims based on the Russians going out under fire to blowtorch dead koreans to hide numbers, which was an actual scenario proposed for the low apparent casualties compared to claimed.

Oryx has the same problem that video footage has when assigning casualties: it has to be videoed/ pictured, and the Ukrainians are far more likely to do that. They also, well, aren't unbiased

Missing is a category for Ukraine because there are a lot of people 'missing': it's cheaper than admitting that the people are dead, since dying in service elicits a payout. Ukraine itself admits to a bit less than 60k in that category (which is distinct from the two 'deserter' categories of AWOL and not reporting). Not like Russia is being 'nice' handing over bodies; it's returning corpses because they know it costs Ukraine a lot of money when they go from missing to confirmed dead.

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

The actual deaths for North Korea is likely around 100, since Kim opened a memorial for them. You can count how many pictures there are in the videos (though CNN doesn't, and repeats the claim of 4000 casualties). It's probably better than claims based on the Russians going out under fire to blowtorch dead koreans to hide numbers, which was an actual scenario proposed for the low apparent casualties compared to claimed.

Oryx has the same problem that video footage has when assigning casualties: it has to be videoed/ pictured, and the Ukrainians are far more likely to do that. They also, well, aren't unbiased

Missing is a category for Ukraine because there are a lot of people 'missing': it's cheaper than admitting that the people are dead, since dying in service elicits a payout. Ukraine itself admits to a bit less than 60k in that category (which is distinct from the two 'deserter' categories of AWOL and not reporting). Not like Russia is being 'nice' handing over bodies; it's returning corpses because they know it costs Ukraine a lot of money when they go from missing to confirmed dead.

Why would believe for a second that NK would be honest about its total deaths? It has a obvious interest in reporting its total deaths low because then the military operation was not only a success but only a "100 " soldiers died

You can argue its not 4000 but that point cant be based on the evidence of a NK memorial, thats like saying " Iran is a peaceful country that respects human rights" because the Iranian state says that

Also how did you count 100, I didnt see a single photo where you can see all the pictures?

CSIS has released a new report on the war and they say Russia has had 1.2 million casualties but this link has other interesting analysis on the war so its worth a read

Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economi